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The 23 Players Who Can Win The Masters

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Last year, I created a filter to help predict the golfers that were most likely to win the Masters. I got the list down to 23 players. In the end, eight of the top-10 finishers were on that list of 23 players that included the eventual winner Adam Scott and runner-up Angel Cabrera.

Before I discuss my picks of this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes versus the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in score exists. Going into last year, the critical holes were Nos. 7, 12, 15, 17 and 18. However, after last year, the data is trending differently and now the critical holes are Nos. 7, 12, 13 and 18. With the Eisenhower Tree and some other trees down after the winter storms this year, I would suspect that No. 17 will be easier and it may be a long time before the 17th is a critical hole at the Masters again. Either way, I would watch out for this new set of critical holes as the tournament goes along.

Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the past champions who are well past their time being competitive and the amateurs.

  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (amateur)
  • Oliver Goss (amateur)
  • Chang-Woo Lee (amateur)
  • Michael McCoy (amateur)
  • Jordan Niebrugge (amateur)
  • Garrick Porteous (amateur)
  • Fred Couples (past champion)
  • Ben Crenshaw (past champion)
  • Bernhard Langer (past champion)
  • Sandy Lyle (past champion)
  • Mark O’Meara (past champion)
  • Larry Mize (past champion)
  • Jose Maria Olazabal (past champion)
  • Craig Stadler (past champion)
  • Tom Watson (past champion)
  • Mike Weir (past champion)
  • Ian Woosnam (past champion)

I also eliminated any first time invitees, as the only first time invitee to ever win at Augusta was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

  • Jonas Blixt
  • Steven Bowditch
  • Roberto Castro
  • Brendon de Jonge
  • Graham DeLaet
  • Victor Dubuisson
  • Harris English
  • Derek Ernst
  • Matt Every
  • Steven Gallacher
  • Billy Horschel
  • Matt Jones
  • Chris Kirk
  • Joost Luiten
  • Patrick Reed
  • Jordan Spieth
  • Kevin Stadler
  • Jimmy Walker

I will say that this group of 1st time invitees is one of the strongest in recent memory with golfers like Bowditch, DeLaet, English, Ernst, Every, Horschel, Jones, Kirk, Reed, Spieth, Stadler and Walker all appearing to be good fits for Augusta National. So, if there is ever a year where somebody may break the first time invitee curse, this is it.

I also eliminated the players who missed the cut at the Shell Houston Open this week because historically the odds of a player missing the cut the previous week and winning the next week are extremely slim. Those players include:

  • Darren Clarke
  • Peter Hanson
  • Trevor Immelman
  • Dustin Johnson
  • Martin Kaymer
  • Louis Oosthuizen
  • Ian Poulter
  • Scott Stallings
  • Kevin Streelman

I also eliminated John Senden, as he has only made the cut once in three tries Augusta and the odds of winning go way down for golfers that have struggled to make the cut at the course.

I also filtered out the European and Asian players on which I do not have substantial data:

  • Francesco Molinari
  • Thongchai Jaidee
  • Thomas Bjorn
  • Jamie Donaldson
  • Thorbjorn Olesen

Over the past 10 years, Augusta National has heavily favored longer hitters that hit the ball high and well from what I call ‘”The Danger Zone.” The Danger Zone is all approach shots from 175-to-225 yards, and it is biggest key to Augusta National, because without quality Danger Zone play at the Masters the golfer will not be successful.

While Augusta National is known for its greens, the make percentage on putts is fairly high from inside 15 feet; likely due to the excellent putting surfaces. The real difficulty on the greens at Augusta is from longer than 20 feet away. Between the undulations and the super-fast green speed, it becomes a task to not three-putt the long ones at Augusta. The big reason why long hitters do so well at Augusta now is that the course plays like a par 68 for them, and that allows them to get away with putting worse. So, if a player is not long, they had better bring good putting and Danger Zone play with them.

Moving on with the list, I eliminated players who I think are too short to play well at Augusta National. They include:

  • Tim Clark
  • Jim Furyk
  • Zach Johnson
  • David Lynn
  • KJ Choi

While Zach Johnson is a previous champion, he also won in a year where there were record low temperatures. This helped Johnson because the longer hitters could not play the par-5’s like a par-4 and that shifted the advantage toward him and his excellent wedge play. Unless there are either cold or wet conditions, I highly doubt the players I just listed stand much of a chance of winning.

I’ve also taken out the low-ball hitters off my list of potential winners. They include:

  • Sang-Moon Bae
  • Jason Dufner
  • Ken Duke
  • Branden Grace
  • Miguel Jimenez
  • Matteo Manassero
  • Graeme McDowell
  • D.A. Points
  • Boo Weekley
  • Y.E. Yang

That leads me to filtering out the last group of players who have struggled from the Danger Zone this year. They are:

  • Lucas Glover
  • Ernie Els
  • Rickie Fowler
  • Bill Haas
  • Russell Henley
  • John Huh
  • Ryan Moore
  • Webb Simpson
  • Lee Westwood

That leaves me with the 23 players who can win the Masters. They are listed alphabetically.

  1. Keegan Bradley
  2. Angel Cabrera
  3. Stewart Cink
  4. Jason Day
  5. Luke Donald
  6. Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
  7. Sergio Garcia
  8. Matt Kuchar
  9. Marc Leishman
  10. Hunter Mahan
  11. Hideki Matsuyama
  12. Rory McIlroy
  13. Phil Mickelson
  14. Justin Rose
  15. Charl Schwartzel
  16. Adam Scott
  17. Vijay Singh
  18. Brandt Snedeker
  19. Henrik Stenson
  20. Steve Stricker
  21. Nick Watney
  22. Bubba Watson
  23. Gary Woodland

Of those 23 players, here are my top-10 picks to win The Masters:

  • Rory McIlroy (9/1)*
  • Adam Scott (9/1)
  • Phil Mickelson (11/1)
  • Jason Day (14/1)
  • Matt Kuchar (20/1)
  • Bubba Watson (25/1)
  • Justin Rose (28/1)
  • Brandt Snedeker (33/1)
  • Keegan Bradley (33/1)
  • Marc Leishman (100/1)

*Odds from Bovada accurate as of 4/7/14 at 11 a.m.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

86 Comments

86 Comments

  1. In Ly Nhua Nap Cau

    Jan 2, 2019 at 10:46 am

    Very informative and interesting article. Well done.

    Love Leishman as a surprise pick.

  2. mua c?n h? safira khang ?i?n

    Aug 25, 2018 at 4:13 am

    Very informative and interesting article. Well done.
    Love Leishman as a surprise pick.

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    Oct 8, 2014 at 4:39 am

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    • c?n h? sapphire

      Jul 11, 2018 at 12:55 pm

      thought this was a great read and the more i read it the more i liked it . this week its so falling to place that rory ,phil and adam scott are the three to watch but if you want a hint of form –bradley ,scott and big phil are the three that you should take a dart and stick the wage packet on one of them

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  6. Bubba W., Orlando

    Apr 14, 2014 at 6:40 pm

    Great performances by Spieth, Blixt, Kuchar and Langer

    • Bubba W., Orlando

      Apr 14, 2014 at 6:43 pm

      btw, isnt it amazing to see Langer and Couples still doing so well against the young guns?

  7. DavePelz4

    Apr 14, 2014 at 5:35 pm

    Technically, there have been 3 first time winners. Horton Smith won the very first Invitational tournament held at ANGC. Gene Sarazen also was a winner in his first tournament.

  8. cole

    Apr 13, 2014 at 8:33 pm

    Nice Top tens. Picking three of ten seems good to me!

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 14, 2014 at 1:38 pm

      Thanks. The winner was more important to me. The editor, Zak, asked me who I had and I picked Bubba.

      I also stated that I thought this was the best group of 1st time invitees we had since I can remember. I think the 1st time invitee curse is mostly due to the hoopla and hysteria of going to the Masters for the first time. Even if you’ve played the course before, the actual tournament is a different story. I think the other part behind the curse is that there is a lot of pressure of winning the Masters for the first time combined with the likelihood of it being your first major championship victory.

  9. bigbadbullfrog

    Apr 11, 2014 at 11:38 am

    “Keegan Bradley has a major under his belt. I think he has more than the stomach for it. In fact, I think he screams ‘GET IN MY BELLY!’” SMH. He’s saying ‘get in my belly’ to the weekend breakfast special at Waffle House because he certainly isn’t making the cut.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 11, 2014 at 3:47 pm

      And Zach Johnson doesn’t appear to be making the cut either. The main point is that saying Keegan doesn’t have the stomach to win a major…..and he’s already won a major doesn’t make much sense.

  10. Dennis

    Apr 9, 2014 at 10:00 pm

    Very solid list. Sure the winner is in.
    I will follow the frenchie Dubuisson, he was just amazing at the WGC Matchplay Championship.

  11. Kevin McGarrahan

    Apr 9, 2014 at 5:01 pm

    I would not count out Patrick Reed. Although it is his first time at the Masters, it is not his first time playing Augusta National. He attended Augusta State University and played some of his collegiate golf at Augusta. That gives him a large advantage over all the other first timers.

    • Rich

      Apr 11, 2014 at 10:06 pm

      Yes it certainly seemed to help him…………………….

    • brad

      May 1, 2014 at 8:02 am

      Honestly I don’t see him as a fixture. I think he’ll play well every few years, but then remain in that 60-70 bracket in the world ranks. Attitude is everything, and he lacks it. He did play well for a few weeks though.

  12. Denis Larkin

    Apr 9, 2014 at 6:33 am

    thought this was a great read and the more i read it the more i liked it . this week its so falling to place that rory ,phil and adam scott are the three to watch but if you want a hint of form –bradley ,scott and big phil are the three that you should take a dart and stick the wage packet on one of them .

  13. Tony Peace

    Apr 9, 2014 at 5:48 am

    Well,you’ve eliminated my 4 picks of Zach,Ricky,Ernie & Trev Immelmann. Interesting to see how you fare. Good luck.

  14. baljit

    Apr 9, 2014 at 12:52 am

    The guy condemning Rory clearly has not seen him hit balls in person.

    Striking out the first timers based on tournament history sounds logical. but looking at the qualities of the first timers in field, Im not surprised if one of them wins

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2014 at 10:47 am

      I do think that this is the best 1-time invitee group of golfers we have had in a long time. It wouldn’t shock me if a player won, but it’s historically been difficult to win the first time playing any event on Tour. Particularly the Masters.

      • baljit

        Apr 30, 2014 at 9:45 am

        and two newbies nearly won it…i rest my case

  15. LMB

    Apr 8, 2014 at 10:19 pm

    I get the way you did this list, but you have Vijay Singh on there with a chance to win but not Bernhard Langer? IMHO Bernhard is a much more solid/consistant player and would probably wipe the floor with Vijay if they were competing in matchplay.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2014 at 10:51 am

      Vijay hits it higher and longer. He is also striking the ball quite well this year, particularly from 175-225 yards.

      • LMB

        Apr 14, 2014 at 11:59 pm

        Langer T-8…..Vijay???? No where to be seen. I rest my case.

  16. Nagar

    Apr 8, 2014 at 8:25 pm

    Good article. I feel Jason Day has a huge chance in winning. He has been near or near a bouts for 3 years now and is due for a major win.

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  18. Rob

    Apr 8, 2014 at 6:13 pm

    No love for Dufner? He may not win, but I’d bet on a top 10 finish for the Dufman.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2014 at 10:54 am

      2nd lowest trajectory on Tour. Also plays a fade. Love him as a player, but Augusta is a tough fit for him.

  19. PBGS

    Apr 8, 2014 at 12:58 pm

    Luke Donald is considered long enough?

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2014 at 10:55 am

      Not just based off distance, but club head speed. Luke is generating about 111 to 112 mph of club head speed. Trajectory is so important at ANGC and Luke has enough speed and hits it high. He’s borderline, but since he’s played very well in the past, I gave him the nod.

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  21. Mathieu

    Apr 8, 2014 at 12:00 pm

    very interesting, thanks,
    any thoughts on Dubuisson, even if he’s never played Augusta?

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2014 at 11:03 am

      Good driver of the ball that excels from 125-175 yard shots (ranked #1 on Tour). But poor from the Danger Zone (142nd) mainly because he has struggled to keep those shots in the fairway. He could stand a good chance here because he’s 8th in shots from the fairway and the rough at ANGC is negligible. Has putted terribly this year (174th in Putts Gained)

      • Mathieu

        Apr 11, 2014 at 2:00 am

        I guess he’s learning how to play in the USA. I think stats don’t count for him this year he’s improving every week, espacially on putting (slower greens in europe), we’ll see then. thanks

  22. Javier

    Apr 8, 2014 at 6:10 am

    A very reasonable list, I like it.
    Agree with you; Rory, Mickelson and Scott are the favorites, but I’d love that any of the Spaniards win the tournament, specially Sergio or Jimenez.

  23. Kyle

    Apr 8, 2014 at 4:34 am

    Not sure how the weathers going to be but i seen on the news yesterdays practice rounds were cancelled due to storms, Would you say the wetter weather will play into other players hands vs certain others?

    Anyone any idea about if Jason Days hand is ok? Nick Faldo mentioned he had injured it yesterday

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 8, 2014 at 8:57 am

      Depends on how wet it gets. If it makes for the greens to be softer, then the shorter hitters that strike their long approach shots well (i.e. Zach) have more of a chance. If it is soaked and the ball is not rolling off the tee, then it could start to favor their longer hitters because they can carry it further.

  24. Joel

    Apr 7, 2014 at 11:45 pm

    In my humble opinion, I believe at ANGC, the “danger zone” should be differentiated between 175-200 and 200-225. A player could be pretty average from 200-225(Bubba Watson) but solid from 175ish and win. The same goes for Lee Westwood, and even though he’s not as long as Bubba, I think he plays to his strengths and weaknesses when it comes to 200+ approaches. Also, for what it’s worth, Zach Johnson is ahead of both Kuchar and Snedeker in regards to distance in 2014. I like him over both of those guys. That being said, 8 out of 10 on this list is flat out amazing.

    • Joel

      Apr 7, 2014 at 11:48 pm

      Sorry for the duplicate entries there. For some reason my 1st comment didnt show up for several hours. I suppose I’m REALLY pushing for Zach Johnson.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 8, 2014 at 9:01 am

      When I examine courses and what approach shots have the most strokes gained/lost from I actually look at it in 25-yard increments instead of 50-yard increments. Both 175-200 yards and 200-225 yards are where a lot of strokes are lost and gained. Not only on the par-4’s and par-3’s, but on the par-5’s. So if a long hitter like Bubba bombs one on a par-5 and has 215 yards into the hole, it doesn’t do him much good if he can’t execute from 215 yards.

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  26. Sky

    Apr 7, 2014 at 7:29 pm

    I think it’s a very solid list. I would call Kuchar a shorter hitter and a low ball hitter though.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 8, 2014 at 9:03 am

      Thanks, Sky. I base short hitting not only on distance, but club head speed. I base low ball hitting based on what the Max Height averages reported from ShotLink. Kuchar is not terribly short nor does he hit it terribly low. I will say like Luke Donald, he’s on the borderline (Donald actually hits it high). But given his success here in the past in good weather conditions and his recent play I put him on the list.

  27. Nick Boyd

    Apr 7, 2014 at 6:33 pm

    Fred Couples seems to be in the mix every year on sunday, thats the one that sticks out to me as a booboo. Interesting process of elimination and good read overall!

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 8, 2014 at 1:21 am

      My issue with Freddie is I don’t think his back would hold up.

      • Nick Boyd

        Apr 8, 2014 at 5:53 pm

        Its Augusta – Freddy lives for Augusta

    • Jack Michaels

      Apr 9, 2014 at 1:31 pm

      I agree. Couples’ history at Augusta is so stella in recent years, plus his form on the Champions Tour has been great. At the 175/1 I got I think that Freddy is a solid each way bet.

  28. leftright

    Apr 7, 2014 at 4:46 pm

    Rich,
    I’ll give you your 10 and take the rest for $100. Please email me if you want the bet and anyone else who wants the bet I’ll take it. You take Rich’s 10 and I’ll take the rest.

    • leftright

      Apr 7, 2014 at 4:50 pm

      I only made this comment to be sort of in your face because it is going to be real wet this year it seems. Brings many others into play. Personally I hop Phil wins…ABT.

    • Jason

      Apr 9, 2014 at 12:40 am

      Ill take the bet of his top 23 Vs Field. 10 vs 80 is a little lopsided.

  29. Joel

    Apr 7, 2014 at 4:37 pm

    Maybe I’m a dork but I love this stuff, and 8 out of 10 is incredible. If I can play devils advocate, it seems to me that there are players where “Danger Zone” avoidance is more important than danger zone play. Westwood and Watson are two that come to mind. Is it possible the sample size is smaller for them because they’re aware of this weakness? Both struggle from 200-225 but neither often leave themselves that far out(on 4’s or 5’s at Augusta.) It seems obvious but I wonder if Bubba had the fewest “danger zone” attempts two years ago. You have Zach Johnson listed as “too short” but he actually leads Snedeker and Kuchar in driving distance in 2014-I think he’s got a legitimate shot. For a longshot, and I know his putting can be sketchy, but I like Woodland. I have no statistics to back it up either:)

  30. Kevin

    Apr 7, 2014 at 3:11 pm

    I really liked this article, a great way to look at this topic.

    My one question is, why didn’t Luke Donald fall into your “too short” category? I don’t feel he’s any longer than the others you mentioned. His average finish in driving distance is in the high 160s or low 170s, so there’s only like 10 guys on the PGA Tour each year who, on average, hit their drives shorter than him.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 7, 2014 at 5:18 pm

      I measure ‘too short’ not only on distance, but based on club head speed. Donald also hits the ball much higher. He’s really on the borderline, but since he has played well at ANGC in the past, I kept him in the top-23

  31. west

    Apr 7, 2014 at 2:38 pm

    Whaaaaat?!?! Making predictions like this are “speculative” at best. Sports, especially golf, has soooo many factors you couldn’t possibly factor or weigh them all in a way that might contribute to making an accurate prediction. Can’t wait to see how things turn out this week. You’re playing the lotto here, and my only prediction is that someone will win that is not on your top ten list…

    • west

      Apr 7, 2014 at 2:39 pm

      Did the Final Four teach you nothing this year? 😉

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 7, 2014 at 3:11 pm

      There are many common trends that and statistical probabilities that favor certain types of players on each course on Tour. Your odds of seeing somebody like Tim Clark win here are very slim. Yet, a course like Sawgrass will play much more into his favor and is why he has won there. Last year, 8 of the top-10 finishers were in my final 23. The only players that were not were Jason Day (bad Danger Zone play) and Thorbjorn Olesen (a European player I have no data on).

      • Keith

        Apr 7, 2014 at 3:33 pm

        Day is 16th on the Fed Ex Cup and Won the World Cup and the World Matchplay? How is that in the Danger Zone.

  32. John

    Apr 7, 2014 at 2:20 pm

    Very informative and interesting article. Well done.

    Love Leishman as a surprise pick.

    • Mx

      Apr 7, 2014 at 3:02 pm

      Not really a surprise as he has already played extremely well at augusta. Can’t remember what year it was though. I would never rule out DJ, Poulter and, after last years performance, Thorbjorn Olesen.

      • John

        Apr 7, 2014 at 5:23 pm

        his odds are 100/1 to win. I’d call that a surprise if he did.

  33. Dude McDude

    Apr 7, 2014 at 11:56 am

    “They are, in no particular order”

    Except they are in alphabetical order…

  34. Jamie Kennedy

    Apr 7, 2014 at 11:43 am

    FYI – Senden has made the cut. He finished T35th last year.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 7, 2014 at 12:05 pm

      You know what? You’re right. When I was looking at his past history on Wikipedia, I got the columns screwed up. I think he stands a chance since he is a good Danger Zone player (shots from 150+ yards), but his record at ANGC has not been good.

  35. nikkyd

    Apr 7, 2014 at 11:21 am

    Rory mcilroy has got to be the most over rated young player on tour. And a whiner at best.

    • T

      Apr 7, 2014 at 11:26 am

      do you have any stats to back that up??? Seeing as this is an article about statistics…not ridiculous intangibles…regardless how is a two time major winner before the age of 24 overrated?

      • Pudo

        Apr 8, 2014 at 1:17 pm

        Word! Rors is Top Notch material! If he was a Yankee he’d be your man all day long.! Wake the f**k up Nikkyd!

    • Jacob

      Apr 7, 2014 at 11:42 am

      2 Majors championships is over-rated? You have very high standards sir.

    • Sean Edwards

      Apr 7, 2014 at 12:02 pm

      Overrated? Two majors, and three wins in 4 weeks? Overrated?? He has more talent in his pinky than half of the tour players. Quit making ignorant statements with no evidence to back it up. Go Rory!!!

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 7, 2014 at 12:09 pm

      He’s won 2 majors including a blow-out victory at the US Open and won the PGA decisively. He was leading the Masters in decisive fashion until blowing up on the final day. And then he did the interview afterward despite being heartbroken (he had yet to have won a major at that time) and handled the interview as professionally and as maturely as anybody I have ever seen. And he’s only 24 years old. He hasn’t been perfect in his behavior, but he has acted very maturely, kindly and in general I find him to be a terrific representative of the game of golf.

    • Craig Peckham

      Apr 8, 2014 at 1:00 am

      I have said this for a while about Rory McIlroy; he has only won primarily in ‘soft’ conditions. As Tiger once said about Rory, he will win more when he learns the nuances of the game. If it rains before or during the Masters week and the wind stays down, look for Rory to be in contention (Top 5), otherwise I don’t think he will be in the Top 10. He simply doesn’t have the variety of shots, or doesn’t have the confidence yet to use when called for. As for Mr. Richie Hunt, I am surprised that in your statistical analysis you didn’t factor in age. Aren’t most Masters winners over 30 and primarily under 35 (with some exceptions of course). The age factor presumably would mean enough PGA Tour and competitive experience combined with athletic ability.

      • Björn

        Apr 9, 2014 at 2:43 am

        Rory grew up playing Royal County Down. One of the best golf courses in the workd and without a doubt one of the windiest. It also has very firm greens and requires a reportoir of shots that no course in the US requires. I think he has it all.

  36. T

    Apr 7, 2014 at 11:20 am

    Love the article and the in depth statistical analysis. I do have a question or two about where you get your stats. Let’s take Ryan Moore for instance. He is currently ranked #2 in GIR from 175-200 yds & #11 in Approaches from the same distance as of the SHO so should he really be eliminated because of the “danger zone” stat? He may not be a solid contender but his current form and history at Augusta make him an intriguing pick just below the favorites.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 7, 2014 at 12:03 pm

      Danger Zone is based on proximity to the cup. It is also based on shots from 175-225 yards. What is interesting is that I created a formula that took proximity to the cup and the % of greens *missed*. The lowest combination of the two would be the ‘best.’ I’ve found that from 125-175 yards being the best at these two (prox 2 cup + greens missed %), this was statistically very important. But from 175+ yards, not so much. From 175+ yards it is more about getting the ball closer to the hole.

      I don’t have this off the top of my head, but Moore was ranked in the bottom half in Danger Zone play this year. So I think you’re likely over-valueing GIR % from that distance and not counting in shots from 200-225 yards.

  37. Nick

    Apr 7, 2014 at 11:06 am

    Zach Johnson is too short to play Augusta? Really? He’s as long as he was in 2007… when he won at Augusta.

    • Matt

      Apr 7, 2014 at 11:10 am

      I think Rich explained why he said ZJ was too short and gave a brief explanation to why he believes he was able to compete in 07.

      • leftright

        Apr 7, 2014 at 4:54 pm

        The most important stat is “who has got the head for it.” That pretty much eliminates 5 of the 10 off the bat. You have to fail before you succeed and Snedeker, Leishman, Day, Bradley and Kuchar have to fail first, despite the PGA wins. None of those guys have to stomach for it yet.

        • kent

          Apr 7, 2014 at 8:43 pm

          leftright….while I do agree with you that many of those do not likely have the stomach, Watson disproved that theory with his win a couple years ago. As much fun as he is to watch, I can’t remember a more shaky looking player in contention (not sure if you caught his skulled chip earlier this year). And yet, he hit one great shot from the trees to earn his jacket. I’d certainly put my money on all those you listed over Bubba a couple years ago.

          • leftright

            Apr 8, 2014 at 3:00 pm

            I sort of agree but if Bubba had Tiger or Jack’s “stomach” he would have won 15 majors by now. They talk about Tiger’s talent but Bubba may have the most talent ever. Essentially, and this is from personal experience and speaking with many real good players, 99% of golfers really don’t have the stomach for it. The mind is the most underrated part of golf and most underrated skill. I personally would like to see more psychiatric articles because my mind is beating me to death most of the time and probably many of you. Do the hibijeebees control you or do you control them? Tiger and Jack controlled them best if they even had them.

        • Richie Hunt

          Apr 8, 2014 at 1:23 am

          Keegan Bradley has a major under his belt. I think he has more than the stomach for it. In fact, I think he screams ‘GET IN MY BELLY!’

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The final major of 2024 is nearly here as the top golfers head to Scotland’s southwestern coast to battle for the claret jug at Royal Troon. Golf’s original major dates all the way back to 1860 and has been played at 14 different courses throughout the United Kingdom (yes, this includes Northern Ireland) providing countless memories including celebrations, heartbreak, and unique moments that will never be forgotten (looking at you Jordan Spieth).

With The Open teeing off less than a week from now, we wanted to highlight some of The Open Championship’s finest links courses that should play when you make the journey to golf’s homeland:

Old Course at St. Andrews 

Do we even need to say anything else? The “Home of Golf”, host of 30 Open Championships, the most coveted tee time in the WORLD, there are a million reasons to have St. Andrews on your links golf bucket list. From the double greens, to the tee shot over the Old Course Hotel, to the walk up 18th fairway with the town buildings framing a picturesque scene (especially at dusk), every golfer should make the voyage to St Andrews at least once in their life.

Carnoustie 

Carnoustie – Championship Course

Roughly 25 miles north of St. Andrews lies the devious links of Carnoustie, often recognized by the large white Carnoustie Golf Hotel as the backdrop of the 18th green. While the course has only hosted The Open 8 times, it is considered to be one of the hardest layouts in The Open rota (just ask Jean Van de Velde) although not that long, playing just under 7000 yards from the tips. 

Muirfield 

Located right next to this week’s host of Scottish Open (The Renaissance Club), this fantastic links layout has hosted the prestigious Championship 16 times since 1892. The narrow fairways and penal rough requires precise shots off the tee while avoiding the devious pot bunkers is a must. The course is set away from the coastline so you won’t get the sweeping ocean views, but a round at Muirfield is one the premier tee times in all of Scotland (so make sure you book early – 12-18 months at least).

Royal Portrush 

A view of the new 572 yards par 5, seventh hole designed by Martin Ebert on the Dunluce Course at Royal Portrush Golf Club the host club for the 2019 Open Championship in Portrush, Northern Ireland. © 2018 Rob Durston

Our next stop brings us across the Irish Sea to the northern coast of Northern Ireland and the popular Royal Portrush. Having hosted The Open only twice in its illustrious history, Royal Portrush is a golfer’s dream with 36 holes of pure links golf set against a gorgeous backdrop of the ocean and cliffs. The Open Championship will return to Portrush in 2025 and YOU CAN BE THERE to watch it all in person! 

Royal Troon 

TROON – JULY 26: General view of the ‘Postage Stamp’ par 3, 8th hole taken during a photoshoot held on July 26, 2003 at the Royal Troon Golf Club, venue for the 2004 Open Championships, in Troon, Scotland. (Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images)

The host of this year’s Open Championship, Royal Troon is home to one of the best par-3 holes in all of golf, “The Postage Stamp.” A downhill 125-yard tee shot to a minuscule green surrounded by bunkers on all sides makes it one of the more challenging holes. Another hole that adds to the challenge is the 601-yard par 5 that used to be the longest golf hole in Open Championship history. This year will be the 10th Open Championship held at Royal Troon, the first since 2016 when Mickelson and Stenson had a battle for the ages in the final round.

Royal Birkdale 

For the next course on the list, we have to head down to the northwest coast of England just outside of Liverpool. Consistently ranked in the Top 10 courses in all the UK, this 10-time host of The Open has hosted many other prestigious events such as Ryder Cups, Women’s Opens, and more! The course is laid out with fairways running through flat-bottomed valleys surrounded by high dunes which provide many blind shots throughout the course. The Open returns to Royal Birkdale in 2026 so it won’t be long before it is back in the spotlight.

Royal St. George’s 

For the final course on our list, we are staying in England, but heading across to the southeastern side of the country to Kent. Royal St. George’s is 4th on the list of most Open Championships hosted with 15 (1 behind Muirfield) the most recent being Collin Morikawa’s victory in 2021. RSG is the only active course on The Open rota in this part of the UK, but two former hosts (Prince’s and Royal Cinque Ports) are within 3 miles of the property. The expansive course is laid out with holes separated by dunes with heavy rough, undulating fairways, and deep pot bunkers to challenge your game. While it may not be mentioned in the discussions of St. Andrews, Carnoustie, and the like, Royal St. George’s is still a Championship layout that is worth the trip across the pond.


With these big-name courses in such high demand, it is important to note that if you want to play them, you need to start planning your trip early. Golfbreaks by PGA TOUR, the world’s #1 rated golf tour operator, suggests planning and booking your trip at least 12-18 months in advance in order to secure a tee time at the courses you want. The UK & Ireland specialists at Golfbreaks by PGA TOUR have the knowledge to help tailor the perfect golf trip for your group so you can play big-name courses and hidden gems you might not have heard of. If you’re ready to start planning your bucket list trip across the pond, make life easier and go with Golfbreaks by PGA TOUR.

Editor’s note: This article is presented in partnership with Golfbreaks. When you make a purchase through links in this article, GolfWRX may earn an affiliate commission.

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Ryder Cup 2025: Crossing to Bethpage – New York State Park golf, Part 1

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The 2025 Ryder Cup matches will be held over the sprawling, bruising, Long Island acreage known as Bethpage Black State Park Golf Course. The course has hosted multiple national championships, most recently the 2019 PGA Championship. In September 2025, Bethpage Black will welcome teams from the USA and Europe to contest the 45th Ryder Cup matches. Team Europe, the defending champions, will be led again by captain Luke Donald. The U.S. PGA has not yet announced the name of its leader, yet all sources and speculations point to a 15-time major champion and an eight-time participant in the biennial event.

Bethpage Black will join Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester (1995) as the second Empire State course to host the event. The Ryder Cup matches were played in the metropolitan New York area once before, in 1935 at the Ridgewood Club, in Paramus, New Jersey. It’s fair to say that metro NYC is due to host this world-stage, golf event. I can’t wait. The USA’s loss to Europe in 2023 adds to the considerable drama.

What makes Bethpage Black an outlier in the world of championship golf, is its mere existence. It’s a state park golf course, one of five on property, each with a colorful name. The Red, Green, Blue, and Yellow join big brother Black as outstanding tests of golf in Farmingdale. Of the five, only the Green was not originally built as a state course. The Lenox Hills Country Club, designed by Devereux Emmet, opened in 1923. By 1932, the club had closed and the land had become property of the state. Its birth date made the Green the oldest of the five courses. New York State began to build on a series of adjacent parcels, guided by the hands of Alber “A.W.” Tillinghast, Joseph Burbeck, and Alfred Tull. The Yellow course, built entirely by Tull, was the last of the five to open.

State park courses just don’t hold major championships. Private clubs and elite resorts are the typical sites that receive the nod from the world’s golf bodies. It’s a testament to the lovers of Bethpage, the New York state government, and the PGA of America (among others) that Bethpage is as good as it is, and that it continues to improve. It’s a fitting site for the 2025 Ryder Cup matches, but the 2025 Ryder Cup matches need a beginning to their story. I’ll do my best to provide it.

The quintet of courses near Bethpage, New York, is just the beginning of the New York state park golf course system. 19 parks in total offer golf from the tip of Long Island, to the shores of Lake Ontario, through the Catskill mountains, to my home town. I’m a Western New York guy. The Buffalo area has been my home for most of my 58 years on the golf ball known as Earth. I live two miles from the westernmost, state park golf course: Beaver Island. The Beav, as everyone calls it, was designed by William Harries. It opened the year I was born, which means that it is close to 60 years old! Unlike the Bethpage property, where topography is king, the Beav is a flat course, albeit full of enough interest to bring you back for more.

As I considered the magnitude of the state park system, I realized that golfers who frequent those 19 state parks can point to their home course and say, “You know, the Ryder Cup will be at a state park course next year.” I started to count on my fingers, the number of state park courses I had played: Beaver Island, Green Lakes (Syracuse), James Baird (Poughkeepsie), and the five at Bethpage, I realized that I had played eight of the 23 total courses, and had visited a mere four of the 19 parks.

Bethpage is the only, multi-course state park across the Empire State. Other venues range from pitch-and-putt, to nine-hole, to regulation 18-hole courses. The majority occupy nice tracts of land, and feature 18 holes of memorable, enjoyable golf. PGA Tour professionals Joey Sindelar and Mike Hulbert grew up on one of those courses, and Dottie Pepper spent a bit of time on another, near her hometown.

There will be many stories that trace the path to Bethpage and its 2025 Ryder Cup, and I look forward to reading and hearing them. This one is my own, and I’m proud (and a little frightened) to undertake it. I’ll visit each of the remaining parks over the next 16 months, and report in with images and words that tell the story of each park and its golf course.

The Ones I’ve Played

The Bethpage Five

As mentioned above, I’ve played eight of the 23 courses, but the majority of that number is owed to a 2011 pilgrimage to Long Island. The Black had just hosted its second US Open championship, and the ink for the 2019 PGA Championship was not yet printed. I spoke with a Bethpage caddy, in anticipation of the trek. I wrote a series of articles on the courses on my own site, BuffaloGolfer. Down the road of this, current series, I’ll discuss the most poignant piece that I connected with Bethpage. That’s a story for another time. After all, Bethpage is a five-course meal.

It’s safe to say the the Bethpage property is unlike any other, municipal, golfing space in the world (at least, those not named the Links Trust of St. Andrews!) The park encompasses nearly 1500 acres of wooded land and offers much beyond golf to its visitors. As pilgrimages go, Bethpage is it. For a New York state resident, on a weekend, it would cost a total of $257 dollars … to play all five courses. Even for those outside the state, the trip to Bethpage is worth consideration. Each course rambles over uneven, heaving land. Holes carry along falloffs and bend unexpectedly around corners. Greens are benched into hillsides and settled into valleys. All five courses remind you of the others, yet none of them says to you “You’ve played this course before.”

James Baird State Park 

One of the hats that I wear, is high school golf coach. Each spring, golfers from my team travel to Poughkeepsie to play the James Baird State Park golf course. Pronounced “Bard,” the course was opened in 1948, after a middle-aged, Robert Trent Jones, senior, put pen to paper to lay out the course. Jones was about to become a household name, as he would offer renovation advice to many of the country’s classic clubs. He was most famously associated with the Oakland Hills Country Club near Detroit, the host site of the 1951 US Open. You know, the one where Ben Hogan purportedly gasped “I’m glad I brought this course, this monster, to its knees.”

Trent didn’t leave a monster in Poughkeepsie. What he left was something that locals call Baby Bethpage. The James Baird course is blessed with topography similar to its five-course cousin, but it offered a challenge that Bethpage does not: a huge expanse of marsh across the belly of the property. There was not going over nor through it, so Jones simply went around it. He created something that he never, ever did: a short par three. Jones was a fan of the brutish, 200-yard plus, all-carry, par three hole. For the third hole at Baird, he had all of 120 yards, and it was downhill! Jones placed a green in the marsh, connected to the mainland by an earthen bridge. He then turned north for a time, then returned south, outside the marsh. Trent Jones had another stretch of tricky land to navigate, this time, on the inward half. He brought a trio of holes (pars 4-3-5) through a challenging corner of the property, before returning to the open meadow that hosts the majority of the layout.

James Baird is a tremendous golf course, one that prepares our high school competitors well for the next step: the state federation championship at, you guessed it, Bethpage Black. Six golfers move on to compete against other, high school divisions, at the big brother of them all.

Green Lakes

The Baird course came to life 13 years after Trent Jones opened his first, New York state parks course. Originally from Rochester, New York, Trent ventured 90 minutes east to Manlius, near Syracuse, in 1935, to lay out one of his first ten courses. RTJ was gifted the magnificent land that abuts the two glacial lakes in central New York. The lakes are meromictic, which we all know means that surface and bottom waters do not mix in the fall and spring, as happens with dimictic lakes.

Trent Jones placed his clubhouse and finishing greens (9 and 18) in an interesting portion of the property. The ninth hole is an uphill, par five that plays fifty yards longer than its measured distance. Once home to upper and lower greens, the lower has been expanded and enhanced, and the upper is now abandoned. On the other side of the clubhouse, the sneaky 18th moves out of a corridor of trees, into the open space beneath the clubhouse. It’s a bit reminiscent of the 18th at Bethpage’s Green course. It’s not a long hole, yet when you walk off with five or six on your card, you wonder where you went astray.

The front half of the course plays along a vast meadow, above Green Lake, the larger of the two, nautical bodies. The inward side forages among the tree above Round Lake, before finally emerging at the home hole. The apparent contrariety of the two nines is resolved through expansion of fairway corridors on the treed nine, and the constriction of playing paths with bunkers and doglegs, on the exposed side.

If you’re a walker, Green Lakes will make you a fit one. It will also demand all the clubs and shots that you can fit in your bag.

Beaver Island

“Tame” isn’t the proper term to describe Beaver Island, the state park course near my home. I believe that “calm” is a better term. It may seem ironic, given that the 1965 course occupies a tract of land at the southern tip of Grand Island, where the Niagara River splits east and west, before reuniting at the north end. When we think of the Niagara, we think of the mighty rapids and cascades near the brink and bottom of the falls. At the southern split of the river, however, you can throw a canoe in the water and have a paddle. Beaver Island knows that it is adjacent to the river, but you never get the sense that this golf course borders water. I’ve redesigned the park hundreds of times in my head, moving the golf course to the banks of the river, where the trails, beach, playground, and other amenities are currently found. In the end, not every great golf course can, nor should, be built.

William Harries trained under the famed competitor and architect, Walter Travis. Despite this exposure to the master, Harries went his own way with his golf courses. The most striking difference is in green construction. While Travis was extraordinarily creative and daring, Harries was the polar opposite. His greens are routinely flat and easy to navigate.

He designed a number in the western New York area, including Brookfield Country Club. Originally known as Meadow Brook, the club hosted the 1948 Western Open, won by the aforementioned, Ben Hogan. The majority of Harries’ work was in municipal courses, and he designed Sheridan Park for the town of Tonawanda. That course hosted the 1962 USGA Public Links championship.

On Grand Island, Harries traced his layout around three ponds. The massive, western one, comes into play on the second through fifth holes. The middle one plays games with the approach to the eighth green. The final one, on the inward side, forces golfers to carry their tee shot over water, to the 14th fairway. Beaver Island bears no resemblance to the topography of the other locales mentioned previously. There is no heaving, no tumbling, no turbulence, along its fairways. Beaver Island is more St. Andrews in its flattish presentation, which makes it an honest, what-you-see, sort of golf course. It’s an enjoyable walk in the park, a not-too-demanding one.

Part Two: south-central New York-Soaring Eagles, Chenango Valley, Indian Hills, and Bonavista

https://www.rydercup.com/ PGA of America Ryder Cup Trophy

Ryder Cup Trophy @ Bethpage – Photo courtesy of PGA of America

 

 

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Travelers Championship betting preview: Patrick Cantlay to continue impressive play

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The third major championship of 2024 did not disappoint as Bryson Dechambeau capped off a sensational week with the second U.S. Open victory of his career. The season rolls along to Cromwell, Connecticut, where TPC River Highlands hosts the 2024 Travelers Championship. This is yet another designated event with a $20 million dollar purse.

TPC River Highlands is a 6,841-yard par-70 that has been a PGA Tour stop for 40 years. Home of the only 58 in Tour history, it is possible to go extremely low at this Pete Dye design. However, TPC River Highlands does feature a difficult closing stretch with holes 16-18 all historically averaging scores over par.

The Travelers Championship will play host to 72 golfers this week. Being a signature event, almost all of the best players on Tour will be teeing it up. 

PGA Tour U winner, Michael Thorbjornsen, will be making his season debut this week at the Travelers. 

Past Winners at The Travelers Championship

  • 2023: Keegan Bradley (-23)
  • 2022: Xander Schauffele (-19)
  • 2021: Harris English (-13)
  • 2020: Dustin Johnson (-19)
  • 2019: Chez Reavie (-17)
  • 2018: Bubba Watson (-17)
  • 2017: Jordan Spieth (-12)
  • 2016: Russell Knox (-14)

Key Stats For TPC River Highlands

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC River Highlands to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach sits at the top spot in the stat model this week. The course is relatively short, and golfers with multiple types of skill sets compete here. Iron play is often the great equalizer allowing the shorter hitters to compete, and that should be the case again this week.

SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.61)
  2. Corey Conners (+1.11)
  3. Sepp Straka (+0.92)
  4. Xander Schauffele (+0.91)
  5. Tony Finau (+0.88)

2. Par 4 Birdie or Better %

With only two par-5s on the course, the importance of par-4 scoring cannot be understated. Whoever plays the par-4s most effectively this week will put himself in the driver’s seat.

Par 4 Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Eric Cole (25.4%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+24.6%)
  3. Patrick Cantlay (+23.5%)
  4. Rory McIlroy (+22.8%)
  5. Wyndham Clark (+22.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Ball striking combines off the tee and approach and will be the stat I use to incorporate off-the-tee play this week. The over-emphasis on approach play will incorporate golfers who give themselves plenty of birdie looks in the event.

SG: Ball Striking past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.56)
  2. Ludvig Aberg (+1.67)
  3. Xander Schauffele (+1.57)
  4. Rory McIlroy (+1.44)
  5. Corey Conners (+1.31)

4. Course History

Course history has proven to be a major factor at TPC River Highlands. With seven golfers who have multiple wins at the course, familiarity could be the key at the Travelers Championship.

Strokes Gained: Total at TPC River Highlands per round over Past 36 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.03)
  2. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  3. Brian Harman (+1.98)
  4. Rory McIlroy (+1.97)
  5. Scottie Scheffler (+1.54)

5. Strokes Gained: Total Pete Dye Designs

TPC River Highlands is another prototypical Pete Dye track where many of the same golfers play well consistently.

SG: Pete Dye per round Over Past 36 Rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.49)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+2.22)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+1.86)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.66)
  5. Patrick Cantlay (+1.61)

6. Strokes Gained: Putting on Bent/POA Mix

TPC River Highlands is another prototypical Pete Dye track where many of the same golfers play well consistently.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bent/POA Mix Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Denny McCarthy (+1.41)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+1.04)
  3. Keegan Bradley (+1.01)
  4. Robert MacIntyre (+0.98)
  5. Wyndham Clark (+0.84)

The Travelers Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (26%), Par 4 Birdie or Better % (13%), SG: Ball Striking (20%), Course History (13%), SG: Putting Bent/POA (14%) and SG: Pete Dye (14%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Rory McIlroy
  3. Scottie Scheffler 
  4. Viktor Hovland
  5. Corey Conners
  6. Sahith Theegala
  7. Brian Harman
  8. Keegan Bradley
  9. Collin Morikawa
  10. Tony Finau

2024 Travelers Championship Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (FanDuel)

When a player contends in a major in the previous week, I typically like to fade said player the following week. However, this week feels a bit different to me. Cantlay has been struggling all season, and I can’t help but feel like the former FedEx Cup champion found something during the U.S. Open. I also don’t think he was incredibly disappointed with the result. He played well on Sunday and was impressive over the weekend, finally getting a true feel of what major championship contention felt like. It was all positives for Cantlay at Pinehurst.

Cantlay will now head to a spot where he’s had an incredible amount of success but has not yet notched a victory. In his last six starts at the course, he’s not finished worse than 15th. His best start came last year, where he finished T4. He ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total at TPC River Highlands. Cantlay is also a Pete Dye specialist and ranks 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks. The 32-year-old ranks 3rd in Par 4 birdie or better percentage.

Cantlay was spectacular across the board at Pinehurst. For the week, he ranked 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 10th in Strokes Gained: Putting. I fully expect him to build off of that performance and contend once again at one of his favorite Tour stops.

Sam Burns +3500 (DraftKings)

Sam Burns had a great Sunday at Pinehurst, which is always a bonus heading into the following week. He shot -3 in his final round, which got him into the top ten (T9) in what was a successful major for a player who’s not performed his best in them historically.

Burns is a prolific birdie maker who can win a boat race to -20 as well as anyone on Tour. He’s also had some success at both Pete Dye courses, where he ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds, and at TPC River Highlands, where he ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds.

Burns has been playing some solid golf of late. He has four top-15 finishes in his past starts including a T13 at the Wells Fargo Championship, 10th at the RBC Canadian Open and 15th at the Memorial Tournament. He has gained strokes on approach and off the tee in five of his past six starts.

The LSU product can win golf tournaments in a variety of ways. His ability to make putts if it turns into a wedge and putting contest makes him a strong candidate to contend this week.

Sahith Theegala +4500 (BetRivers)

Sahith Theegala has been playing some solid golf over the last few months. As we saw last year with Keegan Bradley, a missed cut at the U.S. Open shouldn’t necessarily scare someone off from a player who fits TPC River Highlands, which I believe Theegala does.

TPC River Highlands is the site of Theegala’s near victory a few years back. He finished in a tie for 2nd in 2022 after making double-bogey on the 18th hole with a one-shot lead, losing to Xander Schauffele. Theegala will now head back to the course as a more mature player who is in the midst of the best season of his career.

This season, the former Haskins award winner in having strong finishes in some of the season’s most important events. He finished 5th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, 6th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 9th at the PLAYERS Championship, 2nd at the RBC Heritage and 12th at both the Memorial Tournament and PGA Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, Sahith ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 11th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 18th in Par 4 birdie or better percentage and 8th in Strokes Gained: Putting on Bent/POA mixed putting surfaces.

If this turns into another shootout, Theegala has the type of ball striking and putting combination that can win a race to -20.

Sungjae Im +6600 (BetRivers)

After seemingly regaining his form over the past month, Sungjae took a step back at last week’s U.S. Open. The South Korean missed the cut, shooting +10 over his first two rounds. Despite the disappointing result, I don’t believe one poor start at a long and difficult golf course is enough reason to give up on him. 

Although the score was regretful at Pinehurst No. 2, Im hit the ball pretty well from tee to green. In his two rounds, he gained strokes both off the tee and on approach. His downfall was with the putter, which can be extremely hit or miss, especially over the course of this season.

Prior to the U.S. Open, Sungjae had finished in the top ten in three of his previous four starts. He finished T4 at the Wells Fargo “Signature Event” at Quail Hollow, T9 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and T8 at The Memorial Tournament. He’s also gained strokes off the tee in nine straight events.

Im has made three starts at TPC River Highlands, finishing 21st, 58th and 29th respectively. Im hits fairways at a high clip, which will be a massive advantage this week and his lack of driving distance won’t be an issue. He also ranks 12th in the field in his past 24 rounds in Strokes Gained: Total on Pete Dye designs.

It’s been a long time since Im has won an event (2021 Shriners), but I believe he’s back on the upswing and is still a higher end talent on the PGA Tour with another win coming soon.

Tom Kim +6600 (BetRivers)

After a sluggish start to the 2024 season, Tom Kim has come on strong over the past month or so. The South Korean started his stretch of impressive play at Valhalla for the PGA Championship, finishing 24th. After that, Kim put together finishes of T4 at the RBC Canadian Open and a T26 at last week’s U.S. Open. In between, he finished T43 at The Memorial, but hit the ball great from tee to green.

Tom has done an impressive job of playing well at long and difficult setups, but this week, he will head to a course in TPC River Highlands that should his game immaculately. Both of Kim’s wins have come at short setups that mitigate his biggest weakness, which is driving distance. The course is short this week and fits the mold of the tracks Tom has had great success at over the past few seasons on Tour.

In his past 24 rounds, Kim ranks 7th in Par 4 birdie or better percentage, which will come into play this week. He also ranks 19th in the field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Kim is already a three-time winner on the PGA Tour and has shown that if he gets a sniff of contention, he can close out a tournament with the best of them.

 

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