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Fantasy Cheat Sheet: WGC-Accenture Match Play Championships

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This week it is acceptable to boo Tiger Woods, Adam Scott and Phil Mickelson.

I don’t like having a top-64 battle in bracket format like we’re having this week in the Accenture Match Play Championships and seeing the world’s Nos. 1, 2 and 4 golfers sit out. It’s just lame.

That little bit of irritability established, this tournament, however, sets up as a renaissance for the youth movement vibrating through the PGA Tour. And I for one am plum excited over some of the tantalizing matchups potentially out there. This week, I’m going to treat the normal Risk, Reward, Ruin format with the caveat that some high seeds are going to get upset, someone will unexpectedly get hot and bust a bracket and some matchups may never materialize.

So please just enjoy this five-day treat at The Golf Club at Dove Mountain in Marana, Ariz., as a nice break from the typical fantasy tournament structure and lick your chops at the competitiveness of the modern PGA Tour. Now let’s dig into some of the juiciness as I see it playing out.

RISK

Justin Rose Fantasy

Remember, this is match play. I think that favors someone with a good combination of youthful aggression, patience to know when to pick up a shot or just halve a hole and someone whose game is in good form to win over consecutive days. You don’t need to shoot 63 each day, just be one stroke better at the end. That’s the old I don’t have to outrun a bear, I just have to outrun the person next to me. This will be a true test of golf skill under the same pretenses. Here’s five who could fall early or make a run of it. And all of this is mindful of who each golfer could wind up playing, especially in second and third-round matches.

Justin Rose

I’ve got Rose, last year’s U.S. Open champion, winning three matches before falling to Jordan Spieth. That has more to do with his No. 1 seeding in the Gary Player Bracket than recent form. He’s solid with his irons and could get hot with the putter, but coming off an injury I don’t know that he has have the killer instinct necessary to put people away. In fact, I worry he could fall to Luke Donald/Jason Dufner in the third round. He’s only made the quarterfinals once and that was in 2007.

Matt Kuchar

Kuchar fantasy

The likelihood of Kuchar defending last year’s title is slim. He’s known on Tour as a strong trash talker with a nice guy demeanor. I don’t discount his viciousness, but I’m extremely surprised by how he missed the cut at the Northern Trust Open. Those two rounds (74-75) would get him beat in a hurry here. It could be an aberration, but getting past Ryan Moore in the second round could be tricky. Running up against Spieth after that is problematic. While he’s been first, third or fifth the last three years, I think this is the year he falls in the third round.

Brandt Snedeker

If Snedeker, whose distance from the pin has been his area of struggle this year, can get past a second round matchup with Webb Simpson, it could mean he’s solved some early season woes. And if he’s hot, look out, because he’ll make a run of it. It’s a big “if,” especially since (if seeds hold), he’d face Simpson, No. 1 seed Henrik Stenson and No. 2 Jason Day. Wow, tough task, but not out of the equation. He has the moxie to make putts when it counts. On a hunch, I’ve got him beating Simpson and Stenson, then falling to upset-special Patrick Reed in the quarterfinals. This is conjecture at its finest.

Hideki Matsuyama

hideki matsuyama

Matsuyama has the look of an eventual Tour winner. His game is locked in and he’s performing well in strokes gained putting. But he doesn’t have an easy road to hoe. He has to open with Martin Kaymer, who has won nine matches in last three years at this event, would play Graeme McDowell/Gary Woodland in Round 2 before a matchup with what could be Zach Johnson or Hunter Mahan. I have him beating Kaymer but falling to Woodland, whose recent form, length off the tee, and putting have been just as good. I give the edge in aggression to Woodland, who also knows how to win on Tour.

Steve Stricker

Making his first start of the year, Stricker is always steady and a veteran of Ryder Cup/Presidents Cup play and limited Tour starts. But he also usually has at least one tournament under his belt before this. While I don’t foresee any trouble with George Coetzee in the first round, I don’t see him getting past Patrick Reed (more on this below) in the second. And if he did, Jason Day is likely waiting. Wait for him to tee it up in a 36-hole cut event before pulling the trigger.

REWARD

Rory McIlroy fantasy

As I’ve already outlined the characteristics needed to win, there exist several thoroughbreds, which leads to some extremely intriguing matches and some dynamite television viewing. It also makes life tough picking who could win. Remember, all of this is subjective and in some ways purely hypothetical. But let’s give it a shot anyways.

Rory McIlroy

Let’s get it out of the way: I don’t see anyone beating Rory. He’s my champ and I’m sticking to it. All the swing issues of last year are gone, and if you don’t remember, he was pretty much the best player in the world before that. He’s back to the form that had him winning tournaments and dominating in the process. His first truly tough match won’t occur until the quarterfinals. This for a guy who was runner-up in 2012.

Zach Johnson

Zach Johnson

What’s not to love about Johnson here? His iron play is exact, he’s meticulous in his approach and he can putt with the best of him. He also doesn’t give in shot-for-shot. He’s won in playoffs, lost in playoffs and is familiar with Presidents Cup play. His upward trend and high seed should help navigate some of the bad fortunes he’s had here in year’s past. While a second-round match with 2012 champ and last year’s runner-up Hunter Mahan is brutal, and his run to the final consists of knocking off some tough opponents (potentially Keegan Bradley/Dustin Johnson in quarterfinals) I don’t see him falling until the final. He beats Jordan Spieth in the semifinal, returning the favor after losing to the kid in last year’s John Deere Classic playoff.

Jordan Spieth

You already know I have Spieth emerging from the Player Bracket by knocking out Kuchar and then Rose. The Kuchar draw is toughest but other than that he shouldn’t have too many difficulties. Have fun watching the 20-year-old because he is the real deal. With a Presidents Cup already under his belt, he’s built to handle pressure and win.

Patrick Reed

Patrick Reed Fantasy

Finally. I have Reed dropping Graham DeLaet in the first round. I might not have said that until DeLaet struggled in the Northern Trust Open after a blistering run previous to that. But what I love about Reed so much is what he’s already proven. He survived six Monday qualifiers last year. He learned how to win on Tour. He made a run to the Tour Championship. He won again on Tour. And his match play record was 6-0 while at Augusta State in winning two NCAA national championships. He has no fear and I look for him to make the final four before falling to Rory.

Keegan Bradley

Odd man out of the semifinals, he falls to Zach Johnson, but along the way knocks off Jonas Blixt, Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson. Bradley’s grit and determination, as displayed in Presidents Cup and Ryder Cup matches will carry him through. He can ride waves of emotion better than his opponents which will be the difference.

RUIN

Bubba Watson

Under normal circumstances, I don’t think any of these guys makes this list. Someone good has to lose. I don’t expect anyone is looking at Thorbjorn Olesen and thinking “Hmm, he could upset Jason Day.” You’re all smarter than that. But who could you pen in as a winner when in reality could get bounced early? That’s what I’m looking at.

Bubba Watson

Fresh off his first win since the 2012 Masters, new Northern Trust Open champion Watson will get past easy first round opponent Mikko Honen. But after that he’ll face Keegan Bradley, which is disaster. And that’s especially true since Bradley’s focus is stronger than Watson’s. Until Watson breaks the trend of him having one good week followed by mental hiatus, I have a tough time viewing him as being strong enough to navigate the Snead Bracket, which I view as the toughest bracket.

Jim Furyk

Jim Furyk fantasy

He catches a break in that Chris Kirk has cooled recently, but Kirk, a winner on Tour this year, is also a dangerous opponent. One thing we also know about Furyk, he hasn’t performed well in pressure-packed situations, whether that be in the final holes of a close Sunday finish or in Ryder Cup play. I think he falls to Kirk.

Charl Schwartzel

Recent form suggests Schwartzel can win a couple times, but it hasn’t helped him much in the past. He’s only played in the second round once and in order to do so would have to beat Kevin Stadler, who has a recent Tour win to his credit. Jim Furyk or Chris Kirk lies in wait in the second round before McIlroy ends his week. I’m 50/50 on a first round upset at the moment and slowly leaning towards Stadler.

Bill Haas

With a cigar hanging from his mouth, Miguel Angel Jimenez will chew up Haas and spit him out. This has more to do with Jimenez than Haas. The Spaniard is a fiery competitor and thrives under these circumstances. Sure, Haas could win, but he’s also lost in the first round in his three tries here. If he were to win, he’d face Sergio Garcia before Poulter would definitively end any thoughts of advancing. 

Jimmy Walker 

Does it seem odd for a golfer as hot as he is to wind up here? It isn’t if you consider he’s likely to going to face Ian Poulter in the second round. Do you remember Poulter, the killer of American Ryder Cup dreams? He lives for match play and plaid. Both will be in full effect this week, setting up a killer duel with McIlroy and Poulter. Walker will have to watch from the sidelines.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the Accenture Match Play Championships or if you have any bracket inquiries. Good luck!

This week’s picks:

FIRST ROUND

Jones Bracket 

H. Stenson (1) def. K. Aphibarnrat (16)

N. Watney (9) def. L. Oosthuizen (8)

B. Snedeker (4) def. D. Lynn (13)

W. Simpson (5) def. T. Jaidee (12)

J. Day (2) def. T. Olesen (15)

B. Horschel (10) def. J. Donaldson (7)

S. Stricker (3). def. G. Coetzee (14)

P. Reed (11) def. G. DeLaet (6)

Hogan Bracket

R. McIlroy (1) def. B. Weekley (16)

H. English (9) def. L. Westwood (8)

K. Stadler (13) def. Charl Schwartzel (4)

C. Kirk (12) def. J. Furyk (5)

S. Garcia (2) def. Marc Leishman (15)

M. Jimenez (10) def. B. Haas (7)

I. Poulter (3) def. R. Fowler (14)

J. Walker (6) def. B. Grace (11)

Player Bracket 

J. Rose (1) def. S. Piercy (16)

S. Gallacher (9) def. E. Els (8)

J. Dufner (4) def. S. Stallings (13)

L. Donald (5) def. M. Manasserro (12)

M. Kuchar (2) def. B. Wiesberger (15)

R. Moore (7) def. J. Luiten (10)

J. Spieth (3) def. P. Larrazabal (14)

F. Molinari (11) def. T. Bjorn (6)

Snead Bracket

Z. Johnson (1) def. R. Sterne (16)

H. Mahan (8) def. G. Fernandez-Castano (9)

G. Woodland (13) def. Graeme McDowell (4)

H. Matsuyama (5) def. Martin Kaymer (12)

D. Johnson (2) def. P. Hanson (15)

V. Dubuisson (7) def. K. Streelman (10)

B. Watson (3) def. M. Honen (14)

K. Bradley (6) def. J. Blixt (11)

QUARTERFINALS

P. Reed def. B. Snedeker

R. McIlroy def. I. Poulter

J. Spieth def. J. Rose

Z. Johnson def. K. Bradley

SEMIFINALS 

R. McIlroy def. P. Reed

Z. Johnson def. J. Spieth

THIRD-PLACE MATCH

J. Spieth def. P. Reed

CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH

R. McIlroy def. Z. Johnson

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Brian Miller is a sports writer of over eight years and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, Miami Herald and Tallahassee Democrat. He's a fantasy golf nut and his golf novel will be published in spring 2014. You may find him on Twitter @bricmiller.

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Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.

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