Just when you think have something figured out, you look at the weekend leaderboard and see Phil Mickelson has medically withdrawn and Tiger Woods has missed a secondary cut after a round of 79.

Say what? It’s crazy to think that given their sustained success on Torrey Pines, the Farmers Insurance Open title would go to Scott Stallings. In fact, none of the bigger names really made a run to grab the win. Brandt Snedeker, Rickie Fowler and steady Jimmy Walker all missed the cut.

Now attention turns to Phoenix and TPC Scottsdale, where the four-day attendance for the Waste Management Phoenix Open will pass 500,000. Dubbed “The Greatest Show on Grass,” the famous par-3 16th stadium has provided many memories. From Tiger’s hole-in-one in 1997 to Justin Leonard flipping a bird to the crowd, it should be an eventful week in the desert for a tournament that’s been held since 1932.

Here’s your fantasy golf helper for this week provided some star golfer doesn’t get torn up in a freak cactus accident. Who knows anymore. It’s Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

Besides Mickelson, there are three other multiple WMPO champions in the field: J.B. Holmes (’06, ’08), Vijay Singh (’95, ’03) and Mark Calcavecchia (’89, ’92, ’01). Odds say none of those players will win, but who knows. Singh missed the cut last week, but Holmes in return from injury hiatus put together a T23 finish and Calcavecchia, even at age 53, looked strong last week in finishing T55. None of those players make this Risk list, however. The ones who do can score since TPC Scottsdale has played the easiest among par-71 courses.

Bubba Watson

If a left-hander not named Mickelson wins this week, it will be Watson. He led the Farmers field in driving distance last week, finishing T23 at 3-under. Notice I didn’t say driving accuracy. Watson will bomb it out on this course, which may or may not mean chipping off rocks and cacti. We know he’s creative and there won’t be much in terms of treeline to deter playing his way out of precarious lies. Last year, Watson finished solo 15th at 15-under and was T5 (11-under) the year before. He’s a good bet to reach at least 10-under. Where that puts him remains to be seen.

Pat Perez

When I began looking at golfers who had fared well at the WMPO over the years, Perez’s name jumped out at me. And I thought about it for a little, wondering if anyone would even be enticed to pick him. And then he went out at Torrey Pines and put together a strong tournament, finishing in a tie for second. So far this year Perez has made six of seven cuts and looks to be a golfer who could have a breakout year. Since that missed cut, 12 of his past 20 rounds have been in the 60s, and TPC Scottsdale gives up birdies. In 2011, Perez finished T22 (11-under) and in ’12 was T19 (7-under).

Ryan Moore

The desert appeals to UNLV alum Moore, who resides in Las Vegas. He finished solo fourth last year at 22-under, but his two previous years weren’t so great. However, he is trending upward, already with a win this year in a playoff over Gary Woodland at the CIMB Classic in Malaysia. He finished 10th at the Hyundai TOC and will be rested entering this week’s tournament, where he could either get really low or do nothing at all.

Charley Hoffman

Is anyone else really happy that Hoffman has kept his short hair after cutting it last fall? I have to get that in writing. I could never take him seriously as a 37-year-old man with that blonde mullet tossing in the wind. And as silly as it may sound, those things can change the perception of a golfer. Because image-wise, Hoffman is a really solid golfer who is beginning to come into his own. He only missed four cuts last year, finishing 48th in the FedEx Cup standings. Having not missed a cut this year and holding three top-10 finished, including two the past two weeks, Hoffman should contend this week. He narrowly missed out on being a champion here before, losing in a 2009 playoff to Kenny Perry. This was one of his MC’s last year and the year before was four rounds in the 70s, hence the hesitation.

Graham DeLaet

If you want a golfer trending upward, look no further than the Canadian. After missing a cut way back in October, DeLaet has four straight top-10 finishes, including a T2 result last week after shooting 7-under on the week at the Farmers. But in the two previous instances he’s played the WMPO he hasn’t done well, which includes a missed cut last year following a week where he finished ninth at the Farmers. Can he break that trend this week?

REWARD

This is one of those weird weeks where I feel anyone can capture this title. It could come down to who can handle the excitement from throngs of fans lining fairways and literally screaming at them in a tee box. No other tournament has that atmosphere. So who can handle that best? Seasoned golfers with a winning pedigree. You may disagree with these selections, or perhaps even deem them safe, but I hold to the belief that once you win on the PGA Tour or play in a two-some with Tiger on the weekend, you’re better suited to win under pressure or scrutiny than others who have yet to experience it.

Phil Mickelson

With three of his 41 career wins coming at TPC Scottsdale, including last year’s wire-to-wire win, Mickelson’s game is well-suited for a repeat victory. The record setting 28-under par, four-stroke win over Brandt Snedeker was boosted by an opening-day 60 when Lefty chased 59. In ’12, he finished T26 (6-under), but the only issue for the Arizona State alum is the back that caused him to withdraw from the Farmers. As of writing this, Phil has withdrawn from the pro-am but is intent on defending his title. There is reserved caution with this reward pick.

Brandt Snedeker

Putting up rounds of 64-66-65-65, Snedeker came in second to Mickelson last year, but his play was a sign of things to come, as he won in next week’s AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. While Snedeker hasn’t been on the same kind of tear as he started with last season, it only takes one week to get hot. TPC Scottsdale won’t present nearly the issues that Torrey Pines did as Snedeker missed the cut. With a T8 (14-under) in ’11, it’s a safe course to run a race horse like the 2012 FedEx Cup champion and six-time Tour winner.

Hunter Mahan

What I love about five-time Tour winner Mahan is his consistency. Even if he’s not scoring well, which happened last week in a T47 finish, he’s going to be in the fairway and he’s going to hit greens. If you consistently give yourself a shot at birdie, eventually the putts will drop and you’ll wind up with wins. That’s been the case for Zach Johnson’s success and it can be the same for Mahan, who’s victory last season came at the upcoming WGC-Accenture Match Play Championships, played in the Arizona desert. He’s played well at the WMPO plenty of times before, which includes victory in 2010 when he reached 16-under par. Last year, he was 14-under and finished T16. In ’11, he got to 10-under and finished T29. He’s a good bet to be in the mix for a top-20 and could come out well ahead of that projection.

Bill Haas

Like Mahan, Haas isn’t going to do much to derail his tournament. The five-time Tour winner and 2011 FedEx Cup champion sneaks in and grabs a win when you least expect it. He’s six-for-six in cuts made this year with two top 10s, and he has played well here. Last year, Haas finished T6 after reaching 18-under. The years before have been equally strong and he’s playing extremely well. He’s a good bet to be a Reward pick in two weeks at the Northern Trust Open, but don’t be surprised if he walks into Phoenix and posts some low numbers first.

Webb Simpson

With four PGA Tour victories including one this season, the Wake Forest grad is consistently putting his name atop leaderboards. He has four top-10 finishes in five starts this year. In the one time he didn’t, he still shot 18-under at the Humana Challenge. After a week off, Simpson comes in rested and ready to attack a tournament that he’s finished T8 in the past two times he’s played. His game has never been more refined than it is now and he is currently first on Tour in greens in regulation, strokes gained putting, birdie average and scoring average. He should go low once again this week.

RUIN

Projecting missed cuts or poor play at a tournament is never 100 percent as anyone can strike gold. But trends say certain players low on the Official World Golf Rankings just won’t perform well. And as they typically won’t, I don’t like to point them out as you generally know when someone is out of their element. But maybe you don’t know who Paul Trittler is. He’s not searchable on the OWGR. Well, the Scottsdale teaching pro has played some on the Champions Tour recently and played on the PGA Tour back in the late ’80s and early ’90s. He qualified by winning the Southwest Section of the PGA section title, but should notably be avoided. Here’s five more subtle selections for Ruin.

Robert Garrigus

Garrigus sits inside the top 100 of the OWGR, and while he has two 11th-place finishes at the WMPO in the past seven years including last year, he also has three missed cuts. He’s missed two cuts this year and didn’t break 70 last week at the Farmers. By no means is he a bad golfer, but he hasn’t played as well this season as he did leading up to last year’s tournament (he finished T6 at last year’s Farmers), which scares me heading into this week.

Tommy Gainey

This season has not gone well for Two Gloves with five missed cuts in seven events, including the past two weeks. Bottom line is he’s not playing well and he’s facing a tournament where he missed the cut last year and withdrew the year before following an opening round of 77. His rookie year he finished T8, but his game is sliding south quick from that result three years ago.

Trevor Immelman

There’s an allure to seeing Immelman’s name sitting at 10th on last week’s Farmer’s leaderboard. The 2008 Masters champion has had his health struggles since that time and trying to have a re-birth, but to this point has not yet strung together weekly play that deserves a fantasy selection. He’s missed three cuts in six events this year and missed the WMPO cut last year.

D.A. Points

Points has been just sliding in under the cutline the last five tournaments he’s played, but he’s done nothing significant to warrant thought. He opened with a 67 last year, which looks promising, but shot 74 on the second day and MC’d. It’s too streaky a proposition rostering him because in 2011 he did string together four rounds in the 60s, but he also opened ’12 with a 69 and then floundered the remaining three days. Trends suggest he’ll do the latter.

Angel Cabrera

Is it the Masters yet? No, so avoid Cabrera. This will be his first start of the calendar year and he missed the cut in his first two starts in October. He had two good opening rounds here last year, but fell apart on the weekend. He missed the cut the year before and prior to this sandwiched rounds of 70-plus around rounds in the 60s. When it turns April and Jim Nantz is whispering sultry phrases into my ears, I’ll consider Cabera, but until then I’m staying away.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the tournament, discuss the Omega Dubai Desert Challenge or if you have any fantasy lineup inquiries. Good luck!

This week’s picks:

Yahoo!

A: B. Watson (S), P. Reed

B: W. Simpson (S), G. DeLaet (S), B. Haas, H. Mahan

C: C. Hoffman (S), H. English

(Last week: 96 points; Winter segment: 676 points; Rank: 9,685)

PGATour.com

W. Simpson, G. DeLaet, R. Moore, H. Mahan

(Last week: 28 points; Season: 1,374; Rank: 5,791)

Golf Channel

Group 1: W. Simpson

Group 2: G. DeLaet

Group 3: J. Overton

Group 4: J.B. Holmes

(Last week: $163,115; Season: $1,466,561; Mulligan: $63,115; Rank: 16,435)

Omega Dubai Desert Challenge

Group 1: R. McIlroy

Group 2: B. Koepka

Group 3: S. Noh

Group 4: E. Molinari