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Fantasy Cheat Sheet: Frys.com Open

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It’s only been two days since the Presidents Cup wrapped up with a decisive U.S. victory over the International team and already the PGA Tour season has begun. As part of the changes to its scheduling, this week’s Frys.com Open at CordeValle Golf Club in San Martin, Calif., is the first official event on the new wrap-around 2013-14 calendar. As a result, the winner of the tournament will get 500 FedEx Cup points and a sweet little invite to the Masters.

Last year, Sweden’s Jonas Blixt picked up his first Tour victory in his 19th start at the Fry.com Open, earning a nice $900,000 paycheck and kickstarting a season where he would go on to win the Greenbrier Classic and make the TOUR Championship. And that was before the added incentives; suffice to say, there’s a lot to play for if you’re not among the world’s elite.

Many fantasy gamers will notice certain sites won’t start their fantasy season until the Hyundai Tournament of Champions in January. But most of us degenerate gamers will just find the few that are open and ride that high right through the winter break. So without further ado, here’s a look at the Frys.com Open and the golfer’s who could strike gold, those that will inevitably grace the top of the leader board and those combustibles you should run far away from. It’s Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

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Current form says a lot about how a golfer will perform, just as much as course familiarity. The sport is all about confidence, and if you enter a tourney with it, good things are likely to happen.While there is certainly risk with taking one of these five, now is also the time to take a risk or two, as you have plenty of time to dig yourself out of a hole and you may even get a big leg up.

Trevor Immelman

The former Masters champion has had a rough go of it the last few years with an array of injuries. But towards the latter part of this year, he finally got healthy. And what you saw was a golfer, still only 33, who’s found his swing again. He won the Web.com Tour’s Hotel Fitness Championship in September by a stroke over Patrick Cantlay, shooting in the mid 60s each day to hit 20-under. He’s a sneaky pick.

The International Team

Maybe you’re surprised not to see Marc Leishman on the reward list, and he for sure could wind up at the top, but the risk for him, Angel Cabrera and Hideki Matsuyama is one of fatigue. Coming off a long Tour season and then a draining Presidents Cup loss, having to fly to northern Cali and compete is a tough task to ask any golfer, but that’s not to say it can’t be done. Leishman, the 2012 Travelers champ, is the pick if you’re going with any of the three.

The Web.com Tour Graduates

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Russell Henley won the 2013 Sony Open.

The opposite of the Internationals is the newly minted kids coming out of the lesser Tour. But, man, are these kids talented and hungry. Earning one win, such as Russell Henley did last season in the first start of his career at the Sony, could jumpstart a career.

Max Homas won an NCAA individual title in June for the University of California. Justin Thomas led Alabama to a team title. Both then-amateurs led the U.S. to a Walker Cup win in New York in September.

Then there’s John Peterson, whom you may remember holding his own in the 2012 U.S. Open at the Olympic Club, finishing in a tie for fourth after needing sectional qualifying to get in. Peterson played nine events on Tour in 2012 and just won the Web.com Tour Finals, earning fully exempt status for this year.

And finally, you have many an unknown, but don’t rule them out. Hudson Swafford’s college teammates at Georgia were Henley, Harris English (also a first-time winner on Tour last year) and Brian Harman (in the field). Not bad for the three-time All-American who has played strong down the stretch. Not having a layoff and coming in hot and hungry could be a recipe for success, especially when so much is on the line.

Jeff Overton

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I wonder if this isn’t the year Overton finally breaks through and gets his first win. He has four second-place finishes on Tour and made the 2010 Ryder Cup team. That kind of talent means a win is coming sooner rather than later.

Jimmy Walker

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He was Mr. Consistency to start last season, going 15 tournaments without a missed cut. He also finished tied for fourth at last year’s Frys.com Open, shooting a tournament-low 62 on Sunday. He finished T2 behind Blixt at the Greenbrier, but he has yet to win on Tour, meaning you play him to get you points, just not necessarily the max.

REWARD

I strongly believe in asking yourself, “Who should win this tournament?” And until a golfer is faced with the position of defending a 54-hole lead, or being paired with Tiger Woods on a Sunday, or having to make a crucial, potentially tournament-winning putt, it can be hard to pull the trigger on someone under the radar. Let’s face it; you need points, so go for the chalk. They’re front runners for a reason, entering hot and with a proven track record of winning.

Jonas Blixt

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The defending champion is a must as he’s one of the Tour’s best putters. Winning at the Greenbrier only further cemented his status as one to watch in the years to come. All he needed was confidence (and I’m not talking about the kind that causes you to wear all orange when paired with Rickie Fowler.) Blixt has it.

Patrick Reed

Most of us love a heart-warming story. The golfer who survived six Monday qualifiers during the season, whose new wife caddies for him, and who finally breaks though with a win. But Reed’s win at the Wyndham Championship only solidified what many have known for a while— he’s here to stay. You don’t win back-to-back NCAA team titles at August State without moxie. Reed is on a roll and being in this field proves he wants his name at the top of the FedEx Cup standings for years to come.

Gary Woodland

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Woodland is a lot like Immelman in that he had some minor injuries derail him. Always one of the longest hitters on Tour, he needed help in the other aspects of his game. He won the Transitions Championship in 2011, but it wasn’t until this August, after a swing overhaul, that he won again, snagging the Reno-Tahoe Open title while the big names were playing the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. He parlayed that victory into a ride to the Tour Championship. Any multiple winner on a hot streak strongly needs to be considered.

Billy Horschel

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Horschel started the year on fire and finally picked up a win in April at the Zurich Classic. He admitted, however, that the middle part of his year was not fun as he grinded to make cuts and enjoy the game. Finally towards the end of the year, he began regaining the form that made him a regular fantasy selection. Now with a month break, the Christian Bale look alike should perform well in a tournament where he’s finished T29-T7 the last two years.

Guys Named Tim

Tim Clark, Tim Petrovic, Tim Herron. All have performed well over the years in this tournament, whether it was at CordeValle or previously in Scottsdale, Ariz. Clark, the long-puttered South African hasn’t won a tournament in three years, when he took home The Players Championship, but he is a staple of consistency tee-to-green and finished T6 in his only trip to CordeValle. You can make a strong case for last year’s runner-up Petrovic here as he’s the proverbial horse-for-the-course. Herron has also fared well with a T13 in 2010, but my pick would be Clark— a guy regularly in the fairway, creating birdie chances.

RUIN

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This section may as well be titled “Aaron Baddeley’s Guide to Missing Cuts.” And that’s the last thing you want to do in a fantasy game when any points earned can make the difference in a segment or season result. Two years ago, my season went swimmingly. I won multiple weeks and put up huge numbers. The overall and segment titles were easy pickin’. Last year, I won one week, but I was consistent every week and by the end was able to retain my overall title when others were hit-or-miss. Don’t handicap yourself with golfers that will regularly miss cuts.

Aaron Baddeley

Every MC is between the Aussie’s head right now. Normally a solid putter, he’s become too cerebral and his scores are rising. He started last year well, but then ran off a string of 10 straight MC’s and 12 in his last 14 tournaments. To be honest, I’m surprised he’s playing this tournament because no one needs an extended break and a six-pack of Foster’s more than Baddeley. But then again, maybe ending the FedEx Cup Playoffs early at The Barclays was enough time to fix what ails him. But for now, steer clear.

Rory Sabbatini

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I still laugh when I think of Rory getting into a war of words with Tiger six years ago. The irony is that’s all Sabbatini is— he’s a dog with tons of bark and no bite (and big hats). Every once in a while the dog will find a bone, toss a 65 out there and make you think he could put together four solid rounds. But then he tucks tail and runs back in the doghouse from whence he came.

Former Major Champions

With apologies to Immelman, who I believe to be trending upward, other past major champions are to be strongly avoided. Stewart Cink, Y.E. Yang, Retief Goosen and Mike Weir show no signs of making it to the weekend, Vijay Singh is still trying to find the next deer antler velvet loophole and Lucas Glover’s game seems to be directly tied to his facial hair growth. He’s clean-shaven at the moment, which means he’ll make like a follicle and get cut.

For all your fantasy questions and lineup inquiries, please contact me on Twitter @bricmiller. Enjoy the season!

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Brian Miller is a sports writer of over eight years and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, Miami Herald and Tallahassee Democrat. He's a fantasy golf nut and his golf novel will be published in spring 2014. You may find him on Twitter @bricmiller.

5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. Kimberly Baresel

    Oct 8, 2013 at 8:49 am

    Great job, Brian!

  2. patrick

    Oct 7, 2013 at 11:43 pm

    pretty cocky chirping major winners or any tour player for that matter. your trying to be funny but it sucks. how many pga events have you won?

  3. Lon

    Oct 7, 2013 at 10:50 pm

    I’ll tell you, the real winner this week is the city of CordeValle. Every time I come here it gets hard to leave.

    Great preview!

    • Brian Miller

      Oct 7, 2013 at 11:48 pm

      Shooter McGavin in the house!

    • Nick

      Oct 7, 2013 at 11:50 pm

      I’m starting to think you guys are putting something in the water

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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