Opinion & Analysis

The Dan Plan: A man on a mission

Published

11 years ago

Mar 20, 2013

Dan McLaughlin’s introduction to the game of golf began three years ago when he wondered if the public golf courses in his area would allow him to use their practice greens for hours at a time each day.

What makes McLaughlin’s story compelling isn’t the fact that he knew hardly anything about the game, or that he learned the most basic fundamentals of scoring – making one- and two-footers round and round the putting green. It’s that he quit his job in Portland, Ore., as a commercial photographer to focus on playing golf full-time. McLaughlin, a self-described 30-year-old of average build and marginal athletic talent, now carries a single-digit handicap. It only took him about 3,000 hours to reach a level that one out of every six golfers ever gets to.

McLaughlin, however, isn’t remotely satisfied with his progress. He isn’t interested in playing at his club’s next member-guest and carving his name into the winner’s plaque. You don’t quit your day job, the metaphorical equivalent of jumping out of a plane sans parachute, to be a quasi folk hero in your home town. McLaughlin is one-third into a 10,000-hour experiment that ends with him playing his way onto the PGA Tour. Should he succeed, he’ll be a 36-year-old rookie on the circuit. It’s an advanced age to make one’s debut, but certainly not outlandish. Allen Doyle and Jim Rutledge earned their cards as 47-year-olds. But Doyle and Rutledge were life-long golfers with solid amateur and professional records. McLaughlin will be attempting to break golf’s version of the sound barrier after a scant six years.

In terms of his development as a golfer, the 2013 season is going to be a key moment in the odyssey known as The Dan Plan. He has a full-season of tournament play in front of him and his goal is to be competitive.

“I want to play in at least 20 tourneys this year, but am not sure how many I will be able to afford,” McLaughlin said. “I’ll play in everything that is realistic to enter and want to play in all the big ones in Oregon such as the Oregon Am and Mid-Am, (and the Pacific Northwest Golf Association) Am and Mid-Am. My approach will be different in that I know what to expect this year and have a goal of shooting in the 70s. Last year I played in my first five tournaments ever and the only goal was to gain experience.”

McLaughlin won’t be in any position to consider a run at Q-School at the end of this year, but a full season of tournament play will give him and his team plenty of metrics to analyze as they tweak both practice and fitness routines for the next phase of his development. More importantly, his tournament performance will reveal something critical the numbers can’t measure — can he play his best golf when there’s something on the line?

A Game Of Numbers

The idea that would end up being The Dan Plan started to sketch itself about a year before McLaughlin quit his job. He began building up his savings over a five-year period to put towards business school. It took one finance class to make him reconsider his options. So instead of thinking about meal plans, books and lectures, McLaughlin began thinking about courses, coaches and clubs. The algebra he came up with, assuming he spent his money wisely, would allow him to dedicate the next four to six years of his life to chasing a little, white ball.

McLaughlin chose to play golf for some less-than-obvious reasons. He wanted to be outdoors and he didn’t want to do something that would eventually become boring. He also liked how golf held individuals accountable for their own successes and failures and, most importantly, it was unlike anything he had ever done before. As far as having any connection to the game, McLaughlin would’ve been hard-pressed to name 10 players on the Tour even after spotting him a Tiger and a Phil. All things considered, McLaughlin could’ve randomly decided to pick up a tennis racket or a bowling ball. For it wasn’t so much a passion for golf that interested McLaughlin as it was discovering what he calls “the human potential.”

The idea that hard work, in particular the concept of deliberate practice, can trump innate talent has been written about at length in the following best-selling books — “Talent Is Overrated” by Geoff Colvin and “The Talent Code” by Daniel Coyle. The basic premise of both books is that talent isn’t born, it’s made. Success is ultimately achieved through persistence, sweat and a proper use of one’s time. A third book of note, and the one that heavily inspired McLaughlin is “Outliers: The Story Of Success” by Malcolm Gladwell. In the book, Gladwell claims that the key to success in any field, to a large extent, is the ability to practice a specific task for a total of about 10,000 hours.

Can someone, if they are willing to train consistently over the course of that many hours, become a bona-fide golfing savant? Anyone who has ever played the game long enough might scoff. There’s a reason why so few golfers, even those who excelled as juniors, ever have a sniff at the Tour, let alone make a successful career playing at the highest professional level. Whether through naiveté or over-exuberance, McLaughlin was unfazed by the daunting odds. But when it came to convincing others, such as his first golf coach, it was definitely a tough sell.

“To be honest, I had about 15 seconds for him, maybe 10,” Christopher Smith, lead golf instructor at Pumpkin Ridge told Golf Magazine in an interview. “I was kind of offended by how easy he thought this was going to be.”

McLaughlin’s foray into golf had a genuine Dickensian quality. His gear, courtesy of Nike, consisted of two pairs of shoes, a hand-me-down rain jacket and an off-the-rack Method putter. Lessons and practice consisted of learning to putt and rolling 100 balls from inside a 3-foot circle. At first, McLaughlin struggled to hole 80 percent of his putts. After about a month, he was averaging over 90 percent and steadily increasing the distance.

A repertoire of different putting games kept McLaughlin’s practice sessions from getting stale. One of the games he played, called the “6-foot call shot,” consisted of rolling the ball from four different spots six feet away from the hole. Before addressing the ball, McLaughlin would “call out” which part of the hole he was aiming for as well as the speed at which the ball would drop. McLaughlin cut his teeth on the putting green week after week, finally adding chipping practice deep into the summer.

“Initially, I don’t think Chris thought I would stick to it, but after a year of just chipping and putting he knew I was serious,” McLaughlin said.

Imagine spending three months just working on holing putts. While other weekend golfers warm up for 10 or 15 minutes on the practice green before heading out to the first tee to battle their chronic slice, McLaughlin is wearing out the face on his putter.

We’re Talking Practice

Ask an aspiring recreational golfer how much better they’d play if they just had the time to practice all day long and you’ll likely hear a grand tale about winning tournaments and breaking course records. Then ask that same golfer if they’re willing to practice up to eight hours a day, six days a week, come rain or come shine and they might need a minute or two think it over.

McLaughlin may have come into the game without truly understanding the rigors of golf, but there was nothing bush-league about his dedication. In addition to the thousands of hours he’s logged standing over a golf ball, McLaughlin has spent a significant amount of time at the gym training like a world-class athlete. His workout routine consists of equal parts strength training, cardio and plyometrics. Olympic lifts, squats, lunges, hip rotations, torso twists and medicine ball throws make up a fraction of the exercises that have allowed McLaughlin, who weighs a modest 150 pounds, to generate 998.2 watts of power (Average Power = square root of 4.9 x body mass(kg) x square root of jump distance(m) x 9.81). To put into terms a golfer can appreciate, McLaughlin swings his driver in excess of 105 mph. He and his physical therapist, Shawn Dailey, are hoping to get his swing velocity up to Tour-level standards by the end of the year.

“I’ve seen many golfers who have come and have years of pain, playing with pain and changing their swing around pain,” Dailey said. “Dan has the advantage that he’s a blank slate. We can develop a very efficient, strong swing for him. A lot of his strength and power exercises revolve around his legs, his glutes, his core.”

While it must seem like fun to be able to workout and beat range balls day after day (minus the paycheck), the risk of burnout is great. The honeymoon period of The Dan Plan came to abrupt end after about eight months. At that time, McLaughlin was still limited to practicing with a pitching wedge and putter, and playing golf from inside 40 yards. He was also facing his first winter in Oregon as a golfer when the average temperature is usually 40 degrees and the playing conditions are almost always wet. On his website blog, McLaughlin asked himself a very basic question. “So, Dan, why are you doing this to yourself? And, if nobody else cares, will you still follow through?”

He considered quitting.

“Like anyone who is starting a business it can be tough to juggle everything in your life,” McLaughlin said.

The day after feeling miserable about his situation, he ventured out to Heron Lakes in the rain. Out there on his own, McLaughlin saw a tree fall to the ground without any obvious provocation. It immediately reminded him of a quintessential philosophical question — can something exist without being perceived? Maybe it was pure accident or maybe it was serendipity that caused the tree to fall. Either way, the tree left an impression, no pun intended. McLaughlin would occasionally write about experiencing fatigue and needing a short break from golf, but he would never get as low as he had that first autumn.

McLaughlin reached his first major milestone a month later, surpassing the 1,000-hour mark. In the spring of 2011, McLaughlin began to hit full shots with his pitching wedge. He also began working with a sand wedge. He didn’t look like much of a golfer slinging a mostly empty stand bag across his shoulders, but McLaughlin was coming close to outgrowing his beginner status.

A key point in his development may have occurred a couple of months earlier when McLaughlin visited the IMG campus in Bradenton, Fla. — a heralded golfing academy that has graduated notable alumni such as Paula Creamer, Michele Wie, Sean O’Hair and Peter Uihlein to name just a few.

McLaughlin went to Bradenton to measure his training against what world-class juniors are able to receive when budget isn’t a limiting factor. He was also able to observe some of the best teenagers in the country strike balls with machine-like precision. McLaughlin admitted that he felt intimidated, but he left IMG encouraged about his future.

“Back then I only had three clubs and had never even made a full swing,” McLaughlin said. “I didn’t even know what it meant to play golf, just chipped and putted and had no clue what this wonderful game is all about. Back then I wanted to join those kids in ripping drives and now that I am confident on the course I would love to go back and play with or against them.”

After one year, five months and four days on the plan, McLaughlin passed the 2,000 hour mark. He wasn’t yet competing in tournaments like he had originally, and wrongly, predicted when he first started. But he was feeling upbeat about his progress. As for his relationship with golf, what started off as awkward as a blind date had turned into a genuine love affair. Days spent putting and chipping were now being augmented with rounds at Heron Lakes and Columbia Edgewater.

“I think once I actually understood the game and was playing the game I started developing a passion for it,” McLaughlin said. “I was completely hooked.”

McLaughlin was now carrying seven clubs (a putter, 56-degree, 52-degree, pitching wedge, 8-iron, 6-iron and a 3-hybrid). He was playing from the white tees and posting scores in the 90s and 80s. As the year drew to a close, his handicap fell to 11.4 with strong showings in his final two rounds in which he posted scores of 82 and 83.

Nearly two years of laborious and focused practice had gone into turning McLaughlin into a golfer. It’s a number most avid golfers who take up the game later in life can’t fathom. And while McLaughlin understands that the average person can’t commit the same time or resources into their game as he has, he thinks everyone can benefit by being more attentive to their practice habits.

“No matter how much time you have, practice interweaving,” McLaughlin said. “Try to not hit the same club twice and if you do, reset your brain by going through your routine each time. We learn optimally by having to adjust to new situations and circumstances and hitting ball after ball is nothing like the actual game, so practice randomly and with consequences.”

The Tipping Point

McLaughlin’s new wedges arrived at his doorstep a few weeks ago. He posted a photo of his new clubs (still in their shrink-wrapped plastic) on Facebook. He made a few giddy remarks on Twitter. With his initials “DM” stamped in a random pattern along the sole of his 46-degree, you couldn’t blame McLaughlin for feeling a little bit like a rockstar, especially if you’re treated like one by the crew at Titleist.

McLaughlin toured the Titlelist headquarters in Carlesbad, Calif., in February. There he saw the racks of Vokey wedges that serve as an equipment archive for the some of modern golf’s greatest players. He met with “Voke” himself, and had his picture taken with the legendary craftsman. Later on he stopped by the Oceanside Test Facility and learned enough about lofts, bounce angles and grinds to fill a small textbook.

The “wedge archive” at the Vokey Tour department in Carlsbad, Calif.

He also underwent a rigorous two-hour fitting in which he executed everything from bunker shots to bump-and-runs. The club-fitters at Titleist built four new clubs for McLaughlin. Two of them are standard SM4 wedges (46 and 50, each with eight degrees of bounce). The other pair (54 and 58 degree) are Vokey TVD grind. All four wedges have True Temper Dynamic Gold S200 shafts and Golf Pride New Decade Multicompound grips in green. McLaughlin, who must’ve felt like a child at a toy store, hopes he can return to Carlesbad for a full club fitting, seeing as how some his older clubs are no longer adequate for his swing.

Life has changed in some subtle and not so subtle ways for McLaughlin. In his blog, McLaughlin occasionally talks about reaching a tipping point. Coincidentally or not, the same author who penned “Outliers,” wrote an earlier work called “The Tipping Point” which describes how certain social conditions combine to bring about change quickly and unexpectedly. In terms of reaching critical mass, The Dan Plan is still in the early stages of gaining notoriety, but the days of rolling putts on soggy greens in relative obscurity are drawing to an end.

Over the past year McLaughlin has been gearing up for tournament play. His first official event was staged at Pumpkin Ridge, the site where the LPGA plays its Safeway Classic and where Tiger Woods won his unprecedented third consecutive U.S. Amateur. A gallery of sorts consisting of an AP writer and two cameramen watched a nervous McLaughlin shoot an 86. A decent score for a golfer getting his first taste of competition.

As McLaughlin has evolved, so has his team. He and his first coach severed ties last July over what McLaughlin describes as a communication rift. His relationship with Nike, which wasn’t an official relationship at all, also came to end around the same time.

“Nike decided to go with Rory instead of The Dan Plan and I have to admit that his chances of winning a major are a little better than mine,” said McLaughlin, jokingly. “[We] parted amicably. I appreciate how generous they were to provide my first set of clubs and wish them continued success with their new gear.”

McLaughlin and his new coach, Adrian Burtner, began working together last October. Last winter they started using TrackMan to enhance their training sessions. McLaughlin, in particular, has been engrossed with posting combine scores. The TrackMan combine consists of hitting 60 shots to nine different targets at various distances. Your score is tabulated based on how precise each shot is executed. In a lot of ways it’s like taking aim at plastic ducks at a carnival — only much, much harder. A good score for a Tour professional is an 83. McLaughlin, by comparison, posted a 66.9 his first time through the simulator. TrackMan has also allowed McLaughlin to accurately measure his swing efficiency for every club in the bag.

While a huge component of The Dan Plan revolves around golf-specific training and improving his performance on the course, McLaughlin is increasingly spending time raising awareness and securing additional funding. Although McLaughlin has enough money squirreled away to theoretically finish his project, his self-funding strategy will greatly limit his opportunities to gain exposure and further enhance his training.

“I would really love to start playing in the smaller mini tours as early as this year if possible,” McLaughlin said. “Depending on budget, I would like to enter a couple gateway tour events to get a taste of what golf is like at that level. From there the goal would be to play in a full series of them next year and follow that with Q-School.”

In the past, McLaughlin has limited himself to accepting donations online through his website. But he and his newly hired publicist have been investigating alternative forms of fund raising including speaking engagements and corporate sponsorship. McLaughlin has also raised a few eyebrows when he recently issued a public challenge to Michael Phelps to play against him in an exhibition match this summer. There are some people who have been following The Dan Plan who feel that the Phelps match (should it ever happen) might detract from the project’s mission and its sincerity.

McLaughlin will certainly feel pressure this year. His tournament performances will be judged and graded. If he finds and accepts corporate sponsors, he’ll be expected to make good on that investment. There are countless examples of golfers who end up being derailed by expectations — both internal and external — rather than by lack of ability or desire.

There are plenty of individuals that would take great pleasure in watching McLaughlin strike out on the mini tours. But there’s an even greater contingent of supporters who have been following his story. People genuinely love an underdog and McLaughlin is probably the biggest underdog since Rocky Balboa. And while’s he not expecting anyone to unveil a bronze statue in his honor, McLaughlin would love to see a day that his wedges earn a place on the Titleist archive rack next to all the others that have been swung by the best in the game.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

7 hours ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

4 days ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

7 days ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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