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The Dan Plan: A man on a mission

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Dan McLaughlin’s introduction to the game of golf began three years ago when he wondered if the public golf courses in his area would allow him to use their practice greens for hours at a time each day.

What makes McLaughlin’s story compelling isn’t the fact that he knew hardly anything about the game, or that he learned the most basic fundamentals of scoring – making one- and two-footers round and round the putting green. It’s that he quit his job in Portland, Ore., as a commercial photographer to focus on playing golf full-time. McLaughlin, a self-described 30-year-old of average build and marginal athletic talent, now carries a single-digit handicap. It only took him about 3,000 hours to reach a level that one out of every six golfers ever gets to.

McLaughlin, however, isn’t remotely satisfied with his progress. He isn’t interested in playing at his club’s next member-guest and carving his name into the winner’s plaque. You don’t quit your day job, the metaphorical equivalent of jumping out of a plane sans parachute, to be a quasi folk hero in your home town. McLaughlin is one-third into a 10,000-hour experiment that ends with him playing his way onto the PGA Tour. Should he succeed, he’ll be a 36-year-old rookie on the circuit. It’s an advanced age to make one’s debut, but certainly not outlandish. Allen Doyle and Jim Rutledge earned their cards as 47-year-olds. But Doyle and Rutledge were life-long golfers with solid amateur and professional records. McLaughlin will be attempting to break golf’s version of the sound barrier after a scant six years.

In terms of his development as a golfer, the 2013 season is going to be a key moment in the odyssey known as The Dan Plan. He has a full-season of tournament play in front of him and his goal is to be competitive.

“I want to play in at least 20 tourneys this year, but am not sure how many I will be able to afford,” McLaughlin said. “I’ll play in everything that is realistic to enter and want to play in all the big ones in Oregon such as the Oregon Am and Mid-Am, (and the Pacific Northwest Golf Association) Am and Mid-Am. My approach will be different in that I know what to expect this year and have a goal of shooting in the 70s.  Last year I played in my first five tournaments ever and the only goal was to gain experience.”

McLaughlin won’t be in any position to consider a run at Q-School at the end of this year, but a full season of tournament play will give him and his team plenty of metrics to analyze as they tweak both practice and fitness routines for the next phase of his development. More importantly, his tournament performance will reveal something critical the numbers can’t measure — can he play his best golf when there’s something on the line?

A Game Of Numbers

Photo Courtesy of thedanplan.com

The idea that would end up being The Dan Plan started to sketch itself about a year before McLaughlin quit his job. He began building up his savings over a five-year period to put towards business school. It took one finance class to make him reconsider his options. So instead of thinking about meal plans, books and lectures, McLaughlin began thinking about courses, coaches and clubs. The algebra he came up with, assuming he spent his money wisely, would allow him to dedicate the next four to six years of his life to chasing a little, white ball.

McLaughlin chose to play golf for some less-than-obvious reasons. He wanted to be outdoors and he didn’t want to do something that would eventually become boring. He also liked how golf held individuals accountable for their own successes and failures and, most importantly, it was unlike anything he had ever done before. As far as having any connection to the game, McLaughlin would’ve been hard-pressed to name 10 players on the Tour even after spotting him a Tiger and a Phil. All things considered, McLaughlin could’ve randomly decided to pick up a tennis racket or a bowling ball. For it wasn’t so much a passion for golf that interested McLaughlin as it was discovering what he calls “the human potential.”

The idea that hard work, in particular the concept of deliberate practice, can trump innate talent has been written about at length in the following best-selling books — “Talent Is Overrated” by Geoff Colvin and “The Talent Code” by Daniel Coyle. The basic premise of both books is that talent isn’t born, it’s made. Success is ultimately achieved through persistence, sweat and a proper use of one’s time. A third book of note, and the one that heavily inspired McLaughlin is “Outliers: The Story Of Success” by Malcolm Gladwell. In the book, Gladwell claims that the key to success in any field, to a large extent, is the ability to practice a specific task for a total of about 10,000 hours.

Can someone, if they are willing to train consistently over the course of that many hours, become a bona-fide golfing savant? Anyone who has ever played the game long enough might scoff. There’s a reason why so few golfers, even those who excelled as juniors, ever have a sniff at the Tour, let alone make a successful career playing at the highest professional level. Whether through naiveté or over-exuberance, McLaughlin was unfazed by the daunting odds. But when it came to convincing others, such as his first golf coach, it was definitely a tough sell.

“To be honest, I had about 15 seconds for him, maybe 10,” Christopher Smith, lead golf instructor at Pumpkin Ridge told Golf Magazine in an interview. “I was kind of offended by how easy he thought this was going to be.”

McLaughlin’s foray into golf had a genuine Dickensian quality. His gear, courtesy of Nike, consisted of two pairs of shoes, a hand-me-down rain jacket and an off-the-rack Method putter. Lessons and practice consisted of learning to putt and rolling 100 balls from inside a 3-foot circle. At first, McLaughlin struggled to hole 80 percent of his putts. After about a month, he was averaging over 90 percent and steadily increasing the distance.

A repertoire of different putting games kept McLaughlin’s practice sessions from getting stale. One of the games he played, called the “6-foot call shot,” consisted of rolling the ball from four different spots six feet away from the hole. Before addressing the ball, McLaughlin would “call out” which part of the hole he was aiming for as well as the speed at which the ball would drop. McLaughlin cut his teeth on the putting green week after week, finally adding chipping practice deep into the summer.

“Initially, I don’t think Chris thought I would stick to it, but after a year of just chipping and putting he knew I was serious,” McLaughlin said.

Imagine spending three months just working on holing putts. While other weekend golfers warm up for 10 or 15 minutes on the practice green before heading out to the first tee to battle their chronic slice, McLaughlin is wearing out the face on his putter.

We’re Talking Practice

Photo Courtesy of thedanplan.com

Ask an aspiring recreational golfer how much better they’d play if they just had the time to practice all day long and you’ll likely hear a grand tale about winning tournaments and breaking course records. Then ask that same golfer if they’re willing to practice up to eight hours a day, six days a week, come rain or come shine and they might need a minute or two think it over.

McLaughlin may have come into the game without truly understanding the rigors of golf, but there was nothing bush-league about his dedication. In addition to the thousands of hours he’s logged standing over a golf ball, McLaughlin has spent a significant amount of time at the gym training like a world-class athlete. His workout routine consists of equal parts strength training, cardio and plyometrics. Olympic lifts, squats, lunges, hip rotations, torso twists and medicine ball throws make up a fraction of the exercises that have allowed McLaughlin, who weighs a modest 150 pounds, to generate 998.2 watts of power (Average Power = square root of 4.9 x body mass(kg) x square root of jump distance(m) x 9.81). To put into terms a golfer can appreciate, McLaughlin swings his driver in excess of 105 mph. He and his physical therapist, Shawn Dailey, are hoping to get his swing velocity up to Tour-level standards by the end of the year.

“I’ve seen many golfers who have come and have years of pain, playing with pain and changing their swing around pain,” Dailey said. “Dan has the advantage that he’s a blank slate. We can develop a very efficient, strong swing for him. A lot of his strength and power exercises revolve around his legs, his glutes, his core.”

While it must seem like fun to be able to workout and beat range balls day after day (minus the paycheck), the risk of burnout is great. The honeymoon period of The Dan Plan came to abrupt end after about eight months. At that time, McLaughlin was still limited to practicing with a pitching wedge and putter, and playing golf from inside 40 yards. He was also facing his first winter in Oregon as a golfer when the average temperature is usually 40 degrees and the playing conditions are almost always wet. On his website blog, McLaughlin asked himself a very basic question. “So, Dan, why are you doing this to yourself? And, if nobody else cares, will you still follow through?”

He considered quitting.

“Like anyone who is starting a business it can be tough to juggle everything in your life,” McLaughlin said.

The day after feeling miserable about his situation, he ventured out to Heron Lakes in the rain. Out there on his own, McLaughlin saw a tree fall to the ground without any obvious provocation. It immediately reminded him of a quintessential philosophical question — can something exist without being perceived? Maybe it was pure accident or maybe it was serendipity that caused the tree to fall. Either way, the tree left an impression, no pun intended. McLaughlin would occasionally write about experiencing fatigue and needing a short break from golf, but he would never get as low as he had that first autumn.

McLaughlin reached his first major milestone a month later, surpassing the 1,000-hour mark. In the spring of 2011, McLaughlin began to hit full shots with his pitching wedge. He also began working with a sand wedge. He didn’t look like much of a golfer slinging a mostly empty stand bag across his shoulders, but McLaughlin was coming close to outgrowing his beginner status.

A key point in his development may have occurred a couple of months earlier when McLaughlin visited the IMG campus in Bradenton, Fla. — a heralded golfing academy that has graduated notable alumni such as Paula Creamer, Michele Wie, Sean O’Hair and Peter Uihlein to name just a few.

McLaughlin went to Bradenton to measure his training against what world-class juniors are able to receive when budget isn’t a limiting factor. He was also able to observe some of the best teenagers in the country strike balls with machine-like precision. McLaughlin admitted that he felt intimidated, but he left IMG encouraged about his future.

“Back then I only had three clubs and had never even made a full swing,” McLaughlin said. “I didn’t even know what it meant to play golf, just chipped and putted and had no clue what this wonderful game is all about.  Back then I wanted to join those kids in ripping drives and now that I am confident on the course I would love to go back and play with or against them.”

After one year, five months and four days on the plan, McLaughlin passed the 2,000 hour mark. He wasn’t yet competing in tournaments like he had originally, and wrongly, predicted when he first started. But he was feeling upbeat about his progress. As for his relationship with golf, what started off as awkward as a blind date had turned into a genuine love affair. Days spent putting and chipping were now being augmented with rounds at Heron Lakes and Columbia Edgewater.

“I think once I actually understood the game and was playing the game I started developing a passion for it,” McLaughlin said. “I was completely hooked.”

McLaughlin was now carrying seven clubs (a putter, 56-degree, 52-degree, pitching wedge, 8-iron, 6-iron and a 3-hybrid). He was playing from the white tees and posting scores in the 90s and 80s. As the year drew to a close, his handicap fell to 11.4 with strong showings in his final two rounds in which he posted scores of 82 and 83.

Nearly two years of laborious and focused practice had gone into turning McLaughlin into a golfer. It’s a number most avid golfers who take up the game later in life can’t fathom. And while McLaughlin understands that the average person can’t commit the same time or resources into their game as he has, he thinks everyone can benefit by being more attentive to their practice habits.

“No matter how much time you have, practice interweaving,” McLaughlin said. “Try to not hit the same club twice and if you do, reset your brain by going through your routine each time. We learn optimally by having to adjust to new situations and circumstances and hitting ball after ball is nothing like the actual game, so practice randomly and with consequences.”

The Tipping Point

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McLaughlin’s new wedges arrived at his doorstep a few weeks ago. He posted a photo of his new clubs (still in their shrink-wrapped plastic) on Facebook. He made a few giddy remarks on Twitter. With his initials “DM” stamped in a random pattern along the sole of his 46-degree, you couldn’t blame McLaughlin for feeling a little bit like a rockstar, especially if you’re treated like one by the crew at Titleist.

McLaughlin toured the Titlelist headquarters in Carlesbad, Calif., in February. There he saw the racks of Vokey wedges that serve as an equipment archive for the some of modern golf’s greatest players. He met with “Voke” himself, and had his picture taken with the legendary craftsman. Later on he stopped by the Oceanside Test Facility and learned enough about lofts, bounce angles and grinds to fill a small textbook.

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The “wedge archive” at the Vokey Tour department in Carlsbad, Calif.

He also underwent a rigorous two-hour fitting in which he executed everything from bunker shots to bump-and-runs. The club-fitters at Titleist built four new clubs for McLaughlin. Two of them are standard SM4 wedges (46 and 50, each with eight degrees of bounce). The other pair (54 and 58 degree) are Vokey TVD grind. All four wedges have True Temper Dynamic Gold S200 shafts and Golf Pride New Decade Multicompound grips in green. McLaughlin, who must’ve felt like a child at a toy store, hopes he can return to Carlesbad for a full club fitting, seeing as how some his older clubs are no longer adequate for his swing.

Life has changed in some subtle and not so subtle ways for McLaughlin. In his blog, McLaughlin occasionally talks about reaching a tipping point. Coincidentally or not, the same author who penned “Outliers,” wrote an earlier work called “The Tipping Point” which describes how certain social conditions combine to bring about change quickly and unexpectedly. In terms of reaching critical mass, The Dan Plan is still in the early stages of gaining notoriety, but the days of rolling putts on soggy greens in relative obscurity are drawing to an end.

Over the past year McLaughlin has been gearing up for tournament play. His first official event was staged at Pumpkin Ridge, the site where the LPGA plays its Safeway Classic and where Tiger Woods won his unprecedented third consecutive U.S. Amateur. A gallery of sorts consisting of an AP writer and two cameramen watched a nervous McLaughlin shoot an 86. A decent score for a golfer getting his first taste of competition.

As McLaughlin has evolved, so has his team. He and his first coach severed ties last July over what McLaughlin describes as a communication rift. His relationship with Nike, which wasn’t an official relationship at all, also came to end around the same time.

“Nike decided to go with Rory instead of The Dan Plan and I have to admit that his chances of winning a major are a little better than mine,” said McLaughlin, jokingly. “[We] parted amicably. I appreciate how generous they were to provide my first set of clubs and wish them continued success with their new gear.”

McLaughlin and his new coach, Adrian Burtner, began working together last October. Last winter they started using TrackMan to enhance their training sessions. McLaughlin, in particular, has been engrossed with posting combine scores. The TrackMan combine consists of hitting 60 shots to nine different targets at various distances. Your score is tabulated based on how precise each shot is executed. In a lot of ways it’s like taking aim at plastic ducks at a carnival — only much, much harder. A good score for a Tour professional is an 83. McLaughlin, by comparison, posted a 66.9 his first time through the simulator. TrackMan has also allowed McLaughlin to accurately measure his swing efficiency for every club in the bag.

dan-plan-charts

While a huge component of The Dan Plan revolves around golf-specific training and improving his performance on the course, McLaughlin is increasingly spending time raising awareness and securing additional funding. Although McLaughlin has enough money squirreled away to theoretically finish his project, his self-funding strategy will greatly limit his opportunities to gain exposure and further enhance his training.

“I would really love to start playing in the smaller mini tours as early as this year if possible,” McLaughlin said. “Depending on budget, I would like to enter a couple gateway tour events to get a taste of what golf is like at that level. From there the goal would be to play in a full series of them next year and follow that with Q-School.”

In the past, McLaughlin has limited himself to accepting donations online through his website. But he and his newly hired publicist have been investigating alternative forms of fund raising including speaking engagements and corporate sponsorship. McLaughlin has also raised a few eyebrows when he recently issued a public challenge to Michael Phelps to play against him in an exhibition match this summer. There are some people who have been following The Dan Plan who feel that the Phelps match (should it ever happen) might detract from the project’s mission and its sincerity.

McLaughlin will certainly feel pressure this year. His tournament performances will be judged and graded. If he finds and accepts corporate sponsors, he’ll be expected to make good on that investment. There are countless examples of golfers who end up being derailed by expectations — both internal and external — rather than by lack of ability or desire.

There are plenty of individuals that would take great pleasure in watching McLaughlin strike out on the mini tours. But there’s an even greater contingent of supporters who have been following his story. People genuinely love an underdog and McLaughlin is probably the biggest underdog since Rocky Balboa. And while’s he not expecting anyone to unveil a bronze statue in his honor, McLaughlin would love to see a day that his wedges earn a place on the Titleist archive rack next to all the others that have been swung by the best in the game.

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Rusty Cage is a contributing writer for GolfWRX, one of the leading publications online for news, information and resources for the connected golfer. His articles have covered a broad spectrum of topics - equipment and apparel reviews, interviews with industry leaders, analysis of the pro game, and everything in between. Rusty's path into golf has been an unusual one. He took up the game in his late thirties, as suggested by his wife, who thought it might be a good way for her husband to grow closer to her father. The plan worked out a little too well. As his attraction to the game grew, so did his desire to take up writing again after what amounted to 15-year hiatus from sports journalism dating back to college. In spite of spending over a dozen years working in the technology sector as a backend programmer in New York City, Rusty saw an opportunity with GolfWRX and ran with it. A graduate from Boston University with a Bachelor's in journalism, Rusty's long term aspirations are to become one of the game's leading writers, rising to the standard set by modern-day legends like George Peper, Mark Frost and Dan Jenkins. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: August 2014 Fairway Executive Podcast Interview http://golfindustrytrainingassociation.com/17-rusty-cage-golf-writer (During this interview I discuss how golf industry professionals can leverage emerging technologies to connect with their audience.)

9 Comments

9 Comments

  1. Pingback: The More You Improve, The Harder It Gets | Self Help QA

  2. Pingback: The More You Improve, The Harder It Gets : The Art of Non-Conformity

  3. 8thehardway

    Mar 22, 2013 at 10:22 am

    He would be a great candidate for Big Break… unique and compelling story, installed fan base, mutual promotion/exposure, etc.

  4. joe

    Mar 21, 2013 at 1:52 pm

    Awesome! wish i had the balls to do this!

  5. Marshall

    Mar 21, 2013 at 10:21 am

    Loved the article! I have been playing golf for about 8 months, and I can fully relate to his mission. I’ve put in about 1,500 hours while also attending school. I’ll definitely continue following the Dan Plan.

    Good luck and I look forward to updates!

    • Rusty Cage

      Mar 21, 2013 at 10:44 am

      Marshall,

      Thanks for sharing your experience. Feel free to contact Dan McLaughlin directly through this website – http://thedanplan.com – he’s open to discussing different ways to practice and train. Best of luck on your journey.

  6. Frank Dolan

    Mar 20, 2013 at 5:08 pm

    Another great article Rusty. This one was a homerun – keep up the good work I enjoy them all.

    Frank Dolan
    “The Villages”, FL

  7. j

    Mar 20, 2013 at 1:14 pm

    It’s good for the game. Best wishes man. Look forward to the updates.

  8. Ed L

    Mar 20, 2013 at 1:06 pm

    I’ve been following The Dan Plan for over a year now, competed against Dan in a few local events last summer and Fall and was paired with him in the 2nd round of the PNGA Mid-Am. As a golfer with almost 30 years invested in the game, it has been fascinating to observe Dan’s journey and see the response from other golfers.

    The biggest thing that Dan has going for him is his determination and dedication to the entire project. What drove him to undertake this project wasn’t really a love for the game, but a curiosity about the nature/nurture argument and the forces that contribute to achieving excellence in any field. Whether he makes it on the PGA Tour at the end of 10,000 hours of practice isn’t the point of the whole venture, but merely a measurable goal to a hypothesis.

    For me, it’s hard to imagine any golfer not admiring the idea of truly dedicating one’s time and energy to see just how good you could get. I’ve been very surprised at some of the negative reactions from other golfers regarding Dan’s quest. I would think some of those negative vibes are just from jealousy. I’d guess that others feel offended by a novice having such grand, specific goals to be achieved in such a short time frame (relatively speaking). The notion that you have to pay your dues and suffer like the rest of us golfers in order to achieve anything in this demanding game.

    The Dan Plan embodies the dreams that many of us golfers have. How good could I be if I really dedicated myself to practicing? Do I have the dedication to persist and see it through? Dan has made the sacrifices to make it happen and it’s very apparent that he’s focused on seeing through in the right way. Can’t wait to see where he ends up at the 10,000 hour mark.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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