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The Wedge Guy: Maybe you play harder golf courses than the pros

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Watching PGA Tour golf has become something I don’t do a lot these days. Why? Well, for two reasons.

First, watching the best players in the world regularly run roughshod over pussycat golf courses just isn’t that entertaining for me. Did you realize that the top five players finished 101 under par at the Northern Trust? And the 70 players who made the cut totaled 673 under par!

Just proves that if you give them wide soft fairways, receptive and smooth greens, and no wind, they can simply tear it up.

The other is when they run into a “US Open-like” golf course like Olympia Fields this past weekend, it seems to become a putting contest as the field struggles mightily to break par.

The puzzling thing to me is just what was it that made Olympia Fields so tough?

From what I read, the fairways are “as narrow as 30 yards” on some holes. So . . . aren’t these guys supposed to be the best shotmakers in the world? From the stats I’ve reviewed, very few of these guys were able to hit even half the fairways. Just to share my perspective on this, my own little country club has fairways much narrower – some as slender as 17 yards, and only 3-4 as wide as 30.

For the best players in the world, 30 yards seems pretty generous.

But then there’s the length thing. For such a “difficult” golf course, they were able to reach both par five holes in two – if they could hit a solid drive in the fairway. And of the other 16 holes, only two of them required approach shots with more than a 7- or 8-iron, and at least 6-7 of those holes routinely gave them approach shots of less than 120 yards. That’s sand wedge range for these guys.

So, with each reachable par-fives, and at least 20-25 other wedge approaches, 4 under wins? Of course, we saw our share of approach shots that covered flags, but we also witnessed a large number of short irons and wedge shots that were uninspiring, in addition to drives that found uncharted zip codes.

It seems to me these guys would be much more precise in their shotmaking. Guess I was spoiled by growing up watching Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller and the like, shooting great scores while routinely hitting long and middle irons into greens.

But here’s the point of today’s post. I think most of you are playing a tougher golf course than these PGA Tour professionals regularly encounter, if you measure a course’s difficulty by the length of your approach shots.

Think back to your most recent rounds and count how many approach shots you hit with a short iron or wedge? Not nearly as many as you saw this past weekend, I’ll bet. If you think about it this way, you’ll realize you are really playing a much tougher course day in and day out than these guys do. So give yourself a break, OK?

Oh, and one other thing that really puzzled me about Olympia Fields–did you notice how many putts kept coming up short? I was shocked by that, as none of the pin placements seemed to be that treacherous that a putt that passed the hole would get away from them.

But in the end, it turned into a putting bomb contest, with Dustin Johnson draining a long one to get into a playoff, and Jon Rahm doing it right back to him on the first playoff hole. Guess if you really like to watch putting, these guys do put on a helluva show.

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Terry Koehler is a fourth generation Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M University. Over his 40-year career in the golf industry, he has created over 100 putter designs, sets of irons and drivers, and in 2014, he put together the team that reintroduced the Ben Hogan brand to the golf equipment industry. Since the early 2000s, Terry has been a prolific writer, sharing his knowledge as “The Wedge Guy”.   But his most compelling work is in the wedge category. Since he first patented his “Koehler Sole” in the early 1990s, he has been challenging “conventional wisdom” reflected in ‘tour design’ wedges. The performance of his wedge designs have stimulated other companies to move slightly more mass toward the top of the blade in their wedges, but none approach the dramatic design of his Edison Forged wedges, which have been robotically proven to significantly raise the bar for wedge performance. Terry serves as Chairman and Director of Innovation for Edison Golf – check it out at www.EdisonWedges.com.

44 Comments

44 Comments

  1. Pingback: The Wedge Guy: Lessons from The Players Championship – GolfWRX

  2. Don Ho

    Sep 16, 2020 at 9:39 pm

    I always say all courses scoring and playability is relative. If one says the course is easy and not a challenge well then that person should be scoring in the 70s or par golf (for amateurs).If one takes this view then all courses are playable no matter what tee box or length. Bottom line you have to have “game”, scrambling, putting, GIRs etc.

  3. Terry Koehler

    Sep 8, 2020 at 12:06 pm

    A healthy male below age 40 should be able to hit the ball 250+ yards. Only about 20% can. Gross

  4. Jeff Williams

    Sep 5, 2020 at 9:34 pm

    Wouldn’t you think someone in golf business would keep it to himself and certainly not write an article about NOT watching golf on TV.

    • Shallowface

      Sep 14, 2020 at 3:01 pm

      Most of the players speak the same way, which is interesting because if we all felt that way (and I do), professional golf would cease to exist in its current form. The players would have to put up and play for their own money. Which might rekindle my interest.

  5. Lanh Le

    Sep 5, 2020 at 10:20 am

    DUMB ARTICLE. PLAY OLYMPIA and tell me its easier LOL.

  6. Evan

    Sep 5, 2020 at 5:14 am

    Interesting article Terry. Given the fairly unimpressive tour average of 60% fairways hit you have to question how penal courses are set up for regular tour stops. Looking at the stats it seems like players are hitting less fairways than years back, which given the big improvements clubs and the ball, is surprisingly. Players have maybe worked out that power trumps accuracy and developed their games accordingly. It would be interesting to see who would prosper from the tour having a policy of tightening up courses and putting more of a premium on accuracy from the tee.

    • Bob.

      Sep 8, 2020 at 6:11 pm

      The people that would benefit are the golfers with upright swings. Ala jack back in the day.

  7. Simms

    Sep 5, 2020 at 2:49 am

    Two choices enjoy the heck out of golf or work your rear off and be as gifted as all PRO athletes are. 99.99% of us are not PRO golf gifted, not even close and if your over 25 your chance of being good enough to be called a PRO are about 1 in ten million (OK better odds then the lottery) that said please you and all your friends on the public courses please play tee box’s that fit your ability and for most men that is the white or middle tees, over 55 move up to the gold on the harder courses so we all can enjoy less then 4 and half hour rounds.

  8. Jeff

    Sep 5, 2020 at 12:52 am

    When talking about conditions, a run of the mill amateur course might be tougher in the sense that the greens aren’t as true, the fairways don’t roll the same and have more divots etc. However, those things aside, length of club into the green on your second shot has nothing to do with course difficulty. It isn’t like the pros are hitting wedges because they play short courses. They are hitting wedges because they have learned that if they get really good at scrambling and putting, a wayward tee shot that goes 330yards is recoverable. A lot of the PGA players can overpower courses because of the fitness, the equipment and the golf balls. Make no mistake, our courses aren’t tougher, they are tough for different reasons. I have a driver swing speed of 115-118mph. Length isn’t my problem. I could play pro courses and be hitting 8i-LW in on many of my second shots on their courses. I’d still get eaten alive any time I missed a fairway or a GIR on their courses where as they save par after most of their bad shots. They aren’t even playing the same game as us regardless of what course they’re on.

  9. TS

    Sep 4, 2020 at 3:25 pm

    Long course, hard fairways, long rough, and especially rock hard greens that don’t hold shots from the rough and traps.

    Bay Hill, Presidents Cup. Same thing.

  10. Jeff

    Sep 4, 2020 at 10:57 am

    Any tour player will confirm, they would rather hit an #8 iron from the rough than a #6 iron from the middle of the fairway!

    • Frank

      Sep 5, 2020 at 6:57 pm

      Ok, according to TrackMan averages, the average 8 iron vs 6 iron for pros is 183 yards vs 160 yards. Now let’s go to Mark Broadie’s strokes gained distance chart for 183 yards from fairway vs 160 yards from rough. How about that, pros average 3.23 strokes from 160 yards in the rough compared to 3.09 strokes from 183 yards in the fairway! Turns out your opinion is wrong.

      • geohogan

        Sep 8, 2020 at 10:25 am

        Im guessing AVERAGE doesnt mean Olympia Fields or US Open “rough”
        but the average course they play on the PGA.

      • Jeremy

        Sep 18, 2020 at 8:20 pm

        His opinion isn’t wrong, nor is it an opinion. It is an unconfirmed statement. He said tour players would rather hit a shot. Not that trackman would rather hit a shot. If you’re gonna come in here all lawyer style, get your ducks in order.

    • Prime21

      Sep 8, 2020 at 12:57 am

      18th hole, Sunday, US Open, given this choice EVERY player would choose the 6 iron from the fairway. This take couldn’t be more wrong.

      • Brian

        Sep 23, 2020 at 4:55 pm

        “I’m hitting it as far as I possibly can up there,” he said after a practice round Tuesday at the U.S. Open. “Even if it’s in the rough, I can still get it to the front edge or the middle of the green with pitching wedges or 9-irons. That’s the beauty of my length and that advantage.”

        “There’s this point of no return where if you’re around 180 and you try and get faster, but it gets that much more drastically off-line, it really doesn’t help you that much. You don’t gain that much. But once you start getting 195 to 200 to 205, even though you’re missing it that far off-line, you’re so far up close to the green, it’s too big of an advantage to take away.” – U.S. Open Champion Bryson DeChambeau

  11. Jeff

    Sep 4, 2020 at 10:50 am

    He started all these companies. Besides Ben Hogan and they went bankrupt. Are any still around? Any PGA pros playing his product?

  12. Terry Koehler

    Sep 4, 2020 at 10:50 am

    Thanks to all of you for these comments. Quite apparently I missed the mark in making my point, as I was certainly not comparing “our” games to the skill and talent the pros exhibit every week. That would be foolish as these guys have power, skill and talent that is borderline mystical. That said, the data published on PGATour.com verifies that they are not fairways-hit and GIR machines. But then, with these short games and putting skills, it is quite apparent they don’t have to be.

    The point I apparently failed to make is that these guys are so long and powerful — and have such magical short games and deadly putting skills — they can reduce most any golf course to a driver/wedge contest to a degree. I was also trying to bring to attention that, for the golfers who made the cut, Olympia Fields was nearly a thousand shots harder, collectively. I found that fascinating . . . I’m just sayin’.

    I was also trying to point out that, in contrast, we recreational golfers routinely hit mid-irons or longer into the green, which is much harder to do, based merely on the physics of golf clubs that have longer shafts and less loft than wedges and short irons. So, yes, in respect to your strength/length profile, you ARE playing a more challenging course than these guys do week in and week out.

    Thanks to those of you who “got it” as to the point I was trying to make, and my apologies to those of you who didn’t.

    • HP

      Sep 4, 2020 at 11:57 am

      Got it and also most trouble is in play for us.

    • Jay

      Sep 14, 2020 at 6:52 pm

      Great observation Terry, spot on. Your point wasn’t lost on me buddy.

  13. golfer

    Sep 4, 2020 at 10:40 am

    LOL 160 shanks.. says it all

  14. geohogan

    Sep 4, 2020 at 8:26 am

    IMO, most are missing the point; that being toughness of the course is relative to your ability.

    When a 10 hdcp plays a course where he or she is hitting mid to long irons to par 4
    it is a tougher test than for a pro who it hitting wedge on most par 4.

    The writer isnt saying ams are better than pros. He isnt even saying courses ams play are tougher than courses pros play. IMO the writer is talking about relative difficulty relative to the golfers abilty. Its nuance thinking beyond the abilty of most, unfortunately.

    • Conner

      Sep 4, 2020 at 11:21 am

      It would be a lot easier to say “golfing is more difficult for someone that sucks compared to a pro”

  15. Eric

    Sep 4, 2020 at 12:01 am

    was this satire? Let me guess, the guy who wrote this article is the first to tell you to tuck your shirt in or turn your music down on the course? Absolutely painful read.

    • Shallowface

      Sep 14, 2020 at 3:06 pm

      How you can play with that music blaring is beyond me. Oh, you’re not out there to play any kind of decent golf. My bad!

      Take the music to the park, save your money and stay out of the way of those of us who are out there to actually play some golf.

      And yeah, stay off my lawn. Did it for you. For the one zillionth time.

  16. Ivan

    Sep 3, 2020 at 11:49 pm

    Another example of the pure failure to have developed sufficient analytical skills to make a reasonable conclusion. Here, it’s innocent enough as it’s just golf and this is just a bad golf article. Elsewhere this problem is more dire.

    We don’t need everyone to be PhDs, but even high schools should turn out better thinkers than this.

    • Bob Pegram

      Sep 26, 2020 at 2:55 am

      A good conclusion from Terry’s analysis is to make the rough severe enough at PGA Tour events that hitting a drive in it is a disincentive. It needs to be more of a penalty than it is on many PGA Tour courses. Making the fairways narrower would help too. Terry’s other conclusion is that we should all practice our short games a lot more. That takes pressure off of shots into the greens. A shot that misses the green doesn’t lead to a bogey when you have sharp short game.
      By the way, Terry makes good clubs. Breaking into the existing golf market with a new golf club company is not easy no matter how good your clubs are.

  17. Bill

    Sep 3, 2020 at 10:08 pm

    So basically tour courses are easier because the guys that play them are better at golf? Horrible take.

  18. Teddy

    Sep 3, 2020 at 9:37 pm

    SO its no good when they tear the course up, but also no good when its too tough and becomes a putting contest?? DO you only watch football games where the teems combine for between 27 and 29 points??

  19. Alex

    Sep 3, 2020 at 9:10 pm

    You are so far off it’s unbelievable. Any tour player would beat the tar out of the best am at any country club. Here’s the long and short of it. Brooks tore the hardest public course apart for 3 of 4 days last year. Tiger routinely brought big boy tracks to their knees. Every week someone you’ve never heard of shoots 60 something where plus 3s and 4s would hope to break 80. Bad lies and perfect lies aside, there’s no comparison. Ever see where a pga missed green ends up? The hardest collection area possible. Not to mention none of us hit 4 iron 240 and can hit 1/10 the shots they can. It’s a different game and those guys are so much more skilled I think I’d have just as good of a chance playing in the NFL as on tour as a scratch player. They are so much better than the average club scratch that it’s chess and checkers. The only advantage they have is pre covid having spectators find errant tee shots. Can’t believe you’d be naive enough to spit in the face of greatness and neglect how much more talented those guys are. 1 word Bellerive…2018 PGA. I looked at my buddy and said this place would chew me up and spit me out. That wasn’t even a US Open.

    • Factsarebiased

      Sep 4, 2020 at 10:56 am

      You are very mistaken if you think any tour player will beat the tar out of the best am at their club. There are some very very very good ams out there in the world with plus handicaps as good or better then a number of tour pros. Am at the club I work at got to a +6.4. He could put a whooping on say a Zach Johnson or a Every.

      • Ian

        Sep 29, 2020 at 9:04 am

        This seems like a wildly inaccurate conclusion. You’re talking about the most elite players in the world and you’re saying your local +6 can compete with a two time major champion??? Your typical tour pro carries a +6 handicap while playing golf courses the don’t even have an accurate course rating for the difficulty in which they are playing it during a tournament week. Then account for the added length the pros play, the firmer/faster greens not to mention tournament pressure. I will happily wager you anything I own that if your AM would not sniff competing in a pga tour event. That’s the reason why the most elite collegiate golfers in the world rarely make cuts when they get into events.

  20. Jared Allen

    Sep 3, 2020 at 6:37 pm

    I cant believe this article became published. This sounds like a high schooler wrote it who realizes he won’t be as good as the pros, so he puts the people ahead of them down.

  21. Brian

    Sep 3, 2020 at 5:40 pm

    Agree 100% with this article. Nothing more boring than watching a tournament where 10-15 players are -20 or better. Huge difference between having pro talent and the ability to just overpower a golf course.

    Watching Driver/Gap Wedge on every hole equals ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzz…

  22. John

    Sep 3, 2020 at 4:44 pm

    Wow. As other comments have pointed out, this is a ridiculously terrible take. No golfer should ever base a course’s difficulty off of how long the approach shots are. That’s just an absurd standard that disregards literally every single factor of what makes a course difficult. I seriously hope you weren’t paid to miss the mark this badly.

  23. Matt

    Sep 3, 2020 at 2:26 pm

    I skimmed thru this thinking it was another swing-and-miss attempt at satire. I went back to confirm it is and…. it’s not.

  24. Roy

    Sep 3, 2020 at 2:21 pm

    About the worst article I have ever read on here and pretty sure the author knows little about golf and less about data abalysis

    “And the 70 players who made the cut totaled 673 under par” – WOW – so the people playing good shot good scores?? But how good?? 673 under par for 70 players equals 9.6 under par per player, over 4 rounds. So just below 2.5 under par per round. Add in the players who didnt make the cut and you will get a per round average of 1.5 under par.

    So the best players in the world – those playing in the playoffs – average right about 1.5 under par over 4 days and his point is the course is too easy?? That its not as hard as what “we” play……

  25. Alex

    Sep 3, 2020 at 1:13 pm

    This is one of the worst takes I have read in a long time.

  26. John

    Sep 3, 2020 at 1:07 pm

    I dont like watching formula 1. The roads dont have pedestrians and stoplights. If they had to drive in my conditions I would for sure be a better driver. The roads by my house have potholes, and I drive them every day. Id like to see the foumula one drivers do that with their sissy cars and lack of clearance. Heaven forbid we optimize a track a course where they could showcase their otherworldly talent…..

  27. Shallowface

    Sep 3, 2020 at 12:24 pm

    It’s certainly true when it comes to pin placements and how difficult short putts are as a result. The USGA advises that holes should be cut in an area “as flat as possible” 3 feet around the cup, but what we see are holes cut right on the edge of ridges on two tiered greens. I often have what I call “McDonald’s Putts” from 3 or 4 feet because the line I have to play resembles an arch. You never see this on television. In fact, when they use a feature that shows the line, I am struck by how straight most 20 footers are on Tour. SV677 is right on the money when it comes to rough and bunkers, and most of the places I play I’m plugging tee shots in drowned fairways even in August. The game would be a lot easier if I got 50 yards of roll as I routinely see on Tour. Throw in “optimized” equipment and one concludes the pros are not only not playing the same game we play, they are playing a MUCH easier game. And it’s one I am not impressed with nor have any interest in watching.

  28. SV677

    Sep 3, 2020 at 11:56 am

    The fact amateurs hit longer clubs into a green goes to the question of playing the right length tees. However, were amateurs do play harder courses is the rough and bunkers. How often have you been in the rough with the ball down and the ground as hard as a cart path? Yes, it’s easy to hit a recovery out of that. Or, as I did today, try hitting bunker shots where again the ground is like a cart path with a thin layer of sand on it. Now I realize not all courses are like the above. However, there are more courses with these conditions than high end country clubs like pros play that are immaculate.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Hong Kong betting preview: Trio of major champs primed for big week

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LIV Golf is set to begin its fourth event of the season at Hong Kong Golf Club in Hong Kong, China. This marks the first time that LIV Golf will travel to China for an event.

Hong Kong Golf Club is a par 70 measuring 6,710 yards. LIV will be using the “Fanling Course” for the event.

While speaking with Asian Tour player Travis Smyth, he gave me a rundown on what it takes to be successful at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“Hong Kong golf club, it’s pretty old school, like super short and tight. And I, I don’t think it falls into like a bomber’s hand. I think you’ll see a lot of guys hitting it to roughly the same spots on the majority of the holes. There’s a few holes where Bryson will be able to unleash a few but not many. When I played here, I hit Hybrid on Par 4’s off the tee maybe like seven times.”

Travis also said that the tight fairways and penal potential misses will keep the bombers at bay.

“It’s just that sort of course you’re hitting it like anywhere from 220 to 240 off the tee. And then from there you have a range of holes where it’s like kind of some sort of wedge or nine. It’s not very long.”

Around the green game will also be tremendously important at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“The greens are small as well and it’s usually quite hard to get up and down if you miss the greens. Someone like Cameron Smith I could see doing really well there. He played well in the international series. but just someone that’s, you know, pretty dolled in with their, their scoring clubs, he’s probably going to do well there.”

Players dialed in with their game from tee to green with control over the golf ball should fare extremely well.

“You can’t really scramble from the trees either. So, you really just have to. I’d, yeah, just whoever’s the best ball striker that week, you can’t really strap it around and fake it around there. You got to hit it straight. The tree lines are dead, there’s some hazards and stuff. It’s a short, tight quirky course, not what any of these guys are probably used to.”

Despite it being short, don’t be surprised if it gives players some real trouble.

“It should be fun viewing because there’ll be a lot of opportunities. They’ll feel like they can go low around there because it’s short but, you know, you make a few bogeys, and you get quite frustrated, and you start pushing off the tee and find some trouble and stuff. It can eat you up as well.”

Smyth finished 2nd at Hong Kong Golf Club to qualify for the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.

Past Winners at Hong Kong Golf Club

  • 2023: Ben Campbell (-19)
  • 2022: Wade Ormsby (-17)
  • 2018: Aaron Rai (-17)
  • 2017: Wade Ormsby (-11)
  • 2016: Sam Brazel (-13)
  • 2015: Justin Rose (-19)
  • 2014: Scott Hend (-13)
  • 2013: Miguel Angel Jiminez (-12)

The top of the board once again will be a major threat this week. Jon Rahm is still in search of his first win on LIV and has been knocking at the door in each of his first three starts. Brooks Koepka hasn’t yet contended but is playing steady golf and has yet to shoot a round outside of the 60’s this season. Joaquin Niemann is the hottest player on the planet and has shown no signs of slowing down.

However, on a golf course that can neutralize the big hitters, this is an event that seems a bit more up for grabs than we’ve seen in the first three LIV events.

LIV Golf Stats YTD

 

2024 LIV Hong Kong Picks

Cameron Smith +2000 (Bet365, BetRivers)

It’s been a slow start for Cam Smith this season. In his three starts on LIV, he’s finished T8, T15, T41 and has yet to look like the Cam that is one of the best players in the world. Hong Kong Golf Club should be the perfect course fit to get the former Open Champion out of his slump.

Hong Kong Golf Club is tight off the tee, and many players won’t be able to hit driver. That will neutralize some of the best drivers of the golf ball in the field and propel players like Cam, who are almost unbeatable from fairway to green. Cam’s driver has been a weakness throughout his career, and it’s been especially pronounced this season. He’s tied for 51st in fairways hit thus far on the season. Taking driver out of his hand this week could be exactly what he needs to get on track.

Despite the poor tee balls, Smith still ranks 1st in putting and 5th in birdies made. He’s also a great scrambler, and with small greens at the course, having to get up and down is inevitable. If he can play from the fairway this week, he should have a major advantage in the other facets of the game.

Louis Oosthuizen +2000 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen should be an absolutely perfect fit for Hong Kong Golf Club. The South African has been remarkably consistent over the past few months dating back to the fall, where he won two consecutive DP World Tour events and also finished 2nd at the International Series Oman. In his three LIV starts this year, Louis has finished T8 at LIV Mayakoba, 50th at LIV Las Vegas and T2 at LIV Jeddah.

Louis is relatively short off the tee and that won’t hurt him this week. He is one of the best putters and scrambler on LIV, and his silky-smooth swing looks as dialed in as ever at the moment. He’s yet to win a LIV event, but a victory for Louis seems imminent.

Patrick Reed +5000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Reed is another play who’s yet to win a LIV event but has been a winner throughout his entire career. The former Masters champion should love Hong Kong Golf Club as it will play to his strengths on and around the greens.

Reed played on the Asian Tour this fall and finished T15 at the Hong Kong Open and T7 at the Indonesian Masters. The experience in Asia this season should be a benefit for Reed acclimating to the travel and conditions this week.

The 34-year-old should benefit from taking driver out of his hand and similar to Smith, can beat anyone in the world if the tournament become a short game competition.

*Featured Image and Stats Image courtesy of LIV Golf*

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