Opinion & Analysis
The Wedge Guy: Maybe you play harder golf courses than the pros
Watching PGA Tour golf has become something I don’t do a lot these days. Why? Well, for two reasons.
First, watching the best players in the world regularly run roughshod over pussycat golf courses just isn’t that entertaining for me. Did you realize that the top five players finished 101 under par at the Northern Trust? And the 70 players who made the cut totaled 673 under par!
Just proves that if you give them wide soft fairways, receptive and smooth greens, and no wind, they can simply tear it up.
The other is when they run into a “US Open-like” golf course like Olympia Fields this past weekend, it seems to become a putting contest as the field struggles mightily to break par.
The puzzling thing to me is just what was it that made Olympia Fields so tough?
From what I read, the fairways are “as narrow as 30 yards” on some holes. So . . . aren’t these guys supposed to be the best shotmakers in the world? From the stats I’ve reviewed, very few of these guys were able to hit even half the fairways. Just to share my perspective on this, my own little country club has fairways much narrower – some as slender as 17 yards, and only 3-4 as wide as 30.
For the best players in the world, 30 yards seems pretty generous.
But then there’s the length thing. For such a “difficult” golf course, they were able to reach both par five holes in two – if they could hit a solid drive in the fairway. And of the other 16 holes, only two of them required approach shots with more than a 7- or 8-iron, and at least 6-7 of those holes routinely gave them approach shots of less than 120 yards. That’s sand wedge range for these guys.
So, with each reachable par-fives, and at least 20-25 other wedge approaches, 4 under wins? Of course, we saw our share of approach shots that covered flags, but we also witnessed a large number of short irons and wedge shots that were uninspiring, in addition to drives that found uncharted zip codes.
It seems to me these guys would be much more precise in their shotmaking. Guess I was spoiled by growing up watching Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller and the like, shooting great scores while routinely hitting long and middle irons into greens.
But here’s the point of today’s post. I think most of you are playing a tougher golf course than these PGA Tour professionals regularly encounter, if you measure a course’s difficulty by the length of your approach shots.
Think back to your most recent rounds and count how many approach shots you hit with a short iron or wedge? Not nearly as many as you saw this past weekend, I’ll bet. If you think about it this way, you’ll realize you are really playing a much tougher course day in and day out than these guys do. So give yourself a break, OK?
Oh, and one other thing that really puzzled me about Olympia Fields–did you notice how many putts kept coming up short? I was shocked by that, as none of the pin placements seemed to be that treacherous that a putt that passed the hole would get away from them.
But in the end, it turned into a putting bomb contest, with Dustin Johnson draining a long one to get into a playoff, and Jon Rahm doing it right back to him on the first playoff hole. Guess if you really like to watch putting, these guys do put on a helluva show.
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We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.
In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.
Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.
Placement Bets:
Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):
I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.
In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.
Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):
Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.
In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).
Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.
Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.
Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.
Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):
The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.
This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.
Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.
Top Nationalities:
Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):
I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.
I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.
This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.
Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):
While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.
He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.
Tournament Head-to-Heads:
Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa
JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).
Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.
Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark
I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.
Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.
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It’s been over nine months since we saw Brian Harman parlay a dominant performance at Royal Liverpool into a claret jug. After another major offseason filled with a feud between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, talks of a merger, and a multitude of questions regarding the future of the game, the golf world is desperate for all of the best players in the world to come together again for a major championship.
We return to Augusta National with excitement at a fever pitch. Scottie Scheffler has separated himself as the best player in the world heading into the Masters. At the moment, the 27-year-old seems to be an unstoppable force. However, questions about Scheffler’s up-and-down putter once again resurfaced as he missed multiple short putts at the Texas Children’s Houston Open including a 5’11” putt to force a playoff with Stephan Jaeger.
Additionally, a handful of the PGA Tour’s top players such as Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Spieth make their way to Augusta National with their current form in question.
Plenty of LIV golfers may be up to the task of conquering Augusta, but with so much time in between the last two majors, it’s not always easy to decipher how their games will stack up against Scheffler and co.
Last year, some important changes were made at Augusta National. The par-5 13th (Azalea) was lengthened by 35 yards and now measures 545 yards. Last year, Azalea played as the toughest of the four par 5s, and players averaged 4.74 for the week, which was down from 4.85 in 2022. However, eagles, birdies and bogeys were all up, so the lengthening achieved less pars, which equals more excitement.
Without further ado, let’s get into the course breakdown and analyze some important statistics for Augusta National.
Augusta National is now a 7,510-yard par-72 with lightning-fast Bentgrass greens. The course’s primary defenses are the contoured greens, swirling crosswinds, the topography of the course, which creates uneven lies and the small landing areas that golfers will need to hit to avoid tight run-off areas around the greens.
Past Winners at the Masters
- 2023: Jon Rahm (-12)
- 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
- 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
- 2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
- 2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
- 2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
- 2017: Sergio Garcia (-9)
- 2016: Danny Willett (-5)
- 2015: Jordan Spieth (-18)
- 2014: Bubba Watson (-8)
- 2013: Adam Scott (-9)
- 2012: Bubba Watson (-10)
- 2011: Charl Schwartzel (-14)
- 2010: Phil Mickelson (-16)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Augusta National
Let’s take a look at the six most important metrics at Augusta National and determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds. This should give us a good starting point for building out a betting card.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach is historically the most important statistic at Augusta National. The sloping, speedy greens and run-off areas create small landing spots that can be difficult to hit.
Last year, Jon Rahm ranked 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Overall, five of the past seven winners at Augusta have ranked in the top 6 in the category. Distance helps, but Augusta National is a second-shot golf course.
Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.30)
- Corey Conners (+0.99)
- Shane Lowry (+0.88)
- Tony Finau (+0.85)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.85)
Course History
More so than any other course on TOUR, familiarity with Augusta National is crucial. Only one player has ever won the Masters on their first try — Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Meanwhile, there are 17 golfers in history who have multiple green jackets.
In most cases, the Masters champion has shown some good form at Augusta in the past. Prior to Scottie Scheffler’s 2022 victory, he finished T19 and T18 in his first two trips to the course. Prior to 2023, Rahm had finished in the top-10 of four of his six starts at The Masters.
Total Strokes Gained: Total at Augusta National in past 36 rounds (per round, minimum eight rounds):
- Will Zalatoris (+2.91)
- Jon Rahm (+2.28)
- Jordan Spieth (+2.22)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.22)
- Dustin Johnson (+2.01)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.00)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1.90)
- Justin Rose (+1.85)
- Rickie Fowler (+1.72)
- Russell Henley (+1.60)
Par 4 Scoring Average
Since plenty of players can reach the par 5s at Augusta in two, par-4 scoring becomes more important. The golfer who separates themselves on the par 4s will be able to gain ground on the field.
Par 4 Scoring Average in past 24 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+3.88)
- Chris Kirk (+3.92)
- Jordan Spieth (+3.93)
- Peter Malnati (+3.93)
- Xander Schauffele (+3.93)
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Golfers with a solid short game tend to fare well at Augusta National. The run-off areas are treacherous, and players will often be scrambling to get up and down.
The majority of players who have won at Augusta National have a great short game and have shown consistent ability to get up and down from tough spots.
Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green in past 24 rounds:
- Hideki Matsuyama (+0.71)
- Scottie Scheffler (+0.66)
- Patrick Reed (+0.61)
- Xander Schauffele (+0.53)
- Lucas Glover (+0.51)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Augusta National is most definitely a second shot golf course. Golfers can get away with a missed fairway here and there, however, it’s important that the misses with driver aren’t too wide of the target or there is serious trouble to be had.
Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:
- Bryson DeChambeau (+1.04)
- Rory McIlroy (+0.85)
- Scottie Scheffler (+0.84)
- Xander Schauffele (+0.71)
- Ludvig Aberg (+0.68)
Strokes Gained Putting: Fast Bentgrass
The USGA calculates that, on average, the greens at Augusta National are the fastest greens in the country. Three-putting is fairly common at Augusta and golfers must be able to combat the speed of the greens with effective lag putting.
Total Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Bentgrass in past 24 rounds:
- Justin Rose (+1.43)
- Sahith Theegala (+0.97)
- Min Woo Lee (+0.88)
- Cameron Smith (+0.70)
- Patrick Reed (+0.70)
Statistical Model
Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the six key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%); Course History (16%); Par 4 Scoring Average (10%); SG: Putting on Fast Bentgrass (16%); SG: OTT (16%). and SG: ARG (16%).
Last year, Jon Rahm ranked first in this model
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Tony Finau
- Justin Thomas
- Shane Lowry
- Will Zalatoris
- Corey Conners
- Si Woo Kim
- Rory McIlroy
- Stephan Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Chris Kirk
- Keegan Bradley
- Wyndham Clark
- Sahith Theegala
- Russell Henley
- Collin Morikawa
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Patrick Reed
My 2023 Pick:
Jon Rahm (+950) (FanDuel)
A few months ago, I never thought that I’d be able to say that Rahm would be going slightly under the radar heading into the 2023 Masters. It’s not that Rahm has done anything wrong, but both Scheffler and McIlroy have undoubtedly surpassed him as the scorching hot, super-elite, top of the market betting favorite category.
Since his win at Riviera, the Spaniard has finished 39th at Bay Hill, withdrew at The Players Championship, and failed to get out of the group stage at the WGC Dell Match Play. On the other hand, Scheffler won The PLAYERS Championship and McIlroy finished third at the WGC Dell Match Play.
Rahm has made six starts at The Masters and has come in the top-10 in four of them. The 28-year-old has incredible power off the tee, a requirement at Augusta which always plays longer than the scorecard indicates. He’s also incredible around the greens and ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Short Game, which is a combination of around the green play and putting, in his past 24 rounds.
As we’ve seen over the years at The Masters, having the ability to chip and putt your way out of difficult situations is a fundamental aspect of getting it done at Augusta National.
While Scheffler has made a strong case to be viewed as the world’s best player, I still believe that title belongs to Rahm. This will be the year Rahmbo joins the ranks of Seve Ballesteros, José María Olazábal, and Sergio Garcia as natives of Spain to don a green jacket.
2024 The Masters Picks
Brooks Koepka +2500 (DraftKings)
In order to win the 2024 Masters, a player will have to go toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler, who’s hitting the ball as anyone in golf over the last two seasons. When building a betting card this week, it’s important for me to choose players that I believe can stare Scheffler down on the weekend at Augusta National. Brooks Koepka fits that bill.
Koepka’s lackluster performance at LIV Miami is concerning, but he’s the type of player who can turn it on quickly during the week of a major championship. Although I’d have preferred, he played well last week, I’ll take the odds discount we got as a result of his most recent results.
Prior to LIV Miami, Koepka appeared to be in solid form. He finished in the top twelve in four of five starts on LIV this season. When it comes to the five-time major champion, it’s well known that he has another gear for major championships. Everything he’s done both in the off-season and during the LIV season is to gear up for the year’s first major at Augusta National.
In his past five starts at Augusta National, the 33-year-old has three top-7 finishes, including two runners-up. The two years when he played poorly (2019 and 2020) were when he was nowhere near 100% healthy. All signs point to Brooks being in a great place physically as we enter major season.
Last year, Koepka was the 36 and 54-hole leader prior to letting the green jacket slip away to Jon Rahm. He used the result as a springboard to win his 5th major at Oak Hill at the PGA Championship.
Brooks enters the week looking to get one step closer to achieving the career grand slam and golf fans would be foolish to rule him out.
Joaquin Niemann +2800 (BetRivers)
Full disclosure, I bet Niemann the second he was invited to The Masters back in February at +8000. Although the odds have shortened dramatically since then, I can’t pretend that the Chilean isn’t one of the players who has a real chance to win the 2024 Masters.
While I was speaking with Niemann back in March, he told me how much he loves Augusta National.
“Yeah, it’s a place that I love. I’ve been playing good golf. Especially last year, I wasn’t playing my best golf, and I had a good week there and made triple on 11 that kind of killed me a little bit.
I feel like I’m getting more ready and more prepared every time. My game is getting better too. I know that I’m playing good enough to be in that situation that I can have a chance to win the Masters and it’s all about how I react to that situation.
So yeah, I’m going to prepare myself to be ready for that situation if it happens and I can fight for the title on the Sunday which would be awesome.”
As Niemann alluded to, the Chilean was able to have his best career finishes at The Masters (T16) despite not being in the best form. This year, Niemann comes into the week playing better golf than anyone in the world with the exception of Scottie Scheffler. The 25-year-old has won three times since December and has shown the world why he was regarded as one of the games future stars since he was a teenager.
Historically speaking, Joaco’s win at Riviera a few years back seems to be an indicator of potential success at Augusta National. Fourteen players have won at both historic courses including Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Nick Faldo, Tom Watson and Ben Hogan.
Niemann has all the shots to be successful at Augusta National. His low stingers will come in handy on plenty of holes down the stretch and he can work it both ways, playing the high draw or the low fade. He also putts best on Bentgrass greens and likes them fast. Whether PGA Tour or LIV, talent will always reign supreme, and I’ll always bet on that talent.
Cameron Smith (+4000) (FanDuel)
Cameron Smith is another player who we should get an odds discount on based off of the results at LIV Miami. Smith was forced to withdraw prior to the second round due to food poisoning. In my opinion, the number has drifted to a place where I’d consider it a “bet the number” play on the talent.
Smith is a contender for the green jacket anytime he tees it up at Augusta National. The Australian absolutely loves the golf course and has four top-10 finishes in his last six trips to the golf course. In both 2020 and 2022, Smith had a real chance of winning The Masters and came up just short, finishing T2 and T3 in those two tries. In his past 36 rounds, he ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total per round at Augusta.
In order to be successful at Augusta National, players must be creative around the greens and be shot makers who have plenty of ways to get around the golf course. Cam has all the shots required to be successful at the course at his touch around the greens will continue to serve him well in his hopes for a green jacket.
Smith is arguably the best putter in the world and has the capability to win a golf tournament on and around the greens. He’s already taken down Rory McIlroy at the home of golf on his way to a claret jug and is one of the few players who can stare down any of the world’s top golfers on the back nine at Augusta National.
Justin Thomas +4000 (FanDuel)
With how he’s been playing since his 2022 PGA Championship win, you may be shocked to see the name “Justin Thomas” in this preview. However, JT has drifted to a place on the odds board where I believe it’s worth taking a shot on the talent of a two-time major champion in his prime.
It’s not all bad for Thomas this season. He finished T6 at the signature Pebble Beach event, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T12 at the signature Arnold Palmer Invitational. In his last 24 rounds, JT ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 14th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 29th in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bentgrass greens.
Despite missing the cut last season, Thomas has played pretty well at Augusta National. He ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds at the course. He finished T4 in 2020, T21 in 2021 and T8 in 2022.
I believe the 2024 edition of The Masters is completely wide open. The past few years has been frustrating for Thomas fans, but I believe his peak form may be a bit closer than people realize.
Sergio Garcia +12000 (FanDuel)
Earlier this season, Garcia dueled with Joaquin Niemann before finally losing on the fourth playoff hole late into the night. Despite the loss, the 44-year-old seemed to gain confidence in his game. The results that followed weren’t spectacular, but in terms of his ball striking he’s shown some flashes of vintage Sergio.
At LIV Miami last week, Garcia played well on a massive golf course, losing in a playoff to Dean Burmester. He continued pumped the ball into the fairway and hit massive iron shot after massive iron shot. He also used a refurbished Scotty Cameron that he used in the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah. The putter served him incredibly well until he missed a short putt on the 18th hole to win the event. Overall, he gained 7.1 strokes putting at Doral.
Sergio Garcia is once again headed to Augusta National with a chip on his shoulder. Of course, having a chip on the shoulder is nothing new for the fiery Spaniard, but this year, the 2017 Masters Champion will arrive at Augusta with his game clicking on all cylinders.
Sergio winning a second green jacket is seemingly an almost impossible feat, but magical things tend to happen on the hallowed grounds of Augusta National.
Adam Scott +11000 (FanDuel)
Betting Adam Scott over the past handful of years has been a Masters staple for me, and like many traditions, has been a hard one for me to let go of.
Last week, Scott finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open in a windy and difficult week. I believe the wind will be a major factor this week at Augusta National, and the more difficult the tournament plays, the more I favor Scott. Scott also ranks 5th in his past 24 rounds on Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Bentgrass and has the short game these days that could help him contend in a major.
Since his win in 2013, Scott’s history at The Masters has been spotty. He has some poor finishes alongside a T9 in 2017 and a T18 in 2019. He’s been playing some solid golf this season, finishing T8 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T19 at the Genesis Invitational.
(All photos in piece belong to LIV Golf)
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Since 2013, I have created a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that have strongly predictive outcomes to success at Augusta. The list of players that can win at Augusta is usually filtered down to 20-24 players and in that time I have correctly shortlisted every Masters champion.
This includes last year’s winner, Jon Rahm. Even though Rahm essentially walked away with the green jack and did not make it very close, there were some close calls on top of the leaderboard as I had filtered out Phil Mickelson (t-2nd) and Patrick Reed (t-4th) as the LIV Tour is still behind on providing advanced analytics for their tour. Russell Henley was also filtered out and finished t-4th, five strokes from Rahm’s winning score of 276.
If you’re watching at home, the “critical holes” that will likely determine the top finishers will be holes No. 7, 8, 11 and 13. The 11th hole is projected to be the most critical of holes as over the past five Masters the top players have gained nearly a 1.5 strokes for the tournament on that hole alone.
Just like last year’s column I will get the LIV Tour players I’ve filtered out of the way. Since LIV Tour does not provide ShotLink or Trackman data, it’s more of a guessing game as to how certain LIV Tour golfers are playing. I did utilize recent performance as well as performance at Mayakoba and Doral as they were two former PGA Tour courses that have some semblance of crossover to playing Augusta.
Phil Mickelson
Thorbjorn Olesen
Charl Schwartzel
Cameron Smith
Bubba Watson
Admittedly Cameron Smith and Phil Mickelson are hard to leave out, but both have not played well as of late.
Next, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won three times by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller was the last to win in 1979. Prior to Zoeller though, it was Horton Smith in the inaugural event in 1934 followed by Gene Sarazen in 1935
Ludvig Aberg
Akshay Bhatia
Wyndham Clark
Eric Cole
Santiago de la Fuente (a)
Nick Dunlap
Austin Eckroat
Stewart Hagestad (a)
Ryo Hisatsune
Lee Hodges
Nicolai Hojgaard
Stephan Jaeger
Jake Knapp
Christo Lamprecht (a)
Peter Malnati
Denny McCarthy
Grayson Murray
Matthieu Pavon
Adam Schenk
Neal Shipley (a)
Jasper Stubbs (a)
Out of the first time invitees the data likes Ludvig Aberg and Eric Cole to play the best at Augusta National.
I also filter out old Masters champions that I do not believe can get into contention anymore.
Fred Couples
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir
Tiger Woods
Recency has a strong predictive value for player performance and missing the cut in the event in the prior week greatly reduces the likelihood of winning the following week compared to players that miss the cut, take a week off, and then play the following week. Therefore I filter out all players that missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open last week.
Byeong Hun An
Harris English
Rickie Fowler
Ryan Fox
Zach Johnson
Tom Kim
Erik van Rooyen
Camilo Villegas
I will also filter out the players that have never made the cut at the Masters:
Kurt Kitayama
Adrian Meronk
A Tradition Unlike Any Other…
Augusta National has traditionally favored longer hitters and even moreso in the past 20 years of the event. Of course there has been exceptions as in 2007 the short hitting Zach Johnson ended up winning the event.
Critics of my filtering system point out Johnson’s victory as a case for short hitters being able to win at Augusta, but they neglect the fact that Johnson’s victory came in historically low temperatures in the 40’s with wind gusts reaching 35 mph. That made the par-5’s almost unreachable in two shots and the course stressed wedge play and short game around the green where Zach had a sizable advantage.
It is projected to rain early on Thursday and then the weather is supposed to be sunny and warm for the rest of the week. It depends on how quickly the course dries up, but if it does dry out fairly quickly that will give the longer hitters the advantage as they will be able to reach certain par-5’s in two shots that the shorter hitters cannot reach if they don’t hit a quality tee shot and there may be par-5’s that some of the long hitters can reach in two shots with a short iron. Therefore I will filter out the following players due to a lack of distance off the tee:
Corey Conners
Lucas Glover
Emiliano Grillo
Brian Harman
Si Woo Kim
Chris Kirk
Shane Lowry
Colin Morikawa
JT Poston
Justin Rose
Sepp Straka
Out of these players the data likes Lowry and Morikawa the most. Both have good history at Augusta and they both just narrowly missed the distance benchmark set in the filter and both are excellent long iron players.
Last year I created a new formula to better determine ball height as Augusta has historically not taken too kindly to a low ball flight. Out of the 5 players filtered out for low ball flight using the new formula the best finish was only t-29th by Si Woo Kim. This year I’ve filtered out the following players.
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sungjae Im
Luke List
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas
Every year I filter out the poor performers on approach shots from 175-225 yards as Augusta National puts a lot of stress on those shots. Last year I filtered out nine players and three of them missed the cut with only Jordan Spieth finishing in the top-15 (t-4th) as the rest of the players were never a threat.
Here are the golfers I’m filtering out due to poor play from 175-225 yards:
Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Davis
Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Russell Henley
Max Homa
Rory McIlroy
Jordan Spieth
Nick Taylor
Rory had a nice outing at the Valero Texas Open and hit his irons better there, but appears to be struggling with a leftward miss. Other than that, Rory still has the game to win his first green jacket. Henley is usually one of the better iron players on Tour, but he has struggled this season from 175-225 yards and is a short hitter anyway.
I will also filter out Danny Willett as he is coming off injury and making his comeback at the Masters.
That leaves the 22 players that can win the Masters:
Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (25/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Sergio Garcia (100/1)
Adam Hadwin (175/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (80/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Brooks Koepka (16/1)
Min Woo Lee (70/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Taylor Moore (300/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Patrick Reed (80/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)
Adam Scott (100/1)
Sahith Theegala (50/1)
Gary Woodland (250/1)
Cameron Young (50/1)
Will Zalatoris (35/1)
Here’s my personal top-10 picks:
Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (35/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)
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Don Ho
Sep 16, 2020 at 9:39 pm
I always say all courses scoring and playability is relative. If one says the course is easy and not a challenge well then that person should be scoring in the 70s or par golf (for amateurs).If one takes this view then all courses are playable no matter what tee box or length. Bottom line you have to have “game”, scrambling, putting, GIRs etc.
Terry Koehler
Sep 8, 2020 at 12:06 pm
A healthy male below age 40 should be able to hit the ball 250+ yards. Only about 20% can. Gross
Roger
Sep 9, 2020 at 2:56 pm
100% agree. I’d even say up to 50+.
Jeff Williams
Sep 5, 2020 at 9:34 pm
Wouldn’t you think someone in golf business would keep it to himself and certainly not write an article about NOT watching golf on TV.
Shallowface
Sep 14, 2020 at 3:01 pm
Most of the players speak the same way, which is interesting because if we all felt that way (and I do), professional golf would cease to exist in its current form. The players would have to put up and play for their own money. Which might rekindle my interest.
Lanh Le
Sep 5, 2020 at 10:20 am
DUMB ARTICLE. PLAY OLYMPIA and tell me its easier LOL.
Evan
Sep 5, 2020 at 5:14 am
Interesting article Terry. Given the fairly unimpressive tour average of 60% fairways hit you have to question how penal courses are set up for regular tour stops. Looking at the stats it seems like players are hitting less fairways than years back, which given the big improvements clubs and the ball, is surprisingly. Players have maybe worked out that power trumps accuracy and developed their games accordingly. It would be interesting to see who would prosper from the tour having a policy of tightening up courses and putting more of a premium on accuracy from the tee.
Bob.
Sep 8, 2020 at 6:11 pm
The people that would benefit are the golfers with upright swings. Ala jack back in the day.
Simms
Sep 5, 2020 at 2:49 am
Two choices enjoy the heck out of golf or work your rear off and be as gifted as all PRO athletes are. 99.99% of us are not PRO golf gifted, not even close and if your over 25 your chance of being good enough to be called a PRO are about 1 in ten million (OK better odds then the lottery) that said please you and all your friends on the public courses please play tee box’s that fit your ability and for most men that is the white or middle tees, over 55 move up to the gold on the harder courses so we all can enjoy less then 4 and half hour rounds.
Jeff
Sep 5, 2020 at 12:52 am
When talking about conditions, a run of the mill amateur course might be tougher in the sense that the greens aren’t as true, the fairways don’t roll the same and have more divots etc. However, those things aside, length of club into the green on your second shot has nothing to do with course difficulty. It isn’t like the pros are hitting wedges because they play short courses. They are hitting wedges because they have learned that if they get really good at scrambling and putting, a wayward tee shot that goes 330yards is recoverable. A lot of the PGA players can overpower courses because of the fitness, the equipment and the golf balls. Make no mistake, our courses aren’t tougher, they are tough for different reasons. I have a driver swing speed of 115-118mph. Length isn’t my problem. I could play pro courses and be hitting 8i-LW in on many of my second shots on their courses. I’d still get eaten alive any time I missed a fairway or a GIR on their courses where as they save par after most of their bad shots. They aren’t even playing the same game as us regardless of what course they’re on.
TS
Sep 4, 2020 at 3:25 pm
Long course, hard fairways, long rough, and especially rock hard greens that don’t hold shots from the rough and traps.
Bay Hill, Presidents Cup. Same thing.
Jeff
Sep 4, 2020 at 10:57 am
Any tour player will confirm, they would rather hit an #8 iron from the rough than a #6 iron from the middle of the fairway!
Frank
Sep 5, 2020 at 6:57 pm
Ok, according to TrackMan averages, the average 8 iron vs 6 iron for pros is 183 yards vs 160 yards. Now let’s go to Mark Broadie’s strokes gained distance chart for 183 yards from fairway vs 160 yards from rough. How about that, pros average 3.23 strokes from 160 yards in the rough compared to 3.09 strokes from 183 yards in the fairway! Turns out your opinion is wrong.
geohogan
Sep 8, 2020 at 10:25 am
Im guessing AVERAGE doesnt mean Olympia Fields or US Open “rough”
but the average course they play on the PGA.
Jeremy
Sep 18, 2020 at 8:20 pm
His opinion isn’t wrong, nor is it an opinion. It is an unconfirmed statement. He said tour players would rather hit a shot. Not that trackman would rather hit a shot. If you’re gonna come in here all lawyer style, get your ducks in order.
Prime21
Sep 8, 2020 at 12:57 am
18th hole, Sunday, US Open, given this choice EVERY player would choose the 6 iron from the fairway. This take couldn’t be more wrong.
Brian
Sep 23, 2020 at 4:55 pm
“I’m hitting it as far as I possibly can up there,” he said after a practice round Tuesday at the U.S. Open. “Even if it’s in the rough, I can still get it to the front edge or the middle of the green with pitching wedges or 9-irons. That’s the beauty of my length and that advantage.”
“There’s this point of no return where if you’re around 180 and you try and get faster, but it gets that much more drastically off-line, it really doesn’t help you that much. You don’t gain that much. But once you start getting 195 to 200 to 205, even though you’re missing it that far off-line, you’re so far up close to the green, it’s too big of an advantage to take away.” – U.S. Open Champion Bryson DeChambeau
Jeff
Sep 4, 2020 at 10:50 am
He started all these companies. Besides Ben Hogan and they went bankrupt. Are any still around? Any PGA pros playing his product?
Terry Koehler
Sep 4, 2020 at 10:50 am
Thanks to all of you for these comments. Quite apparently I missed the mark in making my point, as I was certainly not comparing “our” games to the skill and talent the pros exhibit every week. That would be foolish as these guys have power, skill and talent that is borderline mystical. That said, the data published on PGATour.com verifies that they are not fairways-hit and GIR machines. But then, with these short games and putting skills, it is quite apparent they don’t have to be.
The point I apparently failed to make is that these guys are so long and powerful — and have such magical short games and deadly putting skills — they can reduce most any golf course to a driver/wedge contest to a degree. I was also trying to bring to attention that, for the golfers who made the cut, Olympia Fields was nearly a thousand shots harder, collectively. I found that fascinating . . . I’m just sayin’.
I was also trying to point out that, in contrast, we recreational golfers routinely hit mid-irons or longer into the green, which is much harder to do, based merely on the physics of golf clubs that have longer shafts and less loft than wedges and short irons. So, yes, in respect to your strength/length profile, you ARE playing a more challenging course than these guys do week in and week out.
Thanks to those of you who “got it” as to the point I was trying to make, and my apologies to those of you who didn’t.
HP
Sep 4, 2020 at 11:57 am
Got it and also most trouble is in play for us.
Jay
Sep 14, 2020 at 6:52 pm
Great observation Terry, spot on. Your point wasn’t lost on me buddy.
golfer
Sep 4, 2020 at 10:40 am
LOL 160 shanks.. says it all
geohogan
Sep 4, 2020 at 8:26 am
IMO, most are missing the point; that being toughness of the course is relative to your ability.
When a 10 hdcp plays a course where he or she is hitting mid to long irons to par 4
it is a tougher test than for a pro who it hitting wedge on most par 4.
The writer isnt saying ams are better than pros. He isnt even saying courses ams play are tougher than courses pros play. IMO the writer is talking about relative difficulty relative to the golfers abilty. Its nuance thinking beyond the abilty of most, unfortunately.
Conner
Sep 4, 2020 at 11:21 am
It would be a lot easier to say “golfing is more difficult for someone that sucks compared to a pro”
Eric
Sep 4, 2020 at 12:01 am
was this satire? Let me guess, the guy who wrote this article is the first to tell you to tuck your shirt in or turn your music down on the course? Absolutely painful read.
Shallowface
Sep 14, 2020 at 3:06 pm
How you can play with that music blaring is beyond me. Oh, you’re not out there to play any kind of decent golf. My bad!
Take the music to the park, save your money and stay out of the way of those of us who are out there to actually play some golf.
And yeah, stay off my lawn. Did it for you. For the one zillionth time.
Ivan
Sep 3, 2020 at 11:49 pm
Another example of the pure failure to have developed sufficient analytical skills to make a reasonable conclusion. Here, it’s innocent enough as it’s just golf and this is just a bad golf article. Elsewhere this problem is more dire.
We don’t need everyone to be PhDs, but even high schools should turn out better thinkers than this.
Bob Pegram
Sep 26, 2020 at 2:55 am
A good conclusion from Terry’s analysis is to make the rough severe enough at PGA Tour events that hitting a drive in it is a disincentive. It needs to be more of a penalty than it is on many PGA Tour courses. Making the fairways narrower would help too. Terry’s other conclusion is that we should all practice our short games a lot more. That takes pressure off of shots into the greens. A shot that misses the green doesn’t lead to a bogey when you have sharp short game.
By the way, Terry makes good clubs. Breaking into the existing golf market with a new golf club company is not easy no matter how good your clubs are.
Bill
Sep 3, 2020 at 10:08 pm
So basically tour courses are easier because the guys that play them are better at golf? Horrible take.
Teddy
Sep 3, 2020 at 9:37 pm
SO its no good when they tear the course up, but also no good when its too tough and becomes a putting contest?? DO you only watch football games where the teems combine for between 27 and 29 points??
Alex
Sep 3, 2020 at 9:10 pm
You are so far off it’s unbelievable. Any tour player would beat the tar out of the best am at any country club. Here’s the long and short of it. Brooks tore the hardest public course apart for 3 of 4 days last year. Tiger routinely brought big boy tracks to their knees. Every week someone you’ve never heard of shoots 60 something where plus 3s and 4s would hope to break 80. Bad lies and perfect lies aside, there’s no comparison. Ever see where a pga missed green ends up? The hardest collection area possible. Not to mention none of us hit 4 iron 240 and can hit 1/10 the shots they can. It’s a different game and those guys are so much more skilled I think I’d have just as good of a chance playing in the NFL as on tour as a scratch player. They are so much better than the average club scratch that it’s chess and checkers. The only advantage they have is pre covid having spectators find errant tee shots. Can’t believe you’d be naive enough to spit in the face of greatness and neglect how much more talented those guys are. 1 word Bellerive…2018 PGA. I looked at my buddy and said this place would chew me up and spit me out. That wasn’t even a US Open.
Factsarebiased
Sep 4, 2020 at 10:56 am
You are very mistaken if you think any tour player will beat the tar out of the best am at their club. There are some very very very good ams out there in the world with plus handicaps as good or better then a number of tour pros. Am at the club I work at got to a +6.4. He could put a whooping on say a Zach Johnson or a Every.
Ian
Sep 29, 2020 at 9:04 am
This seems like a wildly inaccurate conclusion. You’re talking about the most elite players in the world and you’re saying your local +6 can compete with a two time major champion??? Your typical tour pro carries a +6 handicap while playing golf courses the don’t even have an accurate course rating for the difficulty in which they are playing it during a tournament week. Then account for the added length the pros play, the firmer/faster greens not to mention tournament pressure. I will happily wager you anything I own that if your AM would not sniff competing in a pga tour event. That’s the reason why the most elite collegiate golfers in the world rarely make cuts when they get into events.
Jared Allen
Sep 3, 2020 at 6:37 pm
I cant believe this article became published. This sounds like a high schooler wrote it who realizes he won’t be as good as the pros, so he puts the people ahead of them down.
Brian
Sep 3, 2020 at 5:40 pm
Agree 100% with this article. Nothing more boring than watching a tournament where 10-15 players are -20 or better. Huge difference between having pro talent and the ability to just overpower a golf course.
Watching Driver/Gap Wedge on every hole equals ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzz…
John
Sep 3, 2020 at 4:44 pm
Wow. As other comments have pointed out, this is a ridiculously terrible take. No golfer should ever base a course’s difficulty off of how long the approach shots are. That’s just an absurd standard that disregards literally every single factor of what makes a course difficult. I seriously hope you weren’t paid to miss the mark this badly.
Matt
Sep 3, 2020 at 2:26 pm
I skimmed thru this thinking it was another swing-and-miss attempt at satire. I went back to confirm it is and…. it’s not.
Mpw
Sep 4, 2020 at 1:30 pm
You sir, should lay off the crack pipe
Roy
Sep 3, 2020 at 2:21 pm
About the worst article I have ever read on here and pretty sure the author knows little about golf and less about data abalysis
“And the 70 players who made the cut totaled 673 under par” – WOW – so the people playing good shot good scores?? But how good?? 673 under par for 70 players equals 9.6 under par per player, over 4 rounds. So just below 2.5 under par per round. Add in the players who didnt make the cut and you will get a per round average of 1.5 under par.
So the best players in the world – those playing in the playoffs – average right about 1.5 under par over 4 days and his point is the course is too easy?? That its not as hard as what “we” play……
Alex
Sep 3, 2020 at 1:13 pm
This is one of the worst takes I have read in a long time.
John
Sep 3, 2020 at 1:07 pm
I dont like watching formula 1. The roads dont have pedestrians and stoplights. If they had to drive in my conditions I would for sure be a better driver. The roads by my house have potholes, and I drive them every day. Id like to see the foumula one drivers do that with their sissy cars and lack of clearance. Heaven forbid we optimize a track a course where they could showcase their otherworldly talent…..
Shallowface
Sep 3, 2020 at 12:24 pm
It’s certainly true when it comes to pin placements and how difficult short putts are as a result. The USGA advises that holes should be cut in an area “as flat as possible” 3 feet around the cup, but what we see are holes cut right on the edge of ridges on two tiered greens. I often have what I call “McDonald’s Putts” from 3 or 4 feet because the line I have to play resembles an arch. You never see this on television. In fact, when they use a feature that shows the line, I am struck by how straight most 20 footers are on Tour. SV677 is right on the money when it comes to rough and bunkers, and most of the places I play I’m plugging tee shots in drowned fairways even in August. The game would be a lot easier if I got 50 yards of roll as I routinely see on Tour. Throw in “optimized” equipment and one concludes the pros are not only not playing the same game we play, they are playing a MUCH easier game. And it’s one I am not impressed with nor have any interest in watching.
SV677
Sep 3, 2020 at 11:56 am
The fact amateurs hit longer clubs into a green goes to the question of playing the right length tees. However, were amateurs do play harder courses is the rough and bunkers. How often have you been in the rough with the ball down and the ground as hard as a cart path? Yes, it’s easy to hit a recovery out of that. Or, as I did today, try hitting bunker shots where again the ground is like a cart path with a thin layer of sand on it. Now I realize not all courses are like the above. However, there are more courses with these conditions than high end country clubs like pros play that are immaculate.