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The differences between good and bad club fitters—and they’re not what you think

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Club fitting is still a highly debated topic, with many golfers continuing to believe they’re just not good enough to be fit. That couldn’t be further from the truth, but it’s a topic for another day.

Once you have decided to invest in your game and equipment, however, the next step is figuring out where to get fit, and working with a fitter.  You see, unlike professionals in other industries, club fitting “certification” is still a little like the wild west. While there are certification courses and lesson modules from OEMs on how to fit their specific equipment, from company to company, there is still some slight variance in philosophy.

Then there are agnostic fitting facilities that work with a curated equipment matrix from a number of manufacturers. Some have multiple locations all over the country and others might only have a few smaller centralized locations in a particular city. In some cases, you might even be able to find single-person operations.

So how do you separate the good from the bad? This is the million-dollar question for golfers looking to get fit. Unless you have experience going through a fitting before or have a base knowledge about fitting, it can feel like an intimidating process. This guide is built to help you ask the right questions and pay attention to the right things to make sure you are getting the most out of your fitting.

The signs of a great fitter

  • Launch monitor experience: Having some type of launch monitor certification isn’t a requirement but being able to properly understand the interpret parameters is! A good fitter should be able to explain the parameters they are using to help get the right clubs and understand how to tweak specs to help you get optimized. The exact labeling may vary depending on the type of launch monitor but they all mostly provide the same information….Here is an example of what a fitter should be looking for in an iron fitting: “The most important parameter in an iron fitting” 
  • Communication skills: Being able to explain why and how changes are being made is a telltale sign your fitter is knowledgeable—it should feel like you are learning something along the way. Remember, communication is a two-way street so also being a good listener is another sign your working with a good fitter.
  • Transparency: This involves things like talking about price, budgets, any brand preferences from the start. This prevents getting handed something out of your price range and wasting swings during your fit.
  • A focus on better: Whether it be hitting it further and straighter with your driver or hitting more greens, the fitting should be goal-orientated. This means looking at all kinds of variables to make sure what you are getting is actually better than your current clubs. Having a driver you hit 10 yards farther isn’t helpful if you don’t know where it’s going….A great fitter that knows their stuff should quickly be able to narrow down potential options to 4-5 and then work towards optimizing from there.
  • Honesty and respect: These are so obvious, I shouldn’t even have to put it on the list. I want to see these traits from anybody in a sales position when working with customers that are looking to them for knowledge and information…If you as the golfer is only seeing marginal gains from a new product or an upgrade option, you should be told that and given the proper information to make an informed decision. The great fitters, and I’ve worked with a lot of them, will be quick to tell a golfer, “I don’t think we’re going to beat (X) club today, maybe we should look at another part of your bag where you struggle.” This kind of interaction builds trust and in the end results in happy golfers and respected fitters.

The signs of a bad fitter

  • Pushing an agenda: This can come in all kinds of shapes and sizes. Whether it be a particular affinity towards certain brands of clubs or even shafts. If you talk to players that have all been to the same fitter and their swings and skill levels vary yet the clubs or brands of shafts they end up with (from a brand agnostic facility) seem to be eerily similar it might be time to ask questions.
  • Poor communications: As you are going through the fitting process and warming up you should feel like you’re being interviewed as a way to collect data and help solve problems in your game. This process helps create a baseline of information for your fitter. If you are not experiencing that, or your fitter isn’t explaining or answering your questions directly, then there is a serious communication problem, or it could show lack of knowledge depth when it comes to their ability.
  • Lack of transparency: If you feel like you’re not getting answers to straightforward questions or a fitter tells you “not to worry about it” then that is a big no-no from me.
    Side note: It is my opinion that golfers should pay for fittings, and in a way consider it a knowledge-gathering session. Of course, the end goal for the golfer is to find newer better fitting clubs, and for the fitter to sell you them (let’s be real here), but you should never feel the information is not being shared openly.
  • Pressure sales tactics: It exists in every industry, I get it, but if you pay for your fitting you are paying for information, use it to your advantage. You shouldn’t feel pressured to buy, and it’s always OK to seek out a knowledgeable second opinion (knowledgeable being a very key word in that sentence!).  If you are getting the hard sell or any combination of the traits above, there is a good chance you’re not working with the right fitter for you.

Final thoughts

Great fitters with great reputations and proper knowledge have long lists, even waiting lists, of golfers waiting to see them. The biggest sign of a great fitter is a long list of repeat customers.

Golf is a game that can be played for an entire lifetime, and just like with teachers and swing coaches, the good ones are in it for the long haul to help you play better and build a rapport—not just sell you the latest and greatest (although we all like new toys—myself included) because they can make a few bucks.

Trust your gut, and ask questions!

 

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Ryan Barath is a club-fitter & master club builder with more than 17 years of experience working with golfers of all skill levels, including PGA Tour players. He is the former Build Shop Manager & Social Media Coordinator for Modern Golf. He now works independently from his home shop and is a member of advisory panels to a select number of golf equipment manufacturers. You can find Ryan on Twitter and Instagram where he's always willing to chat golf, and share his passion for club building, course architecture and wedge grinding.

29 Comments

29 Comments

  1. emncaity

    Feb 9, 2021 at 2:15 am

    “orientated”

    [giggle]

    But here’s a question, and I don’t understand why it’s not asked more often: Why don’t people simply get educated about what length and lie should be for their own measurements, what kind of spin rates you’re looking for on various clubs, and what tends to produce those optimal rates (and dispersions too)? It’s not exactly rocket science. A few hours will do wonders. Why don’t people simply do that, follow a reliable fitting chart for loft and lie (and adjust from there), just buy some time on Trackman or other analyzer, and do the numbers for themselves?

  2. phizzy

    Sep 25, 2020 at 6:29 pm

    I have been fit numerous times over the years starting in 2008. First fitter I went to didn’t give me the opportunity to hear my input and kept pushing certain club heads and shafts. He did play on the PGA for less than a full season as he claimed(did my research),so I thought he was credible. Boy was I wrong. He fit me into a super tri with fubuki alpha 60x and it would balloon on me with too much spin. Less than a year later I found another fitter and have been giving my business to him ever since. He was always asking for my input and never pushed products. He would give me the info from his trackman and would recommend what would best suit me. Recently, I did a driver fitting with him and walked away with a SIM Max with Ventus Black 7x tipped one inch at 45 inches. Hitting 320 total yard bombs with minimal dispersion and am very happy. A good club fitter is essential to maximizing your time out on the course.

  3. SteveT

    Sep 2, 2020 at 10:59 am

    Any iron fitting I’ve experienced, either for myself or a friend, always involves using the demo 6/7 iron from any set, and this involves those often on the overrated “Top 100 Fitters List” With all this talk about proper fitting, I doubt the typical customer ever reaps the benefits of things like set gapping. I do believe a real fitting is only experienced by those privileged enough to visit an OEM performance center or similar facility.

  4. Speedy

    Aug 30, 2020 at 4:47 pm

    “The biggest sign of a great fitter is a long list of repeat customers.”

    I don’t think so.

  5. BG

    Aug 19, 2020 at 2:12 pm

    Everyone and their dog is a fitter these days; finding a good one is indeed a challenge. What’s even more frustrating is when the custom clubs you order do not come back to the specifications for which you were fit. Frustrating when you are expecting D4, and everything comes back D2.5. I’ve struggled with OEM’s, and custom builders alike. It’s a big ball of mess out there if you ask me.

  6. Joe Beau

    Aug 18, 2020 at 10:04 am

    Ok. How about providing us with a list of some qualified fitters? I haven’t heard of 1 within 100 miles of me.

  7. Alistair Harper

    Aug 17, 2020 at 3:11 pm

    I’ve been fortunate to have as a best friend, one of the top fitters in the industry, Larry Bobka who has fit my clubs for decades and it makes a WORLD of difference. Over the years Larry has put people like Tiger, Phil, Adam and hundreds more pros into the best set-ups for their game. Cannot overestimate the value of a quality club fitting by a great fitter.

  8. Peter

    Aug 14, 2020 at 11:30 pm

    Upgrading after 20 years, I had my heart set on some WS irons. Got measured and hit some balls. It turned out that I wasn’t up to standard for the ‘player irons’ I was hoping for. I was given 6 iclubs from different manufacturers to hit with the instruction of not looking at the names on the iron. Found my preference and walked away with a set of i200s. After 3 years, still enjoy hitting them everyday

  9. Jack Wullkotte

    Aug 14, 2020 at 3:13 pm

    How come you did’t print my response to your article about club fitters?

  10. joro

    Aug 14, 2020 at 12:46 pm

    Being a teacher and fitter myself I think about 10% of the “Fitters” are really Qualified to do a proper and good fitting. Most are guys that are given the job because they are apprentices or just a good player. As a former club maker for a Major manufacturer
    and making clubs for Tour Players what they need in way of shafts, grips, lie angle, and balance, which is something that most Club Fitters overlook, the small but important stuff.

    I have known my own specs for years but even so when I went to a Major Club manufaturer for a fitting as a staff member the guy who fit me who was supposed to be one of their best fitters said to me forget the past, you are over 60 so you need to go to SR. flex and lighter. I was playing stiff and heavier at the time and very well at the time. So he fit me and sent me off with 2 sets of “Expertly fitted” clubs. They were awful!!!! So I rebuilt them to my specs and they were great. That was one of the top fitters at the fitting range. Soooo, take it as you may, and never have a fitting indoors, you have see the full flight of the ball to determine what you really need.

  11. Leftshot

    Aug 14, 2020 at 11:13 am

    A few things missing. How comprehensive is the fitting? Are you fit for length,lie angle, swing weigh, other shaft and head characteristics, or just offered two shafts one with an R stamped on it and one with an S. The fitting should be done with YOUR ball of choice.

  12. Kevin Coombs, PGA

    Aug 14, 2020 at 12:08 am

    Properly fitted golf clubs reward and encourage the proper motion and give correct feedback for incorrect motion.

  13. DW

    Aug 13, 2020 at 6:40 pm

    Can’t help but notice that the covering picture is indeed the fitting studio of the one and only TXG at Toronto…

  14. Randy

    Aug 13, 2020 at 11:19 am

    FIRST TAKE SOME LESSONS!
    It don’t mean a thing if you don’t have a swing.

  15. JJ

    Aug 13, 2020 at 10:09 am

    Good fitter fits you for club length…bad fitter doesn’t. How many friends I have that got “fitted” but they never got fit for club length…especially in a driver fitting. I’ll just take my money and get lessons.

  16. JThunder

    Aug 13, 2020 at 1:02 am

    “Experience, communication skills, transparency, a focus on better, honesty and respect”
    “pushing an agenda, poor communication, lack of transparency, pressure sales tactics”

    Not just a list of good/bad for golf clubfitters, is it?

    Finding a good club fitter is similar to finding a good teaching pro. Some are objectively better than others; also important is finding the “right one for you”.

    You may have to try a couple before you find a good fit – if you’re serious about getting fit, think of it like a test drive or a serious medical condition; you likely won’t stop at one opinion. And once you find that fitter, stick with them. Just like a good doctor, understanding your patient can be as important as understanding the medicine.

    You can tinker on your own – but a really good clubfitter will gain more knowledge in a week that you will in a year, and it will be a costly year. You can also use WebMD to diagnose your own medical conditions.

  17. Karsten's Ghost

    Aug 12, 2020 at 5:47 pm

    For most people, your indoor swing is not your outdoor swing. Your turf interaction is not your plastic turf interaction.

    Hitting mats hide lie angle issues, promote loft, and bad balls promote spin. Cheap balls are not true flight…

    If a fitter starts with bad data, they will fit you to that bad data. It doesn’t mean they’re not trying, but unless they can accurately account for variances (v unlikely), you’ll get fitting data to be a fantastic driving range king.

    The worst part is you’ll go back to the range, everything will seem fine, and you’ll continue to guess at what you’re doing wrong on-course.

    • Doug

      Aug 14, 2020 at 10:33 am

      “Your indoor swing is not your outdoor swing?” Pure nonsense.

      I would submit that ideally an outdoor fitting is preferable to an indoor fitting only because of visual ball flight confirmation against computer generated flight info. But an indoor fitting is completely acceptable.

  18. juststeve

    Aug 12, 2020 at 3:53 pm

    I’m wondering if there is an objective standard by which to judge a fitter or the correctness of the particular fit recommended?

  19. TacklingDummy

    Aug 12, 2020 at 3:01 pm

    There is a couple of metrics that I don’t think get fit well by many fitters is shaft torque and clubhead shape for drivers. A good club fitter will fit torque well based on the swing, strength/weakness, the launch numbers, etc. Well fitted torque to a swing can improve accuracy a lot without much sacrifice in distance.

    Also, clubhead shape can have a substantial effect ball flight, controlling the face, and accuracy because of the different weighting. I think really good fitters know to fit a driver head shape and weighting that will fit a players swing. If a player has more/less face rotation in the swing and swing plane. Much like weighting of putters and the stroke (more face rotation-more toe hang, less face rotation-more face balanced putter).

    Many golf fitters of course want to sell product. I get that. However, the not so good ones I have been to really try to keep you focusing on the the best shot you hit, rather than the best groupings. Most manufacturers do the same because they push distance more than accuracy. Personally, I want the driver that give me a tighter dispersion without too much loss in distance, not the driver I hit 15 yards longer on 1/10 and had 3/10 off the map.

    While many good players can adapt to a driver, it is best to get one fit well to adapt the driver to the swing.

  20. A. Commoner

    Aug 12, 2020 at 2:25 pm

    Please!! Proof reader needed.

  21. SV

    Aug 12, 2020 at 1:55 pm

    Based on my experience a couple of years ago, there were a number of things missing. This was with a national fitting company. It seemed like a science experiment, try this, try that with no explanation. He kept emphasizing 1 or 2 mile per hour ball speed and better smash factor. The recommended driver didn’t carry as far and total distance was the same as my 6 year old driver. This was with a $200 upgrade shaft. Needless to say, I didn’t buy a new $800 driver.
    Fitting may be recommended, but based on my experience, I can go to a big box store and experiment on my own. My preference would be to try at an outdoor range, either golf course or driving range, where you can actually see what is happening. Hopefully they would have a launch monitor, but I don’t think it is necessary.

    • Stephen Hodge

      Aug 12, 2020 at 2:45 pm

      Seeing ball flight at a driving range means nothing. You’re hitting a driving range golf ball that has probably seen thousands of hits in its lifetime. You’re also hitting outside with variables, like wind and temperature. You are subconsciously making adjustments to your swing to see the ball flight you like. The ball flight you see on the range with range balls is never the flight you see on the course with premium golf balls. Your experience with the fitting you had should not cancel out the other fitters around you or in other areas.

      • tom

        Aug 12, 2020 at 3:05 pm

        Gotta be outside.. wh said anything about range balls? A GODD fitter will use pro v1s or a comparable ball. Mats are forgiving. Turf interaction is one the most important things when getting fit for irons.

        • JJ

          Aug 13, 2020 at 10:11 am

          Goes to range and gets fitted…swings out of shoes about 40 times and gets fitted for the club that makes the fitter the most money.

        • DW

          Aug 13, 2020 at 6:37 pm

          Unfortunately the combo of outdoor and premium ball fitter is not that common. One can argue that indoor fitting while using one’s own ball may be a good “compromise”

  22. Michele

    Aug 12, 2020 at 1:54 pm

    Where in Westchester ny or lower ct is a good club fitter

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Hong Kong betting preview: Trio of major champs primed for big week

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LIV Golf is set to begin its fourth event of the season at Hong Kong Golf Club in Hong Kong, China. This marks the first time that LIV Golf will travel to China for an event.

Hong Kong Golf Club is a par 70 measuring 6,710 yards. LIV will be using the “Fanling Course” for the event.

While speaking with Asian Tour player Travis Smyth, he gave me a rundown on what it takes to be successful at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“Hong Kong golf club, it’s pretty old school, like super short and tight. And I, I don’t think it falls into like a bomber’s hand. I think you’ll see a lot of guys hitting it to roughly the same spots on the majority of the holes. There’s a few holes where Bryson will be able to unleash a few but not many. When I played here, I hit Hybrid on Par 4’s off the tee maybe like seven times.”

Travis also said that the tight fairways and penal potential misses will keep the bombers at bay.

“It’s just that sort of course you’re hitting it like anywhere from 220 to 240 off the tee. And then from there you have a range of holes where it’s like kind of some sort of wedge or nine. It’s not very long.”

Around the green game will also be tremendously important at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“The greens are small as well and it’s usually quite hard to get up and down if you miss the greens. Someone like Cameron Smith I could see doing really well there. He played well in the international series. but just someone that’s, you know, pretty dolled in with their, their scoring clubs, he’s probably going to do well there.”

Players dialed in with their game from tee to green with control over the golf ball should fare extremely well.

“You can’t really scramble from the trees either. So, you really just have to. I’d, yeah, just whoever’s the best ball striker that week, you can’t really strap it around and fake it around there. You got to hit it straight. The tree lines are dead, there’s some hazards and stuff. It’s a short, tight quirky course, not what any of these guys are probably used to.”

Despite it being short, don’t be surprised if it gives players some real trouble.

“It should be fun viewing because there’ll be a lot of opportunities. They’ll feel like they can go low around there because it’s short but, you know, you make a few bogeys, and you get quite frustrated, and you start pushing off the tee and find some trouble and stuff. It can eat you up as well.”

Smyth finished 2nd at Hong Kong Golf Club to qualify for the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.

Past Winners at Hong Kong Golf Club

  • 2023: Ben Campbell (-19)
  • 2022: Wade Ormsby (-17)
  • 2018: Aaron Rai (-17)
  • 2017: Wade Ormsby (-11)
  • 2016: Sam Brazel (-13)
  • 2015: Justin Rose (-19)
  • 2014: Scott Hend (-13)
  • 2013: Miguel Angel Jiminez (-12)

The top of the board once again will be a major threat this week. Jon Rahm is still in search of his first win on LIV and has been knocking at the door in each of his first three starts. Brooks Koepka hasn’t yet contended but is playing steady golf and has yet to shoot a round outside of the 60’s this season. Joaquin Niemann is the hottest player on the planet and has shown no signs of slowing down.

However, on a golf course that can neutralize the big hitters, this is an event that seems a bit more up for grabs than we’ve seen in the first three LIV events.

LIV Golf Stats YTD

 

2024 LIV Hong Kong Picks

Cameron Smith +2000 (Bet365, BetRivers)

It’s been a slow start for Cam Smith this season. In his three starts on LIV, he’s finished T8, T15, T41 and has yet to look like the Cam that is one of the best players in the world. Hong Kong Golf Club should be the perfect course fit to get the former Open Champion out of his slump.

Hong Kong Golf Club is tight off the tee, and many players won’t be able to hit driver. That will neutralize some of the best drivers of the golf ball in the field and propel players like Cam, who are almost unbeatable from fairway to green. Cam’s driver has been a weakness throughout his career, and it’s been especially pronounced this season. He’s tied for 51st in fairways hit thus far on the season. Taking driver out of his hand this week could be exactly what he needs to get on track.

Despite the poor tee balls, Smith still ranks 1st in putting and 5th in birdies made. He’s also a great scrambler, and with small greens at the course, having to get up and down is inevitable. If he can play from the fairway this week, he should have a major advantage in the other facets of the game.

Louis Oosthuizen +2000 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen should be an absolutely perfect fit for Hong Kong Golf Club. The South African has been remarkably consistent over the past few months dating back to the fall, where he won two consecutive DP World Tour events and also finished 2nd at the International Series Oman. In his three LIV starts this year, Louis has finished T8 at LIV Mayakoba, 50th at LIV Las Vegas and T2 at LIV Jeddah.

Louis is relatively short off the tee and that won’t hurt him this week. He is one of the best putters and scrambler on LIV, and his silky-smooth swing looks as dialed in as ever at the moment. He’s yet to win a LIV event, but a victory for Louis seems imminent.

Patrick Reed +5000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Reed is another play who’s yet to win a LIV event but has been a winner throughout his entire career. The former Masters champion should love Hong Kong Golf Club as it will play to his strengths on and around the greens.

Reed played on the Asian Tour this fall and finished T15 at the Hong Kong Open and T7 at the Indonesian Masters. The experience in Asia this season should be a benefit for Reed acclimating to the travel and conditions this week.

The 34-year-old should benefit from taking driver out of his hand and similar to Smith, can beat anyone in the world if the tournament become a short game competition.

*Featured Image and Stats Image courtesy of LIV Golf*

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