Opinion & Analysis
Like It Or Not, Ultra-Premium Golf Equipment Is Here To Stay
Back in 2015, Bob Parsons burst onto the golf scene with PXG. Its ultra-premium pricing, eccentric CEO, and bombastic brand image have remained a lightning rod for attention in the golf industry for the last two years. Some people love it. Some people hate it. Nearly everyone has an opinion on the matter, and they will argue it until their face turns blue. There’s one thing it’s time for us all to agree on, though, regardless of which side of that fence you happen to be. Parsons started something. It has officially stuck. And it’s not going anywhere.
About a month ago, I wrote an article surmising that the vast majority of golf clubs are incredibly well priced. I also stated that some equipment manufacturers are looking to reach new heights in that regard, and ultimately, consumers will vote with their wallets as to the validity of those prices. After letting that idea marinate for a little bit, I think the aforementioned validity is already bubbling up to the surface. Consumers are buying it.
The obvious place to start is with TaylorMade, which launched its P-790 irons about a month ago. While their retail price is less than half of a comparable set of PXG irons, their construction (a hollow head filled with “Speed Foam” and tungsten to increase MOI) was strikingly similar to PXG’s 0311 (a hollow head filled with TPE and tungsten screws to provide perimeter weighting). The constructions are similar enough, in fact, that Parsons has elected to drag them to court over the matter. Time will tell on that one.
The company that’s probably most excited about that lawsuit is Callaway, which has been leaning pretty heavily on the accelerator pedal in its own right. In January, the company released the GBB Epic and GBB Epic Sub Zero drivers at a price of $499.999 each. Later came its Epic and Epic Pro irons at roughly $2,000 a set, and just recently, Callaway released an ultra-lightweight line of Epic Star clubs. Those will hit the streets at $699.99 for a driver and $2,400 for an eight-piece set of irons. Callaway isn’t filling its irons with SpeedFoam or TPE, but it is reaching for the same ultra-premium price points.
Even if you step outside of the “big boys,” you’ll notice that as long as a company is providing an exceeding level of technology, quality, customer service, fitting, etc., consumers are more than willing to open up their wallets. Examples include some names that have been around a long time in the “boutique putter” game such as Tyson Lamb, Byron Morgan, and MannKrafted, but can also be stretched into newer craftsmen such as Raybon Putters and Selfmade Flatsticks. I spoke with the owner of Bluegrass Fairway, a company that sells hand-made leather scorecard holders and yardage book covers, who recently told me he was “blown away” by how busy his business is.
If you read the forums and comments sections on GolfWRX and all the other sites across the golf world, you’ll find a lot of belly aching over the price of gear nowadays and also over the gear geeks that buy them. What’s starting to crystallize at this point is that regardless of your personal opinion, this level of gear has officially gained traction in the marketplace. In return, the consumer is getting a very high quality product with unprecedented attention to detail and technological advancement. Who knows how long PXG will be around, but its contribution to the game has already left an impression.
- LIKE100
- LEGIT29
- WOW3
- LOL5
- IDHT1
- FLOP5
- OB6
- SHANK151
19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead
The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.
The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time.
Past Winners at Valspar Championship
- 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
- 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
- 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
- 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
- 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
- 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
- 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
- 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Copperhead
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)
- Tony Finau (+.90)
- Nick Taylor (+.81)
- Justin Thomas (+.77)
- Greyson Sigg (+.69)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)
2. Good Drive %
The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.
Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.
Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (+91.3%)
- Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
- Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
- Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
- Aaron Rai (+89.7%)
3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.
SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
- Tony Finau (+1.24)
- Cameron Young (+1.17)
- Doug Ghim (+.95)
4. Bogey Avoidance
With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.
Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.
Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (+9.0)
- Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
- Austin Cook (+9.7)
- Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
- Greyson Sigg (+10.2)
5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions
Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.
Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds
- Xander Schauffele (+1,71)
- Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
- Cameron Young (+1.27)
- Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
- Justin Suh (+.94)
6. Course History
That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.
Course History Over Past 24 rounds
- Patrick Cantlay (+3.75)
- Sam Burns (+2.49)
- Davis Riley (+2.33)
- Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
- Jordan Spieth (+2.04)
The Valspar Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).
- Xander Schauffele
- Doug Ghim
- Victor Perez
- Greyson Sigg
- Ryan Moore
- Tony Finau
- Justin Thomas
- Sam Ryder
- Sam Burns
- Lucas Glover
2024 Valspar Championship Picks
Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)
Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.
Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.
Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.
In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.
Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.
Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)
Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.
In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.
Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.
Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)
Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.
It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.
It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.
Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)
Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.
Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.
In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.
Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.
- LIKE4
- LEGIT1
- WOW0
- LOL0
- IDHT0
- FLOP1
- OB1
- SHANK2
Opinion & Analysis
Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina
As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.
My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.
2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.
My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.
Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation
What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.
If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.
You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.
If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.
Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.
Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?
The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.
My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.
The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.
Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North
Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)
A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.
Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)
A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.
King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)
- LIKE2
- LEGIT0
- WOW0
- LOL0
- IDHT0
- FLOP1
- OB0
- SHANK1
19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test
The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.
TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.
With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.
THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.
THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.
Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass
- 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
- 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
- 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
- 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
- 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
- 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
- 2016: Jason Day (-15)
- 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass
Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.37)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
- Tony Finau (+0.99)
- Jake Knapp (+0.83)
- Shane Lowry (+0.80)
2. Total Driving
This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.
Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.
Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds
- Rory McIlroy (22)
- Akshay Bhatia (25)
- Keith Mitchell (25)
- Adam Hadwin (34)
- Sam Burns (+39)
3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes. Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.
SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
- Min Woo Lee (+1.77)
- Sungjae Im (+1.72)
- Brian Harman (+1.62)
4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.
SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
- Tony Finau (+1.51)
- Tom Hoge (+1.48)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.18)
5. Par 5 Average
Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.
Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
- Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
- Doug Ghim (+4.34)
- Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)
6. Strokes Gained: Florida
We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well.
Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:
- Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
- Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
- Doug Ghim (+1.78)
- Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)
7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger
With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past.
Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:
- Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
- Tony Finau (+1.62)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.49)
THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).
- Scottie Scheffler
- Shane Lowry
- Tony Finau
- Corey Conners
- Keith Mitchell
- Justin Thomas
- Will Zalatoris
- Xander Schauffele
- Cameron Young
- Doug Ghim
- Sam Burns
- Chris Kirk
- Collin Morikawa
- Si Woo Kim
- Wyndham Clark
2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks
(All odds at the time of writing)
Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):
Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.
Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.
Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.
Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):
In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.
Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.
Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.
Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):
History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022.
Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.
Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.
Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):
(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).
Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.
In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.
It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.
Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):
A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.
This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.
Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.
Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):
It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.
Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.
This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.
Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):
Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.
In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.
Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.
In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.
- LIKE30
- LEGIT10
- WOW4
- LOL2
- IDHT0
- FLOP3
- OB1
- SHANK6
-
19th Hole3 weeks ago
Tour pro calls Anthony Kim a ‘f*****g idiot’ following Instagram comeback post
-
19th Hole3 weeks ago
This Rory McIlroy post-round ‘The Match’ moment is going viral…but all is likely not what it seems
-
Whats in the Bag3 weeks ago
Anthony Kim WITB 2024 (February)
-
Whats in the Bag2 weeks ago
Scottie Scheffler WITB 2024 (March)
-
19th Hole3 weeks ago
Anthony Kim’s speculated LIV Golf sign-on fee may surprise you
-
Tour Photo Galleries2 weeks ago
Photos from the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational
-
19th Hole2 weeks ago
The total sum that Sergio Garcia needs to pay in fines if he wants to return to DP World Tour revealed
-
19th Hole2 weeks ago
Joaquin Niemann names 3 PGA Tour events he’d love to play each year ‘in a perfect world’
Sean
Sep 29, 2017 at 9:49 pm
I have no problem with premium clubs, and I don’t understand people who do. It’s not like golfers are being forced to purchase them. If people want to lay out the cash for these types of clubs, that is their business. It has no affect on either my wallet, or my game.
Steve C
Sep 29, 2017 at 5:28 pm
Full disclosure… I am currently a 6 HDCP and have been as low as a 3. So, I am neither a good or bad golfer. I recently went on a vacation to see some friends. Not expecting to play golf, I did not bring my clubs on this trip. I ended up using my buddy’s wife “Golden Bear” set that was likely 10 years old. I shot an 80, which is probably what I would have shot with my own clubs. MY POINT IS THAT I DOUBT SO CALLED PREMIUM CLUBS WILL TRANSLATE TO BETTER SCORES.
Peter Schmitt
Sep 29, 2017 at 3:11 pm
Thanks for the reactions and comments as always, guys and gals. As one can plainly see, it’s a polarizing subject, which makes it worth pondering and writing about.
To be continued… 🙂
Mike
Sep 29, 2017 at 4:21 am
Have you forgotten we used to pay $1500 big ones for a”J’s Professional Weapon” driver not so many years ago
AD
Sep 29, 2017 at 3:02 am
Ooooh I want my $3000 set of irons, please
Da Judge
Sep 28, 2017 at 10:25 pm
Ultra-premium priced golf equipment is so so pathetic. It’s only for show and status. Toys for golfturds!
Andrew
Sep 28, 2017 at 7:11 pm
Thanks, shoeshine boy. Now I know the market for “ultra-premium” is topped. Good luck, suckers.
Doobie
Sep 28, 2017 at 7:22 pm
Next big golf club market is the “Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious” golffing gearhead geeks who don’t play golf… they just want to fill their WITB so they can join golf forums and share their feeelings with other like minded morons.
AD
Sep 29, 2017 at 3:01 am
You really aged yourself there, girlfriend, with that quote from what was it – Mary Poppins, is it? Lemme look it up on Wiki…..
Methislife
Sep 28, 2017 at 6:10 pm
if you can afford a ferrari, go ahead… But your the douche that drives a Ferrari. If you can afford PXG, go ahead.. it’s your money… But your the douche that plays PXG
Fredo
Sep 28, 2017 at 9:47 pm
I guess that makes you the douch that can’t afford top end anything
Da Judge
Sep 28, 2017 at 10:21 pm
And what are you? A bottom end golfer with top end ultra-premium clubs?
You know what that makes you look like? (Clownish).
L
Sep 28, 2017 at 1:28 pm
Parsons didn’t start anything really. Brands like Honma pioneered the ultra expensive sometimes funky looking equipment niche way before PXG came along.
Doobie
Sep 28, 2017 at 7:17 pm
Honma pioneered the ultra expensive clubs because in Asia you are what you own…. even if you can’t hit the golf ball a snot.
BB
Sep 27, 2017 at 10:35 pm
GM. Ford and Chrysler owe their survival to pickup truck sales at exhorbitant prices for a cheap to build product. The markup on pickup trucks is huge whereas profits are meager for the econo-sedans because the Asian car builders have the low end market sewn up.
Similarly the big golf OEMs are not selling enough lower priced clubs to a dwindling market and must seek profits from the upscale market where price is irrelevant.
So stop slobbering over the premium golf equipment because that’s not for you to judge. People who buy these golfing pickup truck at premium prices are mostly golffing clowns anyway.
bbdumdum
Sep 28, 2017 at 3:01 pm
You sound jealous. Maybe you can get a used set in a few years.
Da Judge
Sep 28, 2017 at 10:23 pm
Me jealous? Naaah! I just love to twist you WITB nerds and geeks into pretzels.
DaJudgeisJealous
Sep 29, 2017 at 8:44 am
Just what we all thought. Jealous. Thanks for confirming.
JThunder
Sep 28, 2017 at 4:23 pm
The fact that golf sales are down since the dizzying heights since the high point “bubble” of Tiger Woods era hardly makes them “dwindling”… if people would stop drinking the Kool-Aid, then the global economy and corporate culture might actually work.
Tom54
Sep 27, 2017 at 7:29 pm
The golfing public is pretty smart when it comes to equipment. Those that love the game and all it’s new products will continue to purchase the latest stuff. Those that don’t have fat wallets will wait a while (not that long anymore) till this years hot item is a fraction of what it was when it was current. That’s the way to go.
Gorden
Sep 27, 2017 at 4:15 pm
We all know part of the fun of golf is having new or equipment we really want to play (even if may not be right for our level of play) So having premium equipment is important for ones who can afford that choice. I would worry more about the division in course quality we are facing now…the premium market (Country Clubs etc) are even facing this problem…Just in my area 4 public courses have closed in the last 3 years, 2 more have announced closing in 2018 add to that 2 Private Country clubs in the same area have gone Public this year….must remind those buying premium equipment hitting off bare dirt fairways and putting through weeds on greens may not be worth the price.
Jim
Sep 27, 2017 at 3:11 pm
Actually nothing new about appealing to the upscale, luxury (big ego) market. Ever hear of Hiro Honma (who hasn’t)?. Some of their gold-plated stuff goes for well over $10,000 per set of irons.
Many of their older, lower cost items (PP-717, 727, etc.) are quite wonderful, very playable blades, challenging any muscle back or blade in today’s market.
Doobie
Sep 28, 2017 at 7:24 pm
In Asia, you are what you own…. even if your slicing drive is only 150 meters…!!
AM
Sep 27, 2017 at 2:27 pm
Of course they will be here to stay, and new and improved premium clubs will be available annually.
The new model clubs will sell because they are aimed at the ultra-rich up-scale market where price doesn’t matter.
The rest of us peons will play with our 5-7 y.o. clubs and save money for another super-duper driver down the road. The golf market for cheaper clubs is vanishing along with the drop in participation.
Matt
Sep 27, 2017 at 2:09 pm
Don’t see a problem with more options. I’m one of few in my group with new gear, though definitely wasn’t in the market for PXG prices. Most of the guys I play with are old school – quality second hand clubs and new balls only for tournaments.
SV
Sep 27, 2017 at 1:02 pm
Just keep churning out the equipment at whatever prices the OEMs want. If it’s available left-handed and I like it, I’ll buy it later on Ebay or Global Golf for a lot less and enjoy it just as much.
06aces
Sep 27, 2017 at 12:30 pm
Might be the up and coming market….time will tell…
a already elite sport played by the rich….becoming harder and harder for the young families to play together…
Not sure how this grows the game….
Look at all the golf course closures in Myrtle Beach the last 10 years….
The true bench mark for golf course is not how many $600 drivers it sells….it is all about…”rounds of golf played per year”……a number that has been declining recently
Sam
Sep 27, 2017 at 12:12 pm
Why would people not like this? It’s just more choices and something for everyone.
Fredo
Sep 28, 2017 at 9:51 pm
Wow, a level headed comment, congrats!
cgasucks
Sep 27, 2017 at 12:01 pm
Let’s face it…most guys want to play the same clubs the pros play on TV and most pros choose performance over luxury. The luxury golf club market will be there, but it will be nowhere as big as the regular mainstream performance club market.
Joey5Picks
Sep 28, 2017 at 3:33 pm
So how do you explain Nike have virtually no success in the club market, despite Tiger Woods playing their equipment for 2 decades?
JThunder
Sep 28, 2017 at 4:25 pm
The stuff that sells well in stores has very little to do with what the pros play. Ping G-series irons far outsell Titleist MBs, yet tour use is the very opposite.
Golfgirlrobin
Sep 27, 2017 at 11:40 am
As with virtually all products, the tech in these ultra premium clubs will filter down to the more reasonably priced sets at some point, and every golfer will benefit.
Every sport has equipment options that the average participant can’t afford but they don’t seem to take those offerings as a personal affront the way golfers do.
Darrin
Sep 27, 2017 at 10:55 am
I have several friends who own these sort of clubs. They are the kind of people who have a lot of disposable income, they might wear Rolex watches, drive new BMW’s, live in nice houses located at private clubs etc. What exactly is the problem? Some people like premium products, if you can’t afford them or justify buying them then don’t buy them. Personally I can’t justify it, I have good clubs, I am happy with them, but I don’t look down on people for buying them if they can afford it.
So I guess I don’t get the “like it or not” title to the thread. Should we protest premium products just because we can’t afford them? It’s a really weird mentality. I also think it’s cool to see people playing discounted classic clubs, because they like them and because they are affordable.
To each his own.
Ray
Sep 27, 2017 at 12:11 pm
Agree with comments here. This is the same unfortunate mentality that prevails every aspect of daily life. Its called jealousy.
Example: I know for a fact where i play locally that a good portion of the higher handicap golfers tend to disparage and isolate the accomplished members. The same mentaility applies to those buying $5,000 bag of clubs. Sad but true….
Ripken08
Sep 27, 2017 at 10:54 am
Yes expensive equipment is here to stay, but not “ultra premium”. Think you got it all wrong as the performance isn’t there to warrant the price. This is just going to drive prices up and shy away people that mat want to take up the game.
Ray
Sep 27, 2017 at 10:54 am
Im happy shooting low 70’s consistently with my Ping I3 blades, thanks anyway though 🙂
o.b.
Sep 27, 2017 at 5:05 pm
5300 yards
moses
Sep 27, 2017 at 10:36 am
A lot of people thought Callaway was crazy charging $499 for the Great Big Bertha Driver back in the 90s. How did that work out?
BB
Sep 27, 2017 at 10:43 pm
Yeah…. and then they yanked out the stock graphite shaft and put in an exotic shaft because the stock shaft was floppy, soggy crap intended for sub-80mph swings.
So the suckers had a $499 GBB driver head and a $150 fancy graphite shaft for a $650 driver….. and nothing changed until the OEMs decided to offer a choice of shafts when they realized what was happening.
Stupid is as stupid does…. and nothing much has changed.
Dat
Sep 27, 2017 at 9:53 am
Next up, golf equipment loans and credit lines.
TC
Sep 27, 2017 at 1:17 pm
Taylormade already started it:
“Here’s how it works: After credit approval, a consumer can purchase drivers and irons such as the company’s current M1 driver and M2 irons on TaylorMade’s e-commerce site through a monthly payment plan on an 18- or 30-month billing cycle. The resulting interest would lead to the $500 M1 driver typically costing about an extra $100.”
Dat
Sep 27, 2017 at 6:22 pm
Next up, golf equipment credit defaults and government bailouts.