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The strengths and weaknesses of Bryson DeChambeau’s game

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Bryson DeChambeau made waves last season in the golf world after he won the NCAA individual championship and the U.S. Amateur. Between his swing mechanics, unique golf clubs and knowledge of physics, he’s became one of the most interesting players on Tour. He turned professional after the Masters, and here is how he as performed on the PGA Tour so far this year.

  • Arnold Palmer Invitational: T27
  • The Masters: T21
  • RBC Heritage: T4
  • Valero Texas Open: MC
  • Wells Fargo Championship: MC
  • AT&T Byron Nelson: MC
  • Dean & Deluca Invitational: MC
  • The Memorial: T38
  • U.S. Open: T15

This has raised some eyebrows from readers who have asked for a more in-depth look at DeChambeau’s game, as he was in contention at the Masters at one point, played very well at Harbour Town before missing four cuts in a row, and started to regain his form back in the U.S. Open.

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While DeChambeau missed four cuts in a row and has only recorded one top-10 finish, his scoring metrics have been sound thus far. Furthermore, he has done well on the Par-4’s which has the strongest correlation to Total Adjusted Scoring Average.

Driving Data

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The rankings are based out of 202 golfers. So, DeChambeau ranking 100th means he’s at about the average in terms of effectiveness off the tee. He certainly generates a good amount of club speed, but he also appears to hit his driver with a bit of a downward attack angle in competition, which saps some of his power away.

I was a bit surprised by his Tee Shot Aggressiveness, which estimates how often a player is laying up off the tee. He was ultra-aggressive off the tee at Harbour Town and had great success there. But since, it appears he’s become very conservative off the tee and that may be giving him issues. He also has a fairly pronounced rightward miss bias.

Approach Shot Data

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The approach shot data gives us a better idea as to why DeChambeau has had some struggles. The interesting part is he’s one of the best on Tour from the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards), but the worst on Tour from the Red Zone (175-225 yards). This will typically translate to a lot of birdies, but also a lot of bogeys. When players get into the Yellow Zone, those that hit the ball closer to the hole on average are set up to make more birdies because they are hitting those approach shots into a makeable range. From the Red Zone, the players who hit it more closely save themselves from making bogeys and double bogeys.

What I find more interesting is that Augusta National and Oakmont are very Red Zone-centric courses, and he performed well there. His best finish was at Harbour Town, which is more of a Yellow Zone-centric course. My interpretation is that there is little reason to press the panic button. While the Red Zone is the most important range
for approach shots, DeChambeau’s poor performance is likely due to the learning curve of transitioning from collegiate and amateur golf to the PGA Tour. He’s excellent from 150-175 yards, and I believe that in short time he will greatly improve his Red Zone play.

Short Game and Putting Data

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Putting has also been an issue for DeChambeau. He has putted well from 15-25 feet, but putts from 5-15 feet have a stronger correlation to Adjusted Scoring Average. Much like approach shot play, these are the growing pains for a young professional. His Short Game data indicates he’s fairly competent around the greens and that his putting is likely holding him back from saving more pars.

In the end, DeChambeau has shown flashes of becoming the next top young professional on Tour. There has been a noticeable learning curve, but his Yellow Zone play and putting from 15-25 feet will lead to a ton of birdies on the Par-4’s. The performance at Oakmont is promising, since it is a course that stresses shots from 175-250 yards. One more thing to note; he has played the 4th toughest schedule on Tour at this point in time. The general idea is that once he starts playing in events with weaker fields, he should be able to have even stronger finishes.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

46 Comments

46 Comments

  1. Snoopy

    Jul 11, 2016 at 12:28 am

    Rich, (or anyone), I’ve always wondered this about Bryson… if his swing gets off, will he play around his miss or is he 100% committed to his swing chart and his swing plane? As in, if he misses one right, will he make the same swing and aim left, or will he try to correct?

  2. MAC

    Jun 26, 2016 at 3:11 pm

    IF I DIDNT KNOW BETTER I WOULD THINK YOU ARE ON THE SPECTRUM. LAST GUY I KNEW LIKE THAT WAS MOE BUY YOU COULDN’T HOLD HIS JOCK.

  3. Millennial

    Jun 26, 2016 at 6:38 am

    About as funny as a syphilis.

  4. Large chris

    Jun 25, 2016 at 3:29 pm

    Very interesting analysis as always…. The surprising thing is (and I do think he has a lot of game) is that his red zone play is so poor (ranked last), when you consider from previous articles that:

    A) 175 to 225 is the most significant indicator of success
    B) single length clubs are mainly supposed to improve the long iron game, yet this is his weakest point.

  5. Happy Troll

    Jun 25, 2016 at 12:01 am

    Yet you are down here reading and commenting. Seriously go read ESPN. Golf WRX is fine and my favorite website because of ease of commenting.

  6. Lee Layfield

    Jun 24, 2016 at 11:23 pm

    I love to watch him play. He’s going to be one of the greats.

  7. Steve

    Jun 24, 2016 at 10:17 pm

    I hate Facebook.

  8. Bob Pegram

    Jun 24, 2016 at 2:31 pm

    His very high hand position at address probably contributes to his tendency to miss to the right.

  9. Agreed

    Jun 24, 2016 at 1:07 pm

    Totally agree. Make it happen GolfWRX.

    • Shallowface

      Jun 24, 2016 at 3:52 pm

      Yeah, let’s link it to Facebook whose existence is the reason we need Snopes.
      All of you millennials are really going to be sorry when Freedom of Speech disappears altogether.

  10. Andrew

    Jun 24, 2016 at 12:21 am

    Maybe time BC to consider a blended set. 3-5 same length, 6-8 same length and 9 through to wedges same length. This will hopefully cover his short comings with the longer distance.

  11. Steve

    Jun 23, 2016 at 5:09 pm

    Excellent article.

    At what sample size is this data reliable enough to predict future performance?

    • Joe

      Jun 23, 2016 at 6:42 pm

      In no way does it predict future performance, but it does show current performance. Like I, and others, have pointed out he is in the learning curve. Also, he is under tremendous pressure to prove himself in order to gain entrance as a full time PGA Tour Player.

      He sought to enter the tour like Tiger did, win enough money or a tournament for automatic qualification. He is not Tiger. He needs seasoning on the mini tour.

      His problem is not his clubs, it is lack of experience and playing against a deep pool of talented Pro’s.
      He may have been the best in college and as an amateur, but this is a different stage. Everyone (!) on the tour are good, and all were successful as amateurs.

      There have been many who failed who were touted as the Next Great. No verdict yet on whether he will turn it around, go to the mini and up his game, become an average player, or rise to the top.

  12. Tc

    Jun 23, 2016 at 4:53 pm

    Poor guy. Getting analyzed this way just because he has them clubs.

    • Shallowface

      Jun 23, 2016 at 6:09 pm

      When a club or method is touted as being something that is going to revolutionize the way golf is played, it deserves this kind of scrutiny. Something truly revolutionary would be producing great results NOW, not after some sort of “learning curve.” I think Bryson is a quality individual and I hope he is successful, but I won’t be surprised if there are some changes along the way.

      • Joe

        Jun 23, 2016 at 10:46 pm

        This has nothing to do with the clubs.

        • Shallowface

          Jun 24, 2016 at 3:54 pm

          If has everything to do with the clubs. If not for the clubs, Bryson wouldn’t be drawing anywhere near the interest he is getting.

          • Joe

            Jun 24, 2016 at 10:07 pm

            You seem to forget that he was the NCAA and U.S. Champion. I believe this has only been done twice before. He would get interest regardless of what he plays.

            The article is about how he is doing competitively, not so good. There is no comparison between his clubs and what others are using. His stats have little to nothing to do with what he plays, but how he is playing. At this time his game (not his clubs) are what is in question.

            Single length irons are not new, they were used extensively in bygone era’s. I neither believe they are superior or inferior to the accepted current irons in use. They will not fit into everyones game, but I would think the ability to set up the same for every club would help the non-initiated golfer quite a bit. One-swing, one-setup.

    • John

      Jun 24, 2016 at 12:29 am

      Poor TC. At least your mom loves you

  13. Joe

    Jun 23, 2016 at 4:09 pm

    There is a learning curve. I think several years on the mini tour will help him. I do wonder about his resolve, this is an arrogant person with a lot of pride. Having to go to the Mini will affect him, the question is Negative vs Positive.

    Kuch came in heralded and disappeared for awhile, Bubba also spent some time in Time Out also.

  14. Emmizzle

    Jun 23, 2016 at 2:37 pm

    lol

  15. mr b

    Jun 23, 2016 at 1:44 pm

    he hits the ball so low.

    • mr b

      Jun 23, 2016 at 3:48 pm

      such a bully on the internet. so tough.

    • mr b

      Jun 23, 2016 at 3:50 pm

      you def win the award for golf internet forum tough guy of the year. congrats!

    • Kevin McKevKev

      Jun 23, 2016 at 11:46 pm

      At least he still plays Smizzo. The last time I saw you you were in the clubhouse smashing beers and talking about how you could have won the club championship if it wasn’t for a very unlucky 17 on the first.

      • Flavour Saver

        Jun 23, 2016 at 11:52 pm

        I remember that. He had an absolute brain fade and hit 5 shots out of bounds and then after a 4 putt he stripped of and kept yelling “I am the Smizzle. This can’t happen to the Smizzle”. From there things got really weird as he started coating himself in yogurt and then rolled around in the bunker for 4 hours before finally snapping all his clubs and throwing them in the lake. He still comes to the club everyday and is propped up at the bar telling anyone who will listen about how close he went to winning the club championships.

        • First Person

          Jun 24, 2016 at 12:05 am

          Did he really refer to himself in the Third Person? What a weirdo.

        • M Smoghurt

          Jun 24, 2016 at 6:06 pm

          People started to get suspicious when you were carrying a second golf bag.

  16. larrybud

    Jun 23, 2016 at 1:08 pm

    Iron data is the most telling, to me, and is a result of his single-length club setup. How easy can it be to control a finesse shot like 80 yards when you’re using clubs the length of a 6 iron?

    • Rich Hunt

      Jun 23, 2016 at 9:34 pm

      One should remember that the sample size is small. Furthermore, he switched from Edel to Cobra irons and I think there is a learning curve with that as well. I would not give up on them just yet.

  17. es

    Jun 23, 2016 at 9:22 am

    what is his status on the tour? did he use up all his exemptions for the year yet? he hasn’t qualified from his own merit yet correct?

    • mctrees02

      Jun 23, 2016 at 11:28 am

      So far, DeChambeau has earned the equivalent of 212 FedEx Cup points. He needs to earn 361 points before his 7 sponsors exemptions run out.

      Any event in which he finishes in the Top 10 automatically gets him into next week’s tournament and does not count against his 7 exemptions. As of today, he has the Quicken Loans (received invite as US Amateur champ) + 3 sponsors exemptions left to earn an additional 149 points.

      (below from a Golfchannel article)
      DeChambeau needs 361 points – the equivalent of 150th on last year’s FedEx Cup points list – to earn special temporary status on Tour, which would allow him to receive an unlimited number of sponsor exemptions for the rest of the season.

      If he reaches that threshold, he is playing for points or money equal to or greater than 125th in this year’s standings to earn exempt status for next season. That number is still a moving target, but for the sake of comparison, last year’s No. 125 had 458 points or $747,899 in earnings.

      At the very least, DeChambeau needs to earn enough points to finish inside the top 200 to reach the Web.com Tour Finals at the end of the year. That guarantees at least some status on the developmental circuit next year, with an opportunity, if he plays well, to earn a PGA Tour card.

      • es

        Jun 23, 2016 at 12:12 pm

        wow mctrees02, thank you for the detailed information.
        Looks like he really helped his cause by qualifying and playing well in the US Open. pressure is on to do well in those last 3 exemptions. if he makes it to 361 points i think he’ll make it to no.125

      • Emmizzle

        Jun 23, 2016 at 2:40 pm

        thanks

  18. Rich Hunt

    Jun 23, 2016 at 9:08 am

    That tends to be a bit of a learning curve as well. From my experience working with Tour players is that they tend to hit them too hard when they start out. Bryson is very speed conscious and works with Vector Putting (although he was taught AimPoint, first). But his putting from 15-25 feet usually indicates a firm putter of the ball and that may be a bit too firm on short ones.

  19. Forsbrand

    Jun 23, 2016 at 8:54 am

    When he scores well he’s wragged with his putter.

    He used totally different clubs to others and has faith in them, which is great, but I’m yet to see a major difference in his length or scoring with his clubs , ie knocking it closer than those average guys with standard equipment.

    If he wins two majors then I’ll change my mind

    • M.

      Jun 23, 2016 at 10:36 am

      Short irons are too long and long irons are too short?!

    • Concerned Troll

      Jun 24, 2016 at 9:36 am

      If you’re waiting for a definitive answer regarding whether or not single-length irons are “better” or “worse” than standard length irons, you’re not going to get one. They work for him because he likes them and has hit thousands of balls with them. Even if he were “knocking it closer” than the guys with standard equipment, that still doesn’t tell you jack about which set is better. It’s the indian not the arrow.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Hong Kong betting preview: Trio of major champs primed for big week

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LIV Golf is set to begin its fourth event of the season at Hong Kong Golf Club in Hong Kong, China. This marks the first time that LIV Golf will travel to China for an event.

Hong Kong Golf Club is a par 70 measuring 6,710 yards. LIV will be using the “Fanling Course” for the event.

While speaking with Asian Tour player Travis Smyth, he gave me a rundown on what it takes to be successful at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“Hong Kong golf club, it’s pretty old school, like super short and tight. And I, I don’t think it falls into like a bomber’s hand. I think you’ll see a lot of guys hitting it to roughly the same spots on the majority of the holes. There’s a few holes where Bryson will be able to unleash a few but not many. When I played here, I hit Hybrid on Par 4’s off the tee maybe like seven times.”

Travis also said that the tight fairways and penal potential misses will keep the bombers at bay.

“It’s just that sort of course you’re hitting it like anywhere from 220 to 240 off the tee. And then from there you have a range of holes where it’s like kind of some sort of wedge or nine. It’s not very long.”

Around the green game will also be tremendously important at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“The greens are small as well and it’s usually quite hard to get up and down if you miss the greens. Someone like Cameron Smith I could see doing really well there. He played well in the international series. but just someone that’s, you know, pretty dolled in with their, their scoring clubs, he’s probably going to do well there.”

Players dialed in with their game from tee to green with control over the golf ball should fare extremely well.

“You can’t really scramble from the trees either. So, you really just have to. I’d, yeah, just whoever’s the best ball striker that week, you can’t really strap it around and fake it around there. You got to hit it straight. The tree lines are dead, there’s some hazards and stuff. It’s a short, tight quirky course, not what any of these guys are probably used to.”

Despite it being short, don’t be surprised if it gives players some real trouble.

“It should be fun viewing because there’ll be a lot of opportunities. They’ll feel like they can go low around there because it’s short but, you know, you make a few bogeys, and you get quite frustrated, and you start pushing off the tee and find some trouble and stuff. It can eat you up as well.”

Smyth finished 2nd at Hong Kong Golf Club to qualify for the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.

Past Winners at Hong Kong Golf Club

  • 2023: Ben Campbell (-19)
  • 2022: Wade Ormsby (-17)
  • 2018: Aaron Rai (-17)
  • 2017: Wade Ormsby (-11)
  • 2016: Sam Brazel (-13)
  • 2015: Justin Rose (-19)
  • 2014: Scott Hend (-13)
  • 2013: Miguel Angel Jiminez (-12)

The top of the board once again will be a major threat this week. Jon Rahm is still in search of his first win on LIV and has been knocking at the door in each of his first three starts. Brooks Koepka hasn’t yet contended but is playing steady golf and has yet to shoot a round outside of the 60’s this season. Joaquin Niemann is the hottest player on the planet and has shown no signs of slowing down.

However, on a golf course that can neutralize the big hitters, this is an event that seems a bit more up for grabs than we’ve seen in the first three LIV events.

LIV Golf Stats YTD

 

2024 LIV Hong Kong Picks

Cameron Smith +2000 (Bet365, BetRivers)

It’s been a slow start for Cam Smith this season. In his three starts on LIV, he’s finished T8, T15, T41 and has yet to look like the Cam that is one of the best players in the world. Hong Kong Golf Club should be the perfect course fit to get the former Open Champion out of his slump.

Hong Kong Golf Club is tight off the tee, and many players won’t be able to hit driver. That will neutralize some of the best drivers of the golf ball in the field and propel players like Cam, who are almost unbeatable from fairway to green. Cam’s driver has been a weakness throughout his career, and it’s been especially pronounced this season. He’s tied for 51st in fairways hit thus far on the season. Taking driver out of his hand this week could be exactly what he needs to get on track.

Despite the poor tee balls, Smith still ranks 1st in putting and 5th in birdies made. He’s also a great scrambler, and with small greens at the course, having to get up and down is inevitable. If he can play from the fairway this week, he should have a major advantage in the other facets of the game.

Louis Oosthuizen +2000 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen should be an absolutely perfect fit for Hong Kong Golf Club. The South African has been remarkably consistent over the past few months dating back to the fall, where he won two consecutive DP World Tour events and also finished 2nd at the International Series Oman. In his three LIV starts this year, Louis has finished T8 at LIV Mayakoba, 50th at LIV Las Vegas and T2 at LIV Jeddah.

Louis is relatively short off the tee and that won’t hurt him this week. He is one of the best putters and scrambler on LIV, and his silky-smooth swing looks as dialed in as ever at the moment. He’s yet to win a LIV event, but a victory for Louis seems imminent.

Patrick Reed +5000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Reed is another play who’s yet to win a LIV event but has been a winner throughout his entire career. The former Masters champion should love Hong Kong Golf Club as it will play to his strengths on and around the greens.

Reed played on the Asian Tour this fall and finished T15 at the Hong Kong Open and T7 at the Indonesian Masters. The experience in Asia this season should be a benefit for Reed acclimating to the travel and conditions this week.

The 34-year-old should benefit from taking driver out of his hand and similar to Smith, can beat anyone in the world if the tournament become a short game competition.

*Featured Image and Stats Image courtesy of LIV Golf*

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