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Driver or 3-wood off the tee?

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I’ve been in a driving slump lately. Balls that once reliably went straight and (by my standards) long now may go left, right, or may not be long enough even to reach the trouble they are mistakenly headed toward.

Maybe four or five times a round now, my once trusty big stick sends a golf ball off into the no man’s land where good scores go to die.

By the 16th hole a few days ago, a friend who’d just closed me out suggested I use 3-wood off the tee instead of my erratic driver.

[quote_box_center]“You can’t hit it any worse,” I think is what he said.[/quote_box_center]

I didn’t listen to him of course; I hit driver like I always do and I finished OK. But it made me wonder, maybe I should hit 3-wood sometimes. I went out to some local courses to ask other golfers how often they hit 3-wood instead of driver.

“You’re giving up, what? Twenty yards hitting 3-wood?” Craig asked when I prodded him on the subject over a beer after his round at Greystalks.

“I suppose, yes, maybe 25,” I said. “But you’re trading that distance for accuracy.”

“Son,” he answered with his southern drawl, “you haven’t seen me hit 3-wood then.”

For players who pound the ball with nearly pro-like distance, giving up 20 yards, even on a 430-yard par-4, doesn’t really make that much difference; they sometimes happily trade that distance for accuracy.

[quote_box_center]“When I need to be in the fairway,” long-hitting Paul told me before teeing off, “I’ll hit 3-wood. But on most holes I use driver. It’s part of why I love golf, hitting a big drive. And I can fly those fairway bunkers on the right…”[/quote_box_center]

Of course sometimes the set-up of the hole dictates 3-wood instead of driver.

“I hit my driver 260 or so with maybe 230 yards carry,” Anthony said at Greendale GC. “If there’s trouble around 250, then I hit 3-wood off the tee. If the trouble ends before, say, 215, then I go over it.”

“What about trouble left or right?” I asked.

“I keep my driver straight enough,” he answered confidently.

For most golfers, the 3-wood is a more accurate club than driver off the tee.

“On a tight hole,” Steven, a 6-handicap in his mid-30s told me, “if there’s trouble right, I’ll consider hitting 3-wood. My usual miss with the driver is right, not left.”

Short par-4s are also a time when some weekend golfers choose the 3-wood off the tee.

[quote_box_center]“No way, boss,” Darrin contradicted me. “A short par-4 is when I want to power my drive as far as I can.”[/quote_box_center]

His friend Larson was standing with us on the driving range.

“I’ll try and lay-up to 80 or 90 yards for a full sand wedge on a short-4,” he said, “but I’ll use my hybrid probably, or maybe the 4-iron, not the 3-wood.”

“That’s playing it smart,” I said.

“Usually, not always,” Darrin interrupted. “There’s nothing worse than him trying to lay-up and then hitting the ball into trouble. I have to tell him there’s no whining in golf.”

I read somewhere that a good way for players to decide when to hit 3-wood rather than driver is to play a practice round on their home course hitting both driver and 3-wood (or whatever your longest wood is) off each tee to compare the results.

I tried it. I went to Verde Greens Country Club on a warm-to-hot Sunday afternoon in the Coachella Valley. I played a match: a Titleist ball with the driver vs. a Bridgestone with the 3-wood.

I had the course virtually to myself. That is, no one was there to see me skim my first drive 110 yards off the tee. I immediately put the Bridgestone on a peg and hit the 3-wood really well. I thought maybe I was on to something, but eventually both balls made a bogey on the par-5 opener.

The driver clearly struggled at the start, leaving the 3-wood/Bridgestone team in better shape off the tee through the first five driving holes. Despite that, the match was tied in holes, though a greenside failure left Titleist a stroke down.

Then driver hit its stride, with the Titleist finding the fairway on six of the next seven holes. Those favorable drives led to a stretch of pars and a two-hole, one-stroke lead.

When it was all over, on the 14 test holes (non par-3s), the Titleist and driver won match play 2-up shooting 68 to 3-wood and Bridgestone’s 69.

The driver and 3-wood each hit tee shots that led to five GIR, and three of those were the same holes, handicaps 3, 12 and 14, two short par-4s and a par-5.

On three of the 10 par-4s, the approach shots for the driver/Titleist were wedge distance, three times they were 7-irons and the others were long irons or hybrids. The 3-wood’s approach shots four times were another 3-wood, three were middle irons, two were wedges, and one was a 9-iron.

The driver outdistanced the 3-wood on nine of the 14 test holes by an average around 18 yards. Four of the other five holes were short wins by the 3-wood and the other was the aforementioned 110-yard driver on the opening hole.

The 3-wood/Bridgestone combination hit the fairway 12 of 14 times with one major screw-up. The driver found only nine fairways, hit two bunkers and had two misses right and one short.

An important difference I noted came on the three longest par-4s. On those, the second shot after the 3-wood drive was another 3-wood. And on one of those holes the Bridgestone had no chance to reach the green in regulation, while the Titleist was left with a hybrid 3-iron approach.

What to make of this?

It was just one round and there’s not enough data to be conclusive; clearly though, I’m capable of hitting both good and bad shots with both the driver and the 3-wood. If I only knew which was going to be which in advance.

Still, the overall advantage was with the driver, though perhaps there’s something to be gained by not automatically grabbing it on every par-4 or par-5.

I can’t tell you now what club I’m going to use on No. 1 next Saturday, I don’t know. But I do know that at some point in the round, after a poorly struck driver or 3-wood, I’ll probably think to myself: “I should have hit the tee shot with the other club.”

Do you sometimes hit 3-wood off the tee? What’s your game plan for using driver and 3-wood? Let us know in the comments section below. And read the humorous story of Don “Tin Foil” Reynolds as he tries to shoot the round of his life: check out 7-ironpress.com. Get free shipping on Tom Hill’s paperback, A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth, with the code GOLFWRX, or $4 off on the e-book when you enter the code GOLFWRX1 at check-out. It’s a great Father’s Day gift.

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Tom Hill is a 9.7 handicap, author and former radio reporter. Hill is the author of the recently released fiction novel, A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth, a humorous golf saga of one player’s unexpected attempt to shoot a score he never before thought possible. Kirkus Reviews raved about A Perfect Lie, (It) “has the immediacy of a memoir…it’s no gimme but Hill nails it square.” (kirkusreviews.com). A Perfect Lie is available as an ebook or paperback through 7-ironpress.com and the first three chapters are available online to sample. Hill is a dedicated golfer who has played more than 2,000 rounds in the past 30 years and had a one-time personal best handicap of 5.5. As a freelance radio reporter, Hill covered more than 60 PGA and LPGA tournaments working for CBS Radio, ABC Radio, AP Audio, The Mutual Broadcasting System and individual radio stations around the country. “Few knew my name and no one saw my face,” he says, “but millions heard my voice.” Hill is the father of three sons and lives with his wife, Arava Talve, in southern California where he chases after a little white ball as often as he can.

40 Comments

40 Comments

  1. Ed

    Sep 16, 2022 at 12:07 pm

    Great another single digit golfer’s opinion on 3 wood vs driver off the tee. I love the comments from those who just don’t understand why you just don’t use the driver or that all you need to do is choke down a bit. After 15 years of practice and lessons I still spray the ball all over the place with the driver my second shot is 90% of the time from the rough or behind a tree or drop from lateral or water hazard. When I play 3 wood I shoot in the mid 80’s with the driver mid 90’s. I know in theory if I can hit the 3 wood straight and far I should be able to do the same with driver but after 15 years of trying I have decided to shot lower scores instead.

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  4. Trey Wingbat

    Aug 31, 2016 at 6:49 pm

    I don’t understand how it’s easier to hit a 3 or 5 wood off the tee rather than a driver? If I want to hit a shorter shot, say 240 yards or so off the tee, I simply choke down on my driver, and it does the trick every time. The bigger club head seems to me like you’d be much more consistent off a driver than a 3 or 5 wood.

    I do also choke down on my pitching wedge and gap wedge when within a certain distance, so maybe I have the entire concept of choking down to a tee (pardon the pun), and most people don’t even consider this.

  5. Chris

    May 30, 2015 at 7:02 pm

    I often use 3 wood on uphill drives, and downwind drives. My overall total distance is often quite similar in those 2 situations and the 3 wood gives me an accuracy advantage. And on tight longer holes I’ll often reach for 3 wood or hybrid even if it’ll leave me an extra club or two in on the approach because after I analyzed stats it made an approximate .2+ strokes per hole difference in those situations to find the fairway.

  6. et

    May 26, 2015 at 1:01 am

    all goes out the window when you mess up the conservative 3wood off the tee to end up 200 plus out for the second shot.

  7. Jeff

    May 24, 2015 at 3:45 pm

    Yall haven’t moved up to the white tees yet? Ha. Keep spending money. See ya next year.

  8. Lowell Madanes

    May 24, 2015 at 3:20 pm

    A lot of the decision is really based on how accurate you are with your driver. If you are talking hooks and slices then for sure we would be in for using 3 wood off the tee. If you are talking slight pulls and pushes, then I would stick with the distance over accuracy. I average 285 off the tee and my 4 wood gets me in the 245 range. Would I give up 40 yards in order to be a little straighter. Answer would be no in my case. I would much rather be further up an extra 40 yards and be off of the fairway in the rough rather than 40 yards back and be in the fairway. Mind you my example here is a staight forward par 4 that has typical bunkers. Each hole and each course will vary and taking one over the other is personal preference. Go with which club hits it the furthest and most accurate.

  9. Paddy

    May 21, 2015 at 11:03 am

    I struggle to answer this question too. I’m an aggressive player and always use the driver (except for par 3s of course) with a handicap of 13. My driver swing speed is between 95-98 mph and carry 230 yards with a maximum distance of 270-280 yards on a good day. Recently I’ve started to reduce my swing speed by 20% to allow for batter accuracy as I usually have a disgusting slice at 100%. Using my 3 wood at 100% swing, I can reach 250 yards on a good day with accuracy. I’d always ask my playing partner for advice on what to use on each tee and his response is “driver – always driver” so I tend to use my 3 wood on my 2nd shot for par 5s. I issue is that I lack the confidence on using the 3 wood off the tee even though I am more accurate with it than the driver, I guess the thought that goes through my head is how embarrassing it would be if I miss hit the 3 wood off the tee as the other plays may judge me and have a misconception that I think I’m better than them as I use a 3 wood instead of a driver off the tee. A couple of weeks ago, I was paired up with a golfer who could easily hit 300+ yards off the tee with his driver and only used it a handful of times on that round. So I asked him how he determines what club to use off the tee and his response was; any holes that plays 380 yards or below, he uses his 3 wood and this will increase your confidence with every 3 wood shots. So going forwards, I’m going to use this rule and see how I fair compared to using the driver for every tee.

  10. RobG

    May 21, 2015 at 10:08 am

    I have a young family and I work in the consulting industry, the only time I get to play golf is with clients, suppliers, industry sponsored tournaments, and company scrambles. When playing in those situations it’s almost always white tees in the 6000-6300 yard range. If I hit driver off the tee on most par 4’s I’m left with awkward 60-90 yard approach shots and since I don’t play that much those shots are very difficult. I would much rather hit 3W off the tee and give up 30 yards so I can hit full wedges and short irons into greens.

  11. Desmond

    May 20, 2015 at 8:58 pm

    On tighter holes, I typically forget to grip down 1.5 inches for more control because I’m working on swing thoughts …. lol

  12. Rich

    May 20, 2015 at 5:50 pm

    I will hit either depending on the course set up at my home club. For example, the 10th is a 389 metre par 4 from the tips. I hit driver from that tee because I can’t reach the fairway bunker. If the tees are forward, I hit three wood because the fairway bunker is in play for driver. It would be the opposite on 16 though. 351 metre par 4 and if the tees are back I’ll hit short of the fairway bunker with 3 iron or something and if the tees are up, I’ll hit driver over the fairway bunker. If it’s driver or 3 wood or whatever else, the shot you play should have the highest percentage for you to have your best score, not just pound it down the fairway.

  13. Alex

    May 20, 2015 at 11:48 am

    I always go with my driver, save a very short par 4 that needs a hybrid. The thing is the driver is the club I feel most confident about in my bag. Now the other day I took 5 clubs for a quick nine. I grabbed my 3 wood instead of driver and I realized I can hit it really long and straight off the tee. So I’m considering now.

  14. Dave S

    May 20, 2015 at 10:57 am

    I go through highs and lows with my driver as well. Currently I can’t hit it in play to save my life, so I left it in the bag for two round in a row on two pretty tough courses. I played better than I would have hitting driver. For me, getting a ball in the fairway (or at least in the first cut with a look at the hole) means a world of difference in my scores. Like most amateurs, I suffer from the one or two blow-up holes a round that wreak your score. That Par 5 where you hit your drive into the trees that then requires you to hit 3/5 wood off the deck on your second shot to even have a shot at bogey, ends-up turning into a triple, murdering your score. If I hit a ball over 200 yds into the fairway, I’m pretty much guaranteed no less than bogey since I’m decently proficient with my irons, short game and putting. But I just cannot afford the errant tee shot… Until I can get to the range for a long practice session to hopefully work out the kinks in my driver swing, I’ll be hitting 3w for the foreseeable future.

  15. Pete

    May 20, 2015 at 10:04 am

    I hit 3-wood 12 of 14 times a round. I actually only grab the driver if I have lost some confidence after a bad tee shot with my 3-wood (because the face is so big). I hit the 3 just as far, if not further, and definitely straighter. I bought the Callaway X Hot 3 Deep to make this 3-wood a mini-driver. Works great, and I am contemplating dropping the driver all together and adding another hybrid. Definitely worth a try.

  16. Kurt

    May 20, 2015 at 10:00 am

    Good test; interesting and well written article.

    For me, I think the call is situational. Some days, if getting stuck with the Driver (my fault), then the 3W is a stop gap. I tend not to overs wing that club and it ends up in play.

    Further, on certain holes, I think the decision comes down to confidence. Everyone has holes that don’t “fit their eye.” Don’t overthink it. Hit the 3W on those holes, sacrifice the distance, but save the stroke or poor result because of a less than committed swing.

  17. Golfraven

    May 20, 2015 at 4:55 am

    Currently making friends with my 3 FW then my driver. Even with same shaft I am hitting it better with the wood and more consistent. For now the driver will only be used on the driving range.

  18. Mike

    May 20, 2015 at 3:30 am

    Well written article on your experience with the driver / 3 wood trade off.

    I’d advise you to purchase Richie Hunt’s work, namely Pro Golf Psynosis 2013. He studdied tour stats and numbers (so i agree the data suggests more elite level performance principles) but his research led to designers listening and the design of clubs such as the SLDR mini driver / phrankenwood.

    His research is sound and also takes into account the likely proximity to the hole from both driver follow up shots and 3 wood shots, both fairway and rough.

    He is a fellow writer for this site.

    Nice work Tom.

  19. Philip

    May 19, 2015 at 8:27 pm

    I’ll continue to hit 2 wood until I can hit my driver further (no slice/duff/hook). Besides my max with both is the same, so until I can pipe my 2W straight down the middle with a draw/fade that was by choice – in the bag it’ll stay.

    • adam

      May 20, 2015 at 12:25 am

      farther

      • TheCityGame

        May 20, 2015 at 9:50 am

        Love it when people correct others and they’re incorrect, or only marginally correct in very specific circumstances.

        http://grammarist.com/usage/farther-further/

        “Many counterexamples could be found, however, and using further in place of farther is never an error”

      • Jeff

        May 24, 2015 at 3:41 pm

        Nothing wrong with the use of further in this instance. It would be better to completely learn the language you are attempting to correct than learn a few rules and and replacements. Yeah, I before e, most of the time, not always. Read books, not Internet forum replys. Stop being pedantic, it’s unoriginal. You’re just mad cause dude stripes his 2 wood and you think you should dribble your driver further/farther, see, doesn’t matter. It can’t always be your way.

  20. Jonny B

    May 19, 2015 at 4:10 pm

    For me it is dictated by the hole. I tend to hit a fade with my driver, and a draw with my 3 wood. I average about 265 with driver and 245 with the 3 wood. I like to hit driver but if the hole doglegs left or runs out of fairway I am going with 3 wood. I’m equally accurate with both and usually hit about 50% of fairways.

  21. I

    May 19, 2015 at 3:22 pm

    I do not give up much yardage at all if any. For some reason both my 13.5* 3-wood and driver travel around 270ish (may be a swing flaw in my driver)……instead I use it for the shot shape needed, driver to fade and 3 wood to draw. Henrik Stenson inspired me to use 3-wood a ton off the tee, for me 3-wood and driver are equal as accurate, I just prefer the flight of the 3-wood more

  22. Andy muir

    May 19, 2015 at 2:27 pm

    I played all last season with only 3 wood in bag, never lost much distance but kept ball in play on fairway all the time. Gave me the confidence to buy new driver this season after working on my swing with the 3 wood.

  23. Joel

    May 19, 2015 at 2:10 pm

    I use 3-wood on many holes of my 7,400 yard home course. It’s for a few different reasons.
    1. The fattest part of the fairway is my three wood. Why should I hit driver if both clubs give me a wedge in and the driver would fly to a skinnier part of the fairway?
    2. I can control my distance and spin the ball better on a 3/4 or full wedge than a 60 yard pitch.
    3. On a very narrow hole where I have to hit the fairway because…
    4. I do hit my 3-wood straighter
    Having said that. Where trouble is, distance and direction is the primary reason to pick my tee shot club followed by the rules above.

  24. Mandark

    May 19, 2015 at 1:55 pm

    Only 68? What a horrible dilemma.

    • Desmond

      May 20, 2015 at 8:57 pm

      It was for 14 holes according to the writer — no par 3’s.

  25. rer4136

    May 19, 2015 at 1:26 pm

    Somewhat baffled. You shot 68 and 69 and say you struggle off the tee?

    • Bryan P

      May 19, 2015 at 1:55 pm

      that was probably the scores from the non-par 3 holes… so add about 12 if there was 2 a side and its 80-81. I think he said the comparison was on the non-par 3 homes so I would assume that is what the scores were from. I could be wrong though.

    • Tom HIll

      May 19, 2015 at 5:13 pm

      no, no, no I wish – for the 14 test holes – the par 4s and par 5s, I shot 68 and 69 – for the round it was an 82 and an 83

  26. F M shouse

    May 19, 2015 at 1:17 pm

    Hit 1 iron off tee one of the new driving irons from calls way or taylormade or old one like vft. Practice long irons for into greens either run up or high shots. Focus on wedges and putting. Move up to white tees have s beer and enjoy. Use driver only to show playing partner that you can blast it into next county if you want too.

    • Philip

      May 19, 2015 at 8:30 pm

      If I cannot get my woods under control I will go all irons by the fall. My irons 4 – PW have been saving my bacon whenever my woods get me into trouble.

  27. Nate

    May 19, 2015 at 11:43 am

    My driver tee ball is usually a high baby fade that carries about 270 and rolls to about 295. Sometimes I can really get a hold of one and hit it about 320. When I miss, it is always way right. My 3 wood carries about 250 and usually has a low boring trajectory which leads to about 20-30 yds of roll. My miss is a pull left. I like to lay back off the tee and go with 3 wood when there is trouble right. I am not any more accurate with my 3 wood than my driver so if I need to hit a fairway, I will got with a 3 iron that I can hit about 230-235 when struck well. I am really lucky because I can hit my irons really high, so hitting a low to mid iron into the green isn’t usually an issue.

  28. Tony

    May 19, 2015 at 11:25 am

    I haven’t carried a driver for roughly 3 years. I’m not a stellar golfer, basically a straight bogey guy, but my #1 problem has always been getting off the box in one piece.

    My 3 wood (2008 Cleveland Launcher) is my spirit animal. When it’s on I hit it like a dream. Despite my handicap, I’m a long hitter (being 6’4 helps), so not having a driver doesn’t really hurt me terribly much. For some reason, the larger clubhead triggers something in my brain and makes me incapable of hitting it.

    I guess it really depends on the player at the end of the day. I have friends who score worse than me but their driver is the only club they hit consistently well. I’m the opposite.

  29. Leon

    May 19, 2015 at 11:24 am

    I got an easy solution: cut your driver shaft to 43″ instead of its current 45″-46″. Change to a lighter grip or add some weights on the head to bring the swing weight back to your preference. Now you have a big stick with the same length of a 3 wood but offers lower loft, tons of more forgiveness, higher COR (titanium face vs steel face) = longer distance, and what else? Confidence!

    Unless you can manage the 3 wood to reach the par 5 in 2, otherwise, replace it with an additional wedge or something that helps your short game.

  30. TR1PTIK

    May 19, 2015 at 10:49 am

    There are certain holes on my local muni where I need to bench the driver unless I want to flirt with OB and I typically hit my 3-wood between 240-250 off the tee so it’s a good option for me on a lot of the short par 4’s in my area. I’ve also knocked my 21* hybrid as much as 235 off the turf and hit a 270+ tee shot with it yesterday (thanks to a 10mph tailwind). Needless to say, I’m not lacking for distance if I use something other than driver – I just really like to hit it because of the potential for even more yardage.

  31. Carlos Danger

    May 19, 2015 at 10:32 am

    Stopped carrying a 3 wood about a month ago for a number of reasons:
    1. Picked up a 19 SLDR and it goes really far. I can get it out there to 260 off the tee. Which at my home course (and pretty much any course) is plenty far.
    2. I play a fade with my driver and if I miss I miss soft right. Rarely miss left. I play a draw with all my other clubs and if I miss with a Fwy/hybrid it goes left. If I miss with a 3W it goes WAY left.
    3. I rarely hit a 3W from the fairway…and if I do I can count on my hand the successful shots I have hit with it. Why risk a bad shot to hit it 265-70 (3W) when I know I can hit a safe 240 shot with a hybrid?

    So… I took the 3w out and added a driving iron that gives me a nice 230ish low ball flight. Loving the setup so far. However…I LOVE 3 Woods so its really hard not to put one in the bag. I have 3 or 4 sweet 3w setups sitting here but hopefully I can stay strong and stick to the setup that is working for me.

    In closing, I would say that if you hit hybrids well, I would test out a lower lofted hybrid (16-17) and see what kind of results you get. If your finding the fariway more often…maybe thats ht move for you.

  32. B

    May 19, 2015 at 10:15 am

    If driver is going to leave me with more that 70 yards but less than 115 then I will opt for 3 wood. Would rather have a full pitching wedge than a partial lob or sand wedge into the green.
    If I want to hit a draw that flies high and stops quickly I will opt for 3 wood. If I feel that hitting a great drive on a par 5 will still leave me with a risky long iron or hybrid, then I will take 3 wood or the hybrid on the par 5 tee and take my 3rd from 130-160 yards.

    There are a few other special situations that would make me go in that direction but I cant think of them right now.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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