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Driver or 3-wood off the tee?

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I’ve been in a driving slump lately. Balls that once reliably went straight and (by my standards) long now may go left, right, or may not be long enough even to reach the trouble they are mistakenly headed toward.

Maybe four or five times a round now, my once trusty big stick sends a golf ball off into the no man’s land where good scores go to die.

By the 16th hole a few days ago, a friend who’d just closed me out suggested I use 3-wood off the tee instead of my erratic driver.

[quote_box_center]“You can’t hit it any worse,” I think is what he said.[/quote_box_center]

I didn’t listen to him of course; I hit driver like I always do and I finished OK. But it made me wonder, maybe I should hit 3-wood sometimes. I went out to some local courses to ask other golfers how often they hit 3-wood instead of driver.

“You’re giving up, what? Twenty yards hitting 3-wood?” Craig asked when I prodded him on the subject over a beer after his round at Greystalks.

“I suppose, yes, maybe 25,” I said. “But you’re trading that distance for accuracy.”

“Son,” he answered with his southern drawl, “you haven’t seen me hit 3-wood then.”

For players who pound the ball with nearly pro-like distance, giving up 20 yards, even on a 430-yard par-4, doesn’t really make that much difference; they sometimes happily trade that distance for accuracy.

[quote_box_center]“When I need to be in the fairway,” long-hitting Paul told me before teeing off, “I’ll hit 3-wood. But on most holes I use driver. It’s part of why I love golf, hitting a big drive. And I can fly those fairway bunkers on the right…”[/quote_box_center]

Of course sometimes the set-up of the hole dictates 3-wood instead of driver.

“I hit my driver 260 or so with maybe 230 yards carry,” Anthony said at Greendale GC. “If there’s trouble around 250, then I hit 3-wood off the tee. If the trouble ends before, say, 215, then I go over it.”

“What about trouble left or right?” I asked.

“I keep my driver straight enough,” he answered confidently.

For most golfers, the 3-wood is a more accurate club than driver off the tee.

“On a tight hole,” Steven, a 6-handicap in his mid-30s told me, “if there’s trouble right, I’ll consider hitting 3-wood. My usual miss with the driver is right, not left.”

Short par-4s are also a time when some weekend golfers choose the 3-wood off the tee.

[quote_box_center]“No way, boss,” Darrin contradicted me. “A short par-4 is when I want to power my drive as far as I can.”[/quote_box_center]

His friend Larson was standing with us on the driving range.

“I’ll try and lay-up to 80 or 90 yards for a full sand wedge on a short-4,” he said, “but I’ll use my hybrid probably, or maybe the 4-iron, not the 3-wood.”

“That’s playing it smart,” I said.

“Usually, not always,” Darrin interrupted. “There’s nothing worse than him trying to lay-up and then hitting the ball into trouble. I have to tell him there’s no whining in golf.”

I read somewhere that a good way for players to decide when to hit 3-wood rather than driver is to play a practice round on their home course hitting both driver and 3-wood (or whatever your longest wood is) off each tee to compare the results.

I tried it. I went to Verde Greens Country Club on a warm-to-hot Sunday afternoon in the Coachella Valley. I played a match: a Titleist ball with the driver vs. a Bridgestone with the 3-wood.

I had the course virtually to myself. That is, no one was there to see me skim my first drive 110 yards off the tee. I immediately put the Bridgestone on a peg and hit the 3-wood really well. I thought maybe I was on to something, but eventually both balls made a bogey on the par-5 opener.

The driver clearly struggled at the start, leaving the 3-wood/Bridgestone team in better shape off the tee through the first five driving holes. Despite that, the match was tied in holes, though a greenside failure left Titleist a stroke down.

Then driver hit its stride, with the Titleist finding the fairway on six of the next seven holes. Those favorable drives led to a stretch of pars and a two-hole, one-stroke lead.

When it was all over, on the 14 test holes (non par-3s), the Titleist and driver won match play 2-up shooting 68 to 3-wood and Bridgestone’s 69.

The driver and 3-wood each hit tee shots that led to five GIR, and three of those were the same holes, handicaps 3, 12 and 14, two short par-4s and a par-5.

On three of the 10 par-4s, the approach shots for the driver/Titleist were wedge distance, three times they were 7-irons and the others were long irons or hybrids. The 3-wood’s approach shots four times were another 3-wood, three were middle irons, two were wedges, and one was a 9-iron.

The driver outdistanced the 3-wood on nine of the 14 test holes by an average around 18 yards. Four of the other five holes were short wins by the 3-wood and the other was the aforementioned 110-yard driver on the opening hole.

The 3-wood/Bridgestone combination hit the fairway 12 of 14 times with one major screw-up. The driver found only nine fairways, hit two bunkers and had two misses right and one short.

An important difference I noted came on the three longest par-4s. On those, the second shot after the 3-wood drive was another 3-wood. And on one of those holes the Bridgestone had no chance to reach the green in regulation, while the Titleist was left with a hybrid 3-iron approach.

What to make of this?

It was just one round and there’s not enough data to be conclusive; clearly though, I’m capable of hitting both good and bad shots with both the driver and the 3-wood. If I only knew which was going to be which in advance.

Still, the overall advantage was with the driver, though perhaps there’s something to be gained by not automatically grabbing it on every par-4 or par-5.

I can’t tell you now what club I’m going to use on No. 1 next Saturday, I don’t know. But I do know that at some point in the round, after a poorly struck driver or 3-wood, I’ll probably think to myself: “I should have hit the tee shot with the other club.”

Do you sometimes hit 3-wood off the tee? What’s your game plan for using driver and 3-wood? Let us know in the comments section below. And read the humorous story of Don “Tin Foil” Reynolds as he tries to shoot the round of his life: check out 7-ironpress.com. Get free shipping on Tom Hill’s paperback, A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth, with the code GOLFWRX, or $4 off on the e-book when you enter the code GOLFWRX1 at check-out. It’s a great Father’s Day gift.

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Tom Hill is a 9.7 handicap, author and former radio reporter. Hill is the author of the recently released fiction novel, A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth, a humorous golf saga of one player’s unexpected attempt to shoot a score he never before thought possible. Kirkus Reviews raved about A Perfect Lie, (It) “has the immediacy of a memoir…it’s no gimme but Hill nails it square.” (kirkusreviews.com). A Perfect Lie is available as an ebook or paperback through 7-ironpress.com and the first three chapters are available online to sample. Hill is a dedicated golfer who has played more than 2,000 rounds in the past 30 years and had a one-time personal best handicap of 5.5. As a freelance radio reporter, Hill covered more than 60 PGA and LPGA tournaments working for CBS Radio, ABC Radio, AP Audio, The Mutual Broadcasting System and individual radio stations around the country. “Few knew my name and no one saw my face,” he says, “but millions heard my voice.” Hill is the father of three sons and lives with his wife, Arava Talve, in southern California where he chases after a little white ball as often as he can.

40 Comments

40 Comments

  1. Ed

    Sep 16, 2022 at 12:07 pm

    Great another single digit golfer’s opinion on 3 wood vs driver off the tee. I love the comments from those who just don’t understand why you just don’t use the driver or that all you need to do is choke down a bit. After 15 years of practice and lessons I still spray the ball all over the place with the driver my second shot is 90% of the time from the rough or behind a tree or drop from lateral or water hazard. When I play 3 wood I shoot in the mid 80’s with the driver mid 90’s. I know in theory if I can hit the 3 wood straight and far I should be able to do the same with driver but after 15 years of trying I have decided to shot lower scores instead.

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  4. Trey Wingbat

    Aug 31, 2016 at 6:49 pm

    I don’t understand how it’s easier to hit a 3 or 5 wood off the tee rather than a driver? If I want to hit a shorter shot, say 240 yards or so off the tee, I simply choke down on my driver, and it does the trick every time. The bigger club head seems to me like you’d be much more consistent off a driver than a 3 or 5 wood.

    I do also choke down on my pitching wedge and gap wedge when within a certain distance, so maybe I have the entire concept of choking down to a tee (pardon the pun), and most people don’t even consider this.

  5. Chris

    May 30, 2015 at 7:02 pm

    I often use 3 wood on uphill drives, and downwind drives. My overall total distance is often quite similar in those 2 situations and the 3 wood gives me an accuracy advantage. And on tight longer holes I’ll often reach for 3 wood or hybrid even if it’ll leave me an extra club or two in on the approach because after I analyzed stats it made an approximate .2+ strokes per hole difference in those situations to find the fairway.

  6. et

    May 26, 2015 at 1:01 am

    all goes out the window when you mess up the conservative 3wood off the tee to end up 200 plus out for the second shot.

  7. Jeff

    May 24, 2015 at 3:45 pm

    Yall haven’t moved up to the white tees yet? Ha. Keep spending money. See ya next year.

  8. Lowell Madanes

    May 24, 2015 at 3:20 pm

    A lot of the decision is really based on how accurate you are with your driver. If you are talking hooks and slices then for sure we would be in for using 3 wood off the tee. If you are talking slight pulls and pushes, then I would stick with the distance over accuracy. I average 285 off the tee and my 4 wood gets me in the 245 range. Would I give up 40 yards in order to be a little straighter. Answer would be no in my case. I would much rather be further up an extra 40 yards and be off of the fairway in the rough rather than 40 yards back and be in the fairway. Mind you my example here is a staight forward par 4 that has typical bunkers. Each hole and each course will vary and taking one over the other is personal preference. Go with which club hits it the furthest and most accurate.

  9. Paddy

    May 21, 2015 at 11:03 am

    I struggle to answer this question too. I’m an aggressive player and always use the driver (except for par 3s of course) with a handicap of 13. My driver swing speed is between 95-98 mph and carry 230 yards with a maximum distance of 270-280 yards on a good day. Recently I’ve started to reduce my swing speed by 20% to allow for batter accuracy as I usually have a disgusting slice at 100%. Using my 3 wood at 100% swing, I can reach 250 yards on a good day with accuracy. I’d always ask my playing partner for advice on what to use on each tee and his response is “driver – always driver” so I tend to use my 3 wood on my 2nd shot for par 5s. I issue is that I lack the confidence on using the 3 wood off the tee even though I am more accurate with it than the driver, I guess the thought that goes through my head is how embarrassing it would be if I miss hit the 3 wood off the tee as the other plays may judge me and have a misconception that I think I’m better than them as I use a 3 wood instead of a driver off the tee. A couple of weeks ago, I was paired up with a golfer who could easily hit 300+ yards off the tee with his driver and only used it a handful of times on that round. So I asked him how he determines what club to use off the tee and his response was; any holes that plays 380 yards or below, he uses his 3 wood and this will increase your confidence with every 3 wood shots. So going forwards, I’m going to use this rule and see how I fair compared to using the driver for every tee.

  10. RobG

    May 21, 2015 at 10:08 am

    I have a young family and I work in the consulting industry, the only time I get to play golf is with clients, suppliers, industry sponsored tournaments, and company scrambles. When playing in those situations it’s almost always white tees in the 6000-6300 yard range. If I hit driver off the tee on most par 4’s I’m left with awkward 60-90 yard approach shots and since I don’t play that much those shots are very difficult. I would much rather hit 3W off the tee and give up 30 yards so I can hit full wedges and short irons into greens.

  11. Desmond

    May 20, 2015 at 8:58 pm

    On tighter holes, I typically forget to grip down 1.5 inches for more control because I’m working on swing thoughts …. lol

  12. Rich

    May 20, 2015 at 5:50 pm

    I will hit either depending on the course set up at my home club. For example, the 10th is a 389 metre par 4 from the tips. I hit driver from that tee because I can’t reach the fairway bunker. If the tees are forward, I hit three wood because the fairway bunker is in play for driver. It would be the opposite on 16 though. 351 metre par 4 and if the tees are back I’ll hit short of the fairway bunker with 3 iron or something and if the tees are up, I’ll hit driver over the fairway bunker. If it’s driver or 3 wood or whatever else, the shot you play should have the highest percentage for you to have your best score, not just pound it down the fairway.

  13. Alex

    May 20, 2015 at 11:48 am

    I always go with my driver, save a very short par 4 that needs a hybrid. The thing is the driver is the club I feel most confident about in my bag. Now the other day I took 5 clubs for a quick nine. I grabbed my 3 wood instead of driver and I realized I can hit it really long and straight off the tee. So I’m considering now.

  14. Dave S

    May 20, 2015 at 10:57 am

    I go through highs and lows with my driver as well. Currently I can’t hit it in play to save my life, so I left it in the bag for two round in a row on two pretty tough courses. I played better than I would have hitting driver. For me, getting a ball in the fairway (or at least in the first cut with a look at the hole) means a world of difference in my scores. Like most amateurs, I suffer from the one or two blow-up holes a round that wreak your score. That Par 5 where you hit your drive into the trees that then requires you to hit 3/5 wood off the deck on your second shot to even have a shot at bogey, ends-up turning into a triple, murdering your score. If I hit a ball over 200 yds into the fairway, I’m pretty much guaranteed no less than bogey since I’m decently proficient with my irons, short game and putting. But I just cannot afford the errant tee shot… Until I can get to the range for a long practice session to hopefully work out the kinks in my driver swing, I’ll be hitting 3w for the foreseeable future.

  15. Pete

    May 20, 2015 at 10:04 am

    I hit 3-wood 12 of 14 times a round. I actually only grab the driver if I have lost some confidence after a bad tee shot with my 3-wood (because the face is so big). I hit the 3 just as far, if not further, and definitely straighter. I bought the Callaway X Hot 3 Deep to make this 3-wood a mini-driver. Works great, and I am contemplating dropping the driver all together and adding another hybrid. Definitely worth a try.

  16. Kurt

    May 20, 2015 at 10:00 am

    Good test; interesting and well written article.

    For me, I think the call is situational. Some days, if getting stuck with the Driver (my fault), then the 3W is a stop gap. I tend not to overs wing that club and it ends up in play.

    Further, on certain holes, I think the decision comes down to confidence. Everyone has holes that don’t “fit their eye.” Don’t overthink it. Hit the 3W on those holes, sacrifice the distance, but save the stroke or poor result because of a less than committed swing.

  17. Golfraven

    May 20, 2015 at 4:55 am

    Currently making friends with my 3 FW then my driver. Even with same shaft I am hitting it better with the wood and more consistent. For now the driver will only be used on the driving range.

  18. Mike

    May 20, 2015 at 3:30 am

    Well written article on your experience with the driver / 3 wood trade off.

    I’d advise you to purchase Richie Hunt’s work, namely Pro Golf Psynosis 2013. He studdied tour stats and numbers (so i agree the data suggests more elite level performance principles) but his research led to designers listening and the design of clubs such as the SLDR mini driver / phrankenwood.

    His research is sound and also takes into account the likely proximity to the hole from both driver follow up shots and 3 wood shots, both fairway and rough.

    He is a fellow writer for this site.

    Nice work Tom.

  19. Philip

    May 19, 2015 at 8:27 pm

    I’ll continue to hit 2 wood until I can hit my driver further (no slice/duff/hook). Besides my max with both is the same, so until I can pipe my 2W straight down the middle with a draw/fade that was by choice – in the bag it’ll stay.

    • adam

      May 20, 2015 at 12:25 am

      farther

      • TheCityGame

        May 20, 2015 at 9:50 am

        Love it when people correct others and they’re incorrect, or only marginally correct in very specific circumstances.

        http://grammarist.com/usage/farther-further/

        “Many counterexamples could be found, however, and using further in place of farther is never an error”

      • Jeff

        May 24, 2015 at 3:41 pm

        Nothing wrong with the use of further in this instance. It would be better to completely learn the language you are attempting to correct than learn a few rules and and replacements. Yeah, I before e, most of the time, not always. Read books, not Internet forum replys. Stop being pedantic, it’s unoriginal. You’re just mad cause dude stripes his 2 wood and you think you should dribble your driver further/farther, see, doesn’t matter. It can’t always be your way.

  20. Jonny B

    May 19, 2015 at 4:10 pm

    For me it is dictated by the hole. I tend to hit a fade with my driver, and a draw with my 3 wood. I average about 265 with driver and 245 with the 3 wood. I like to hit driver but if the hole doglegs left or runs out of fairway I am going with 3 wood. I’m equally accurate with both and usually hit about 50% of fairways.

  21. I

    May 19, 2015 at 3:22 pm

    I do not give up much yardage at all if any. For some reason both my 13.5* 3-wood and driver travel around 270ish (may be a swing flaw in my driver)……instead I use it for the shot shape needed, driver to fade and 3 wood to draw. Henrik Stenson inspired me to use 3-wood a ton off the tee, for me 3-wood and driver are equal as accurate, I just prefer the flight of the 3-wood more

  22. Andy muir

    May 19, 2015 at 2:27 pm

    I played all last season with only 3 wood in bag, never lost much distance but kept ball in play on fairway all the time. Gave me the confidence to buy new driver this season after working on my swing with the 3 wood.

  23. Joel

    May 19, 2015 at 2:10 pm

    I use 3-wood on many holes of my 7,400 yard home course. It’s for a few different reasons.
    1. The fattest part of the fairway is my three wood. Why should I hit driver if both clubs give me a wedge in and the driver would fly to a skinnier part of the fairway?
    2. I can control my distance and spin the ball better on a 3/4 or full wedge than a 60 yard pitch.
    3. On a very narrow hole where I have to hit the fairway because…
    4. I do hit my 3-wood straighter
    Having said that. Where trouble is, distance and direction is the primary reason to pick my tee shot club followed by the rules above.

  24. Mandark

    May 19, 2015 at 1:55 pm

    Only 68? What a horrible dilemma.

    • Desmond

      May 20, 2015 at 8:57 pm

      It was for 14 holes according to the writer — no par 3’s.

  25. rer4136

    May 19, 2015 at 1:26 pm

    Somewhat baffled. You shot 68 and 69 and say you struggle off the tee?

    • Bryan P

      May 19, 2015 at 1:55 pm

      that was probably the scores from the non-par 3 holes… so add about 12 if there was 2 a side and its 80-81. I think he said the comparison was on the non-par 3 homes so I would assume that is what the scores were from. I could be wrong though.

    • Tom HIll

      May 19, 2015 at 5:13 pm

      no, no, no I wish – for the 14 test holes – the par 4s and par 5s, I shot 68 and 69 – for the round it was an 82 and an 83

  26. F M shouse

    May 19, 2015 at 1:17 pm

    Hit 1 iron off tee one of the new driving irons from calls way or taylormade or old one like vft. Practice long irons for into greens either run up or high shots. Focus on wedges and putting. Move up to white tees have s beer and enjoy. Use driver only to show playing partner that you can blast it into next county if you want too.

    • Philip

      May 19, 2015 at 8:30 pm

      If I cannot get my woods under control I will go all irons by the fall. My irons 4 – PW have been saving my bacon whenever my woods get me into trouble.

  27. Nate

    May 19, 2015 at 11:43 am

    My driver tee ball is usually a high baby fade that carries about 270 and rolls to about 295. Sometimes I can really get a hold of one and hit it about 320. When I miss, it is always way right. My 3 wood carries about 250 and usually has a low boring trajectory which leads to about 20-30 yds of roll. My miss is a pull left. I like to lay back off the tee and go with 3 wood when there is trouble right. I am not any more accurate with my 3 wood than my driver so if I need to hit a fairway, I will got with a 3 iron that I can hit about 230-235 when struck well. I am really lucky because I can hit my irons really high, so hitting a low to mid iron into the green isn’t usually an issue.

  28. Tony

    May 19, 2015 at 11:25 am

    I haven’t carried a driver for roughly 3 years. I’m not a stellar golfer, basically a straight bogey guy, but my #1 problem has always been getting off the box in one piece.

    My 3 wood (2008 Cleveland Launcher) is my spirit animal. When it’s on I hit it like a dream. Despite my handicap, I’m a long hitter (being 6’4 helps), so not having a driver doesn’t really hurt me terribly much. For some reason, the larger clubhead triggers something in my brain and makes me incapable of hitting it.

    I guess it really depends on the player at the end of the day. I have friends who score worse than me but their driver is the only club they hit consistently well. I’m the opposite.

  29. Leon

    May 19, 2015 at 11:24 am

    I got an easy solution: cut your driver shaft to 43″ instead of its current 45″-46″. Change to a lighter grip or add some weights on the head to bring the swing weight back to your preference. Now you have a big stick with the same length of a 3 wood but offers lower loft, tons of more forgiveness, higher COR (titanium face vs steel face) = longer distance, and what else? Confidence!

    Unless you can manage the 3 wood to reach the par 5 in 2, otherwise, replace it with an additional wedge or something that helps your short game.

  30. TR1PTIK

    May 19, 2015 at 10:49 am

    There are certain holes on my local muni where I need to bench the driver unless I want to flirt with OB and I typically hit my 3-wood between 240-250 off the tee so it’s a good option for me on a lot of the short par 4’s in my area. I’ve also knocked my 21* hybrid as much as 235 off the turf and hit a 270+ tee shot with it yesterday (thanks to a 10mph tailwind). Needless to say, I’m not lacking for distance if I use something other than driver – I just really like to hit it because of the potential for even more yardage.

  31. Carlos Danger

    May 19, 2015 at 10:32 am

    Stopped carrying a 3 wood about a month ago for a number of reasons:
    1. Picked up a 19 SLDR and it goes really far. I can get it out there to 260 off the tee. Which at my home course (and pretty much any course) is plenty far.
    2. I play a fade with my driver and if I miss I miss soft right. Rarely miss left. I play a draw with all my other clubs and if I miss with a Fwy/hybrid it goes left. If I miss with a 3W it goes WAY left.
    3. I rarely hit a 3W from the fairway…and if I do I can count on my hand the successful shots I have hit with it. Why risk a bad shot to hit it 265-70 (3W) when I know I can hit a safe 240 shot with a hybrid?

    So… I took the 3w out and added a driving iron that gives me a nice 230ish low ball flight. Loving the setup so far. However…I LOVE 3 Woods so its really hard not to put one in the bag. I have 3 or 4 sweet 3w setups sitting here but hopefully I can stay strong and stick to the setup that is working for me.

    In closing, I would say that if you hit hybrids well, I would test out a lower lofted hybrid (16-17) and see what kind of results you get. If your finding the fariway more often…maybe thats ht move for you.

  32. B

    May 19, 2015 at 10:15 am

    If driver is going to leave me with more that 70 yards but less than 115 then I will opt for 3 wood. Would rather have a full pitching wedge than a partial lob or sand wedge into the green.
    If I want to hit a draw that flies high and stops quickly I will opt for 3 wood. If I feel that hitting a great drive on a par 5 will still leave me with a risky long iron or hybrid, then I will take 3 wood or the hybrid on the par 5 tee and take my 3rd from 130-160 yards.

    There are a few other special situations that would make me go in that direction but I cant think of them right now.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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