Opinion & Analysis

How has Hoylake changed and who serves to benefit?

Published

10 years ago

Jul 16, 2014

The power of Tiger Woods appears to, at times, blanket all blemishes it encounters.

If you are looking for proof, click back eight years when Royal Liverpool, hosting its first Open Championship in 39 years, re-emerged dry, browned out, prone to powdery explosions following fairway strikes and a more convincing impersonation of a racetrack than a golf course.

One may have hoped that the purple flower bombs dropped on the final green that Sunday added a distinctive hue to the colorless layout, but the sizable remnants instead painted the course as an abandoned lot further tainted by loosely organized graffiti.

Yet, Woods’ merciless four-day assault on Hoylake became the main story for the week. The compelling narrative of golf’s dominant figure ironing the course into submission for an 11th major title covered up the damaging look of the layout brought on by unseasonably hot and dry weather. As Woods cried into caddy Steve Williams’ arms, no media were prepared to type up a scathing review of a course that was so baked out and such a fire hazard that spectator smoking was banned and the fire department was on hand throughout the event.

It’s 2014 now though, and Tiger’s fortunes have changed drastically in eight years—to the point that any hope he dominates the headlines this week with his play should be deemed quite unlikely.

But Royal Liverpool doesn’t need saving this time.

The course, affectionately known as Hoylake for the town it sits in, is almost unrecognizable from its 2006 incarnation. Sure, it only stands 54 yards longer, but the grass is lush and green, the balls aren’t running on the ground like…well this, and the rough has transformed from afterthought into bona fide hazard.

If you’re looking at the blueprint of how to play Hoylake from 2006, you might want to update a few things. These key alterations mean that players must be aware of how new factors change the strategy in attacking this course.

What exactly do these alterations mean for which parts of the game? We have a few thoughts here, including the players these factors favor at the end.

The Softer Conditions

Besides Tiger’s chances, the massive leveling down of the course’s firmness will be the prime story heading into the championship, and it already kind of is.

If it wasn’t enough for Rory McIlroy to be a media goldmine in terms of drama—significantly down campaign in 2013, lawsuit against his former agent, breakup of engagement with tennis star Caroline Wozniaki and winning days later—he gave the assembled press an expert rundown of what to expect at Hoylake.

As McIlroy pointed out, the biggest difference he noticed from 2006 (when he watched it on television with his parents), is the color of the course and what that means for the speed on the ground. With Hoylake’s lush and green look, balls are stopping almost immediately on fairways and greens, a stark contrast to what occurred in 2006.

These comments came 10 days before the championship’s start and McIlroy was quick to note that the course is likely being protected right now and should be significantly firmer and faster once tournament play starts.

But let’s be clear, we aren’t getting anything on the levels of 2006. Even as one of the few longest drivers in the game at the time, Tiger Woods and his 291-yard average off the tee hitting mostly irons and just one driver is absurd. For good measure, Chad Campbell hit a three-iron 330 yards during one practice round that week.

With the reduced firmness the course plays longer, something that usually falls into the hands of the bigger hitters. But the opposite should be true this week.

Hoylake simply isn’t a long golf course. It will stand at 7,350 yards for the Open Championship, compared to Augusta National’s 7,435 yards and Pinehurst No. 2’s max of 7,562. And these distances aren’t exactly analogous, as Hoylake remains significantly firmer than either of theose layouts.

The course’s four par-fives are reachable by all hitters in dry or wet conditions, so don’t expect softer fairways to offer the long bombers a sizable advantage here.

Instead, a less bouncy short grass forces the bigger hitters to move away a degree from the near-certain safety that long irons provide into the fading accuracy of fairway woods and drivers.

Of course there will certainly be plenty of irons on the driving ground this week, but the one-driver-every-72-holes strategy simply will not fly like it did eight years ago.

This little affects the Luke Donalds of the world, but the Bubba Watsons and Dustin Johnsons cannot hide behind their long irons quite as much as they could have last time around at Hoylake. They must pump out significantly more woods and drivers, and however confident they feel with those clubs, the bigger sticks don’t offer the same fairway confirmation as irons.

The short hitters, then, gain a bit more with a greener golf course.

All of this is assuming that the wind is not fierce and the forecast points a mild breeze. Whatever the case, the softer conditions aid in significantly reducing the long hitter’s advantage.

Rough around the Fairways

There’s no question what the biggest hazard is when you miss the fairway at Hoylake: the pot bunkers. The fear those virtually-guaranteed one-stroke hazards engender lead Woods to adopt his now famous strategy off the tee in 2006.

Those sandy caves of doom remain eight years later, but they are no longer Hoylake’s (largely) sole defense off the tee.

One of this biggest casualties of the heat wave the last time the Open came around these parts was the rough on the Hoylake layout. The lack of proper watering from Mother Nature allowed the thick grass to whither into a nearly non-existent nuisance for championship week.

Without the freak weather though, the rough has returned in 2014 and it appears to be some of the most luscious grass these pros have faced all year—er, or at least since Congressional two weeks ago.

McIlroy’s take on the tall grass was pretty interesting, as he cited the stuff as patchy and overall quite penalizing. You’re going to get very few chances to sky irons from the rough and land the ball softly on the green. Most of the lies, it seems, will allow you to advance it to the green, but keeping it on the dance floor is the big challenge. And good luck if you get it in one of those bad patches, where chipping out is really the only option.

This second line of defense off the tee has an obvious effect; driving accuracy will be even more of a premium at Hoylake than in 2006.

Aside from its tee boxes, there was very little green to be seen at Hoylake in 2006.

Keeping it in the fairway was already of paramount importance on this layout eight years ago, so the value of the short grass is at an astronomical level now. You could at least afford to be inaccurate if it meant hitting it in the rough back in the day of Tiger’s triumph.

That’s no longer true, although finding the rough remains preferable to a trip to the pot bunkers.

The softer and slower conditions necessitate more aggression off the tee, but if your longer clubs are wild here, you might want to lay back on drives, no matter how much it handicaps you.

The combination of uncompromising bunkers and tough and unpredictable rough (not to mention gorse as well) offers too much in terms of potential lost strokes for any player to hit 6 of 14 fairways and come off the course with a solid score.

Iron play will be quite important at Hoylake still, but as these two points illustrate, driving takes center stage for a player who has eyes for the Claret Jug.

Shots Around the Green

I think we can all admit that the average Open Championship set up minimizes the role of the flatstick. Hoylake is no different with its slow and mostly flat surfaces.

Yet, in this sport, putting and short game tend to get lumped together and that is a short-sighted move. This tendency leads people to predict Open favorites based on ball-striking prowess, wholly ignoring what the golfer offers (or doesn’t) from around the green and in.

That is a blatantly bad move. Much is said about the creativity links golf induces in shot making from tee-to-green, but the same occurs for strokes only a few yards off the putting surface.

Players can commit to all types of shots close to the green: bump-and-run, chip, pitch, flop or even a putt. There is a great existence of imagination that some tend to gloss over here and by doing so they outright miss the fact that the short game plays a massive roles in an Open’s outcome.

Hoylake was no different in this regard in 2006, and if you have any questions about that, I refer you to my man, Jim Furyk.

There is an added element this time though.

The being-talked-about rough is not singular to the fairways. Bunkers and run-offs were the real defenses around the green the previous time at Hoylake, and now we can add thick rough to this equation.

Once again, we turn to McIlroy, who referenced holes Nos. 12-to-14 containing heavy rough guarding the putting surfaces and potentially bringing nightmares to those less inclined in that area of the game.

And that’s not all. The toughest greenside rough might actually belong to No. 16, and, as McIlroy also alluded to, there are certain surfaces where missing on a specific side can be deadly. The places he was likely referencing were the thin sliver of rough before out of bounds right of No. 3 green, the thick patch of grass long and left on No. 7 and the nasty stuff short and left with the bunkers on No. 17.

With all of these dangers areas providing headaches with truly juicy rough this week, the underrated short game element becomes more magnified at this Open.

The thicker rough at Hoylake 2014 means more recognition for the short game, and it’s about time it got some.

The Players Who Benefit

As these changes have such sizable effects on certain parts of the game, some players gain significant good vibes.

The differences between 2006 and 2014 clearly aid players who register in the short-to-medium section on the driving-distance scale, those who are quite accurate off the tee and the competitors who possess a magic touch around the greens. Those who qualify significantly for two of these three factors, or all three, stand the most to profit off these changes.

Perusing through the field, the names that stick out on this end are, in no particular order: Jason Dufner, Ian Poulter, Chris Stroud, Matteo Manassero, Webb Simpson, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Luke Donald and Brendon Todd.

All eight of these players fit the criteria above, some in different ways than others.

Dufner and Todd are the only two on the list who absolutely nail all three factors. Dufner is solidly in the middle pack of players for driving distance, as he is a bit below average overall in that category, has one of the best combinations of driving accuracy and precision on Tour and is a great short game player.

No, seriously. As poor a putter Dufner can be at times, especially inside five feet, he’s very much capable around the greens. In the PGA Tour’s Proximity to Hole (Around the Green) statistic—a much better indicator of short game success than scrambling, which is just as much about putting as off the green work—Dufner is top 25 three of the last four years, including first in the category in 2012.

Todd is decidedly a short hitter with high-end driving accuracy and precision numbers (35th in accuracy and 15th in distance from edge of the fairway). He’s also currently top 30 in Proximity to Hole (ARG).

No players will be better suited for Hoylake’s transformation as these two, but the others on this list will still see a great net plus.

Stroud and Simpson are just moderately accurate and precise drivers, but both prove mighty skilled around the greens. Simpson’s finishes in Proximity to Hole (ARG) from 2012 to 2014 are: T7, T38, T30, and Stroud’s are T10, T16, 8. The duo is is below average in driving distance, sticking them firmly in two of three categories.

The same goes for Poulter, Donald and Manassero. They possess the same traits here as Stroud and Simpson except that all three are exceptionally short drivers. The short game prowess is real though, as Donald has placed top-five in the Proximity metric three of the last five years with Poulter not far behind at four top-15 placements in six years. Manassero doesn’t have this data because he’s a European Tour man, but his reputation as the heir apparent to Seve Ballesteros should quell all doubts here.

The final one of the eight players most likely to take advantage of Hoylake’s changes doesn’t fit in with the rest.

That’s a pretty apt deal for Jimenez, who has been immortalized for his one-of-a-kind personality. (And we can’t forget this.) We don’t have full data on Jimenez due to his European Tour affiliation, but the limited metrics there show him to be both a very short and highly accurate driver.

Like many of the others here, that puts him in line to be a significant beneficiary of two of these three changes. As for his short game, he’s generally considered a solid player from that area, even if there is no objective data to back it up (or disprove it).

To be clear, this is not a short list of favorites. What we have here are the eight candidates whose games most directly benefit from Hoylake’s new look in its eight-year downtime since its last Open.

Maybe one wins, maybe not.

In any case, it would be unwise to use the results of the 2006 Open to determine this week’s standings. It’s been nearly a decade and the course is entirely different.

And even if Hoylake is still criticized for its bland views, at least the singed property that met us in 2006 is a thing of the past.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

14 hours ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

7 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

Published

7 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Brendan Ryan

In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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