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The year-long quest to fix my swing at GolfTEC

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If golf instructional materials were drugs, call me Tony Montana. I wish I wasn’t such an addict, but it’s too late. I’ve read just about every instructional there is, watched countless YouTube videos and tune in to the Golf Fix regularly. Throughout this fascinating, but tortuous and often trippy journey, I’ve observed two basic constants:

  1. Ben Hogan’s Five Lessons is largely viewed as the Holy Book on golf instruction.
  2. No one agrees with one another.

In fact, I think golf instruction is probably the most complex, highly debated, nonsensical moving target in all of sports training; a subject that is not only mired in an endless black hole of tips, triggers and tricks, but features such opposite opinions on seemingly basic principles that the result of one’s glance into the kooky kaleidoscope of its instructional labyrinth is more likely to yield finished products more akin to Jack Torrance than Jack Nicklaus.

jackRead the books or watch the thousands of YouTube videos yourself, and you’ll see what I mean. The contradictions that exist within basic aspects of the golf swing are so maddening that even the most shameless of flip-flopping presidential candidates would likely cry uncle if forced to offer a harmonious explanation. Swing the club head or the handle? Do the hips lead the downswing or the hands and arms? On errant shots, is it better to keep a positive attitude or act out psychotic fantasies of bludgeoning your golf bag to death and stuffing its decrepit remains into the nearest trash can? For what it’s worth, I can see the latter being a great stress reliever.

In the spring of 2014, I made the foolish attempt to self medicate a swing flaw which, as I now know, has been a more challenging obstacle to overcome than my fraternity hell week. A premature extension of my wrists was occurring prior to impact and producing the hallmark of every doomed amateur: the dreaded flipped left wrist/chicken wing at and after contact. Try as hard as I might, I could not rid myself of this grotesque post impact deformity, despite my clear awareness of the issue. I knew the fault, but literally could not fix it. It was as if my brain was tapping my hands on the shoulder, evading detection, and pulling my hands’ pants down. And the advice I would get from fellow playing partners — my personal favorite, “you’re not making a golf swing, you know?” — was not helping matters either.

The months that followed were a mixture of mystery and misery. The “flippy” release was now in my head. One-hundred-yard pitch shots became a breeding ground for blooper-reel content. Drives were too often finding the wrong fairway, subjecting me to perplexed glares from different foursomes, even occasionally obligating me to explain the reason for wayward tee ball. For what it’s worth, I have found that an exasperated, “Rough night last night,” provides the best way to diffuse of this embarrassing situation.

In July of that year, my friend took me to his member guest, and we proceeded to finish DEAD LAST in the entire event, causing us to be the brunt of countless jokes and even some match fixing accusations from the affected parties in our flight. Thankfully, the bartenders made that weekend a little less painful.

This was no way to live. I solicited opinions from a variety of sources: friends, online articles, psychology journals. Experimenting with psychedelic drugs was considered. One of my friends had suggested I go to GolfTEC. “GolfTEC?” I thought. Sure, I had seen the (overly simplistic, cheesy) advertisements, but my legal training made me skeptical. Figuring I had nothing to lose, I went. And I’m glad I did.

I walked into GolfTec for a swing evaluation in October of 2014 with Wayne Sciscio, a friendly, straight-talking Jersey-Italian who runs the East Hanover, New Jersey, GolfTEC branch. He asked me about my long-term goals, my current misses and overall thoughts on the swing. He then hooked me into a vest of sorts (which measured my hip and shoulder rotation at various points in the swing vs. tour averages) as we took some initial cuts. Wayne explained the features of each GolfTEC hitting bay, which includes a down-the-line and face-on camera view, and the ability to immediately replay each swing in slow motion. There was also a launch monitor to provide us with all of the helpful data (swing path, launch angle, etc.), as well as an accompanying flat screen which simulated my ball flight (essential for any indoor training, really).

flatscreenThe initial consultation uncovered two major flaws: First, I was burying my right elbow deep behind my body on the backswing, thus necessitating a “throw” of the club head during the downswing to get the club “unstuck” and, most importantly, that my brain’s idea of impact needed serious rewiring. For about 20 years, my “squaring mechanism” for the golf club, like most amateurs, was to flip/throw the club head past the hands, as opposed to using lag, a proper pivot, and a descending blow at impact.

“I want you to imagine that the top line [of the club head] beats the leading edge through impact,” Wayne said.

I’d never heard impact expressed that way. Wayne even set up an imaginary finish line a few inches beyond impact, in which the top line of the golf club was to finish ahead of the leading edge. For anyone struggling with impact, I urge you to stop reading this article right now and try this exact move.

range

2014 (left) vs. 2015 swing position at the top

The entire look of my swing was different. Instinctively, I engaged my core, held the angle of my wrists, and kept the club more in front of me. We spent the last third of the swing consultation doing no-ball, slow-motion swings to reinforce this thought. It was necessary to, as Wayne put it, “create new neural pathways” for my brain to understand correct impact conditions. Side-by-side, before-and-after shots showed an immediate difference. But after my lesson, with Wayne not there to restrain my unbridled stupidity, full speed shots featured that same hideous flip through impact. Still, upon a week’s worth of reflection, I signed up for a 10-lesson package with a 3-month practice pass. Wayne was optimistic that, eventually, I’d realize some noticeable success.

Wayne

Wayne makes some swing observations, and gleefully questions whether my suede bucks are suitable lesson footwear.

It’s worth taking a moment to acknowledge the dueling cameras I referenced before — undoubtedly one of Golftec’s strong points — and how they allow you to watch your swing immediately after its completion. As someone who uses the V1 App on my iPhone to frequently check my swing, GolfTEC’s video apparatus makes using my smartphone seem like dial up internet. There is no comparison. I could probably take, and watch, about 10 swings in the time it would take me to analyze one swing on my iPhone. And, until I land on the winning end of a plaintiff’s class action lawsuit and install my own personal indoor golf simulator, the GolfTEC set up is more than fine for now. It’s great, actually.

screen

The green buttons allow golfers to watch each swing in slow motion, rewind, and watch again at GolfTec.

For the next several weeks, Wayne put me to work. One week, he’d reach into his tub of swing noodles or gadgets to assist him in making his point, whereas other times, he’d merely express ideas, suggest imaginary targets and reinforce the critical importance of no-ball, slow-motion training. We’d then analyze each swing on Wayne’s nearby computer, and talk about the differences between the early- and late-lessons swings. It was almost like my own version of the Golf Fix or School of Golf, but instead of Holly Saunders and Martin Hall, it featured two Italian dudes from Jersey talking about why the %$#^ I couldn’t achieve proper impact conditions.

A few hours after each lesson, I could watch my video highlights on my GolfTEC personal web page, a helpful feature in keeping a sense of continuity between GolfTEC visits. I could even book follow-up lessons on my iPhone through GolfTEC’s mobile app. Tough to beat.

I now know that the various golf packages offered at GolfTEC, which I initially figured to be a scam, are the only way to go. Golf, at least to me, is really, really hard. If you’re trying to make swing changes, it takes total dedication and appreciation of the difficult journey ahead. What feels right is likely wrong, and what feels wrong is likely right. I recall asking Wayne to recommend to me the best golf instructional to supplement my training, but his answer was a bit different than what I expected. He explained to me that the process of learning new positions and addressing swing flaws is rarely expressed or taught — certainly not in any of the famous swing manuals that we’ve all read — and that what I would learn most from my GolfTEC experience was how to train correctly.

And this, to borrow a cryptic Hogan term, is the “secret” of GolfTEC. It exposes the actual culprit in why we cannot improve at golf: our very own brain. Yes, that same alleged “super computer” that once assured you that streaking the quad wouldn’t attract campus security attention or, more appropriately, convinces you that you can automatically incorporate Sergio Garcia’s shaft lean into your weekend game without any practice whatsoever, is the main governor in your swing’s inability to break through to new heights.

For my specific impact ailments, the difference in what I was feeling versus what was actually showing up on GolfTEC’s cameras was, to be honest, nothing short of mind blowing. I personally had to feel like my golf club was in a state of free-fall for what seemed like an hour before I could actually see any real lag and shaft lean on video. New leaks would also spring up due to these changes, and I occasionally had to use lessons to address unforeseen setbacks. With each lesson, Wayne calmly prescribed a cure and never once seemed to share my sense of panic or despair; even as a couple of months had gone by with inconsistent results. Conversely, Wayne kept on preaching proper practice (again stressing the importance of slow swing or no ball training) and patience (not to mention all of the hands-on instruction, drills, and side-by-side comparisons with tour pros). If I had tried to make these changes by swinging 100 percent during each practice session or lesson, I would have never progressed.

shaft lean

My “flippy” release (top photo, circa October 2014). By March 2015 I’d improved it significantly.

Then, one day in the early spring of 2015, the things that I had been working on started to feel familiar; almost natural. Once foreign motor patterns were more instinctual. On the cameras at GolfTEC, I giggled with childlike wonderment as I witnessed my newly grooved strike in which my arms were fully extended after impact on full swings. On the course, I began taking proper divots, with a penetrating ball flight and a sweet crack that hadn’t been there previously. With my driver, I began hitting a hard push draw by employing a slightly bowed left wrist through impact to stabilize the club face and minimize my natural tendency to flip.

driver

My swing in 2014 (left) and in 2015 (right). Note the slightly bowed wrist, rotated hips and better face control in 2015.

I was then able to apply these newly formed habits toward meaningful golf. Later that year, my friend and I won our flight this time in his member guest, and in the fall, I went on to capture my club’s A-Flight title. This year, I hope to make further progress and qualify for my club championship. My golf IQ has also increased. At GolfTEC, you’ll learn about (and witness the effects of) concepts like gear effect, how to properly diagnose missed shots, and (most importantly for me) why occasional episodes of the shanks creep in to your game and how to immediately fix them. By the way, there is nothing quite as disgusting and motivating as watching in slow motion what happens to your club face, post-shank.

Playing with my weekend group, I now laugh at the various forms of irrelevant unsolicited swing advice being tossed around. You’re not keeping your head down or you need to swing in a barrel are just a few of the nonsensical, know-it-all bits of blabber you may hear from the latest Butch-Harmon-of the-moment mid-handicapper. Now, when that same blowhard tries to rationalize your latest pure draw due to you swinging out to the target, you can politely counter: “Actually, my path at impact was right of the target with a club face that essentially bisected the target line and my swing path, thus putting draw spin on the ball. I even caught the ball a little off-center, toward the toe, thus producing a gear effect impact condition which aided the draw.”

Nuff said.

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Lawyer, Bachelor and Golf Nut. John also writes for his and his sister's Italian culinary and lifestyle blog at www.johnandelana.com, maintains an honest GHIN handicap, and is from New Jersey; all of which he is proud of.

55 Comments

55 Comments

  1. MattMcW

    Jun 8, 2016 at 4:33 pm

    For all of those folks who are leery of GolfTec, I am living proof that if you put in the work, you can get the results. I started with GolfTec 3 years ago with an index of 6.9 and my June 1st revised index is 3.5. It hasn’t been easy and I will echo John’s sentiments about being able to actually see what you think you’re doing as opposed to what you actually are doing. To be honest, I’m not anywhere near where I actually want to go, but I have seen a change in the shape/path of my swing, my release pattern, the quality of my strike and the shape of my ball flight. I’ve gone from a classic come over the top pull slice that was caused by an over active upper body at the top, which produced shots high in the air with a lot of spin and great for hitting lots of fairways, but rarely did tee shots get any roll out. Now, I’m seeing shots come off the club with a more penetrating right to left shape to them.

    As for the whole “Stack and Tilt” commenter, GolfTec talks about body positions that all the pros get into during their swings but doesn’t force you into those positions because everyone’s body moves differently.

    Matt McWilliams- I go to the GolfTec in Tysons Corner, VA

  2. Wayne Morris

    Jun 5, 2016 at 11:47 pm

    In my opinion the fact that you claimed to be a 13.6 handicapper prior to starting this golftec experience but looking at those before pictures and those horrible positions makes me scratch my head. Truly your new after positions and knowledge sounds like a more avid golfer, and its more believable that you are a 8 to 10 handicap now not a 5-6. I do agree that high speed video helps pick the flaws to work on, where on the range its always a guess. But golftec does force feed you a certain style which i think is not always the right way for everyone. Belive it or not, with your obvious dedication, and hunger to get better, any instruction would have improved your game but trust me you would have gotten better with a PGA pro than golftec

    • John Iaciofano

      Jun 6, 2016 at 2:10 pm

      Hmm…I am not sure where I claimed I was a 13.6 handicapper, nor did I claim I am a 5. Also, many PGA Pros are also Golftec Pros. In my case, my instructor was a Class A PGA Pro.

  3. JJJ

    Jun 4, 2016 at 5:02 pm

    Started up with GolfTEC last July, got a good pro. Little bit lazy with the lessons, usually only 1 or two a month. Was a 17.1 back then, 12.4 now and trending down. The big thing for me is the immediate visual feedback, frame by frame, both in the lessons and in the video practice. What I think I’m doing is so often far from is actually happening. The visual reinforcement of what I’m trying to achieve has been extremely helpful.

  4. Bogeypro

    Jun 3, 2016 at 10:26 pm

    Congrats on the better play, but this really sounds like a plug for a sponsor.

  5. Truth

    Jun 3, 2016 at 6:19 pm

    Golftec is garabge. A computer can’t teach you how to feel or how to “swing your swing” as Arnold Palmer put it.

  6. [email protected]

    Jun 2, 2016 at 11:07 am

    Avid or serious golfer never go to GolfTec for any fix of their swing. Most of the pros there are “rookies” who just started their teaching career with limited experiences. They are good for beginners who is trying to get a glimpse of the golf and having a very “programmable” swing.

    If you already have a good taste of the golf swing but would like to get better, find some experienced instructors hosted in nearby golf courses or dedicated learning schools (teaching centers, non-franchised). They normally charge more for a lesson ($100-$250 one hour lesson depends on who you are working with) but deliver more effective fixes that you can see the results immediately when you walk off the lesson. The guys who can survive the teaching competition and root themselves on a golf course normally have something to show around.

    I worked with one instructor for four lessons ($150 per lesson, I visited him once a month) and brought down my scores from mid 90s to low 80s (or even mid 70s) in a few months. But you need to keep educating yourself and keep practicing / experimenting during the learning process. By gluing all the swing facts together, you will find a swing that suits you and your game.

    • John Iaciofano

      Jun 3, 2016 at 2:26 pm

      It all depends on the Golftec. The pro that taught me there is a class A PGA professional and I think has given close to 30k lessons. Not exactly a “rookie.”

  7. Jim

    Jun 2, 2016 at 8:35 am

    One of the best articles about instruction—as opposed to instructional articles—I have read. I particularly liked your emphasis on slow swing/no ball training. If you can’t get into the proper positions in slow motion, you don’t understand what they are and you will never achieve them at full speed. I went to a winter golf school this year and had similar swing faults as you, especially flipping at the ball and contacting the turf before hitting the ball. My instructors are advocates of slow swing/no ball training and it wasn’t until I got serious about this aspect that I saw real improvement. And I think this is true regardless of the system or method of instruction.

  8. Philip

    Jun 1, 2016 at 11:12 pm

    Checked out the GolfTec site. Interesting, but it has two issues for me. The first is if the lessons are mainly on fake grass – as I’ve found it can hide too many flaws. Of course, if your swing is good then you can hit off of anything, but that is not their larger market. The second is the use of video – I’ve never found it to be helpful in understanding my swing. It is interesting and useful to understand other swings from a general point of view, but I need to visualize my swing internally from my perspective, and video is external from a different point of view, and other peoples swings is irrelevant to me as I am not them. My best success has been with a golf pro on real grass reviewing my fundamentals to make sure they haven’t gone adrift. The more I understand how setup and address affects a swing by practicing in slow motion, as well as at regular speeds, the better I am able to control the club face and distance.

    • John

      Jun 10, 2016 at 10:35 am

      Philip – I’m sure everyone is different; perhaps video is not your thing and you could be right. I must say however, that in my case, I couldn’t have possibly made progress without video. It’s necessary for me to see my swing faults and be able to see what it feels like when I’m trying to correct it.

  9. Brian

    Jun 1, 2016 at 6:57 pm

    I have to agree with John. I worked with GolfTec for about 18 motnhs. I started as a 12 and went to an 8. Obviously, we all learn differently, but I will not go back to taking lessons on range.

  10. Johnny Muscletown

    Jun 1, 2016 at 6:38 pm

    GolfTec seems to be very polarizing, especially by the armchair pros out there. I had a great experience at GT for over a year. I quit because I had to buy an engagement ring. I took a few other lessons here and there that were not in Golftec from various pros that were very good as well. Bottom line is to find a good teacher and actually do what they say.

  11. Bob

    Jun 1, 2016 at 3:06 pm

    John, how much did GolfTec pay you? I’ve heard more horror stories then good things about GolfTec. The picture you posted does confirm one thing, Golf Tec obviously is teaching the Stack & Tilt. Looking at your before and after picture gives me shivers down my back just as reading about the Stack & Tilt golf swing gives me nightmares at night. Sorry John, but this post of your reeks of “Paid for by” Personally I would not waste my time or money on GolfTec. Sorry John, just don’t buy it.

    • John Iaciofano

      Jun 1, 2016 at 4:20 pm

      Bob – Actually, I did this after my Golftec experience, which I paid for personally. Golftec is likely not teaching the stack and tilt; I personally like to have a bit of a forward move to assist me with proper impact.

      • Bob

        Jun 1, 2016 at 4:57 pm

        John, look at the picture you posted of your after back swing. “Stack & Tilt”

        And yes from what I have been told “Stack & Tilt” is the company teaching policy.

        John like it or not you are now a Stack & Tilter. Scary stuff 🙁

        • John Iaciofano

          Jun 2, 2016 at 10:15 am

          Ha. Never once was Stack and Tilt taught during my golftec experience. Although I would not mind swinging like this! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im5UAZHeoDc

          • Bob

            Jun 2, 2016 at 10:37 am

            Maybe that’s what they told you but the reality is you are now a Stack and Tilter John. Have fun.
            And as for me, I have better things to spend my money on rather then making the CEO of Golf Tec richer.

            • John Iaciofano

              Jun 2, 2016 at 11:38 am

              I will have fun. Golf has never been more fun. Thank you, Bob.

  12. larrybud

    Jun 1, 2016 at 12:48 pm

    So what’s the bottom line? What’s your GHIN before and after? It’s all about scoring.

    • John Iaciofano

      Jun 1, 2016 at 12:50 pm

      larry I would say i was about a 9-12 and now hover between a 6-8.

      • Ric

        Jun 1, 2016 at 12:57 pm

        The tip you gave” Wayne even set up an imaginary finish line a few inches beyond impact, in which the top line of the golf club was to finish ahead of the leading edge” sounds like what happens when the clubhead overtakes the handle. Am I missing something?

        • John Iaciofano

          Jun 1, 2016 at 1:57 pm

          Ric – it’s the opposite actually. If you have your club’s “top line” (the top of the club) beat the “leading edge” (the bottom of the club) your handle would overtake the clubhead.

      • larrybud

        Jun 2, 2016 at 7:42 am

        You don’t have any hard numbers?

        • John Iaciofano

          Jun 2, 2016 at 11:36 am

          Rarely is my handicap ever fixed or hard; it moves around. At the end of last year my index was a 6.9; which is the lowest it has ever been by at least 1-2 strokes.

  13. Peter d

    Jun 1, 2016 at 12:43 pm

    I did 2 years of golf tec, plus countless other lessons. I see gt as a system of instruction rather than instruction itself, but that system addresses a key fault of “normal” lessons: frequency and long-horizon. I think most people go to lessons to “get fixed” and do not usually keep up with lessons unless they self identify a problem. The gt system addresses this by regular, consistent lessons over an extended period of time, past the initial “fix”.

    That said you still need a solid instructor to actually do the lessons!

  14. cody

    Jun 1, 2016 at 12:40 pm

    I think all instruction is as good as the instructor. Golftec included. All the gadgets and gizmos in the world will not make up for quality instruction. I am sure, that golftec locations, just like golf courses are individual and vary in the “pros” ability and understanding to teach the swing. I dont think that golftec is good or bad. I am glad they exist to try to help players get better, and don’t begrudge them trying to make a dollar at the same time. I say if you are looking for instruction, give them a pass and see if it fits. if not move on.

  15. KangarooLefty

    Jun 1, 2016 at 12:21 pm

    John,

    If you mentioned it in the article – I missed it. Do you actually score better?

    While I don’t agree with the masses on the issue of GolfTec: that it is a rip-off/scam/waste; and, that you will never get better. I do believe that fixing an aspect of your swing may not always lead to better results on the course. I know, that statement seems counter-intuitive, but hear me out.

    Most single digit handicappers have either one or both of these parts of their game significantly better than higher digit handicappers: they hit the ball a lot farther; or, they have better than average course management skills. All single digit handicappers are better at yardages under 100 and chipping/putting. GolfTec does not teach you course management and does not teach you chipping/putting. So, while your swing may be getting better – are your scores?

    To most people – the score at the end of the round is more important than the look of the swing or the flight of the ball. A few years back – when I was really devoting time and energy to the sport and had achieved a fairly modest handicap of 4 – I went to GolfTec and had a few lessons. If I had stuck with the entire package maybe my results would have been different, but I immediately felt like my swing wasn’t good enough. I was young and spry and could hit the ball a mile, but my shoulder turn wasn’t maximized and during portions of the downswing I was sliding too much. So off to the range I went with the drills and the thoughts in my head and I started to decline.

    My biggest problem with the GolfTec way is that they only use Professional Golfers as the barometer for your swing. Does your hip rotation match that of Phil Mickelson? Does your shoulder rotation match Dustin Johnson? Here – how does your swing look side-by-side to Tiger Woods in his prime? Are you left-handed – here we can mirror any pro you want to see how you compare. Then – they use averages for shoulder rotation, hip rotation, swing plane, etc to compare your 40 year old swing to that of a professional golfer in their prime. Amateurs that are taking GolfTec lessons will not be able to match those numbers – not anatomically and not physiologically. Therefore, what are you really getting?

    MOST of the time a lesson with a PGA instructor on the range, or better yet, on the course will yield more favorable results than GolfTec – and it behooves me that we keep seeing article after article about experiences with GolfTec.

    I will never take away from a person’s positive experience at GolfTec – it is your money and your pipe dream. If you get better I am happy for you.

    If most high handicappers spent more time on the putting green and chipping area they would reap greater rewards than any full-swing lesson will get them.

    • John Iaciofano

      Jun 1, 2016 at 4:08 pm

      Kangaroo – I definitely improved from golftec; I was breaking 80 with regularity due to the lessons, I think. I am down to about a 6-8 index these days whereas before it was more like a 8-13.

      I personally think that the video lessons are incredibly valuable. If I just went to the range with some tips, I would have not improved. That’s how I always did things prior to golftec; but it took my experience at golftec for me to realize that for me to change an inch, it had to feel like a mile. For what I was trying to do – move my swing bottom forward – I couldn’t have done it without video and Wayne’s guidance. The interesting thing was that my experience was not overly technical. We definitely spent time doing side by side comparisons with tour pros, but it was used as more of a benchmark as to what were working on than a teaching point.

      Actually, one of the things that improved the most was my scoring ability from 100 yards and in. By improving my impact conditions (divot after impact) I was really able to get a more surgical with my pitches and even long chips.

      • KangarooLefty

        Jun 1, 2016 at 7:59 pm

        John – thanks for the response. Sorry my comment was not displayed they way I spaced it paragraph wise. Like I mentioned, I am happy that practicing paid off for you (literally!). I think getting from that low double digit handicap spot to single digits is a great milestone to achieve. As a proper lead-in to any before/after comparison: how did your practice schedule/intensity change? You mentioned that you read every book and you watched every youtube video on golf instruction, so there was obviously knowledge of the golf swing before GolfTec. Was the practice as concentrated and numerous before GolfTec? Or, as you learned to like your new swing/results did your practice sessions become more regular or concentrated?

        • John Iaciofano

          Jun 2, 2016 at 10:29 am

          The practice was definitely quite frequent and concentrated, before. I would bang balls at the range; even using my V1 app frequently. It’s actually possible that I practiced less with golftec, although I definitely took advantage my 3-month practice pass.

          I identified the “flip” due to my own recording with the v1 app, but it was a really hard fix and I enlisted Wayne’s help. I would say the WAY I practiced became much different.

  16. JOL

    Jun 1, 2016 at 8:21 am

    I also signed up for a series of lessons at GolfTec and after 2-3 months never got past trying to get into the “PERFECT” backswing position. In hindsight, it was a waste of time and money.

  17. Snoop

    May 31, 2016 at 3:11 pm

    Glad you liked it, but your picture is too perfect for this meme:

    Pays GolfTEC lessons

    Shows up in jeans

    Maybe we should all forget about golf and get some of that lawyer money

    • John Iaciofano

      May 31, 2016 at 3:30 pm

      GT’s cost per lesson is actually pretty reasonable vs. competitors. The way I saw it, I’d probably be paying for 10 lessons anyway in the next couple of years. And the practice pass is nice, too.

  18. Steven

    May 31, 2016 at 3:05 pm

    John,

    Great article. I agree that the system at Golftec is designed for improvement. The constant instruction and video is great. Making swing changes does take time, and Golftec does a good job of showing the process for making changes. That learning is critical to long term success.

    My experience wasn’t as good at Golftec because I had 3 different instructors. I was following a similar improvement plan after a year, but then started having to switch instructors. Like you said, everyone has a different perspective, so I struggled with the switches. I think Golftec is great for accountability, but the right instructor (or instruction) is the most important. A good plan with V1 can have similar results if consistent. It sounds like Wayne is a good instructor, and my guess is he would be good anywhere if the student follows the plan.

    Just my thoughts. I know tons of people have great success with Golftec. Unfortunately, I didn’t have the same luck with the instructor.

    Hope your progress continues and you qualify. That is a great accomplishment.

  19. Jay

    May 31, 2016 at 2:54 pm

    Nice article – I had experience with GT prior to them offering the ball flight simulator. Would imagine thats a big plus to their (already pretty snazzy) technology

  20. ooffa

    May 31, 2016 at 2:33 pm

    I could have fixed you in two minutes for the price of a cocktail at the 19th hole.

  21. John Iaciofano

    May 31, 2016 at 2:20 pm

    Thanks puffy – completely agree with your thoughts. I was very pleased with Wayne’s instruction, and my experience, at Golftec.

  22. Feherty's Large Mouth bASS

    May 31, 2016 at 2:11 pm

    Really? Another advertorial for GolfTEC? Poor kid had tons of lessons to fix a post impact problem where the root cause was 100% in the backswing and transition. Probably took more like 10 minutes to discover that and fix it rather than 10 months and thousands of dollars!

    • John Iaciofano

      May 31, 2016 at 2:33 pm

      100% huh? Feel free to enlighten us; this is an educational piece after all.

  23. PuffyC

    May 31, 2016 at 1:52 pm

    Great write-up, couldn’t agree more. I’ve been working with GolfTec for over a year and the main thing I tell people is that if you’re taking lessons without video, you’re probably wasting your time. What you think your swing is doing is almost 100% never what it is actually doing, and without the cameras you have no idea.

    • Pe

      May 31, 2016 at 3:22 pm

      Video works for some, not for all. Just like any lesson. And some are just not born for physical activity of any kind, let alone any sport. Don’t encourage those people they can play this sport. They can’t.

      • bruce

        Jun 1, 2016 at 1:07 pm

        i think most people can find their way around a par 3 or executive course (they’re ok from 100 yards and in). and even on “real” courses one can always play from the forward tees (they should remove the gender designation). but, yeah, some people (myself included) don’t have what it takes to play from the tips. for me scoring mostly comes down to pitching, chipping, bunkers and putting anyway (and avoiding complete mis-hits on longer shots).

    • larrybud

      Jun 1, 2016 at 12:57 pm

      Depends on how you learn. My wife is all about showing her (like putting her into a certain position) so she can feel that position. Video is nearly useless to her.

      • bruce

        Jun 1, 2016 at 1:12 pm

        for me it’s interesting to see how i’m doing on video but it doesn’t really help me figure out what i’m supposed to “feel” (or think about) during the swing. and if i think too hard about one particular aspect of the swing (like touch your chin to your shoulder on the backswing) it generally kills my tempo and i hit a horrible shot. maybe it’s as much about rhythm, tempo and confidence as anything else (i know i can hit this shot because i’ve done it before). and for me my results on the driving range are pretty much unrelated to how i play (it’s all different when you’re actually playing a course).

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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