Opinion & Analysis
The harsh realities of golf’s mini tours
A casual golf fan who occasionally enjoys watching final round coverage of a PGA Tour event must have a skewed opinion about the lives of professional golfers, namely, that anyone with an oversized staff bag is living the dream. But for every Ian Poulter who owns a fleet of Ferraris and struts around like a movie star, there are plenty of golfers who practically live out of their Ford Fiestas and dream about getting their big break.
Golf outside the highest professional level is a proverbial cutting room floor. For every golfer who eventually plays his way to the big stage, there are thousands who don’t. It’s a harsh reality predetermined by the sheer fact that it takes a high degree of skill, stubbornness and certainly not least of all – luck – to earn a place on the PGA Tour.
The qualification process has remained largely unchanged since the PGA Tour was formalized in the 1960s. The most direct route, Q-School, allowed any golfer, amateur or professional with a handicap index of two or lower, to test their mettle in golf’s version of the Hunger Games. Anyone who didn’t survive Q-School could attempt to play his way onto the Tour by way of Monday qualifiers or sponsor exemptions, both of which are low percentage gambles that very few ever cash in on.
What has changed in the last couple of decades is the ever-expanding number of developmental tours that have raised their banners across the country. Although Ben Hogan isn’t officially credited with starting the first mini tour, the 30-city Hogan Tour, which began in 1990, is probably the most famous. The tour was set up to allow aspiring pros (many of whom were cash-strapped) to drive around from tour stop to tour stop in successive weeks, much like Hogan’s contemporaries had in golf’s yesteryears. Over the years the Hogan Tour (now the Web.com Tour) expanded geographically, upped its prize money and became to the PGA Tour what off-broadway is to aspiring actors.
The NGA Pro Golf Tour, more commonly referred to as the Hooters Tour, predates the Hogan Tour. It was started in 1988 by Rick (T.C.) Jordan who inherited some money from his family’s business in pharmaceuticals and made a lot more of it through real estate and restaurant opportunities. Jordan invested $6 million from his own pocket and ran the tour independently until ceding title sponsorship rights to Hooters of America, Inc. in 1994.
Over the years the Hooters Tour has graduated some notable alumni including major championship winners Bubba Watson, Keegan Bradley, John Daly and Zach Johnson.
Keegan Bradley, a graduate of the NGA Hooters Tour, won the 2011 PGA Championship and is one of the Tour’s best success stories.
And now that the Q-School has been revised to replenish the roster of the Web.com Tour, expect more players to take up a path of apprenticeship that could meander through the Pepsi Tour, over to the Peach State Professional Golf Tour, and everything in-between. With more than 60 tours in operation world-wide, the prevailing wisdom ought to be play hard and pack light.
So You Want To Run A Mini Tour?
Jeff Flees used to manage a mortgage firm in Worthington, Ohio. But his wife’s protracted health concerns led him to reevaluate his career prospects. Nowadays, he’s the president of a three-person operation that runs the nascent Flagship Golf Tour.
“I had a successful career in the mortgage banking industry for 16 years, however in 2011 my wife had two major surgeries, one of which was brain surgery to clip aneurysms she had been living with,” says Flees. “My wife is one of the most incredible, inspirational people you will ever meet or know. I felt it was important to take time off to be with her while she recovered. When the time was right, my passion for golf and experience with people in the industry led my to analyze the developmental tour business and start the Flagship Golf Tour.”
The first scheduled event will be played this summer at The Journey at Pechanga in Temecula, Calif. The single day, 18-hole stroke play championship will feature a $5,000 purse and will benefit a number of charities including the Brain Aneurysm Foundation. The entry fee for professionals is $300 ($200 for amateurs) and unlike many higher profile tours, there is no annual membership fee.
For those of us who have never played golf for a living, taking up membership on a mini tour is a significant expense when combined with standard tournament fees and general travel expenses. Existing tours with deep fields and decent purses can charge $1,000 or more for membership. That will help you get a bona fide member packet, a tour hat and access to practice facilities at host courses. To actually play in a tournament event, you’ll likely drop close to another $1,000. A single season on the NGA Hooters’ 2013 Carolina Series will run a pro golfer a little over $10,000 in fees (depending on whether or not they have pre-existing status on the tour). Sounds almost reasonable until you start factoring things like groceries and gas money, or taking a date out to a dinner and a movie.
By contrast, there’s next to no risk to play a Flagship Golf Tour event and the tour awards prize money to the top 33 percent of the field, which is consistent with the policy maintained by more established entities. The tour does differ significantly from many competitors in that tournament events are spread out nationally and a champion is crowned after 18 holes.
“We decided on the one-day 18-hole tournaments because they make more logistical and financial sense,” says Flees. “The benefit of a one-day, 18-hole event is that we can keep the expenses down and reduce the time commitment for everyone involved in the tournament. We respect what the more established tours are doing. We are not trying to directly compete with them.”
Whether the Flagship Golf Tour finds its niche and succeeds beyond the first couple of seasons is difficult to predict. The term “boom and bust” is often used to describe mini tours that have disappeared after some initial success. Not surprisingly, the pressure to succeed falls squarely on a busy owner’s shoulders. You’re expected to be equally adept at playing the role of savvy business manager and gregarious promoter. Some days call for negotiating contracts with vendors and sponsors. Other days you’ll be rubbing elbows with potential investors or stumping on behalf of your tour around the clock on Twitter.
For many business executives, running a mini tour is a labor of love (not to mention an expensive hobby).
Alex Spanos had a brief run lending his name to one of the preeminent developmental tours on the West Coast before scuttling the business after three years. Spanos was a scratch golfer in his youth and made his fortune in the construction services industry. He is better known for owning a majority stake in the San Diego Chargers football team.
Full field events on the Spanos California Tour featured sizable purses including a $250,000 cash grab called the A.G. Spanos California Open. Local boys Jason Gore, John Merrick and Peter Tomasulo had stints on the tour before moving on to play much bigger venues.
“I have always wanted to be part of a golf tour,” Spanos was quoted as saying. “My goal with this tour is to have it become the biggest and best in this state, if not the country, where young professionals and amateurs get the opportunity to show their talent and ability.”
Even in its final year of operation, the California Tour was arguably still growing. The tour signed Ameriquest Mortgage Company as a presenting sponsor, hired a San Diego area public relations firm to raise brand awareness, increased the number of events to 16 and set aside $2.5 million in available winnings. But they shut the tour down anyway. Perhaps that was the intention all along.
According to executives associated with Spanos, running the tour had become prohibitively expensive. It also didn’t help that a far more expansive developmental tour made a glitzy splash in 2006, promising tournament winnings to rival the PGA Tour.
Backed by the now defunct Greens Worldwide Inc., the U.S. Pro Golf Tour was expected to offer $300,000 for a standard event and as much as $5 million for one of its majors that would be played on a Donald Trump-owed course and broadcast on television by ESPN. There were rumblings about impending doom from the start and the tour folded after the initial season. In the process, the U.S. Pro Golf Tour defrauded hundreds of golfers who forked over thousands of dollars to participate in events that were never going to be staged.
As any professional golfer who has scrambled on the mini tours can tell you, there are plenty of similar misadventures that players have fallen victim to. Most of them are simply too obscure to grab the public’s attention, even within golfing circles. And in some ways, it’s a perverse right of passage.
The (Not So) Charmed Life Of A Professional Golfer
More than likely, you haven’t heard of Andrew Jensen. He’s just another golfer playing on the PGA Tour of Canada who’s had scrapes with success, failure, injuries and heartbreak. But I’m getting ahead of myself.
We pick up his story in March. Jensen has driven down to Florida, as far south from frigid Ottawa as his Pontiac G6 will take him. He intends to spend a month living in the Sarasota area getting into shape for a season that will play out primarily back in Canada. Except that the weather in Florida, in fact for much of the southern United States, isn’t living up to expectations.
Too many mornings in the Sunshine State start off borderline freezing; as for Jensen’s game, it’s not a whole lot better. In his first competitive event of the season, he shoots 2-over and misses the cut. Over the next several weeks his game starts trending in the right direction. He records his best finish on the Florida swing at TPC Prestancia in Sarasota. It’s a limited-field event of 28 participants playing for a purse that barely covers rent for a single-bedroom apartment on Manhattan’s Upper West Side.
Jensen has an opportunity to finish 2-under on the first day, but rinses two balls on the last hole for an ugly double. He plays marginally worse the next day, making three straight bogies on the front nine, carding a 75 and finishing three strokes outside of earning a paycheck.
Three events come and go and all Jensen has to show for it some middling scores. It’s a good blow to one’s wallet (and psyche), but Jensen has developed some thick skin over the years. He’s been playing professionally off and on since 2008. He’s taken time off to heal from injuries and to recover from periodic episodes of depression. And while it may be difficult to spin positives from his Florida swing based on scoring alone, Jensen is grateful to be playing golf regularly again.
“When I was playing injured in 2010 and playing bad . . . the debt was increasing fast,” says Jensen. “Golf was no longer fun, it was work, it was gambling to break even. My passion for the game left me very quickly but I tried to tough it out and keep playing regardless. That mentality bled into two awful seasons on tour and my eventual hanging up the clubs in 2011 to enter into the real world and start working and getting above water financially. Luckily, over time the passion came back.”
Jensen played competitively for the University of Ottawa and qualified to play for the Canadian Tour the year following his graduation in 2007. Although some golfers would have journeyed south to play in more seasonably warm conditions year-round, Jensen preferred to stay closer to home, not all that surprising for a person who habitually found comfort in maintaining rigorous routine.
Unfortunately, there was very little in the way of predictability to his first three seasons on tour. Jensen made the cut just twice in 14 events in 2008, making $870. He earned another $3,100 on the tour in 2010-11 and watched his confidence fade as debts rose.
“When you can solely focus on the routine and the process, good play takes care of itself,” says Jensen. “When you have to figure out a way to pay the bills, it takes away from your routine. Over the years, my play has struggled and consequently my funds have depleted, forcing me into off-season work in Canada over the winters. The routine has to switch to fitness, indoor practice, mental work, and above all a ‘real job.’”
His outlook rapidly declined in 2011. A family physician prescribed an anti-depressant medication that had an unintended side-effect of actually increasing suicidal urgings. Standing over a bathroom sink with a mouth full of anti-depressant pills, Jensen nearly took his life that September. Fortunately he spat the medication out and was weened off the anti-depressant a few weeks later. Through therapy, Jensen came to regard golf as a trigger for his mental issues.
“Every time I played poorly, it just kept getting worse and worse emotionally,” Jensen told the Ottawa Citizen in 2012.
Jensen isn’t the only golfer who has struggled with depression. The LPGA Tour’s Christina Kim was openly forthcoming about her own personal struggles in an interview with Golf Digest. Still, there aren’t many golfers, let alone athletes in general, that are willing to go public. It is habitually accepted that athletes need to maintain an edge over their competition. And nothing blows an athlete’s cover faster than revealing they have fears and doubts.
“The numbers on depression are staggering, it affects far more people than many believe,” says Jensen. “The pressure, isolation and competition in professional golf are massive triggers to get players down on themselves both on and off the course. From my experiences with mental illness it’s a hard road to play golf and keep things silent. The minute I came out with my struggles, the support and solidarity that came from fellow players was great. No one knows the struggles of a mini tour player better than a fellow mini tour player.”
Historically, the various developmental tours have left players to their own devices. Some tours offer discounts on sponsor-provided apparel and equipment, but rarely is sports psychology factored into any of the few membership perks enjoyed on tour. By offering player coaching from the outset, the Flagship Golf Tour is looking to differentiate itself even further from its more established competitors.
“We are working with excellent professionals who can offer our players guidance in these areas,” says Flees. “The players will get initial information and coaching made available to them free of charge, however if they wish to retain these professionals for additional assistance there would be a charge.”
The Flagship Golf Tour has developed a relationship with David Donatucci, a Titelist Performance Institute certified trainer a member of the PGA of America, as well as PGA member Rick Sessinghaus, a proven sports psychologist. It will be interesting to see how many players actually seek out coaching and if it spurs other developmental tours to consider similar service offerings in the future.
As Jensen can tell you from experience, playing on the mini tours is a grind. Reflecting on the past five years as a golf pro, Jensen says, “[The mini tours haven’t] taught me too much about golf itself, apart from the reality that making putts is everything. It’s taught me that I am very determined and driven, easily discouraged at times, but still very motivated. Hard work for five years really hasn’t gotten me too far in this game so I’ve learned I need to work smarter now.”
A Long And Winding Road
Imagine you’re 16 years old, living by yourself in California. Your preternatural golfing abilities land you a future spot on the University of Oklahoma golf team. Your stellar college play gets noticed and you make the Walker Cup team. After three years you leave school early and declare your intentions to turn pro. You receive a sponsor’s exemption into your first PGA Tour event and you finish runner up. A year later you earn tour card in your first go-around at Q-School and ultimately become a multimillionaire before the age of 22.
It’s almost a lock that most golfing careers will not pan out like Anthony Kim’s supercharged ascent to stardom. With any luck, you might be fortunate enough mimic James Hahn, who clawed his way onto the PGA Tour after spending nine years playing on the mini tours and supplementing his income selling ladies shoes at Nordstrom’s.
So if you are a talented golfer, what exactly are your chances?
In an unrelated sport, the NCAA has compiled statistics on the number of high school basketball players who continue to play professionally after graduating from college. Of the roughly 156,000 high school seniors who play basketball, 44 will be drafted into the NBA. Even at less than 1 percent, a basketball player has a better chance of filling one of the 350 or so roster spots in the NBA than a golfer has of sharing a fairway with Phil Mickelson.
Andrew Jensen doesn’t believe that a talent gap is keeping most mini tour players from propelling themselves to the next level.
“I think it has more to do with the off course hurdles than the competition,” says Jensen. “I’ve seen many great players pack it in because of their financial situation, the travel, or the time away from family, just to name a few reasons. I don’t believe players stop because they don’t think they have what it takes.”
There are thousands of golfers playing on the mini tours every year. What happens to the ones that don’t make it?
Perhaps some of them get a taste of success at the higher reaches of golf and regress. Others washout after only a few seasons on the road. Some quit playing and take up teaching while others quit the game entirely.
In spite of what is easily construed as abject failure, any player who has made it as far as the mini tours has an experience with the game that few golfers rarely come in contact with. It may not be the sort of ending that a Hollywood producer would dream up. But as golf announcer Gary Koch famously quipped, it’s better than most.
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We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.
In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.
Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.
Placement Bets:
Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):
I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.
In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.
Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):
Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.
In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).
Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.
Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.
Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.
Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):
The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.
This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.
Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.
Top Nationalities:
Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):
I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.
I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.
This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.
Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):
While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.
He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.
Tournament Head-to-Heads:
Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa
JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).
Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.
Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark
I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.
Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.
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It’s been over nine months since we saw Brian Harman parlay a dominant performance at Royal Liverpool into a claret jug. After another major offseason filled with a feud between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, talks of a merger, and a multitude of questions regarding the future of the game, the golf world is desperate for all of the best players in the world to come together again for a major championship.
We return to Augusta National with excitement at a fever pitch. Scottie Scheffler has separated himself as the best player in the world heading into the Masters. At the moment, the 27-year-old seems to be an unstoppable force. However, questions about Scheffler’s up-and-down putter once again resurfaced as he missed multiple short putts at the Texas Children’s Houston Open including a 5’11” putt to force a playoff with Stephan Jaeger.
Additionally, a handful of the PGA Tour’s top players such as Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Spieth make their way to Augusta National with their current form in question.
Plenty of LIV golfers may be up to the task of conquering Augusta, but with so much time in between the last two majors, it’s not always easy to decipher how their games will stack up against Scheffler and co.
Last year, some important changes were made at Augusta National. The par-5 13th (Azalea) was lengthened by 35 yards and now measures 545 yards. Last year, Azalea played as the toughest of the four par 5s, and players averaged 4.74 for the week, which was down from 4.85 in 2022. However, eagles, birdies and bogeys were all up, so the lengthening achieved less pars, which equals more excitement.
Without further ado, let’s get into the course breakdown and analyze some important statistics for Augusta National.
Augusta National is now a 7,510-yard par-72 with lightning-fast Bentgrass greens. The course’s primary defenses are the contoured greens, swirling crosswinds, the topography of the course, which creates uneven lies and the small landing areas that golfers will need to hit to avoid tight run-off areas around the greens.
Past Winners at the Masters
- 2023: Jon Rahm (-12)
- 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
- 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
- 2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
- 2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
- 2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
- 2017: Sergio Garcia (-9)
- 2016: Danny Willett (-5)
- 2015: Jordan Spieth (-18)
- 2014: Bubba Watson (-8)
- 2013: Adam Scott (-9)
- 2012: Bubba Watson (-10)
- 2011: Charl Schwartzel (-14)
- 2010: Phil Mickelson (-16)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Augusta National
Let’s take a look at the six most important metrics at Augusta National and determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds. This should give us a good starting point for building out a betting card.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach is historically the most important statistic at Augusta National. The sloping, speedy greens and run-off areas create small landing spots that can be difficult to hit.
Last year, Jon Rahm ranked 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Overall, five of the past seven winners at Augusta have ranked in the top 6 in the category. Distance helps, but Augusta National is a second-shot golf course.
Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.30)
- Corey Conners (+0.99)
- Shane Lowry (+0.88)
- Tony Finau (+0.85)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.85)
Course History
More so than any other course on TOUR, familiarity with Augusta National is crucial. Only one player has ever won the Masters on their first try — Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Meanwhile, there are 17 golfers in history who have multiple green jackets.
In most cases, the Masters champion has shown some good form at Augusta in the past. Prior to Scottie Scheffler’s 2022 victory, he finished T19 and T18 in his first two trips to the course. Prior to 2023, Rahm had finished in the top-10 of four of his six starts at The Masters.
Total Strokes Gained: Total at Augusta National in past 36 rounds (per round, minimum eight rounds):
- Will Zalatoris (+2.91)
- Jon Rahm (+2.28)
- Jordan Spieth (+2.22)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.22)
- Dustin Johnson (+2.01)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.00)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1.90)
- Justin Rose (+1.85)
- Rickie Fowler (+1.72)
- Russell Henley (+1.60)
Par 4 Scoring Average
Since plenty of players can reach the par 5s at Augusta in two, par-4 scoring becomes more important. The golfer who separates themselves on the par 4s will be able to gain ground on the field.
Par 4 Scoring Average in past 24 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+3.88)
- Chris Kirk (+3.92)
- Jordan Spieth (+3.93)
- Peter Malnati (+3.93)
- Xander Schauffele (+3.93)
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Golfers with a solid short game tend to fare well at Augusta National. The run-off areas are treacherous, and players will often be scrambling to get up and down.
The majority of players who have won at Augusta National have a great short game and have shown consistent ability to get up and down from tough spots.
Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green in past 24 rounds:
- Hideki Matsuyama (+0.71)
- Scottie Scheffler (+0.66)
- Patrick Reed (+0.61)
- Xander Schauffele (+0.53)
- Lucas Glover (+0.51)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Augusta National is most definitely a second shot golf course. Golfers can get away with a missed fairway here and there, however, it’s important that the misses with driver aren’t too wide of the target or there is serious trouble to be had.
Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:
- Bryson DeChambeau (+1.04)
- Rory McIlroy (+0.85)
- Scottie Scheffler (+0.84)
- Xander Schauffele (+0.71)
- Ludvig Aberg (+0.68)
Strokes Gained Putting: Fast Bentgrass
The USGA calculates that, on average, the greens at Augusta National are the fastest greens in the country. Three-putting is fairly common at Augusta and golfers must be able to combat the speed of the greens with effective lag putting.
Total Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Bentgrass in past 24 rounds:
- Justin Rose (+1.43)
- Sahith Theegala (+0.97)
- Min Woo Lee (+0.88)
- Cameron Smith (+0.70)
- Patrick Reed (+0.70)
Statistical Model
Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the six key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%); Course History (16%); Par 4 Scoring Average (10%); SG: Putting on Fast Bentgrass (16%); SG: OTT (16%). and SG: ARG (16%).
Last year, Jon Rahm ranked first in this model
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Tony Finau
- Justin Thomas
- Shane Lowry
- Will Zalatoris
- Corey Conners
- Si Woo Kim
- Rory McIlroy
- Stephan Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Chris Kirk
- Keegan Bradley
- Wyndham Clark
- Sahith Theegala
- Russell Henley
- Collin Morikawa
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Patrick Reed
My 2023 Pick:
Jon Rahm (+950) (FanDuel)
A few months ago, I never thought that I’d be able to say that Rahm would be going slightly under the radar heading into the 2023 Masters. It’s not that Rahm has done anything wrong, but both Scheffler and McIlroy have undoubtedly surpassed him as the scorching hot, super-elite, top of the market betting favorite category.
Since his win at Riviera, the Spaniard has finished 39th at Bay Hill, withdrew at The Players Championship, and failed to get out of the group stage at the WGC Dell Match Play. On the other hand, Scheffler won The PLAYERS Championship and McIlroy finished third at the WGC Dell Match Play.
Rahm has made six starts at The Masters and has come in the top-10 in four of them. The 28-year-old has incredible power off the tee, a requirement at Augusta which always plays longer than the scorecard indicates. He’s also incredible around the greens and ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Short Game, which is a combination of around the green play and putting, in his past 24 rounds.
As we’ve seen over the years at The Masters, having the ability to chip and putt your way out of difficult situations is a fundamental aspect of getting it done at Augusta National.
While Scheffler has made a strong case to be viewed as the world’s best player, I still believe that title belongs to Rahm. This will be the year Rahmbo joins the ranks of Seve Ballesteros, José María Olazábal, and Sergio Garcia as natives of Spain to don a green jacket.
2024 The Masters Picks
Brooks Koepka +2500 (DraftKings)
In order to win the 2024 Masters, a player will have to go toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler, who’s hitting the ball as anyone in golf over the last two seasons. When building a betting card this week, it’s important for me to choose players that I believe can stare Scheffler down on the weekend at Augusta National. Brooks Koepka fits that bill.
Koepka’s lackluster performance at LIV Miami is concerning, but he’s the type of player who can turn it on quickly during the week of a major championship. Although I’d have preferred, he played well last week, I’ll take the odds discount we got as a result of his most recent results.
Prior to LIV Miami, Koepka appeared to be in solid form. He finished in the top twelve in four of five starts on LIV this season. When it comes to the five-time major champion, it’s well known that he has another gear for major championships. Everything he’s done both in the off-season and during the LIV season is to gear up for the year’s first major at Augusta National.
In his past five starts at Augusta National, the 33-year-old has three top-7 finishes, including two runners-up. The two years when he played poorly (2019 and 2020) were when he was nowhere near 100% healthy. All signs point to Brooks being in a great place physically as we enter major season.
Last year, Koepka was the 36 and 54-hole leader prior to letting the green jacket slip away to Jon Rahm. He used the result as a springboard to win his 5th major at Oak Hill at the PGA Championship.
Brooks enters the week looking to get one step closer to achieving the career grand slam and golf fans would be foolish to rule him out.
Joaquin Niemann +2800 (BetRivers)
Full disclosure, I bet Niemann the second he was invited to The Masters back in February at +8000. Although the odds have shortened dramatically since then, I can’t pretend that the Chilean isn’t one of the players who has a real chance to win the 2024 Masters.
While I was speaking with Niemann back in March, he told me how much he loves Augusta National.
“Yeah, it’s a place that I love. I’ve been playing good golf. Especially last year, I wasn’t playing my best golf, and I had a good week there and made triple on 11 that kind of killed me a little bit.
I feel like I’m getting more ready and more prepared every time. My game is getting better too. I know that I’m playing good enough to be in that situation that I can have a chance to win the Masters and it’s all about how I react to that situation.
So yeah, I’m going to prepare myself to be ready for that situation if it happens and I can fight for the title on the Sunday which would be awesome.”
As Niemann alluded to, the Chilean was able to have his best career finishes at The Masters (T16) despite not being in the best form. This year, Niemann comes into the week playing better golf than anyone in the world with the exception of Scottie Scheffler. The 25-year-old has won three times since December and has shown the world why he was regarded as one of the games future stars since he was a teenager.
Historically speaking, Joaco’s win at Riviera a few years back seems to be an indicator of potential success at Augusta National. Fourteen players have won at both historic courses including Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Nick Faldo, Tom Watson and Ben Hogan.
Niemann has all the shots to be successful at Augusta National. His low stingers will come in handy on plenty of holes down the stretch and he can work it both ways, playing the high draw or the low fade. He also putts best on Bentgrass greens and likes them fast. Whether PGA Tour or LIV, talent will always reign supreme, and I’ll always bet on that talent.
Cameron Smith (+4000) (FanDuel)
Cameron Smith is another player who we should get an odds discount on based off of the results at LIV Miami. Smith was forced to withdraw prior to the second round due to food poisoning. In my opinion, the number has drifted to a place where I’d consider it a “bet the number” play on the talent.
Smith is a contender for the green jacket anytime he tees it up at Augusta National. The Australian absolutely loves the golf course and has four top-10 finishes in his last six trips to the golf course. In both 2020 and 2022, Smith had a real chance of winning The Masters and came up just short, finishing T2 and T3 in those two tries. In his past 36 rounds, he ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total per round at Augusta.
In order to be successful at Augusta National, players must be creative around the greens and be shot makers who have plenty of ways to get around the golf course. Cam has all the shots required to be successful at the course at his touch around the greens will continue to serve him well in his hopes for a green jacket.
Smith is arguably the best putter in the world and has the capability to win a golf tournament on and around the greens. He’s already taken down Rory McIlroy at the home of golf on his way to a claret jug and is one of the few players who can stare down any of the world’s top golfers on the back nine at Augusta National.
Justin Thomas +4000 (FanDuel)
With how he’s been playing since his 2022 PGA Championship win, you may be shocked to see the name “Justin Thomas” in this preview. However, JT has drifted to a place on the odds board where I believe it’s worth taking a shot on the talent of a two-time major champion in his prime.
It’s not all bad for Thomas this season. He finished T6 at the signature Pebble Beach event, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T12 at the signature Arnold Palmer Invitational. In his last 24 rounds, JT ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 14th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 29th in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bentgrass greens.
Despite missing the cut last season, Thomas has played pretty well at Augusta National. He ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds at the course. He finished T4 in 2020, T21 in 2021 and T8 in 2022.
I believe the 2024 edition of The Masters is completely wide open. The past few years has been frustrating for Thomas fans, but I believe his peak form may be a bit closer than people realize.
Sergio Garcia +12000 (FanDuel)
Earlier this season, Garcia dueled with Joaquin Niemann before finally losing on the fourth playoff hole late into the night. Despite the loss, the 44-year-old seemed to gain confidence in his game. The results that followed weren’t spectacular, but in terms of his ball striking he’s shown some flashes of vintage Sergio.
At LIV Miami last week, Garcia played well on a massive golf course, losing in a playoff to Dean Burmester. He continued pumped the ball into the fairway and hit massive iron shot after massive iron shot. He also used a refurbished Scotty Cameron that he used in the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah. The putter served him incredibly well until he missed a short putt on the 18th hole to win the event. Overall, he gained 7.1 strokes putting at Doral.
Sergio Garcia is once again headed to Augusta National with a chip on his shoulder. Of course, having a chip on the shoulder is nothing new for the fiery Spaniard, but this year, the 2017 Masters Champion will arrive at Augusta with his game clicking on all cylinders.
Sergio winning a second green jacket is seemingly an almost impossible feat, but magical things tend to happen on the hallowed grounds of Augusta National.
Adam Scott +11000 (FanDuel)
Betting Adam Scott over the past handful of years has been a Masters staple for me, and like many traditions, has been a hard one for me to let go of.
Last week, Scott finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open in a windy and difficult week. I believe the wind will be a major factor this week at Augusta National, and the more difficult the tournament plays, the more I favor Scott. Scott also ranks 5th in his past 24 rounds on Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Bentgrass and has the short game these days that could help him contend in a major.
Since his win in 2013, Scott’s history at The Masters has been spotty. He has some poor finishes alongside a T9 in 2017 and a T18 in 2019. He’s been playing some solid golf this season, finishing T8 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T19 at the Genesis Invitational.
(All photos in piece belong to LIV Golf)
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Since 2013, I have created a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that have strongly predictive outcomes to success at Augusta. The list of players that can win at Augusta is usually filtered down to 20-24 players and in that time I have correctly shortlisted every Masters champion.
This includes last year’s winner, Jon Rahm. Even though Rahm essentially walked away with the green jack and did not make it very close, there were some close calls on top of the leaderboard as I had filtered out Phil Mickelson (t-2nd) and Patrick Reed (t-4th) as the LIV Tour is still behind on providing advanced analytics for their tour. Russell Henley was also filtered out and finished t-4th, five strokes from Rahm’s winning score of 276.
If you’re watching at home, the “critical holes” that will likely determine the top finishers will be holes No. 7, 8, 11 and 13. The 11th hole is projected to be the most critical of holes as over the past five Masters the top players have gained nearly a 1.5 strokes for the tournament on that hole alone.
Just like last year’s column I will get the LIV Tour players I’ve filtered out of the way. Since LIV Tour does not provide ShotLink or Trackman data, it’s more of a guessing game as to how certain LIV Tour golfers are playing. I did utilize recent performance as well as performance at Mayakoba and Doral as they were two former PGA Tour courses that have some semblance of crossover to playing Augusta.
Phil Mickelson
Thorbjorn Olesen
Charl Schwartzel
Cameron Smith
Bubba Watson
Admittedly Cameron Smith and Phil Mickelson are hard to leave out, but both have not played well as of late.
Next, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won three times by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller was the last to win in 1979. Prior to Zoeller though, it was Horton Smith in the inaugural event in 1934 followed by Gene Sarazen in 1935
Ludvig Aberg
Akshay Bhatia
Wyndham Clark
Eric Cole
Santiago de la Fuente (a)
Nick Dunlap
Austin Eckroat
Stewart Hagestad (a)
Ryo Hisatsune
Lee Hodges
Nicolai Hojgaard
Stephan Jaeger
Jake Knapp
Christo Lamprecht (a)
Peter Malnati
Denny McCarthy
Grayson Murray
Matthieu Pavon
Adam Schenk
Neal Shipley (a)
Jasper Stubbs (a)
Out of the first time invitees the data likes Ludvig Aberg and Eric Cole to play the best at Augusta National.
I also filter out old Masters champions that I do not believe can get into contention anymore.
Fred Couples
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir
Tiger Woods
Recency has a strong predictive value for player performance and missing the cut in the event in the prior week greatly reduces the likelihood of winning the following week compared to players that miss the cut, take a week off, and then play the following week. Therefore I filter out all players that missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open last week.
Byeong Hun An
Harris English
Rickie Fowler
Ryan Fox
Zach Johnson
Tom Kim
Erik van Rooyen
Camilo Villegas
I will also filter out the players that have never made the cut at the Masters:
Kurt Kitayama
Adrian Meronk
A Tradition Unlike Any Other…
Augusta National has traditionally favored longer hitters and even moreso in the past 20 years of the event. Of course there has been exceptions as in 2007 the short hitting Zach Johnson ended up winning the event.
Critics of my filtering system point out Johnson’s victory as a case for short hitters being able to win at Augusta, but they neglect the fact that Johnson’s victory came in historically low temperatures in the 40’s with wind gusts reaching 35 mph. That made the par-5’s almost unreachable in two shots and the course stressed wedge play and short game around the green where Zach had a sizable advantage.
It is projected to rain early on Thursday and then the weather is supposed to be sunny and warm for the rest of the week. It depends on how quickly the course dries up, but if it does dry out fairly quickly that will give the longer hitters the advantage as they will be able to reach certain par-5’s in two shots that the shorter hitters cannot reach if they don’t hit a quality tee shot and there may be par-5’s that some of the long hitters can reach in two shots with a short iron. Therefore I will filter out the following players due to a lack of distance off the tee:
Corey Conners
Lucas Glover
Emiliano Grillo
Brian Harman
Si Woo Kim
Chris Kirk
Shane Lowry
Colin Morikawa
JT Poston
Justin Rose
Sepp Straka
Out of these players the data likes Lowry and Morikawa the most. Both have good history at Augusta and they both just narrowly missed the distance benchmark set in the filter and both are excellent long iron players.
Last year I created a new formula to better determine ball height as Augusta has historically not taken too kindly to a low ball flight. Out of the 5 players filtered out for low ball flight using the new formula the best finish was only t-29th by Si Woo Kim. This year I’ve filtered out the following players.
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sungjae Im
Luke List
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas
Every year I filter out the poor performers on approach shots from 175-225 yards as Augusta National puts a lot of stress on those shots. Last year I filtered out nine players and three of them missed the cut with only Jordan Spieth finishing in the top-15 (t-4th) as the rest of the players were never a threat.
Here are the golfers I’m filtering out due to poor play from 175-225 yards:
Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Davis
Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Russell Henley
Max Homa
Rory McIlroy
Jordan Spieth
Nick Taylor
Rory had a nice outing at the Valero Texas Open and hit his irons better there, but appears to be struggling with a leftward miss. Other than that, Rory still has the game to win his first green jacket. Henley is usually one of the better iron players on Tour, but he has struggled this season from 175-225 yards and is a short hitter anyway.
I will also filter out Danny Willett as he is coming off injury and making his comeback at the Masters.
That leaves the 22 players that can win the Masters:
Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (25/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Sergio Garcia (100/1)
Adam Hadwin (175/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (80/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Brooks Koepka (16/1)
Min Woo Lee (70/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Taylor Moore (300/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Patrick Reed (80/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)
Adam Scott (100/1)
Sahith Theegala (50/1)
Gary Woodland (250/1)
Cameron Young (50/1)
Will Zalatoris (35/1)
Here’s my personal top-10 picks:
Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (35/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)
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Mike Boatright
Jan 23, 2017 at 4:31 pm
Iv’e researched heavily these mini tours and have found the leaders to have a scoring average of say 65.66 etc.. The pga tour needs to get off it’s elitists ass and give these good players a legitimate chance! Any time you set up a format that requires you to either have a sponsor exemption or play great for 6 days straight just to make it on the minor leagues is kinda making it far fetched for the majority of good players who aren’t rich. They do have some monday qualifying events which is just a blood fest first you need to pre qualify to make it into the qualifier which is you vs 4 guys usually a 65 loses and a 64 wins,then you qualify for the monday and it’s the same story you shoot 67 on a windy day the other guy shoots 66. By then the winner is so tired and nervous from his start that he shoots 75 70 and misses the cut by one stroke how is this fair?
adam
Jul 25, 2014 at 9:01 pm
Listen, if you’re good enough you will sail through Web.com Q School and be on that AAA tour. If you’re good enough there, you’ll be on the PGA tour. Much easier today. Web.com Q school doesn’t care if you went to Stanford or Truckee Meadows Community College.
jess robinson
Jun 7, 2013 at 12:31 pm
“Golf is happiness for
Happiness is achievement.
The father of achievement is motivation
The mother is encouragement.
The fine golf swing is truly achievement
Man may lie, cheat, and steal for gain.
But, these will never gain the golf swing
To gain the golf swing man must work.
Yet it is work without toil
It is exercise without the boredom.
It is intoxication without the hangover
It is stimulation without the pills.
It is failure yet its successes shine even more brightly
It is frustration yet it nourishes patience.
It irritates yet its soothing is far greater
It is futility yet it nurtures hope.
It is defeating yet it generates courage
It is humbling yet it ennobles the human spirit.
It is dignity yet it rejects arrogance
Its price is high yet its rewards are richer
Some say it’s a boy’s pastime yet it builds men
It is a buffer for the stresses of today’s living.
It cleanses the mind and rejuvenates the body
It is these things and many more.
For those of us who know it and love it
Golf is truly happiness.”
— Paul Bertholy
Frank Dolan
May 19, 2013 at 6:48 pm
Most authors make mistakes, specifically for those readers who look for mistakes. If you look past the mistakes, you will really enjoy the article. Another home run for you Mr. Cage. Keep those articles coming – I enjoy them tremendously.
P. S. – Did I make any grammatical errors?
youstink
May 11, 2013 at 7:43 pm
I never want to chase a dream. I just want to go to my 9-5 job and sit in my cubical all day and grind my teeth over the fact my wife is probably banging the pool guy that I pay with the money I saved from my boring conservative life…
When the day ends I want to put myself to sleep by correcting Blog articles on a golf website full of folks that can’t appreciate truthful information because they think they know everything…
Sean
May 10, 2013 at 4:36 pm
I enjoyed the article. There are a few segments I can relate to as well.
Steve Pratt
May 10, 2013 at 1:53 am
I thought this was a terrific article. It brought back good and bad memories of my experiences on various mini tours.
In my opinion, the author nicely captures the essence of life and struggles on the mini tours.
Danny
May 9, 2013 at 7:54 pm
Ian poulter will be broke and infamous in 10 years. They guy never wins except for the Ryder Cup which doesn’t pay. Normally the guys that got it dont flaunt it, and the ones that flaunt it don’t have it. Look at Warren Buffet compared to Donlad Trump. Trump has been bankrupt several times and sues publications that post his real worth which is about 1/10th what he says it is.
Curt
May 10, 2013 at 12:22 am
Donald Trump just inquired about your physical address, so he coulde serve you!!! Dont answer the door!!!
Shawn
May 10, 2013 at 11:20 am
I think you’ll find that a lot of successful people have had bankruptcies in their past. That line of reasoning doesn’t make a lot of sense. Trump’s liquid worth is far less than his worth on paper, but that’s a pretty common thing for people who own a lot of stuff, rather than have a lot of money.
I’m no Poulter fan, but he seems to have an awful lot of cash for a guy that never wins.
sdgfhjkhgjkdfsfg
May 9, 2013 at 7:15 pm
the best line in the article:
“But for every Ian Poulter who owns a fleet of Ferraris and struts around like a movie star, ”
Ian is a new money brat. It’s amazing how much that guy brags.
Dave
May 10, 2013 at 10:12 am
If there was one player I could punch in the face it would no doubt be IJP. By the way, the logo for his clothing line is ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE… what designers is this guy hiring!?
Tool Status
May 9, 2013 at 4:09 pm
id probably tear up one of these mini tours, but id rather just spend my time with the ladies
gorgor
May 11, 2013 at 10:17 pm
+! internet
danny
May 9, 2013 at 3:51 pm
I blame these guy’s parents. There comes a time in everyone’s life when you can’t chase your dreams any longer. Sometimes we can’t see it ourselves and the worst thing you can have is parents and loved ones feeding in to that dream. I had a sister who wanted to be a doctor in the worst way but couldn’t get in to med school. I also had a roommate who longed to be a fighter pilot, yet didn’t have great eye sight. Both of these people were told by loved ones that it’s time to grow up and move on, and both are living happy lives because of it now. It takes a real man to admit when enough is enough and it’s time to move on.
Nick
May 9, 2013 at 9:12 pm
Why Should anyone give up on their dreams ever? You only get one shot at life, do what makes you happy and forget the “realists”. They will be the ones wondering what if and saying I should have when they are too old to live thier dreams. At least you spent your life working 9-5, for whatever that is worth…
Danny
May 9, 2013 at 10:55 pm
It’s selfish. These dreamers will end up with debt and families to pass it on to.
tsunamijohn
May 9, 2013 at 3:35 pm
Question nothing, just drink the Kool-Aid.
Minitourplayer
May 9, 2013 at 2:56 pm
So did the Flagship Tour pay for this article?
Zak Kozuchowski
May 9, 2013 at 3:27 pm
Minitourplayer,
Rusty is a wonderful writer with strong journalism instincts and morals. For you to suggest otherwise shows that you haven’t paid much attention to his previous work, or the GolfWRX Featured Writers program as a whole.
– Zak
t120
May 9, 2013 at 8:34 pm
That…is your opinion, Zak.
I think it goes beyond sounding like an ad, but well-written? I wouldn’t go that far. It’s a few different “HARO” respondents he aggregated into an ambling, unclear rough draft of article. A good journalist doesn’t just take notes and format, he tells a captivating story.
What did he do instead?
1.) He spent a large portion of the article covering a mini-tour that hasn’t yet played a game.
2.) Profiled a Canadian golfer that briefly played in Canada, not U.S. Mini tours.
3.) Dropped a few names of past mini-tour players, yet didn’t expand on them.
4.) Threw in some generalizations about past tour players that may or may not have existed, been scratch golfers, and/or quit for up to 5 various reasons unrelated to their game. Not a single name, or proof backing up that theory.
All of that and I still have no idea what the Hooters, Pepsi or any other mini tour is really like. Maybe interview someone that’s actually been on one or more of the major tours and get a first hand account.
As it stands, if you read this article the only thing you’ll get out of it is “Guys. Even if you’re very, very good, if you can’t afford a nice round number like $10,000/yr – you will be forced to sell shoes at Nordstrom.”
tim roncone
May 10, 2013 at 1:13 am
when you choose to find a negative in something you will always fail to see the good or in this case understand whats he’s trying to portray. i really hope you have better things to do with your life than bash other peoples work. have a nice day tool.
t120
May 10, 2013 at 11:46 pm
So…your response is somehow vindicated because I didn’t write an article? Who’s really the tool here? You didn’t bring anything to the table but a comment about a comment and in total frustration with your inability to make a point – a condescending remark.
Minitourplayer
May 10, 2013 at 9:55 am
Its basically a commercial for a brand new tour that no one has heard of
Dave
May 10, 2013 at 10:09 am
I disagree… I clicked on the article thinking it would in fact be a story about life as a mini-tour player and instead it was disjointed and unrelatable. It’s a shame.
On another note, I find it hard to believe that there are only 156,000 HS seniors playing basketball each year, but who knows.
Shawn
May 10, 2013 at 11:18 am
I completely agree with you. Between the headline that feels kind of misleading, a lot of Typos (“There’s” as was mentioned above and a few other awkward choices) I don’t think this is a very good article at all.
x-15a2
May 9, 2013 at 2:13 pm
The word “there’s” is a contraction for “there is”. That being the case, you’d never write “there is plenty of golfers…”, “there is thousands who don’t.” or “There is thousands of golfers playing on the mini tours every year.” In these cases, you would say “there are” instead of “there is”. For the record, “…there’s next to no risk to play a Flagship Golf Tour event” is the correct use of “there’s”.
The contraction that you are looking for “there are” is “there’re” but besides being difficult to pronounce, “there’re” looks peculiar (and is incorrectly rejected by many spell-checkers). You are probably better off ditching a contraction for “there are”.
Joey5Picks
May 15, 2013 at 3:47 pm
That was a fun post to read. Thanks for the puncuation lesson.