Opinion & Analysis

Two ways Tiger could have won and what we learned

Published

11 years ago

Apr 15, 2013

“If I shot 65, I thought I could win it,” Tiger Woods said after his final round of the 2013 Masters.

The world’s No.1-ranked golfer went into the tournament with the kind of confidence, playing level and health that haven’t been seen in him for perhaps 10 years. But on Sunday evening he sat in fourth place, snake bit just like so many times in recent years.

Woods has crossed Hogan Bridge many times in public view, but after his latest in a series of near misses I’m starting to wonder if he may have walked under Greg Norman’s Ladder at some point.

For Woods, the operative word for the 2013 Masters is “if.” He was correct that if he has shot 65 he would have won. But the weekend had a couple of other “ifs” to ponder.

If Tiger crushes the par-5s he wins.

The holes at Augusta National Golf Course have names like Azalea, Rosebud and Carolina Cherry — names that reflect serenity and rare beauty. The par-5 No. 8 is named Yellow Jasmine, the par-5 No. 15 is called Firethorn. Woods might think that they would be better described as Black Cat and Broken Mirror.

He has built a career on devouring par-5s and nowhere is this more true than at Augusta. In his four victories, Woods has never been worse than 6-under under par on the par 5s, including the mind-numbing 13-under on the par 5s in 1997.

But Friday at No. 15, Woods made one of the most famous “8’s” in golf history. On Saturday on No. 8, his short par putt took almost two complete tours around the hole before the ball decided that gravity could kiss its butt. Tiger was just 4-under this year on the par-5s; if had executed better on Augusta’s most generous holes he would likely have achieved his goal.

If Tiger doesn’t hit the pin in 15, the golf world stays on its axis.

When the golf world went to bed on Friday night, it was filled with images of the No. 1 player in the world amongst the leaders, poised to make a weekend charge for his fifth green jacket and first since 2005. It awoke to the news that there was a storm brewing in Augusta, Ga., that had nothing to do with the weather.

The bombshell news that Woods might be disqualified for an improper drop on No. 15 during the second round ignited a global conversation that had people from every corner of the world weighing in. From Peter Jacobson to Piers Morgan, everyone had an opinion about what had exactly had happened and what exactly should be the consequences.

The potential outcomes for Tiger were all bad from the moment that ball hit the pin on No. 15 approach. According to Rule 16-1,Woods’ options were to either use the designated drop area, drop from as close as possible to the place where he hit the first shot or drop along the line where the ball last entered the hazard, keeping the hole on that line. Woods chose a kind of hybrid, dropping a few yards back along the line of where the ball first entered the hazard. He hit a shot pin high to within 4 feet of the hole, earning praise not only for executing the shot but also for maintaining his composure.

Tiger spoke to reporters after his round without knowing that potential ramifications. He stated openly and honestly that after considering and rejecting the option to hit from the designated drop area, he had moved back a couple of yards from where he had hit his third shot to give himself a margin of error. After hearing that, rules officials determined that Woods might not have dropped the ball as close as possible. It was only at that point that officials thought it would be a good idea to talk to Woods, who said the same thing that he had said to the media. That led officials to decide to give him a two-stroke penalty and not to DQ him.

Questions Asked

The issues are complex but also quite clear. How did the infraction go undetected by on-course officials? Did Tiger Woods receive preferential treatment? And most importantly, how can a travesty like this be prevented?

Let’s start with the officials.

I spoke to people at the highest levels of the golf industry who were incredulous that there was not some level of intervention from the officials on the course at the time of the incident. They assured me that there is a battalion of rules officials from a variety of golf’s ruling bodies on the course at any given time; what’s more, because of it’s significance and the water present, there were likely at least two rules officials within shouting distance at the time of Woods’ infraction.

Surely one of those pairs of eyes should have recognized that Tiger was about to follow a shot into cold water with a jump into hot water. In every other sport, players are expected to play and officials are expected to officiate. I know that players are expected to know and play by the rules. But there is integrity, and then there is doing your job. During last year’s officials strike the NFL found out the cost of having amateur officials determining the outcome of professional sporting contests.

With millions of eyes watching and millions of dollars on the line, golf needs to get its officiating house in order; to leave any key call up to the knowledge of the players is unfair and inappropriate at this level of competition. Players will still call penalties on themselves, but they shouldn’t have to. Woods was within the rules as he understood them. To suggest something else was afoot seems petty and pointless. When questioned by officials, he was honest and he took his penalty like a man.

Next is the issue of preferential treatment.

The controversy was started by a call to officials by a television viewer; Rule 33-7 was introduced as a way to deal with the fact that television viewers have a say in what goes on in a professional event. The rule is meant to give officials the opportunity to address an issue that has already been addressed without giving a player the death penalty (a DQ) after the fact.

The rule states that a “save” can be made at the discretion of the rules committee, and it is the word discretion that causes the opportunity for conflict.

Saturday’s ruling is by far the most significant use of the rule to save a player from disqualification, and the general question amongst current and former players is whether or not the rules committee would have acted in their favor in similar circumstance. Judging from what is in the Twitterverse, the answer seems to be that they feel they would not have received the same tender mercies that Woods received. But that is conjecture; the fact is that any and all players can and should benefit from rule 33-7; the fact that the most famous player in the world is among the first should ensure that in the future all players would be given the same consideration because of the notoriety that this ruling received.

Some have suggested that Woods should have been disqualified or should have withdrawn from competition for signing a wrong scorecard. But rules officials knew about the controversy before he signed his scorecard. To me it is inexplicable that they did not consult Woods about the issue before he signed his scorecard. Had they done so, they could have assessed the penalty and Woods would have signed an infuriating but incorrect scorecard and we would have had a different conversation.

Lessons Learned

No matter how you feel about what happened on Friday and Saturday, there should be agreement on the point that it’s time to stop managing this problem and start solving it. Golf needs to have a scoring system in place to review questionable calls. How about having a review official in the TV booth the same way that the NFL has one? On-course officials can flag calls for a review that would be completed before the player’s round is completed and an incorrect scorecard is signed.

The problem here is that only the players that are good enough or are doing well enough to merit television coverage would be subject to this review, but these are the only cases where viewer call-ins are an issue. Speaking of viewer call-in, let’s once and for all end the practice of taking outside calls that affect a sporting event. He thought of a viewer call affecting the outcome in any other professional sport is so absurd as to draw laughter. In other sports, players and officials both have to take credit for their excellence and responsibility for their mistakes. Golf should not be the exception.

Lastly, why not have an official score that is kept by the officials? An official digital scorecard can be kept for every foursome, which would mean that the chance of signing for a wrong scorecard would be thing of the past. There are many wonderful traditions in golf; having a player who has left his or her heart on soul on the course only to have that effort wiped away because of bad arithmetic is not one of them. When it happens it not only breaks the heart of existing fans, it drives away potential new fans who rightly find the practice brutal and senseless. The time has come to let players play and let scorers score.

Usually, I am in favor of anything that brings global attention to golf, and the Masters is an event that does it every year because of its beauty and its tradition. It’s unfortunate that when the game should have been taking a star turn, it became mired in a controversy that confused and agitated the lovers of the game and confounded casual fans who wondered how so many smart people could get themselves so fouled up.

What we do know is that this episode opened up a new chapter in the game. Golfers will likely now want to know the rules better, which will help speed up everyday play. And hopefully golf will use this as a wake-up call to take a look at modernizing the scoring and rules process, which is much more crucial to the growth to the growth of the game than how long a putter is.

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Blame the rules committee, not Tiger

Michael Williams

Williams has a reputation as a savvy broadcaster, and as an incisive interviewer and writer. An avid golfer himself, Williams has covered the game of golf and the golf lifestyle including courses, restaurants, travel and sports marketing for publications all over the world. He is currently working with a wide range of outlets in traditional and electronic media, and has produced and hosted “Sticks and Stones” on the Fox Radio network, a critically acclaimed show that combined coverage of the golf world with interviews of the Washington power elite. His work on Newschannel8’s “Capital Golf Weekly” and “SportsTalk” have established him as one of the area’s most trusted sources for golf reporting. Williams has also made numerous radio appearances on “The John Thompson Show,” and a host of other local productions. He is a sought-after speaker and panel moderator, he has recently launched a new partnership with The O Team to create original golf-themed programming and events. Williams is a member of the United States Golf Association and the Golf Writers Association of America.

29 Comments

tnuts

Apr 17, 2013 at 9:25 am

The only question I have is what about the other players in the field? How do you call in a rules infraction on them? Viewer call ins on the rules is quite ridiculous considering the amount of money and stress involved with playing in such high profile event.

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Kevin S, PGA

Apr 16, 2013 at 10:51 pm

I couldn’t disagree more..I think signing a correct scorecard and being responsible for it are as much of a tradition of the game as anything else. I also think that part of what makes golf such a. Great game is players calling penalties on themselves and the honor system. Take that away and a lot of tradition goes with it. I do agree however with eliminating the practice of fans calling in with rules disputes.

Kevin S, PGA Professional, Park Ridge, NJ

Reply Report comment
Joe C

Apr 16, 2013 at 9:45 am

If a person is going to play golf in competition for tons of money and notariety I think they should know the rules of the game better than anyone. If a player does not know them and get caught breaking one it is not the fault of any referee, official, or committee, or TV viewer, it is the player’s fault. Anybody who believes otherwise does not understand how golf is meant to be played at its highest level.

I believe Tiger unintentionally broke the rule but still should have applied the proper penalty to himself once he was aware of the infraction. And the penalty for signing an incorrect card is disqualification, not two strokes.

Having an official scorekeeper would be OK as long as a player still had to sign his name to his card.

Reply Report comment
Chris

Apr 16, 2013 at 9:21 am

It was a tough break but it is what it is. He got unlucky but to say it cost him the tournament is debateable. He had several other chances to make up strokes and didn’t take advantage. He would be the first person to tell you that. Eyes set on the US Open now.

Reply Report comment
Ty

Apr 16, 2013 at 8:12 am

Good point Tommy – I can’t think of a better situational shot than Cabrera’s off the top of my head. That man certainly has some cajones. What amazes me is that Tiger’s B game is almost capable of winning majors. If his ball had never hit the flagstick on 15, he would have ended up 4 shots better and in a 3-way playoff at 9 under par.

Reply Report comment
- Steve
  
  Apr 16, 2013 at 1:28 pm
  
  I would go as far to say he probably would have ended up 5 strokes better. That was one of those shots that looked like it would have stopped right next to the pin for an easy birdie putt.
  
  Reply Report comment
- TWShoot67
  
  Apr 16, 2013 at 5:10 pm
  
  IF, IF , IF. we all know the old saying if my aunt had …. she’s be my uncle. The fact is we’ll never know how this all would have went down if things were handled correctly by officials. It has to mess with your mindset when you go to bed with one score then wake up to find your being penalized 2 shots. Not saying tiger didn’t deserve the 2 shot penalty. Just saying what IF…… LOL
  
  Part 2 IF Tiger never hit the flag he may have gone on a little run and went into Saturday with a lead and we all know what happens most times when Tiger’s in that position. IF IF IF. Tiger will be fine. Now the rules committee needs to stop the outside agency (phone callers) NOW! Arnold, Jack, and Ben never dealt with that at all during their round in the middle of a MAJOR CHAMPIONSHIP!
  
  Reply Report comment
Tommy

Apr 16, 2013 at 12:30 am

The 2 shot penalty did not prevent him from winning. He would still have missed the playoff by 2 shots. If he had made a “weekend charge” maybe he would have been closer. There was no weekend charge. Even without the 2 shot penalty on Friday’s score he didn’t break 70 on any day. He simply didn’t play well enough to win.
On a more positive note, has there ever been a better situational shot than Cabrera’s 7 iron on 18, knowing he had to birdy to tie.

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Ty

Apr 15, 2013 at 11:42 pm

Also, “unknowingly” breaking the rule would qualify as an inadvertent mistake you moron.

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Ty

Apr 15, 2013 at 11:41 pm

Jay – 33-7 was used in this instance to save Tiger from the committee’s mistake. Standard procedure on a call-in penalty like that is to review the potential infraction with the player in question before he signs his scorecard in the scorer’s tent. In this case, they reviewed the potential infraction on there own and deemed that there had been no infraction. If they had simply followed protocol and confronted Tiger, he would have added the 2 strokes before he signed and there would be no discussion whatsoever.

Reply Report comment
- Steve
  
  Apr 16, 2013 at 1:25 pm
  
  This
  
  Reply Report comment
Jay

Apr 15, 2013 at 11:00 pm

I thought the purpose of 33-7 was to save a golfer from an inadvertent mistake. Knowingly or not, Tiger broke the rule to gain an advantage. He wanted 4 yards off the shot, so he moved back 2 yards and took 2 yard off with the swing.

Reply Report comment
Dalton

Apr 15, 2013 at 5:16 pm

A lot of people are up in arms about the call in rulings. The Dustin Johnson ruling was a call in too, and I don’t remember there being a big fuss then. Maybe I just don’t remember it, but for everyone crying about tiger getting preferential treatment this would definitely be a case. When a rule negatively effects him there is a storm of outcry to change the rule.

Reply Report comment
- Steve
  
  Apr 16, 2013 at 1:24 pm
  
  There were a ton of people that:
  A) thought calling in was ridiculous
  B) thought it was a dumb call to even claim that was a bunker
  
  If the rule was in place back then, I’d be willing to bet DJ would have been “saved” as well.
  
  Reply Report comment
Jeff

Apr 15, 2013 at 4:36 pm

wait, you say he was “only” -4 on the par 5s for the week? Even forgetting the craziest-triple-bogey-of-all-time, playing 16 holes at -4 is pretty darn good for anyone, including tour pros. His entire score was -5…I’m thinking if he had played THE REST OF THE HOLES as well as he played the par 5s he would’ve won.

Reply Report comment
Mike B.

Apr 15, 2013 at 3:59 pm

I believe Tiger will win 2 majors this year, so don’t feel too sorry for him. Now if he could only hit his driver into the fairway, he’d be untouchable!

Reply Report comment
Ty

Apr 15, 2013 at 3:25 pm

Carmine Conti, what you’ve just said … is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

This one falls on the Rules Committee. After the caller notified them of the potential infraction, they should have not only reviewed the tape themselves but also notified Tiger in the scorer’s tent before he signed his card. Had they done this, Tiger would have admitted his mistake, signed for the correct score and all of this would be a non-issue.

Reply Report comment
- Steve
  
  Apr 16, 2013 at 1:21 pm
  
  Lol +1 for the Billy Madison reference.
  
  Reply Report comment
Barry Smoot

Apr 15, 2013 at 3:05 pm

The “Viewer Phone Caller” was Jack

Reply Report comment
- Servost
  
  Apr 15, 2013 at 10:05 pm
  
  Thats a good one
  
  Reply Report comment
Carmine Conti

Apr 15, 2013 at 2:45 pm

Once Again were all left scratching our Nike Hatted Heads wondering why and how come…. The Key Point or decision was made prior to his round ending,,,after the viewer phone call, the Rules Committee of Augusta National made the decision that his drop was legal…. Lets Stop right there…… How do they decide or in God’s name do they see that as a “legal drop”…. Now the debate begins….. I give Mr Woods credit for admitting what his intent was, as well as what his intent was with twelve woman he dialed in, but for the acclaimed and holier than thou Augusta Committee of the “sacred” to not penalize immediately is unacceptable… Refs on the course absolutely, and if they miss the call, there is no foul,unless like in the movie “Bagger Vance” the player calls it on himself… For the “Greatest Golfer of All Time” what an example he would of set,, but On-Course Officials, could prevent, (as in other Sports) cheating, and the calls from viewers will cease and desist…. This though was not good for the game, and Mr. Woods knowing his intent, should’ve “Withdrew”, showing even he is not bigger than the game, when intel, it would of showed all the world he’s respectful of the what has made him the icon he so desperately wants to be… In this case even if he’d had won….”It Woods not of taken care of everything”….

Reply Report comment
- Mario
  
  Apr 15, 2013 at 10:38 pm
  
  THUMBS UP
  
  Reply Report comment
chris

Apr 15, 2013 at 2:38 pm

He screwed up, he lost, it is done. Get on with life.

Reply Report comment
Raul Schwarx

Apr 15, 2013 at 2:20 pm

Finally someone makes the proper analysis… Congratulations on a well researched and developed article. Broadcasters should learn from this !

Reply Report comment
bob

Apr 15, 2013 at 2:20 pm

Sorry for the typos

Reply Report comment
bob

Apr 15, 2013 at 2:19 pm

Enough with the tiger this or that he lost but so did a wholr bunch of other good golfers and men. On another note keeping your own score is more inherent to the integrity of the game then long ,shooort or another club length. You need to refocus .

Reply Report comment
TWShoot67

Apr 15, 2013 at 2:13 pm

Yes there needs to be some changes for sure. In no way should a spectator at home or on course having any influence on the game. second half of the field cold be making same mistake Tiger made and it would go undetected to TV viewer as said players is ever on TV like the leaders of an event are. The game needs to be fair for everyone and like any other sports mistakes happen even with refs. But guess what we live with them. In baseball strike zones are subject to ridicule ever single game. In basketball and football fouls get called and some do not. Golf needs to have referees in place and they make the call and that’s it. No more second guessing TV viewer calling in and then changing what happens. All I know NO ONE that watched on Friday that I sat with thought anything Tiger did was wrong. In fact if you listed to David Feherty who’s sitting in a booth and a former player was under no pressure and he didn’t even know which hazard it was yellow or Red! Things definitely need to change and it’s up to golf to not let anything like this happen again. Also if TV/Media thought tiger was evasive in the past after post round interviews, I could see him being even more vague as his statements along with a phone caller and a late night dinner changed the course of the Masters. One last though thanks for a well written article! Tim

Reply Report comment
- Allen
  
  Apr 16, 2013 at 6:16 am
  
  I’ve been thinking about this supposed “TV viewer” calling in rules infractions and feel certain that I’m not the first one to think: how in the world do they know what number to call; who to speak with: why do they take their call. if I called the Augusta National today would Billy Payne take my call? Common sense tells me that if isn’t an ordinary viewer. I suspect it is either a disgruntled marginal pro or a member of the golf media. My hunch is it is the latter. Most pros wouldn’t know who to call either and since there has never been one single story pursuing the identity of these “callers”, it sure looks like a conspiracy of silence.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Steve
    
    Apr 16, 2013 at 1:17 pm
    
    I was thinking the exact same thing lol.
    
    Reply Report comment

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

4 days ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

1 week ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

1 week ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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