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The best bets to win the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship

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It appears that the temporary move last year from Quail Hollow to TPC Potomac made little difference at all to the Wells Fargo Championship.

Max Homa backed up his win at the traditional home with victory over Keegan Bradley (18th in 2021), whilst fifth-placed Rory McIlroy added yet another high finish to an extraordinary course record. Further down, Stewart Cink, Brian Harman and James Hahn gave credence to the belief that the course mattered not, but a gnarled experience does.

There were highlights from the younger brigade, with the brilliant maiden Cameron Young getting involved, but this was the Wells Fargo as we know it, where contenders are generally major standard and with enough nous about them to know the rare occasion to attack the course.

Third on his only try, Viktor Hovland called Quail Hollow, “more of kind of a driving range golf course,” whilst two-time winner Max Homa revealed the secret to be, “a lot of 7-irons, 8-irons in, drive it in the fairway.”

Drive it long and straight, have your irons from 170-yards on point, and grind very well if you do miss the greens.

Favourite at around 8/1, Rory McIlroy’s course form is disgusting.

From 11 tries, the world number three has three wins, one runner-up, a fourth place, a pair of eighth-place finishes and a 10th, 16th and 22nd place. However, he seems to have returned to having directional problems with his driver, something that won’t do around here and surely makes single-figure odds of much less appeal than they might have done.

Full respect to Tony Finau, hero of last week’s column, whose usual tee-to-green game would be a massive asset here. However, despite his numerous high finishes in major championships, he has yet to catch fire around Quail (and didn’t around Potomac), recording a best finish of 16th, and that eight years ago.

With Xander Sceuffele unconvincing this year so far, and Viktor Hovland still lacking with the short game, despite openly pleased with the improvement he is making, the stage is set for Patrick Cantlay to win his seventh PGA Tour title, leaping one victory above Max Homa, a player he has a bizarre similarity with.

The world number four loves Muirfield, where he holds two crowns, a third and one fourth – Homa has a fifth and sixth placing. Cantlay has a runner-up from two attempts at TPC Scottsdale, Homa with a sixth and 14th. The world number seven has a recent and best sixth at the Valspar in Florida, and his rival was runner-up on his only start in 2017.

Finally Homa has a win, second, fifth and 10th at classic Riviera, whilst the selection can’t match the victory but has a record of third, fourth and three further top-20 finishes around a course with very similar properties to this week’s test.

If that’s not enough, they’ve also both been called out for slow play this season – Homa during the Match Play, and Cantlay a few times, most notably when in the second-last group at the Masters.

Ignore the controversy as Cantlay himself is doing and look at the golf. He’s the bet of the week.

The 31-year-old Jupiter Island resident has not been out of the world’s top five players since winning a play-off against Bryson DeChambeau at the BMW Championship in 2021, and the following year racked up 10 top-10 finishes from just 20 starts, including a win at his favoured BMW (although on a different course), play-off losses at the Pheonix Open and Heritage, second place behind a rampant Tony Finau in Detroit and a final runner-up spot at his beloved TPC Summerlin, when chasing Tom Kim too hard down the stretch.

2023 has been almost as impressive. No wins as yet, but third behind Jon Rahm and Max Homa at Riviera is top class, as was his one-shot defeat behind play-off protagonists Matt Fitzpatrick and Jordan Spieth at the elevated RBC Heritage last time out.

In between, Cantlay had chances at Bay Hill before finishing in fourth, whilst he was in that same position going into the final round at Augusta.

Overall rankings have the selection in third place for form over the past three months, third in total driving, 16th in greens-in-regulation and ninth in putting average. He leads the par-5 performance and is 12th for par-4s whilst his ranking of eighth for bogey-avoidance this year gives an easy impression that this course really should suit despite a moderate record from a small sample.

Cantlay was a more-than respectable 33rd at the 2017 PGA Championship held here, and recorded three wins from four matches at the 2022 Presidents Cup last September, so I’m happy to ignore the missed-cut on the number in 2021, his only outing at a full 72-hole stroke play event.

Anyway, who was it that also missed their cut on their first outing at Quail? Ah yes, Max….

We may not have Rahm or Scottie here, but this does look to go the way of one of the classier players in the field. In that respect, it’s tough to go too far down for potential champions, and 2018 championJason Dayshould make obvious appeal after a comeback season, I’m not certain he has the length to compete for a full 72 holes, something that found him out at Augusta.

At double the price, row along with Keith Mitchell, now just outside the top-50 having been ranked closer to 200 in 2010.

The 31-year-old Sea Island resident has an improving record here, with a debut 35th being followed by eighth and third in 2019 and 2021. The former came after a missed-cut at Harbour Town, whilst the best of his efforts followed a finish of 69 at Copperhead – he can play this track without resorting to recent memory.

Although he has only one victory on tour, Mitchell’s win at the 2019 Honda Classic came courtesy of a one shot victory over Rickie Fowler, the 2012 Wells Fargo champion, and fourth-placed Lucas Glover, winner of this week’s event the year previous.

Other notable efforts include top-five finishes at Bay Hill and Riviera (behind major-class Rahm, Homa, Cantlay and Zalatoris) whilst top-15s at the Byron Nelson, Players and Valspar all read well.

Although form seemed to have dropped since the Genesis Invitational, he will have been buoyed by a fifth place finish alongside Sungjae Im at the pairs competition, taking last week’s Mexico event out of his schedule to prepare for this week.

The selection ranks fifth over three months and second over six in the all-round rankings list, mainly off a top-10 for total driving and a solid putter, both aspects being a huge contributor to a solid display here this week.

Of interest to any first-round leader backers may be Mitchell’s regular fast starts. On eight occasions since the start of 2022, Mitchell has had eight top-10 placings after the opening round, five of those inside the top eight, four in the top five. Top that with his three outings here finding him in second, eighth and fourth after Thursday’s finish, and he’ll be worth a look at 60/1 or thereabouts.

If improving Hayden Buckley did not need to scramble, he would be worth a serious look at around 90/1 given his best form ties in with the main contenders.

Top-10 finishes at Summerlin, Jackson, Texas and most recently fifth at the classier-than-usual Heritage are pointers to the potential of the 26-year-old, who highlighted his profile with a 14th at the U.S Open at Brookline (tied third at halfway).  Constantly finding on the field from tee-to-green, he hasn’t shown enough in the classic events mentioned above to warrant a play. Soon, though.

Maybe controversial but despite his admirable consistency at the top level, I remain unconvinced that Sungjae Im has the oomph to get over the line in this type of event. Either way, both are worth a look in the ‘top’ markets, with the Korean’s drift in the outright market making his top-10/20 odds rather appealing.

There are cases to be made for the likes of tee-to-green wizard Emiliano Grillo and Wyndham Clark with 14 cuts in a row, but the former major champion Gary Woodland, playing better than his numbers, is the one for the top-10/20 bet for the week.

The 38-year-old winner of the 2019 U.S Open has back-form at all the right places, with form not only in majors, but at Bay Hill, Muirfield, Scottsdale and at the Honda, all courses that provide links to formlines around Quail.

Whilst he may not have the where-withall to win, his record shows that he repeats form at the same tracks, almost matching his 2014 fourth place here in 2021, when overcoming a missed-cut at the Valspar to lead for two rounds before finishing fifth.

In the 10 starts of 2023, the four time major top-ten player has shot 65 in the second round at the Sony, been top-five after the opening round at Torrey Pines, within the top-10 for the last three days at Riviera, and was top-10 for three rounds at Augusta before finishing 14th.

Woodland’s most recent outing at the Fianu/Rahm match-up in Mexico saw him just outside the top-20 going into Sunday, when he would have found the birdie-fest far removed from his talents.

There are no gimmes with Woodland but he’s at his best when the field can’t get away from him with mid-60 rounds throughout. This should be nothing of that type and he can land his fourth course top-20.

Recommended Bets:

  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Keith Mitchell
  • Keith MitchellFirst-round-leader
  • Gary Woodland – Top-10
  • Gary Woodland – Top-20
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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