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Opinion & Analysis

The best bets to win the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship

Published

12 months ago

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It appears that the temporary move last year from Quail Hollow to TPC Potomac made little difference at all to the Wells Fargo Championship.

Max Homa backed up his win at the traditional home with victory over Keegan Bradley (18th in 2021), whilst fifth-placed Rory McIlroy added yet another high finish to an extraordinary course record. Further down, Stewart Cink, Brian Harman and James Hahn gave credence to the belief that the course mattered not, but a gnarled experience does.

There were highlights from the younger brigade, with the brilliant maiden Cameron Young getting involved, but this was the Wells Fargo as we know it, where contenders are generally major standard and with enough nous about them to know the rare occasion to attack the course.

Third on his only try, Viktor Hovland called Quail Hollow, “more of kind of a driving range golf course,” whilst two-time winner Max Homa revealed the secret to be, “a lot of 7-irons, 8-irons in, drive it in the fairway.”

Drive it long and straight, have your irons from 170-yards on point, and grind very well if you do miss the greens.

Favourite at around 8/1, Rory McIlroy’s course form is disgusting.

From 11 tries, the world number three has three wins, one runner-up, a fourth place, a pair of eighth-place finishes and a 10th, 16th and 22nd place. However, he seems to have returned to having directional problems with his driver, something that won’t do around here and surely makes single-figure odds of much less appeal than they might have done.

Full respect to Tony Finau, hero of last week’s column, whose usual tee-to-green game would be a massive asset here. However, despite his numerous high finishes in major championships, he has yet to catch fire around Quail (and didn’t around Potomac), recording a best finish of 16th, and that eight years ago.

With Xander Sceuffele unconvincing this year so far, and Viktor Hovland still lacking with the short game, despite openly pleased with the improvement he is making, the stage is set for Patrick Cantlay to win his seventh PGA Tour title, leaping one victory above Max Homa, a player he has a bizarre similarity with.

The world number four loves Muirfield, where he holds two crowns, a third and one fourth – Homa has a fifth and sixth placing. Cantlay has a runner-up from two attempts at TPC Scottsdale, Homa with a sixth and 14th. The world number seven has a recent and best sixth at the Valspar in Florida, and his rival was runner-up on his only start in 2017.

Finally Homa has a win, second, fifth and 10th at classic Riviera, whilst the selection can’t match the victory but has a record of third, fourth and three further top-20 finishes around a course with very similar properties to this week’s test.

If that’s not enough, they’ve also both been called out for slow play this season – Homa during the Match Play, and Cantlay a few times, most notably when in the second-last group at the Masters.

Ignore the controversy as Cantlay himself is doing and look at the golf. He’s the bet of the week.

The 31-year-old Jupiter Island resident has not been out of the world’s top five players since winning a play-off against Bryson DeChambeau at the BMW Championship in 2021, and the following year racked up 10 top-10 finishes from just 20 starts, including a win at his favoured BMW (although on a different course), play-off losses at the Pheonix Open and Heritage, second place behind a rampant Tony Finau in Detroit and a final runner-up spot at his beloved TPC Summerlin, when chasing Tom Kim too hard down the stretch.

2023 has been almost as impressive. No wins as yet, but third behind Jon Rahm and Max Homa at Riviera is top class, as was his one-shot defeat behind play-off protagonists Matt Fitzpatrick and Jordan Spieth at the elevated RBC Heritage last time out.

In between, Cantlay had chances at Bay Hill before finishing in fourth, whilst he was in that same position going into the final round at Augusta.

Overall rankings have the selection in third place for form over the past three months, third in total driving, 16th in greens-in-regulation and ninth in putting average. He leads the par-5 performance and is 12th for par-4s whilst his ranking of eighth for bogey-avoidance this year gives an easy impression that this course really should suit despite a moderate record from a small sample.

Cantlay was a more-than respectable 33rd at the 2017 PGA Championship held here, and recorded three wins from four matches at the 2022 Presidents Cup last September, so I’m happy to ignore the missed-cut on the number in 2021, his only outing at a full 72-hole stroke play event.

Anyway, who was it that also missed their cut on their first outing at Quail? Ah yes, Max….

We may not have Rahm or Scottie here, but this does look to go the way of one of the classier players in the field. In that respect, it’s tough to go too far down for potential champions, and 2018 championJason Dayshould make obvious appeal after a comeback season, I’m not certain he has the length to compete for a full 72 holes, something that found him out at Augusta.

At double the price, row along with Keith Mitchell, now just outside the top-50 having been ranked closer to 200 in 2010.

The 31-year-old Sea Island resident has an improving record here, with a debut 35th being followed by eighth and third in 2019 and 2021. The former came after a missed-cut at Harbour Town, whilst the best of his efforts followed a finish of 69 at Copperhead – he can play this track without resorting to recent memory.

Although he has only one victory on tour, Mitchell’s win at the 2019 Honda Classic came courtesy of a one shot victory over Rickie Fowler, the 2012 Wells Fargo champion, and fourth-placed Lucas Glover, winner of this week’s event the year previous.

Other notable efforts include top-five finishes at Bay Hill and Riviera (behind major-class Rahm, Homa, Cantlay and Zalatoris) whilst top-15s at the Byron Nelson, Players and Valspar all read well.

Although form seemed to have dropped since the Genesis Invitational, he will have been buoyed by a fifth place finish alongside Sungjae Im at the pairs competition, taking last week’s Mexico event out of his schedule to prepare for this week.

The selection ranks fifth over three months and second over six in the all-round rankings list, mainly off a top-10 for total driving and a solid putter, both aspects being a huge contributor to a solid display here this week.

Of interest to any first-round leader backers may be Mitchell’s regular fast starts. On eight occasions since the start of 2022, Mitchell has had eight top-10 placings after the opening round, five of those inside the top eight, four in the top five. Top that with his three outings here finding him in second, eighth and fourth after Thursday’s finish, and he’ll be worth a look at 60/1 or thereabouts.

If improving Hayden Buckley did not need to scramble, he would be worth a serious look at around 90/1 given his best form ties in with the main contenders.

Top-10 finishes at Summerlin, Jackson, Texas and most recently fifth at the classier-than-usual Heritage are pointers to the potential of the 26-year-old, who highlighted his profile with a 14th at the U.S Open at Brookline (tied third at halfway).  Constantly finding on the field from tee-to-green, he hasn’t shown enough in the classic events mentioned above to warrant a play. Soon, though.

Maybe controversial but despite his admirable consistency at the top level, I remain unconvinced that Sungjae Im has the oomph to get over the line in this type of event. Either way, both are worth a look in the ‘top’ markets, with the Korean’s drift in the outright market making his top-10/20 odds rather appealing.

There are cases to be made for the likes of tee-to-green wizard Emiliano Grillo and Wyndham Clark with 14 cuts in a row, but the former major champion Gary Woodland, playing better than his numbers, is the one for the top-10/20 bet for the week.

The 38-year-old winner of the 2019 U.S Open has back-form at all the right places, with form not only in majors, but at Bay Hill, Muirfield, Scottsdale and at the Honda, all courses that provide links to formlines around Quail.

Whilst he may not have the where-withall to win, his record shows that he repeats form at the same tracks, almost matching his 2014 fourth place here in 2021, when overcoming a missed-cut at the Valspar to lead for two rounds before finishing fifth.

In the 10 starts of 2023, the four time major top-ten player has shot 65 in the second round at the Sony, been top-five after the opening round at Torrey Pines, within the top-10 for the last three days at Riviera, and was top-10 for three rounds at Augusta before finishing 14th.

Woodland’s most recent outing at the Fianu/Rahm match-up in Mexico saw him just outside the top-20 going into Sunday, when he would have found the birdie-fest far removed from his talents.

There are no gimmes with Woodland but he’s at his best when the field can’t get away from him with mid-60 rounds throughout. This should be nothing of that type and he can land his fourth course top-20.

Recommended Bets:

  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Keith Mitchell
  • Keith Mitchell – First-round-leader
  • Gary Woodland – Top-10
  • Gary Woodland – Top-20
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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

4 days ago

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Apr 18, 2024

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

Published

4 days ago

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Apr 18, 2024

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

7 days ago

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Apr 15, 2024

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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WITB

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