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Opinion & Analysis

2023 Genesis Open: Betting Picks & Selections

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For the second consecutive week, the PGA Tour treats golf fans with another elevated event.

Forget the reasons the increased funds and prize-money came about, we get the cream of the crop again. As Rory McIlroy says, “When I tune into a Tampa Bay Buccaneers game, I expect to see Tom Brady throw a football. When I tune into a Formula 1 race, I expect to see Lewis Hamilton in a car.”

Following Scottie Scheffler’s very professional victory at TPC Scottsdale, the new (again) world number one arrives here alongside the best field ever assembled for the Genesis sponsored event, the previous Northern Trust Open, Nissan Open or even the Los Angeles Open that ran here from 1926 until 1994.

After Torrey Pines a few weeks ago, this event is the first accurate guide we have for the upcoming majors, with previous Masters winners Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els and Nick Faldo on the roll-call of Riviera winners. Whilst those may be obvious as class elements, look at J.B Holmes Mike Weir and Craig Stadler as winners of both, whilst Riviera runners-up Vijay Singh, Keegan Bradley and Justin Thomas all have at least one of the four big-ones on the mantlepiece.

This is a tough gig. Narrow fairways, long greens, tough up-and-downs and the much-derided poa anna greens give away the style needed to succeed here – be an Augusta contender, or at least a major-class golfer, or don’t bother.

Main bet – Jason Day

As expected, with such a powerful field, selecting from the top 20 or so is a task. There can really be no arguing against any selection, although it could be argued that Scottie should be closer to the favourite given his seventh place here last year. That top-10, following his maiden victory at the Phoenix Open, was a pre-cursor to his second victory – at Bay Hill – and he seems to act on all grass types apart from Paspalum.

However, after considering no winner since 2018 has been lower than 50/1, it might pay to look away from those on the double-figure border.

It was a tough choice between Max Homa and Jason Day for the main bet, and they remain the two best bets on the card.

However, at double the price of the other, the Aussie gets the vote despite trailing his rival 0-6 in victories over the past four seasons.

Given his correlative form, it’s hard to fathom why the 35-year-old has such poor results around here.

Torrey Pines brings in players such as Homa, Mickelson and Holmes, and yet Day struggles to improve past a best of 62nd in five sporadic starts.

However, given notwithstanding his two victories and five top-10s at the Farmers and three top-five finishes at Augusta, recent form suggests he is well over the personal and injury problems that saw him drop from the top-50 into a ranking outside the top-150 as recently as September last year.

Since then, the 2015 PGA Championship winner has reversed the slide, going on a run of eight events that include three top-10 finishes, a further trio of top-20s and a 21st, that latest of which, a fifth place in Arizona, was his best of the year and the highest finish since last year’s Farmers.

Over the last three months, Day has ranked in the top-20 for total driving, scrambling, putting average, putting total, par-3 and par-4 performance, plenty good enough to be making a strong challenge here.

With four career wins on Poa Anna, his most successful ‘grass type’ it’s tough to see a negative in his CV for this week.

Danger – Max Homa  

Surely a major contender for one of the top PiP payouts (the ‘award’ for social media interaction and other nonsense), 32-year-old Homa is having the time of his life right now, winning five events in his last 45 starts.

Homa now comes to a track that rewards top-class tee-to-green play and about which he says, ” I know the golf course pretty well. I’ve been fortunate to play a few more times since college and it’s the grass I grew up on. Kikuyu, poa annua, it’s very, very comfortable for me.”

Playing a game he notes as “position over perfection” has served the local-born well with his last three event outings showing payout places of 10/1/5, whilst he also brings strong correlative form from both courses used for the Wells Fargo – Quail Hollow and TPC Potomac – and at Silverado, where he beat former Masters winner Danny Willett, and joined Open champion and Masters third, Stewart Cink, on the honours list.

The few events of the 2023 season see Homa’s rank 12th for total driving, 17th for approaches, 14th tee-to-green, 20th scrambling, 18th in bogey avoidance and 16th in putting average.

Whist the Arizona resident made his 11th successive cut at home last week, he has never been the most productive at the raucous venue, and this, more classic course is far more to his liking.

He’s coming down to his bottom-level price nowadays, but when the face fits, there may still be a margin there.

Outsider and Top-20 – Keegan Bradley

There was a temptation to get with tee-to-green merchant Corey Conners, especially given his three successive top-10 finishes at Augusta, but there is a reason he has missed three cuts in-a-row here and his ranking of third from bottom (129 entries) on poa anna gives it away.

Instead, trust 2011 PGA champion Keegan Bradley to make a safe run at his first top 20 here since 2015, a run of four that saw him finish runner-up, 16th, 20th and in fourth place, the first of those a three-man play-off after holing a 20-foot putt on the 72nd hole.

The 36-year-old is yet another former major winner that saw his game desert him for a period, and after just one win in nine years, found himself outside the top 100 before a revival in 2022.

Signs were there a year before when second to Sam Burns at the Valspar, although talk was again of the way he couldn’t close out a chance on the final day. However, fast-forward a few months and he ended last season inside the top-25 of the world after victory at the Zozo (beating another reborn player in Rickie Fowler) had backed up top five finishes at The Players and at the Sanderson Farms. two further top-10 finishes, inclusing at the U.S Open, confirmed that the five-time PGA Tour winner was back to his best.

2023 has been steady, with the highlight of four outings being a fast-closing runner-up to Homa at Torrey Pines where he led the putting stats, and a 20th last week at Scottsdale, having been 11th after round one.

Whilst finishes of 48th,60th and 51st around here over the last four years don’t scream out, Bradley was in third place after round one in 2019, 12th after the same 18 holes of 2021 and 14th at halfway last year.

Expect a lot better and a top-20 at the very least around a course that contributes to his ranking of 38th on these grass types.

Thomas Detry was a name to look out for given he struck the ball beautifully during the last round at Pebble but might need the sighter, whilst Sepp Straka is impossible to read but has a tendency to come from off the pace, as he did when 15th here last year (from 60th at halfway), winning at the Honda and when top-10 at Sawgrass. At around 6/1 he wouldn’t be the worst punt, but with such a strong top dozen, it’s tough to see him get there after a pair of missed cuts.

Recommended Bets:

  • Main Bet – Jason Day 
  • Danger – Max Homa 
  • Outsider – Keegan Bradley 
  • Top-20 – Keegan Bradley 
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  1. Agronomist

    Feb 14, 2023 at 5:42 pm

    Poa annua.

    Seriously?

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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