Opinion & Analysis

2023 Genesis Open: Betting Picks & Selections

Published

1 year ago

Feb 14, 2023

For the second consecutive week, the PGA Tour treats golf fans with another elevated event.

Forget the reasons the increased funds and prize-money came about, we get the cream of the crop again. As Rory McIlroy says, “When I tune into a Tampa Bay Buccaneers game, I expect to see Tom Brady throw a football. When I tune into a Formula 1 race, I expect to see Lewis Hamilton in a car.”

Following Scottie Scheffler’s very professional victory at TPC Scottsdale, the new (again) world number one arrives here alongside the best field ever assembled for the Genesis sponsored event, the previous Northern Trust Open, Nissan Open or even the Los Angeles Open that ran here from 1926 until 1994.

After Torrey Pines a few weeks ago, this event is the first accurate guide we have for the upcoming majors, with previous Masters winners Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els and Nick Faldo on the roll-call of Riviera winners. Whilst those may be obvious as class elements, look at J.B Holmes Mike Weir and Craig Stadler as winners of both, whilst Riviera runners-up Vijay Singh, Keegan Bradley and Justin Thomas all have at least one of the four big-ones on the mantlepiece.

This is a tough gig. Narrow fairways, long greens, tough up-and-downs and the much-derided poa anna greens give away the style needed to succeed here – be an Augusta contender, or at least a major-class golfer, or don’t bother.

Main bet – Jason Day

As expected, with such a powerful field, selecting from the top 20 or so is a task. There can really be no arguing against any selection, although it could be argued that Scottie should be closer to the favourite given his seventh place here last year. That top-10, following his maiden victory at the Phoenix Open, was a pre-cursor to his second victory – at Bay Hill – and he seems to act on all grass types apart from Paspalum.

However, after considering no winner since 2018 has been lower than 50/1, it might pay to look away from those on the double-figure border.

It was a tough choice between Max Homa and Jason Day for the main bet, and they remain the two best bets on the card.

However, at double the price of the other, the Aussie gets the vote despite trailing his rival 0-6 in victories over the past four seasons.

Given his correlative form, it’s hard to fathom why the 35-year-old has such poor results around here.

Torrey Pines brings in players such as Homa, Mickelson and Holmes, and yet Day struggles to improve past a best of 62nd in five sporadic starts.

However, given notwithstanding his two victories and five top-10s at the Farmers and three top-five finishes at Augusta, recent form suggests he is well over the personal and injury problems that saw him drop from the top-50 into a ranking outside the top-150 as recently as September last year.

Since then, the 2015 PGA Championship winner has reversed the slide, going on a run of eight events that include three top-10 finishes, a further trio of top-20s and a 21st, that latest of which, a fifth place in Arizona, was his best of the year and the highest finish since last year’s Farmers.

Over the last three months, Day has ranked in the top-20 for total driving, scrambling, putting average, putting total, par-3 and par-4 performance, plenty good enough to be making a strong challenge here.

With four career wins on Poa Anna, his most successful ‘grass type’ it’s tough to see a negative in his CV for this week.

Danger – Max Homa

Surely a major contender for one of the top PiP payouts (the ‘award’ for social media interaction and other nonsense), 32-year-old Homa is having the time of his life right now, winning five events in his last 45 starts.

Homa now comes to a track that rewards top-class tee-to-green play and about which he says, ” I know the golf course pretty well. I’ve been fortunate to play a few more times since college and it’s the grass I grew up on. Kikuyu, poa annua, it’s very, very comfortable for me.”

Playing a game he notes as “position over perfection” has served the local-born well with his last three event outings showing payout places of 10/1/5, whilst he also brings strong correlative form from both courses used for the Wells Fargo – Quail Hollow and TPC Potomac – and at Silverado, where he beat former Masters winner Danny Willett, and joined Open champion and Masters third, Stewart Cink, on the honours list.

The few events of the 2023 season see Homa’s rank 12th for total driving, 17th for approaches, 14th tee-to-green, 20th scrambling, 18th in bogey avoidance and 16th in putting average.

Whist the Arizona resident made his 11th successive cut at home last week, he has never been the most productive at the raucous venue, and this, more classic course is far more to his liking.

He’s coming down to his bottom-level price nowadays, but when the face fits, there may still be a margin there.

Outsider and Top-20 – Keegan Bradley

There was a temptation to get with tee-to-green merchant Corey Conners, especially given his three successive top-10 finishes at Augusta, but there is a reason he has missed three cuts in-a-row here and his ranking of third from bottom (129 entries) on poa anna gives it away.

Instead, trust 2011 PGA champion Keegan Bradley to make a safe run at his first top 20 here since 2015, a run of four that saw him finish runner-up, 16th, 20th and in fourth place, the first of those a three-man play-off after holing a 20-foot putt on the 72nd hole.

The 36-year-old is yet another former major winner that saw his game desert him for a period, and after just one win in nine years, found himself outside the top 100 before a revival in 2022.

Signs were there a year before when second to Sam Burns at the Valspar, although talk was again of the way he couldn’t close out a chance on the final day. However, fast-forward a few months and he ended last season inside the top-25 of the world after victory at the Zozo (beating another reborn player in Rickie Fowler) had backed up top five finishes at The Players and at the Sanderson Farms. two further top-10 finishes, inclusing at the U.S Open, confirmed that the five-time PGA Tour winner was back to his best.

2023 has been steady, with the highlight of four outings being a fast-closing runner-up to Homa at Torrey Pines where he led the putting stats, and a 20th last week at Scottsdale, having been 11th after round one.

Whilst finishes of 48th,60th and 51st around here over the last four years don’t scream out, Bradley was in third place after round one in 2019, 12th after the same 18 holes of 2021 and 14th at halfway last year.

Expect a lot better and a top-20 at the very least around a course that contributes to his ranking of 38th on these grass types.

Thomas Detry was a name to look out for given he struck the ball beautifully during the last round at Pebble but might need the sighter, whilst Sepp Straka is impossible to read but has a tendency to come from off the pace, as he did when 15th here last year (from 60th at halfway), winning at the Honda and when top-10 at Sawgrass. At around 6/1 he wouldn’t be the worst punt, but with such a strong top dozen, it’s tough to see him get there after a pair of missed cuts.

Recommended Bets:

Main Bet – Jason Day
Danger – Max Homa
Outsider – Keegan Bradley
Top-20 – Keegan Bradley

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

3 days ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

Published

3 days ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide.

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory.

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second.

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

Richard Bland
Jon Rahm
Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

Abraham Ancer
Graeme McDowell
Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

Bryson DeChambeau
Joaquin Niemann
Dean Burmester

Putting

Cameron Smith
Louis Oosthuizen
Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

1 week ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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