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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Outright Bets: This former major winner is ready to get back inside winner’s circle
The PGA Tour heads to Pebble Beach this week to play the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
The pro-am will return this week after nixing it last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, the tournament will return to a three-course rotation once again.
Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club will be the courses featured in the 2022 edition of the event.
The field this week is made up of 156 players including Patrick Cantlay, Phil Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, and Justin Rose.
Pebble Beach Golf Links is a par 72 measuring 6,828 yards and featuring Poa annua greens. Spyglass Hill is a par 72 measuring 7,035 yards, and Monterey Peninsula is a par 71 measuring 6,958 yards.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Outright Bets
Justin Rose (+2800)(Bet365)
I’ve been all over Justin Rose early and often during the 2022 season, and despite the fact that he hasn’t come through with a win yet, I am satisfied with the level of play. The Englishman is playing some of the best golf he has in a long time, and Pebble Beach is the perfect course for it to all come together and result in victory.
Rose has been putting very well over the past few years, but we haven’t quite seen him striking it this well from tee to green. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach in only two measured rounds at Torrey Pines which was good for fourth in the field. The 41-year-old now gets to play a short course and ranks 10th in SG: Total on par 72s under 7200 yards, making Pebble Beach and ideal fit for his current game. He comes in with some encouraging course history having finished 3rd at the 2019 US Open at Pebble Beach, and 6th at this event in 2016. This event can quickly turn into a putting contest and if it does, “Rosie” has just as good of a chance as anyone in the field.
Lanto Griffin (+5500)(Bet365)
Lanto Griffin finished in 30th place last week at Torrey Pines, but his path to that finish was more impressive than his eventual place on the leaderboard. Griffin he gained 3.5 strokes on approach in two measured rounds, and had a pedestrian putting week although he should be capable of improvement in that department this week at Pebble Beach. The most encouraging aspect of his week however, was how he finished it. The 33-year-old finished the week bu shooting a 65 at Torrey Pines and seemed to be clicking on all cylinders. Often times, we have seen a golfer who was hot finishing the week roll the momentum into the following event.
Prior to The Farmers Insurance Open, Griffin finished 3rd the previous week at The American Express which will be a somewhat similar test to what we see this week. Has gained an average of 2.2 strokes on the field from tee to green in his past five starts, and was 9th here in 2020 while gaining 3.4 strokes putting on greens that can be tricky. The course clearly fits his eye, as he ranks 4th in strokes gained total on par 72s under 7200 yards.
Matt Kuchar: (+6600)(Bet365)
Prior to the Sony Open, I wrote about how although Kuchar will struggle on most courses on Tour, he still can contend at courses that suit his game. That proved to be true as he finished in 7th place that week and gained 5.9 strokes from tee to green. Despite his lack of distance off of the tee, his accuracy with driver and strong putting makes Pebble Beach another one of his spots. The 43-year-old has proven himself to be an incredible putter on fast poana greens in both the long and short term, and ranks 6th in field in that category in his past 24 rounds. Kuchar had a solid performance at the 2019 U.S. Open hosted by Pebble Beach, finishing in 16th place. He is in the twilight of his career, but is more than capable of winning the event.
Russell Knox (+8000) (Bet365):
If Luke List showed us anything last week, it’s that a premier ball striker who historically can’t putt is always capable of breaking through. Also similar to List, Knox returns to a course that he has had excellent results at throughout his career. He doesn’t have the off the tee game that List has, but he doesn’t need it this week. He just needs to find the fairway and get dialed in with the irons, which he typically does.
The veteran struggled last week but two starts ago at the Sony Open, he finished in 7th place by gaining 5.1 strokes on approach in just two measured rounds. Knox has some encouraging course history, having finished 14th in 2019 and 15th in 2018 prior to the aforementioned 7th place finish last season.
Pebble Beach can get a bit windy, and if it does few have a bigger advantage than Knox who grew up playing in wet, chilly, coastal conditions in Scotland.
Aaron Rai (+9000) (Bet365):
Many golf fans got their first glimpse of Aaron Rai last week when he found himself in the final group at Torrey Pines. He struggled on Sunday, and ended up finishing in 6th place for the week. Despite being a relatively poor putter, Rai had a strong putting performance compared to his typical results, gaining 2.4 strokes on the field in two measured rounds. It is too soon to tell, but early signs may indicate that he may take kindly to poana greens.
Rai possesses many of the skills that are necessary to contend at a track like Pebble Beach. He is incredible at finding the fairway and isn’t very long off the tee, which won’t hurt him here. He solid on approach last week gaining 1.9 strokes on the field in two measured rounds, and Has averaged +5.3 strokes on the field per event in fairways gained in his past five events played. The 26-year-old is just about as automatic as it gets in finding the short grass off the tee. He also does a good job of hitting greens in regulation, which should come in handy on the smallest greens on Tour. In his past five starts, Rai has averaged +3.5 strokes on the field in Greens in Regulation: Gained. He sniffed contention last week which should prepare him for the nerves to come if he finds himself in the situation again. Don’t let his lack of Tour experience fool you, Rai has two impressive wins on the DP World Tour and is a high class player.
Pat Perez (+11000)(Bet365):
Pat Perez has the Pebble Beach form we are looking for this week, and came to life last week at Torrey Pines, making him a worthy long shot this week.
The 45-year-old grew up on the West Coast (Scottsdale, Arizona) and has shown comfortability in the area throughout his career. He got his first win in California back in 2009 at the Bob Hope Classic (PGA West) and has enjoyed Pebble Beach throughout his career. He finished 4th in 2015,14th in 2017, and 26th last year. Perez was extremely impressive last week finishing in 6th place and gained 5.2 strokes on approach in two measured rounds. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has produced some older winners and is probably one of the few stops on Tour where he can still actually win. Putting it well and Bermuda is his best surface. In his past 24 rounds, Perez ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast POA greens and 17th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pebble Beach.
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Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).
Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.
We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.
Check out links to all our photos below.
General Albums
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #3
WITB Albums
- Pierceson Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kris Kim – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- David Nyfjall – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Jarred Jetter – North Texas PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Richy Werenski – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Wesley Bryan – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Parker Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Peter Kuest – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Blaine Hale, Jr. – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kelly Kraft – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Rico Hoey – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Pullout Albums
- Adam Scott’s 2 new custom L.A.B. Golf putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Scotty Cameron putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Ben Griffin playing Maxfli golf ball
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
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News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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