PGA Tour pros will be traveling to Las Vegas, Nevada this week for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. This tournament was founded in 1983, and it has always been a part of the PGA Tour’s fall swing.

The event is currently held at TPC Summerlin. This tournament has typically attracted a somewhat better field than some of other other fall series events, and this year is no different. Abraham Ancer, Sam Burns, Paul Casey, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Brooks Koepka, Jason Kokrak, Hideki Matsuyama, Kevin Na, Joaquin Niemann, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, and Will Zalatoris will all be teeing it up this week at TPC Summerlin.

TPC Summerlin is a par 71, measuring 7,255 yards. It was designed in 1991 by Bobby Weed and Fuzzy Zoeller. Water comes into play on four holes. The fairways are Bermuda-grass, the rough is Bermuda-grass, measuring two inches on average, and the 7,400 square foot on average greens are Bent-grass.

TPC Summerlin is a typical TPC venue with a number of risk reward holes that tend to yield low scores from aggressive play. Similar to most courses that we see during the fall swing, TPC Summerlin is generally torn up by PGA Tour pros. Outside of a wind-swept year in 2017 where Patrick Cantlay won at nine-under par, the winning score has been 20-under or below in eight of the last ten years. TPC Summerlin has annually ranked inside the ten easiest courses on Tour for each of the last three years. Last year, players had to shoot six-under par just to make the cut.

Along with wedge play and the ability to control the occasional long iron, I am primarily looking for players that are comfortable in easy scoring conditions and have experienced success before on Bent-grass greens. I know I sound like a broken record during the fall swing, but it’s true, birdies are the name of the game in this portion of the season. It should not be overlooked that some players are more comfortable than others in a tournament where the winning score is -25.

Let’s dig into my outright selections.

Brooks Koepka (22/1, Bet365)

I do not typically pay up for elite talent on courses where putting is so important, but I feel it necessary to make an exception this week for Brooks Koepka. The four-time major championship winner appears a perfect fit for TPC Summerlin, as evidenced by fourth-place and a runner-up finishes across five appearances. His desert golf resume also includes two wins at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Over his last 36 rounds, Koepka ranks first in strokes gained off the tee, 15th in strokes gained approach, 16th in birdies or better gained, fourth in opportunities gained, and third in proximity from 100-125 yards, out of all players in this field. While typically known for his affinity for difficult courses, Koepka is downright elite at making the most out of opportunities with a scoring club in his hands. Coming off a brilliant Ryder Cup performance, expect Koepka to pick up PGA Tour win number nine in Las Vegas.

Hideki Matsuyama (30/1, FanDuel)

Speaking of desert golf resumes, Hideki Matsuyama is another player who has recorded multiple top-20 finishes at TPC Summerlin and multiple wins at TPC Scottsdale. The 2021 Masters Champion has had a bit of an up and down season after securing his first major victory, but his game finally seems to be rounding into form. In his last start at the Fortinet Championship, Matsuyama gained two strokes off the tee and 4.5 strokes on approach, en route to a sixth-place finish. The six-time PGA Tour winner was stifled from securing victory in Napa only because he lost 1.4 strokes putting. Of course, the flat-stick will always be the greatest concern with Matsuyama, but returning to Bent-grass, the same surface that he won the Masters on earlier this year, figures to yield a more inspired performance.

Matthew Wolff (45/1, FanDuel)

I have been a little more conservative in terms of taking my chances with Matthew Wolff despite his undeniable ceiling. With that being said, I was incredibly encouraged by what I saw from him last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship. The Oklahoma State product gained strokes in all four major categories for the first time since, coincidentally, his runner-up finish at this tournament last year. Wolff’s statistical profile has been checkered with inconsistencies throughout the entirety of the 2020-2021 season, so the fact that he has finally returned to a positive baseline figures to be an indicator that his game is rounding into form. Now he returns to a course that he has already recorded an 18th place-finish and a runner-up. I expect him to continue his strong play in the desert.

Talor Gooch (80/1, FanDuel)

I always find myself higher on Talor Gooch than the market, and this week is no different. The Oklahoma State product enters this tournament on the back of a fourth-place finish at the Fortinet Championship where he gained 0.7 strokes off the tee, 2.6 strokes on approach, 5.5 strokes around the green, and 1.9 strokes putting. As previously alluded to in my argument for Matthew Wolff, I love when players are gaining strokes in all four major categories. It displays a high baseline level of consistency that is hard to find on the PGA Tour. Now Gooch returns to Las Vegas, where he finished top-five last October at the CJ Cup, and bent-grass greens, which has historically been a preferred putting surface for the Oklahoma native. 80/1 feels a fair price for a player primed for a major breakthrough.

Hank Lebioda (250/1, BetMGM)

Let’s travel back to August, when Hank Lebioda was a popular selection at prices as low as 60/1. Since his summer string of three consecutive top-eight finishes at the Travelers Championship, the Rocket Mortgage, and the John Deere Classic, which were all Bent-grass birdie-fests for those keeping track at home, the Florida State product has cooled considerably with three consecutive missed cuts. Yet on deeper inspection, Lebioda’s game is on the upswing. In his last start, the Florida native missed the cut on the number at the Fortinet Championship, while gaining 3.9 strokes on approach, good for his best iron week in nearly five months. Now he returns to another course that features bent-grass greens, where birdies are the price of admission. I will gladly buy low on a player that has contended over the weekend in three of last six starts.