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Redkacheek’s DFS Rundown: 2019 CIMB Classic

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The CIMB Classic is the first of three events that will take place in Asia, and what that means for us in our DFS and golf betting research is that we have no ShotLink data to go off of. So, it is back to the basics of evaluating the scorecard, yardage, and the traditional accuracy/distance stats: GIR, driving accuracy, and driving distance.

I personally like this type of event because many people will be looking for hard-coded answers to who to play and it will be a huge advantage to understand what kind of traditional stats to look for and how that can be translated from prior events (advanced stats), including last week’s Safeway Open.

This event will be a limited field, about 78 players, with no cut. This may be surprising, but for most PGA Tour pros, traveling to Malaysia is a bit of an expensive endeavor to not be guaranteed a check. I am not sure I totally agree with that since it is already a limited field, but we will deal with what cards we are dealt. In other words, this is another tournament you should try to play light and preferably try to limit your exposure to cash games. Depending on the prize pools that are offered, I will probably do some of the MME GPPs, perhaps mixed with some single-entry or 3-max tournaments.

The CIMB Classic will take place at TPC Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. Interestingly enough, Kuala Lumpur translates to “Muddy Confluence,” as it receives about 100 in. of rainfall annually. This course is easy. This course is easy. No, that is not a typing error, this course is so easy it deserved to be pointed out twice. Why so easy? TPC Kuala Lumpur plays just over 7,000 yards at a par of 72. As shown below, it averaged 1.33 shots under par for 2018 (also -1.7 in 2017) and only 18 players finished the tournament at even par or worse last year.

Pat Perez won last year’s event, finishing at 24 under with 27 birdies and only three bogeys. Justin Thomas won in 2017 at 23 under with 29 birdies. First off, these are two drastically different types of players but both with success here. To further elaborate, this course gave up an average of 4.16 birdies per round, which ranked 45th most difficult out of 51 events last year. This is where we will find the first stats to target this week: birdies-or-better gained or DK points, or perhaps both.

This course has a good balance of short and long par 4s but the one type of hole that stands out to me is the par 5s. The par 5s played 1.5 shots under par each day and that is huge considering the average birdies each round was 4.16. So guys that take advantage of the par 5s will be gaining one to two shots per day on the field. Pat Perez birdied the par 5s nine times (16 attempts) last year and Justin Thomas birdied eight in 2017’s event. Suffice it to say, par-5 scoring will also be a key this week.

What else is there to this course? Well there isn’t a whole lot, to be honest. I think looking at recent form is going to be huge and even eyeing results from the two previous years has shown valuable but TPC Kuala Lumpur is a scorer’s delight and no one stat will lead us to the promised land. Driving distance has not shown to be corollary, so that won’t be beneficial, but I think overall ball striking and looking for strong strokes gained numbers in the past month will be the key to building strong lineups.

With all that out of the way, let’s get into my core plays for this week.

Paul Casey (DK $10,200)

So there is a guy up top named Justin Thomas…I think he is a phenomenal play (he has won here twice and finished 17th last year) but in my limited lineups this week, he will not make the cut. Paul Casey will be the man I will ride with as my most expensive player this week. His best finish at this event came last year where he finished seventh, and with his strong finish during the FedEx Cup Playoffs, I am putting a good bit of faith in Paul Casey’s ball striking skills to continue his strong play. To cap off his 2018 season, Paul gained 5.3 shots T2G at the Dell Championship and then 3.3 SG:T2G at the Tour Championship. This should be a great setup for PC this week.

Rafa Caberera Bello (DK $9,200)

This limited field has kind of led me to a slightly more ownership-focused build. I think in the $9k range, most people will look to Keegan Bradley or Gary Woodland. While I do not think those are bad plays, I think Rafa adds some nice upside with quite a lot of consistency. Rafa finished 10th here the last two years and has the game to really excel on this course again. In the last 24 rounds Rafa has played, he ranks ninth in birdies-or-better and 13th in GIR percentage. We haven’t seen much of Rafa in the past month but he is a world-class player and should pop right back into form this week.

C.T. Pan (DK $8,000)

C.T. Pan will be someone I will look to have in all of my lineups this week. Again, this is a limited field event with no cut and it will be very important to make stands, whether 100 percent locks or complete fades, and C.T. is someone that fits this course quite well. He ranks top 13 in most of my key stats for TPC Kuala Lumpur including SG:T2G, SG:APP, DA percentage, GIR percentage and SG:Total over the past three months. This course is just over 7,000 yards so even with the large amount of rain expected to dump in Malaysia this week, I think he can certainly manage this course with his shorter length.

Sam Ryder (DK $7,700)

Kind of like C.T. Pan above, Sam ranks out so well this week in my key stats and also with his strong showing last week in Napa, California, that I just cannot overlook him here in this field. Sam is my second overall ranked player this week in key stats rating top five in all by driving accuracy, which was pretty forgiving last year. I think some people may have differing views but I see Sam continuing his strong play even with a very, very long flight from California to Malaysia. At $7,700, I think Sam has a really superb chance of paying off his price and even contending for the win again this week.

Andrew Putnam (DK $6,900)

People may have forgotten about Andrew Putnam but this kid is so solid. He finished the year with six-straight made cuts including a 16th, first, and an eighth. He has never played this course/event but looking at the course setup, I can see Andrew having a really good week. Since April this year, Andrew lost strokes T2G only fou times. Overall, I think he has a ton of appeal on this course this week but at $6,900 and overlooked (sub five percent) he may be another one I lock in at 100 percent.

Also consider

Justin Thomas
Ryan Moore
Keegan Bradley
Gary Woodland
Louis Oosthuizen
Kevin Na
Kevin Tway
Austin Cook
Anirban Lahiri

Good luck this week everyone!

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I am ranked in the Top 35 of all DFS Golf players and best known for winning the DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest during the week of The Masters earlier this year. I am very active around the community, always willing to help whether with strategy or research and you can find me on Twitter @Redkacheek and also each week on the Fantasy Golf Bag Podcast. One last note, my history is in professional golf, which definitely adds a unique perspective to DFS that most people do not have and you will find really gives you an edge when evaluating players each week.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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