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Fantasy Preview: 2018 U.S. Open Championship

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The year’s second major is upon us as we head to New York for the 118th U.S. Open Championship. New look Shinnecock Hills will play host to what is often the toughest test of the year. What will greet the 156 players in the field this week will be a firm and fast golf course that will play very long. At over 7,400 yards, Shinnecock Hills will prove a daunting prospect to the players, and the fact that it’s a par-70 will make things even tougher for the elite field.

An exposed golf course, wind could play a significant factor this week (although the forecast suggests it shouldn’t do so). Shinnecock Hills last hosted the U.S. Open back in 2004, where Retief Goosen triumphed and only two players finished under par for the week. Length, ball striking, approach play and greens in regulation will all be vitally important this week, and as always at this championship, the ability to hole clutch par putts will be significant. Last year, Brooks Koepka won his first major at Erin Hills, posting 17-under par for the week to win by four strokes. Don’t expect any numbers like that this week.

Selected Tournament Odds (via Bet365)

  • Dustin Johnson 8/1
  • Rory McIlroy 14/1
  • Justin Rose 16/1
  • Justin Thomas 16/1
  • Rickie Fowler 16/1
  • Jason Day 18/1
  • Jordan Spieth 18/1

Ten years on from one of Tiger’s most incredible achievements, which saw him triumph against all the odds on one leg, Woods returns to this year’s U.S. Open still in search of his elusive 15th major. Do I think Woods can win at Shinnecock Hills? Absolutely. His iron play currently is electric. Over the past 12 rounds, Woods ranks first for Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green, fifth in Ball Striking and fourth in Strokes Gained-Tee to Green.

Many detractors will point to his putting woes of late, but that is the one part of a player’s game that is most liable to change in a short space of time. Proof of this was at The Players Championship in between Woods’ two poor putting weeks, an event where Woods finished in the top-20 for Strokes Gained-Putting. He led the field at the Memorial tee to green, and with slightly wider fairways than usual at a U.S. Open, there is no doubt that Woods is a contender this week. As is usually the case with Woods, however, not much value is offered at his price.

Still, let’s enjoy the moment of where we find Woods and his game compared to the last few U.S. Opens.

With a 156-man field and only the top-60 and ties making it through to the weekend, there is an even greater demand and reward on building a lineup capable of making it through all four days. It’s safe to say that if you can get all your players through to the weekend, then you’re looking at a very successful week. For that reason, Dustin Johnson (9/1, DK Price $11,700) is the man to lean on with your DraftKings lineup despite his skinny betting odds. Form-wise, what is there to say? He just lapped the field at the FedEx St. Jude Classic in Memphis with consummate ease to reclaim the No. 1 spot in the Official World Golf Rankings, and the big man hasn’t finished outside the top-20 in an event all year.

Over his previous 12 rounds, Johnson ranks first in Ball Striking and Strokes Gained-Total and second in Strokes Gained-Tee to Green. He hasn’t missed a cut in 12 months, and Shinnecock Hills should be a golf course that suits his game. For his last 36 rounds on courses measuring greater than 7,400 yards, Johnson ranks second for Strokes Gained-Total, and there was a sense with his victory last week that there is still more to come. Despite U.S. Opens often exposing even the best players in the world, Johnson is the only man in the field that I would genuinely be shocked to see not make the cut. Many see him as a virtual lock to be in contention come Sunday, and I agree. Bite the bullet with his salary.

With a win and four other top-20 finishes in 2018, Paul Casey’s (50/1, DK Price $8,000) level of play has been consistently good all year. The Englishman has the game capable of competing at Shinnecock Hills with his excellent ball striking as his primary asset. Over his last 12 rounds, Casey sits 10th in Ball Striking, 15th in Strokes Gained-Tee to Green and 14th for Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green. Even his putting, which has often been his nemesis, has looked good recently. He ranks a solid 14th in Strokes Gained-Putting over the same period.

Casey has made the cut in four of his last five U.S. Opens, and he will be aiming for more than just making the weekend as he enters this event playing some of the best golf of his career. In his last outing on the PGA Tour, he recorded a top-5 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship and backed that up with a top-20 finish at the BMW PGA Championship. In an event where steady and consistent ball striking is vitally important, Casey looks a safe bet to add to your lineups.

Speaking of consistency, Matt Kuchar (80/1, DK Price $7,600) has now made 30 of his last 31 cuts on Tour. It’s a remarkable statistic and one that I expect to improve to 31/32 after this week. Despite this, Kuchar has had a quiet year by his standards, but he appears to be trending upward right now. Over his previous eight rounds, Kuchar ranks 15th for Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green and for the season is T-19 for Par 4 Scoring Average, an encouraging sign for tackling a course with as many as 12 par 4s.

The main reason I think Kuchar is such a good play for DraftKings lineups this week, along with his regularity at making cuts, is his price. At $7,600, Kuchar is the same price as Keegan Bradley (who incidentally I feel could also play well this week), yet the disparity in their betting odds is vast with Kuchar priced at 80/1 compared to Bradley’s 150/1. Kuchar is undoubtedly undervalued in the DraftKings market and looks a great play this week as he comes to Shinnecock Hills having made his last eight U.S. Open cuts.

Finally, deviating away from consistency and looking for cheap boom-or-bust potential, the enigmatic Si-Woo Kim (150/1, DK Price $7,000) seems an exciting prospect at his second U.S Open. Kim has made his last six cuts on Tour. Among these events was a runner-up finish at The Heritage, which he really should have won, and a top-25 at the Masters.

Statistically, Kim doesn’t show anything truly spectacular, although the Korean ranks a steady 22nd for Strokes Gained-Off the Tee, which should bode well on such a long golf course. Kim also plays tough golf courses well. Along with his runner-up at The Heritage, he has won The Players Championship, and at last year’s U.S. Open he entered the final round in sixth place before a poor Sunday dropped him back to T-13. At a very cheap price and the mercurial potential to find form in big events, Si-Woo Kim makes for an attractive play this week.

Recommended Bets

  • Dustin Johnson 9/1, DK Price $11,700
  • Paul Casey 50/1, DK Price $8,000
  • Matt Kuchar 80/1, DK Price $7,600
  • Si-Woo Kim 150/1, DK Price $7,000
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Gianni is the Managing Editor at GolfWRX. He can be contacted at [email protected].

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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