Opinion & Analysis
A Statistical Analysis of 2016 U.S. Ryder Cup Prospects
With the PGA Tour’s season one-third of the way complete, I wanted to examine the potential Ryder Cup players for the U.S. Team and see how they are performing.
Agent to the European stars, Chubby Chandler, recently discussed how the European Team used advanced analytics to its advantage in winning the last Ryder Cup. Future analysis will dive more into optimal pairings based on the data. But for now, I will examine individual performances and keep in mind that the data shows that players with good short games tend to make the better performers in the Ryder Cup.
Jordan Spieth is not as sharp as he was at this time last year, but it’s mainly due to his iron play. Typically, Spieth’s iron play has been stronger than his driving, but this year it’s more of the opposite.
Bubba Watson has already won this year at Riviera. And performance at Riviera tends to have a correlation to performance at The Masters. While Bubba has driven the ball great, it’s been a down year by his standards, because he typically blows out the rest of the Tour when it comes to Driving Effectiveness in the first third of the season. Like Spieth, he’s still a fantastic performer, but he’s not quite hitting the lick by his standards.
Dustin Johnson’s problem has been consistency with the driver. When he’s on, he looks like the reincarnation of Jack Nicklaus off the tee. But when he’s off, he’s well off. I wonder if trying to round out the other parts of his game that have been traditionally weak (Green Zone Play and Short Game Play) has caused him to spend less time working on his driving. With that being said, if his Short Game Play legitimately improves he will be a better Ryder Cup player. Right now, he’s a more well-rounded golfer than he has ever been in his career.
What prevents Rickie Fowler from being a clearly established member of The Big Four is he cannot quite put everything together. He has great strengths, but usually has one outstanding weakness that prevents him from winning more often. This season it has been Yellow Zone Play, which is mostly due to him being the 2nd worst player from 125-150 yards on Tour. However, he has also improved his short game by leaps and bounds, and that will likely make him a more effective Ryder Cupper. And in the grand scheme of things, poor performance from 125-150 yards is not a big factor on the PGA Tour, since so few shots are hit from that distance per round.
Brandt Snedeker has been hot or cold this season. It’s likely that he will still secure a Ryder Cup spot, but he may be a difficult player to use in the Foursomes (alternate shot) format because his Driving and Red Zone Play has been poor.
Typically, Snedeker has been a serviceable driver of the ball. His Red Zone Play has been a weak spot, but he makes it up with his performance from 175 yards and in. The key in using Snedeker in the Foursomes format would be to find a player who is a good iron player, particular from out of the rough, and has a good short game to counter Snedeker’s weaknesses off the tee and from the Red Zone. Otherwise, he looks like he should be reserved to playing in the Four-Ball (best score) format.
He’s not your Father’s Phil Mickelson this season. He’s actually hit the driver quite effectively off the tee, but has been an above average iron player overall. This may make him a better teammate in the Foursome format, which has never been Lefty’s strength in the Ryder Cup. And having the versatility to play either format makes for better odds of the U.S. snapping the losing streak.
Zach Johnson has had a sub-standard season (for him) thus far, and it shows with his rankings in the performance metrics. And he just turned 40, which is when most Tour players start to make a large regression in performance. Thus, he could turn into a player who does not even make the top-12 in the Ryder Cup standings when all is said and done. However, Johnson has been a solid Ryder Cup player, and when he’s playing reasonably well he has a game that is a good fit for the Ryder Cup. I would not count Johnson out for the rest of the season, and even so, I would be more apt to want him to be a captain’s pick if available. He just had a good finish at Bay Hill and made it to the Round of 16 in the WGC-Dell Match Play, so he may start hitting his stride soon.
I learned a while ago that it’s an exercise in futility in examining Patrick Reed’s metrics for the entire season. Simply put, if he is playing average or less than average by Friday, he seems to tune out for the rest of the event and that kills his metrics. But if he starts getting into contention by Friday, he can perform with the best of them.
The good news is that Reed’s Driving Effectiveness is better than it has been over the years. And if there has been a clearly defined strength to Reed’s game, it has been his putting and his short game, which make him a great teammate to have in both the Foursomes and Four-Ball formats.
Bill Haas projects to being a great Ryder Cupper because he is normally a great driver and short-game performer, although he struggles a bit with the irons and is inconsistent with the putter. Still, he can be valuable because of his short game and his driving.
The U.S. has struggled mostly in the Foursomes format, and Haas makes for a better Foursomes performer than a Four-Ball performer (he’s only average in Birdie Percentage). Haas may be best paired with a good ball striker: someone who hits the driver well enough to make his iron shots easier, and somebody who can hit the irons close enough to take advantage of his driving. Haas’ partner can be confident enough to know that if he misses an approach shot, Haas’ short game is good enough to save par.
It will be interesting to see if Haas’ driving comes around as the season progresses. If it does, he could be in for a quality season, and based off his President’s Cup performance, he could be a great Captain’s pick.
Last year, Brooks Koepka was a great driver of the ball who hit it massively long and was also a great putter. That’s a great combination, because power off the tee has its greatest impact on putting. That’s why long hitters can be successful on the PGA Tour despite being weak putters. And when you have a player as long as Koepka off the tee, who also putts well, he can easily rack up wins.
This season, Koepka just has yet to strike the ball well for any length of time, and has also not been a good short-game performer. I still would not mind seeing him on the team, though.
One of my favorite teams was the 2008 U.S. Ryder Cup squad, when Paul Azinger paired J.B. Holmes with Boo Weekley in the Four-Ball format. Weekly hits it fairly long, and was one of the best drivers on Tour at the time. He would tee off first and would continually hit 300-yard drives right down the middle. Once Weekley hit his drive and was fine, Holmes would step up to the tee and swing for the fences. Holmes routinely hit 375+ yard drives, so if his drive was playable it was a huge advantage for the U.S. Team. And with Weekley’s excellent driving, the pair had almost nothing to lose.
I can see Koepka taking over J.B. Holmes’ role and being more effective, because he’s a much better putter than Holmes.
Jason Dufner’s game over the years has been that of an excellent driver of the ball, an average iron player and a great short-game player who struggles with his putter. This still makes him a quality Ryder Cup prospect, because the team can use a player who drives it well and has a great short game in the Foursome format. And Dufner makes enough birdies to be effective in the Four-Ball format.
This season Dufner’s short game has regressed, although he has not played in a lot of events and that could change quickly. His iron play has improved a little and his driving has slightly regressed.
At this point, I think Kevin Kisner is a player that U.S. Ryder Cup team must have. He does everything fairly well, he’s young, he has a better-than-average short game for his career and makes a lot of birdies (5th). He should be able to perform well in both the Four-Ball and Foursomes formats. If he doesn’t in this year’s Ryder Cup, he projects to be a valuable prospect in future Ryder Cups, and therefore could use the experience.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again
After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.
Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.
Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”
Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.
“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.
Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.
“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”
“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”
As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.
In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.
“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”
Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.
Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:
Fairways Hit
1.) Louis Oosthuizen
2.) Anirban Lahiri
3.) Jon Rahm
4.) Brendan Steele
5.) Cameron Tringale
Greens in Regulation
1.) Brooks Koepka
2.) Brendan Steele
3.) Dean Burmester
4.) Cameron Tringale
5.) Anirban Lahiri
Birdies Made
1.) Brendan Steele
2.) Dean Burmester
3.) Thomas Pieters
4.) Patrick Reed
5.) Carlos Ortiz
LIV Golf Individual Standings:
1.) Joaquin Niemann
2.) Jon Rahm
3.) Dean Burmester
4.) Louis Oosthuizen
5.) Abraham Ancer
LIV Golf Team Standings:
1.) Crushers
2.) Legion XIII
3.) Torque
4.) Stinger GC
5.) Ripper GC
LIV Golf Singapore Picks
Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)
Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.
This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.
Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)
Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.
This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.
It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.
Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)
Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.
Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.
Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.
Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)
Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.
Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.
If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.
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Opinion & Analysis
Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America
In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.
While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.
Here are some of my key takeaways.
Method Teacher
It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.
Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.
The Cult of Stack and Jilt
The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”
Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.
These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.
Fooled by Randomness
In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.
Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.
Practice
One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”
Sunk Cost
The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.
Cliches
Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.
The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.
This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview
The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.
TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.
Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.
However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.
Past Winners at TPC Louisiana
- 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
- 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
- 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
- 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
- 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
- 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)
2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks
Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)
Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.
This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.
McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.
Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)
Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.
Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.
Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)
Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.
NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.
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Phil
Mar 30, 2016 at 1:49 pm
I can’t see Dufner sticking in the rankings to make the team. Who would be your top 2-3 picks to replace him? Jimmy Walker has been playing a bit better. I got to think he will be a captains pick if he doesn’t make it on points.
Richie Hunt
Mar 30, 2016 at 3:41 pm
I could see Jimmy Walker (7th in Adjusted Scoring Average) replacing him. The issue for Walker is that he usually plays his best in the first half of the season and he’s 18th in RC points. So, if he doesn’t pick it up soon, he may be headed into the second half of the season without enough points. He might get a pick because he’s Walker and played in the RC before. I’d rather check out his numbers on bentgrass and see if he’s a guy worth taking.
I could also see Justin Thomas, JB Holmes, Billy Horschel and if I had to take a long shot, I would say Kevin Chappell, Kevin Na (who I think would be a great RC’er) and Smylie Kaufman.
cody
Mar 29, 2016 at 2:36 pm
another US heartbreak on the way.
slider
Mar 29, 2016 at 2:24 pm
i hope dufner and kisner make the team
DL3
Mar 29, 2016 at 9:16 am
Patrick Reed should be an automatic out. Giving up if you are not in contention after Friday is just lazy.
INDEX FINGER TO MOUTH
Mar 29, 2016 at 10:36 am
SHHHHHHHHHH…
Eddie
Mar 29, 2016 at 11:41 am
He is the best match play player the US has. He is like our version of Ian Poulter.
Jam
Mar 29, 2016 at 12:09 pm
Seriously, haters are going to hate no matter what, but I would take 12 Patrick Reed’s on the team. It doesn’t mean I love the guy or would ever want to be around him, but I respect his ability to clutch up and make putts. We only have a few guys like him.