Opinion & Analysis
Are PGA Tour players too conservative when they lay up?
Editor’s Note: This is an excerpt from Rich Hunt’s 2015 Pro Golf Synopsis, which can be purchased here for $10. Stylistic changes were made to the story for online publication.
Last year, I wrote an article Study: Why do Tour players make more par putts than birdie putts? examining the phenomenon of “loss aversion” with putting. This was based on a study conducted and published in February 2011 in the American Economic Review by authors Devin Pope and Maurice Schweitzer titled Is Tiger Woods Loss Averse? Persistent Bias in the Face of Experience, Competition, and High Stake.
Loss aversion is an economics term, but in golf it refers to players who have more of a bias toward avoiding bogey than they do toward making a birdie. Pope and Schweitzer came to the conclusion that loss aversion exists on the PGA Tour through the following findings in their study:
1) The vast majority of golfers on Tour make a higher percentage of par or worse putts than birdie putts from the same distance.
For example, a Tour player may make 50 percent of all of their putts from 7-feet. But, when examining the data they may make 45 percent of their birdie putts from that distance and 55 percent of their par putts from that distance.
2) Tour players miss a much higher percentage of their birdie putts short of the hole, and therefore their par putt misses are more likely to miss long of the hole.
This lends credence to their theory of loss aversion, as they believed that the mentality of a loss aversion player was to not hit the ball too hard on their birdie putt so they would not potentially leave themselves with a longer comeback putt.
3) Tour players not only miss fewer birdie putts later in an event, but a lower percentage of their birdie misses end up short of the cup later in the event.
Let’s imagine we have the player who makes 15 percent of his birdie putts from 15 feet and in during Round 1. Furthermore, he leaves them short 40 percent of the time in Round 1. Pope and Schweitzer noticed that in Round 2 the player is more likely to increase his make percentage on birdie putts from 15 feet (we’ll say 20 percent) and leave a smaller percentage of those missed birdie putts short of the hole (we’ll say 30 percent). The same trend is likely to happen in Round 3 (i.e. making 25 percent of the putts and leaving 25 percent of the misses short of the hole) as well as Round 3 (i.e. 30 percent made putts, 20 percent of misses left short).
Pope and Schweitzer believed that this further substantiated their claim. They surmised that as the event progresses, not making a birdie putt in Round 4 had a similar effect to missing a par-save in Round 1. Thus, the player developed a bias to not lose strokes to the field and they started to make more birdie putts and leave less of their misses short of the hole as the event went along.
Can similar conclusions be made about when players lay up?
I perform statistical consulting for players, coaches and caddies on Tour each week. Part of my consultation service includes examining holes on the course and how the players have played those holes in previous seasons. After performing this service for a couple of seasons, I started to notice some similar traits when Tour players had to lay up, either off the tee or on the second shot on a Par-5, as I saw when players were demonstrating loss aversion on the putting green.
I will determine where the best lay-up distance (and at times, location) is for a player based on previous data. One of the very first factors I found on lay-ups is that distance to the hole is generally the most important factor when it comes to playing the numbers for an ideal lay-up range. Obviously, a player does not want to lay-up to an ideal distance but be hitting from a fairway bunker or even the rough. But in general, that is a small issue since if a Tour player is laying up off the tee, he is most likely to find the fairway since the lay-up shot is usually a short shot that is easy to execute. And rarely have I come across a situation where laying-up to one side of the fairway was statistically better than laying-up to another side of the fairway provided the following approach shot is from the same distance.
Another factor is that rarely is being closer to the hole off a lay-up disadvantageous to a Tour player. If a player can have a fairway shot from 50 yards to the hole, it is almost always better than a fairway shot from 75 yards to the hole. There is a bit of a myth that laying up to one’s “money yardage” is better than having a significantly closer shot (20 yards or more) on Tour. Tour players rarely have an issue with half-swing wedges over longer, full-swing wedge shots. The only issue with hitting a lay-up shot closer to the hole is on the lay-up shot itself. The lay-up shot is now longer and it increases that lay-up shot’s level of difficulty.
I determined ideal lay-up ranges based on historical data and how close to the hole the subsequent approach shot was hit to the hole. For example, there may be a par-5 where the lay-up shots were hit to 70 to 130 yards. I may break down the information and see that from 70-90 yards, the subsequent shot was hit to a median value of 13.2 feet to the hole. Shots from 90-100 yards were hit to a median value of 17.5 feet to the hole and from 100-110 yards those shots were hit to a median value of 19.8 feet to the hole. Therefore, the ideal lay-up range on this particular hole would be to 70-90 yards to the hole.
Over time, I saw that not only did my own clients continue to miss these ideal lay-up ranges, but the field as a whole missed these ideal lay-up ranges the vast majority of the time. And the misses were almost all short of the ideal range, just like with Birdie Putts missing short of the hole.
PGA Tour tournament study: Lay ups
I wanted to see how big of a problem missing these lay-up shots short of the ideal range was on Tour. I examined a variety of Par-4s and Par-5s where lay-up shots were more likely to happen. I feel that the Par-4 lay-up holes are more telling because players are hitting from a perfect lie and everybody is hitting from the same distance. I discarded players on Par-5s that either hit a terrible drive and had a statistically significant farther distance to the lay-up range than the rest of the field, or if they were hitting a shot out of a fairway bunker or an area that is known for having a bad lie. I also discarded terrible lay-up shots that ended up outside the first cut of rough or in another fairway bunker, the water, trees, etc.
Hole No. 4, Pebble Beach: 331 yards, Par-4
One of the things that was noticeable and needed to be taken into account was that the players who made the cut, but finished in the bottom-10, had a higher percentage of finding the ideal lay-up range. It is apparent that those who barely make the cut or fall back on Sunday decide to be more aggressive because they have little to lose. It could be argued that this skews the data. But the other thing that I started to find interesting was the players who finished in the top-10 were finding the ideal lay-up range more often than the rest of the field.
Hole No. 1, PGA National: 365 yards, Par-4
The ideal lay-up range is large on this hole. It’s shown between the yellow lines (40 yards long). Despite the size of this lay-up range, only 28 percent of the field found it. But the top-10 finishers still hit the ideal lay-up range more often than the non-bottom 10 finishers.
Hole No. 3, TPC Southwinds: 554 yards, Par-5
Here we see the top-10 finishers were hitting the ideal lay-up range more than the bottom-10 players. This is because this is a reachable par-5, so the “what do we have to lose” mentality was directed toward going for the green in two instead of laying up.
Conclusions
These were just a few examples of the holes I analyzed. The rest of the holes I analyzed followed the same pattern of the field missing short of the ideal lay-up range the majority of the time and the top-10 finishers finding the ideal lay-up range more often than the rest of the field. I believe that this analysis shows an indication of players being loss averse on lay-up shots.
I can concede the potential flaws in this study, such as a player may erroneously determine an ideal lay-up range that is different from the actual ideal lay-up range. For instance, the ideal lay-up range on hole No. 9 at Harbour Town is to 80-105 yards and a player may believe that it should be to 105-125 yards. However, if that is the case then we could argue that this is still an indication of loss aversion as they are choosing an ideal lay-up range that is short of the actual ideal lay-up range.
The study does show two important findings.
- The top-10 finishers hit the actual ideal lay-up range more often when they lay-up than the rest of the field. This indicates that the top-10 finishers were less loss averse that week.
- When looking at the lay-up data and the putting data, there were two players that stood out as a combination of being the least loss averse: Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth.
At the very least, these studies should make golfers question just how much loss aversion plays a role in their performance. For example, we have always heard the old adage of “take an extra club on approach shots because you are more likely to miss short of the hole than long of the hole.” Perhaps that is another instance of loss aversion affecting a golfer’s performance.
I also have to wonder if McIlroy and Spieth have a different view of golf than most everybody else. Perhaps they are thinking more about accumulating good golf shots in a round instead of focusing on avoiding bad golf shots. And maybe the golf world has to change its outlook on golf, choosing an offensive instead of defensive mindset in order to break the barriers Spieth and McIlroy have in recent years.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again
After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.
Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.
Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”
Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.
“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.
Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.
“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”
“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”
As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.
In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.
“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”
Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.
Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:
Fairways Hit
1.) Louis Oosthuizen
2.) Anirban Lahiri
3.) Jon Rahm
4.) Brendan Steele
5.) Cameron Tringale
Greens in Regulation
1.) Brooks Koepka
2.) Brendan Steele
3.) Dean Burmester
4.) Cameron Tringale
5.) Anirban Lahiri
Birdies Made
1.) Brendan Steele
2.) Dean Burmester
3.) Thomas Pieters
4.) Patrick Reed
5.) Carlos Ortiz
LIV Golf Individual Standings:
1.) Joaquin Niemann
2.) Jon Rahm
3.) Dean Burmester
4.) Louis Oosthuizen
5.) Abraham Ancer
LIV Golf Team Standings:
1.) Crushers
2.) Legion XIII
3.) Torque
4.) Stinger GC
5.) Ripper GC
LIV Golf Singapore Picks
Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)
Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.
This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.
Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)
Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.
This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.
It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.
Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)
Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.
Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.
Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.
Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)
Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.
Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.
If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.
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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.
While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.
Here are some of my key takeaways.
Method Teacher
It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.
Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.
The Cult of Stack and Jilt
The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”
Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.
These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.
Fooled by Randomness
In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.
Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.
Practice
One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”
Sunk Cost
The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.
Cliches
Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.
The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.
This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…
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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.
TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.
Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.
However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.
Past Winners at TPC Louisiana
- 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
- 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
- 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
- 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
- 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
- 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)
2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks
Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)
Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.
This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.
McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.
Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)
Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.
Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.
Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)
Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.
NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.
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binu
Feb 11, 2016 at 11:36 pm
The pros play the percentage shot most of the time unless there is something on the line (etc – final round on the back nine). These guys are all number crunching machines for the most part.
David Ober
Feb 5, 2016 at 10:40 am
I’ve often heard you remark that “closer is better” for the pros, but I’m more interested in the times when it is not. When greens get extremely firm and downwind, I’ve always wondered how many pros would chose a 30 – 40 yard shot over an 80 yard shot to a front pin cut over a bunker on a downwind firm green.
My guess is very few. I’d be interested to know the average strokes to get down from both positions over a large sample, but the types of pin positions I’m talking about are very particular, but they do occur with regularity in tournaments where the greens are very, very firm.
Richie Hunt
Feb 10, 2016 at 4:50 pm
David – The most common instance I have found when it is better to lay-back more is on back pin locations. There’s a variety of reasons that can account for this. On Par-5’s, one of the common issues is the bunker shots. For Tour players, they are fairly competent and better off with a bunker shot from 25 yards and in than they would be to lay-up to their ‘money yardage.’ But once they get outside of 25-yards with a bunker shot…they would be better off laying-up. The performance drops dramatically once outside 25-yards. So, if you have a large green and the pin location is in back, you may find a greenside bunker where you have a bunker shot longer than 25-yards. However, if the pin was in front or the middle and you were in that bunker, the bunker shot could likely be less than 25-yards.
#10 at Riviera is another example. That’s more about getting the ball to hold onto the green. That’s a quirky hole and a Tour player can hit driver to that back pin location at get blocked off by the left greenside bunker or find the right greenside bunker which is usually jail. But, if they lay-up, they can have a wedge into the hole and generate more spin to get the ball to hold.
#17 at Scottsdale is better to lay-up on that back pin location as well. That’s more of an angle issue. I wouldn’t lay-up too far back. It’s more about trying to get as close to the green as you can without reaching the green because it’s too small of a landing area once you get to the green in order to put yourself in good position to get to that back pin location.
John
Feb 4, 2016 at 12:23 pm
Really interesting article Richie! I know I am guilty of this. I don’t like laying up because I feel defensive. Whenever I hit a lay up shot, I feel like I am trying to steer the ball and not hit a bad one. When I get the chance to attack my attitude and focus are better. I think there is absolutely something to the “loss aversion” idea. As you pointed out, it can be seen with par putts and birdie putts, and I think you could also find it with chips and pitches. I would be interested to see if the pros get up and down from say 30-40 yards more often for birdie on a par 5 or up and down for par on a par 4 from the same distance.
Alex
Feb 4, 2016 at 8:19 am
If a PGA Tour pro thinks he’s got to lay up, then he’s got to lay up.
Tour pros make more par putts than birdie putts. And so do single digit amateurs. It’s the nature of the game. I’ve played the game for over 30 years and it’s always been so. I don’t think a statistics guru must say so.
emb
Feb 3, 2016 at 10:55 pm
While I love reading your articles on statistics and find golf stats to be particularly interesting, I just can’t agree with the findings of this article when the top 10 players % of laying up to “ideal” yardage ranges from 37-54%. Yes, it may be higher than the non top/bottom 10 finishing players but, when only roughly 4 of the top 10 players are hitting the ideal yardages does that really translate into a quantifiable performance difference? Half or more of the top 10 aren’t hitting the ideal range either and they’re doing just fine.
Other Paul
Feb 3, 2016 at 8:28 pm
Im pretty sure i almost never lay up, unless its an accident. I live by the driver and die by it to.
Double Mocha Man
Feb 3, 2016 at 4:12 pm
I’m going to play two rounds of golf in the next two days. On the first day I’m going to be daring and go for par 5 greens in two, cut doglegs, go at all the pins… take calculated chances everywhere, including hitting out from the woods between those two trees. On day two I’m going to lay up on par 5’s and try to hit greens, just to get the GIR. I will see how it goes. See how it feels. See which style my genetic makeup prefers.
Fahgdat
Feb 4, 2016 at 3:35 am
What about pin placement, doofus?
Double Mocha Man
Feb 4, 2016 at 11:51 am
What about it? I don’t get your point. On day 2 it’s just about getting on greens and two- putting or getting lucky and one-putting. I know you play to a plus handicap; I only play to a 3.5 so this little experiment is practical for me. I’m doing Part 1 today.
Lawrence
Feb 3, 2016 at 2:29 pm
Zach Johnson laid-up on all the par 5s when he won the Masters.
Richie Hunt
Feb 3, 2016 at 2:40 pm
The issue is not about laying up, although it is important. It’s about where the players are laying up to. On Par-5’s, most of the time the best lay-up spots were to about 70-90 yards while the majority of pros were laying up to 90-110 yards. Also, when Zach won the Masters he did it in record low temperatures and very breezy conditions. The amount of ‘go for its’ that year’s Master’s was extraordinarily low compared to previous Masters and Masters afterwards.
West
Feb 3, 2016 at 1:30 pm
huh?
Nick
Feb 3, 2016 at 12:37 pm
I will admit that I fall into this trap when I play tournaments. I always try to take on the least amount of risk that I can when laying-up. I will say though when I have played well and won tournaments, I have the feeling that I can hit any shot; thus, I am more aggressive on all my shots. It also doesn’t help that in college my coach taught us to only be aggressive if we had 8-iron or less into greens.
Jacob
Feb 3, 2016 at 12:34 pm
As far as making par putts vs making birdie putts, I think you ignored what happens before making a par putt. They are more likely to have just missed a previous putt, or chipped on to the green compared to when they are going for a birdie putt. This would mean they get a better view of the line, assuming they’re paying attention.
Richie Hunt
Feb 3, 2016 at 1:32 pm
The study on par vs. birdie putts indicated loss aversion was coming into play because not only were they missing birdie putts more often from the same distance, but a higher percentage of birdie putt misses were missed short of the hole. And this was happening more frequently earlier in the event (more in round 1 than in round 2 than in round 3 than in round 4). The researchers took that into account, but their conclusions were that because of the short misses on birdie putts and it occurring more often earlier in the event, that in all likelihood reading the previous putt had little to do with par putting performance.
Tom
Feb 3, 2016 at 8:55 pm
But surely a counter argument to that is that missing short is a ‘misread’ of speed. Having had a look at not only the break but also the speed of a putt, therefore more likely to get the speed ‘correct’. Comparing par and birdie putts are like oranges and grapefruit – close enough to be confused, but different enough that it’s hard to directly compare.
devilsadvocate
Feb 3, 2016 at 1:32 pm
I was planning on posting this as I read… Thankfully someone else has some common sense
Fahgdat
Feb 3, 2016 at 12:18 pm
Worthless article without the yardages that those top-10 players mostly hit on average with each club, comfortably. Situationally, of course they decide the best course of action, but percentages of likelihood with their yardages for accuracy comes into play.
So how about a WITB with yardages for each club of these players, and their GIR percentages and proximity to the greens with each club?
Fahgdat
Feb 3, 2016 at 12:19 pm
Sorry meant to say proximity to the pin
munichop
Feb 3, 2016 at 12:03 pm
This kind of study results in a chicken or egg analysis for golfers. For example are JS and RM making these decisions because they evaluate risk differently or are they just more confident in their ability to hit the shot that is required that they play with less fear. It is the old Ken Venturi insight – to paraphrase- a player must decide what his ego would like him to do, what his brain tells him to do and what his nerves allow him to do. I think an interesting thing to investigate is how players vary this approach when they play match play vs stroke play. Guys like Monty and Poulter I would expect to be much different in the two formats.
Richie Hunt
Feb 3, 2016 at 2:49 pm
I agree that there is chicken or the egg, that is why I did not try to take a strong stance in the end (or at least I hope I didn’t come off like I was taking a strong stance). I found the results interesting and it started to give me a different perspective on the game when I saw the ‘aggressiveness’ of McIlroy and Spieth. I do know from a Tour client of mine that Rory is just extremely confident and aggressive on the course and isn’t afraid to tell people this and how he believes in being aggressive. I also know that Spieth works with Scott Fawcett on strategy and Fawcett’s data concurs with my findings on ‘aggressiveness’ in golf.
I was also watching the documentary on mafia hitman Richard Kuklinski (aka The Iceman) with world renowned psychologist, Dr. Park Dietz. Dr. Dietz said that Kuklinski’s daring nature was like genetic in his case. So, part of that ‘aggressiveness’ with players like McIlroy and Spieth may be part of a genetic makeup that most people do not have. So trying to create a mindset of not being loss averse may not actually work if you don’t have the genetic makeup for it.
Philip
Feb 3, 2016 at 9:58 pm
I can see that. I do not classify myself as a risk taker, however, I do embrace the rush that comes from being on the edge and pushing myself just beyond my best – I say I am an adrenaline junkie.