Opinion & Analysis

Are PGA Tour players too conservative when they lay up?

Published

8 years ago

Feb 3, 2016

Editor’s Note: This is an excerpt from Rich Hunt’s 2015 Pro Golf Synopsis, which can be purchased here for $10. Stylistic changes were made to the story for online publication.

Last year, I wrote an article Study: Why do Tour players make more par putts than birdie putts? examining the phenomenon of “loss aversion” with putting. This was based on a study conducted and published in February 2011 in the American Economic Review by authors Devin Pope and Maurice Schweitzer titled Is Tiger Woods Loss Averse? Persistent Bias in the Face of Experience, Competition, and High Stake.

Loss aversion is an economics term, but in golf it refers to players who have more of a bias toward avoiding bogey than they do toward making a birdie. Pope and Schweitzer came to the conclusion that loss aversion exists on the PGA Tour through the following findings in their study:

1) The vast majority of golfers on Tour make a higher percentage of par or worse putts than birdie putts from the same distance.

For example, a Tour player may make 50 percent of all of their putts from 7-feet. But, when examining the data they may make 45 percent of their birdie putts from that distance and 55 percent of their par putts from that distance.

2) Tour players miss a much higher percentage of their birdie putts short of the hole, and therefore their par putt misses are more likely to miss long of the hole.

This lends credence to their theory of loss aversion, as they believed that the mentality of a loss aversion player was to not hit the ball too hard on their birdie putt so they would not potentially leave themselves with a longer comeback putt.

3) Tour players not only miss fewer birdie putts later in an event, but a lower percentage of their birdie misses end up short of the cup later in the event.

Let’s imagine we have the player who makes 15 percent of his birdie putts from 15 feet and in during Round 1. Furthermore, he leaves them short 40 percent of the time in Round 1. Pope and Schweitzer noticed that in Round 2 the player is more likely to increase his make percentage on birdie putts from 15 feet (we’ll say 20 percent) and leave a smaller percentage of those missed birdie putts short of the hole (we’ll say 30 percent). The same trend is likely to happen in Round 3 (i.e. making 25 percent of the putts and leaving 25 percent of the misses short of the hole) as well as Round 3 (i.e. 30 percent made putts, 20 percent of misses left short).

Pope and Schweitzer believed that this further substantiated their claim. They surmised that as the event progresses, not making a birdie putt in Round 4 had a similar effect to missing a par-save in Round 1. Thus, the player developed a bias to not lose strokes to the field and they started to make more birdie putts and leave less of their misses short of the hole as the event went along.

Can similar conclusions be made about when players lay up?

I perform statistical consulting for players, coaches and caddies on Tour each week. Part of my consultation service includes examining holes on the course and how the players have played those holes in previous seasons. After performing this service for a couple of seasons, I started to notice some similar traits when Tour players had to lay up, either off the tee or on the second shot on a Par-5, as I saw when players were demonstrating loss aversion on the putting green.

I will determine where the best lay-up distance (and at times, location) is for a player based on previous data. One of the very first factors I found on lay-ups is that distance to the hole is generally the most important factor when it comes to playing the numbers for an ideal lay-up range. Obviously, a player does not want to lay-up to an ideal distance but be hitting from a fairway bunker or even the rough. But in general, that is a small issue since if a Tour player is laying up off the tee, he is most likely to find the fairway since the lay-up shot is usually a short shot that is easy to execute. And rarely have I come across a situation where laying-up to one side of the fairway was statistically better than laying-up to another side of the fairway provided the following approach shot is from the same distance.

Another factor is that rarely is being closer to the hole off a lay-up disadvantageous to a Tour player. If a player can have a fairway shot from 50 yards to the hole, it is almost always better than a fairway shot from 75 yards to the hole. There is a bit of a myth that laying up to one’s “money yardage” is better than having a significantly closer shot (20 yards or more) on Tour. Tour players rarely have an issue with half-swing wedges over longer, full-swing wedge shots. The only issue with hitting a lay-up shot closer to the hole is on the lay-up shot itself. The lay-up shot is now longer and it increases that lay-up shot’s level of difficulty.

I determined ideal lay-up ranges based on historical data and how close to the hole the subsequent approach shot was hit to the hole. For example, there may be a par-5 where the lay-up shots were hit to 70 to 130 yards. I may break down the information and see that from 70-90 yards, the subsequent shot was hit to a median value of 13.2 feet to the hole. Shots from 90-100 yards were hit to a median value of 17.5 feet to the hole and from 100-110 yards those shots were hit to a median value of 19.8 feet to the hole. Therefore, the ideal lay-up range on this particular hole would be to 70-90 yards to the hole.

Over time, I saw that not only did my own clients continue to miss these ideal lay-up ranges, but the field as a whole missed these ideal lay-up ranges the vast majority of the time. And the misses were almost all short of the ideal range, just like with Birdie Putts missing short of the hole.

PGA Tour tournament study: Lay ups

I wanted to see how big of a problem missing these lay-up shots short of the ideal range was on Tour. I examined a variety of Par-4s and Par-5s where lay-up shots were more likely to happen. I feel that the Par-4 lay-up holes are more telling because players are hitting from a perfect lie and everybody is hitting from the same distance. I discarded players on Par-5s that either hit a terrible drive and had a statistically significant farther distance to the lay-up range than the rest of the field, or if they were hitting a shot out of a fairway bunker or an area that is known for having a bad lie. I also discarded terrible lay-up shots that ended up outside the first cut of rough or in another fairway bunker, the water, trees, etc.

Hole No. 4, Pebble Beach: 331 yards, Par-4

One of the things that was noticeable and needed to be taken into account was that the players who made the cut, but finished in the bottom-10, had a higher percentage of finding the ideal lay-up range. It is apparent that those who barely make the cut or fall back on Sunday decide to be more aggressive because they have little to lose. It could be argued that this skews the data. But the other thing that I started to find interesting was the players who finished in the top-10 were finding the ideal lay-up range more often than the rest of the field.

Hole No. 1, PGA National: 365 yards, Par-4

The ideal lay-up range is large on this hole. It’s shown between the yellow lines (40 yards long). Despite the size of this lay-up range, only 28 percent of the field found it. But the top-10 finishers still hit the ideal lay-up range more often than the non-bottom 10 finishers.

Hole No. 3, TPC Southwinds: 554 yards, Par-5

Here we see the top-10 finishers were hitting the ideal lay-up range more than the bottom-10 players. This is because this is a reachable par-5, so the “what do we have to lose” mentality was directed toward going for the green in two instead of laying up.

Conclusions

These were just a few examples of the holes I analyzed. The rest of the holes I analyzed followed the same pattern of the field missing short of the ideal lay-up range the majority of the time and the top-10 finishers finding the ideal lay-up range more often than the rest of the field. I believe that this analysis shows an indication of players being loss averse on lay-up shots.

I can concede the potential flaws in this study, such as a player may erroneously determine an ideal lay-up range that is different from the actual ideal lay-up range. For instance, the ideal lay-up range on hole No. 9 at Harbour Town is to 80-105 yards and a player may believe that it should be to 105-125 yards. However, if that is the case then we could argue that this is still an indication of loss aversion as they are choosing an ideal lay-up range that is short of the actual ideal lay-up range.

The study does show two important findings.

The top-10 finishers hit the actual ideal lay-up range more often when they lay-up than the rest of the field. This indicates that the top-10 finishers were less loss averse that week.
When looking at the lay-up data and the putting data, there were two players that stood out as a combination of being the least loss averse: Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth.

At the very least, these studies should make golfers question just how much loss aversion plays a role in their performance. For example, we have always heard the old adage of “take an extra club on approach shots because you are more likely to miss short of the hole than long of the hole.” Perhaps that is another instance of loss aversion affecting a golfer’s performance.

I also have to wonder if McIlroy and Spieth have a different view of golf than most everybody else. Perhaps they are thinking more about accumulating good golf shots in a round instead of focusing on avoiding bad golf shots. And maybe the golf world has to change its outlook on golf, choosing an offensive instead of defensive mindset in order to break the barriers Spieth and McIlroy have in recent years.

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Rich Hunt

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

23 Comments

binu

Feb 11, 2016 at 11:36 pm

The pros play the percentage shot most of the time unless there is something on the line (etc – final round on the back nine). These guys are all number crunching machines for the most part.

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David Ober

Feb 5, 2016 at 10:40 am

I’ve often heard you remark that “closer is better” for the pros, but I’m more interested in the times when it is not. When greens get extremely firm and downwind, I’ve always wondered how many pros would chose a 30 – 40 yard shot over an 80 yard shot to a front pin cut over a bunker on a downwind firm green.

My guess is very few. I’d be interested to know the average strokes to get down from both positions over a large sample, but the types of pin positions I’m talking about are very particular, but they do occur with regularity in tournaments where the greens are very, very firm.

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Feb 10, 2016 at 4:50 pm
  
  David – The most common instance I have found when it is better to lay-back more is on back pin locations. There’s a variety of reasons that can account for this. On Par-5’s, one of the common issues is the bunker shots. For Tour players, they are fairly competent and better off with a bunker shot from 25 yards and in than they would be to lay-up to their ‘money yardage.’ But once they get outside of 25-yards with a bunker shot…they would be better off laying-up. The performance drops dramatically once outside 25-yards. So, if you have a large green and the pin location is in back, you may find a greenside bunker where you have a bunker shot longer than 25-yards. However, if the pin was in front or the middle and you were in that bunker, the bunker shot could likely be less than 25-yards.
  
  #10 at Riviera is another example. That’s more about getting the ball to hold onto the green. That’s a quirky hole and a Tour player can hit driver to that back pin location at get blocked off by the left greenside bunker or find the right greenside bunker which is usually jail. But, if they lay-up, they can have a wedge into the hole and generate more spin to get the ball to hold.
  
  #17 at Scottsdale is better to lay-up on that back pin location as well. That’s more of an angle issue. I wouldn’t lay-up too far back. It’s more about trying to get as close to the green as you can without reaching the green because it’s too small of a landing area once you get to the green in order to put yourself in good position to get to that back pin location.
  
  Reply Report comment
John

Feb 4, 2016 at 12:23 pm

Really interesting article Richie! I know I am guilty of this. I don’t like laying up because I feel defensive. Whenever I hit a lay up shot, I feel like I am trying to steer the ball and not hit a bad one. When I get the chance to attack my attitude and focus are better. I think there is absolutely something to the “loss aversion” idea. As you pointed out, it can be seen with par putts and birdie putts, and I think you could also find it with chips and pitches. I would be interested to see if the pros get up and down from say 30-40 yards more often for birdie on a par 5 or up and down for par on a par 4 from the same distance.

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Alex

Feb 4, 2016 at 8:19 am

If a PGA Tour pro thinks he’s got to lay up, then he’s got to lay up.

Tour pros make more par putts than birdie putts. And so do single digit amateurs. It’s the nature of the game. I’ve played the game for over 30 years and it’s always been so. I don’t think a statistics guru must say so.

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emb

Feb 3, 2016 at 10:55 pm

While I love reading your articles on statistics and find golf stats to be particularly interesting, I just can’t agree with the findings of this article when the top 10 players % of laying up to “ideal” yardage ranges from 37-54%. Yes, it may be higher than the non top/bottom 10 finishing players but, when only roughly 4 of the top 10 players are hitting the ideal yardages does that really translate into a quantifiable performance difference? Half or more of the top 10 aren’t hitting the ideal range either and they’re doing just fine.

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Other Paul

Feb 3, 2016 at 8:28 pm

Im pretty sure i almost never lay up, unless its an accident. I live by the driver and die by it to.

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Double Mocha Man

Feb 3, 2016 at 4:12 pm

I’m going to play two rounds of golf in the next two days. On the first day I’m going to be daring and go for par 5 greens in two, cut doglegs, go at all the pins… take calculated chances everywhere, including hitting out from the woods between those two trees. On day two I’m going to lay up on par 5’s and try to hit greens, just to get the GIR. I will see how it goes. See how it feels. See which style my genetic makeup prefers.

Reply Report comment
- Fahgdat
  
  Feb 4, 2016 at 3:35 am
  
  What about pin placement, doofus?
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Double Mocha Man
    
    Feb 4, 2016 at 11:51 am
    
    What about it? I don’t get your point. On day 2 it’s just about getting on greens and two- putting or getting lucky and one-putting. I know you play to a plus handicap; I only play to a 3.5 so this little experiment is practical for me. I’m doing Part 1 today.
    
    Reply Report comment
Lawrence

Feb 3, 2016 at 2:29 pm

Zach Johnson laid-up on all the par 5s when he won the Masters.

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Feb 3, 2016 at 2:40 pm
  
  The issue is not about laying up, although it is important. It’s about where the players are laying up to. On Par-5’s, most of the time the best lay-up spots were to about 70-90 yards while the majority of pros were laying up to 90-110 yards. Also, when Zach won the Masters he did it in record low temperatures and very breezy conditions. The amount of ‘go for its’ that year’s Master’s was extraordinarily low compared to previous Masters and Masters afterwards.
  
  Reply Report comment
West

Feb 3, 2016 at 1:30 pm

huh?

Reply Report comment
Nick

Feb 3, 2016 at 12:37 pm

I will admit that I fall into this trap when I play tournaments. I always try to take on the least amount of risk that I can when laying-up. I will say though when I have played well and won tournaments, I have the feeling that I can hit any shot; thus, I am more aggressive on all my shots. It also doesn’t help that in college my coach taught us to only be aggressive if we had 8-iron or less into greens.

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Jacob

Feb 3, 2016 at 12:34 pm

As far as making par putts vs making birdie putts, I think you ignored what happens before making a par putt. They are more likely to have just missed a previous putt, or chipped on to the green compared to when they are going for a birdie putt. This would mean they get a better view of the line, assuming they’re paying attention.

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Feb 3, 2016 at 1:32 pm
  
  The study on par vs. birdie putts indicated loss aversion was coming into play because not only were they missing birdie putts more often from the same distance, but a higher percentage of birdie putt misses were missed short of the hole. And this was happening more frequently earlier in the event (more in round 1 than in round 2 than in round 3 than in round 4). The researchers took that into account, but their conclusions were that because of the short misses on birdie putts and it occurring more often earlier in the event, that in all likelihood reading the previous putt had little to do with par putting performance.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Tom
    
    Feb 3, 2016 at 8:55 pm
    
    But surely a counter argument to that is that missing short is a ‘misread’ of speed. Having had a look at not only the break but also the speed of a putt, therefore more likely to get the speed ‘correct’. Comparing par and birdie putts are like oranges and grapefruit – close enough to be confused, but different enough that it’s hard to directly compare.
    
    Reply Report comment
- devilsadvocate
  
  Feb 3, 2016 at 1:32 pm
  
  I was planning on posting this as I read… Thankfully someone else has some common sense
  
  Reply Report comment
Fahgdat

Feb 3, 2016 at 12:18 pm

Worthless article without the yardages that those top-10 players mostly hit on average with each club, comfortably. Situationally, of course they decide the best course of action, but percentages of likelihood with their yardages for accuracy comes into play.
So how about a WITB with yardages for each club of these players, and their GIR percentages and proximity to the greens with each club?

Reply Report comment
- Fahgdat
  
  Feb 3, 2016 at 12:19 pm
  
  Sorry meant to say proximity to the pin
  
  Reply Report comment
munichop

Feb 3, 2016 at 12:03 pm

This kind of study results in a chicken or egg analysis for golfers. For example are JS and RM making these decisions because they evaluate risk differently or are they just more confident in their ability to hit the shot that is required that they play with less fear. It is the old Ken Venturi insight – to paraphrase- a player must decide what his ego would like him to do, what his brain tells him to do and what his nerves allow him to do. I think an interesting thing to investigate is how players vary this approach when they play match play vs stroke play. Guys like Monty and Poulter I would expect to be much different in the two formats.

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Feb 3, 2016 at 2:49 pm
  
  I agree that there is chicken or the egg, that is why I did not try to take a strong stance in the end (or at least I hope I didn’t come off like I was taking a strong stance). I found the results interesting and it started to give me a different perspective on the game when I saw the ‘aggressiveness’ of McIlroy and Spieth. I do know from a Tour client of mine that Rory is just extremely confident and aggressive on the course and isn’t afraid to tell people this and how he believes in being aggressive. I also know that Spieth works with Scott Fawcett on strategy and Fawcett’s data concurs with my findings on ‘aggressiveness’ in golf.
  
  I was also watching the documentary on mafia hitman Richard Kuklinski (aka The Iceman) with world renowned psychologist, Dr. Park Dietz. Dr. Dietz said that Kuklinski’s daring nature was like genetic in his case. So, part of that ‘aggressiveness’ with players like McIlroy and Spieth may be part of a genetic makeup that most people do not have. So trying to create a mindset of not being loss averse may not actually work if you don’t have the genetic makeup for it.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Philip
    
    Feb 3, 2016 at 9:58 pm
    
    I can see that. I do not classify myself as a risk taker, however, I do embrace the rush that comes from being on the edge and pushing myself just beyond my best – I say I am an adrenaline junkie.
    
    Reply Report comment

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

8 hours ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

4 days ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

1 week ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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