It’s always interesting watching the faces of golfers as they sink their final putt of a tournament. If all you saw was the reaction, it would tell you enough to get an idea of how the last day played out.

Chris Stroud’s face read of disgust after The Greenbrier Classic finished, strokes away from moving from contender to champion. Billy Hurley III’s stoic look was of a wasted opportunity, having entered as the 54-hole leader. Angel Cabrera’s showed the elation of finally picking up a PGA Tour victory that wasn’t a major title. And George McNeill, who shot 61 and aced a hole on the front nine to shoot up the leaderboard, displayed agony from the family health concerns dogging his mind, even as he ended as runner-up. (Or they could have simply bypassed the putting part of The Old White TPC’s par-3 18th with a hole-in-one as Bud Cauley did.)

This week’s PGA Tour is the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in western Illinois. If you don’t already have three immediate names that you’ve already penned in, you probably don’t know your history of this tournament too well. But that’s OK, I’ll get to that in a bit.

But first, know that TPC Deer Run will play out a lot like the Greenbrier did in West Virginia. The John Deere Classic is basically a showcase of Illinois’ rural areas and the Tour stop is another short birdie course. And like last week, it’s another spot where a 59 has been posted, although unlike Stuart Appleby’s historic number, it did not result in a win for Paul Goydos, who fell prey to a guy who you should already know. We’ll talk more about him below.

While you may think of western Illinois for its cornfields, TPC Deere Run navigates the bluffs around Rock River, which makes it a very hilly course, as most of the waterways in the state result in severe elevation change surrounding them. As such, you get several drivable holes and very few golfers will be intimated by the generous fairways.

This is a nice week for fantasy picking having been put through the gauntlet of similar choices last week. Obviously, anything can happen and course favorites can still slip up, but a lot of structure held true last week as eyeballed. Let’s do it again in this week’s edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

The John Deere Classic and the PGA Tour do it right, in that there is a charter flight awaiting those that have qualified for the British Open upon completion of their tournament. Given the cost of air fare, it is a really great deal for quite a few middle-of-the-pack golfers to try to earn some cash before they head across the Atlantic to Hoylake. It’s also the perfect course prior to the British since a player doesn’t have to get beat up and can often get a good bit of confidence by rolling some putts straight and true. I know that’s not the view taken by many, since it’s difference in time zones (i.e. jet lag) and playing style (i.e. links golf), but I beg to differ.

As it is, a total of 19 players are already qualified and heading to the western side of Liverpool, bordering the Irish Sea. But it’s not too late for someone to slip into the field, which is enticing as we break down a few of the riskier selections in the field who may or may not deserve consideration for various reasons.

Troy Matteson

It hasn’t been a good year for Matteson, who has missed 14 cuts and made just five. His best finish was a T5 at the beginning of the year, but since he’s really been struggling to pull in any cash. It’s hard to tell if last week’s 72-61-71-73 means anything, but at least Matteson heads somewhere where he’s played well. Overall, he’s 5 for 8 at TPC Deere Run with P2 (’12), T10 (’10) and T3 (’07) finishes mixed in. Though he tied for 27th last year, I’m not sure I mess with him in Yahoo leagues unless I’m way behind, but he’s a good pick in Golf Channel’s game.

Russell Henley

You’re going to see several former Georgia golfers mixed in the fray this week, and why not since they know how to win. While Henley has been a little inconsistent this year with 10 missed cuts in 21 starts, he did win the the Honda Classic and has the ability to shoot low on easier courses. His biggest struggle has been hitting GIR, but that shouldn’t be that big of a struggle this week. He hasn’t played this course yet, but did get off to a 67-65 start at the Greenbrier last year. Since we’re comparing courses and his track record shows he performs well at easier venues, I’m not scared to use him in Yahoo A this week even if his current form suggests a bit of a risk.

Hudson Swafford

I rode with him last week in Golf Channel group 4 and he paid big dividends. He’s a hot golfer, but Swafford just needs to learn to seal the deal. Given his Georgia All-American pedigree, he’s getting there sooner rather than later and this course provides little to scare him, just another chance to keep it rolling. He shot 72-67-65-74 at the Greenbrier, placing him at a T52, but that’s now three straight above-average, red-numbered tournaments as he makes his debut in his rookie season. He and former teammate Harris English would make a good combo for Yahoo C.

Kevin Na

Na flashes signs of life and disappears just as quickly. He should have performed better last week, and after opening with a 66, I’m betting he’s disappointed with a T52 as well. He missed the cut in ’08 as part of his last trip to Silvis, but he’s scored well at the Greenbrier since then. Na had a T32 in ’07 where he shot 68-69-72-67, and he finished T67 in his debut of ’06. So which form shows up is a good guess. It’s probably closer to good rather than bad, given he’s run out five top-10s this season, including a pair of second-place finishes. But Yahoo C offers some other intriguing picks as well.

Ryan Moore

Coming in to the John Deere Classic, Moore will be a top pick following a T5 at the Travelers (63-68-66-71), his fifth top-10 of the year, which includes a playoff win in October at the CIMB Classic. Moore also has a strong track record at TPC Deere Run after ending T22 last year, T8 in ’12 (67-69-66-68). He also owns T34, T74, T27 in Silvis with no missed cuts. Moore is a steady performer. He might not be the most alluring pick for Yahoo A, but he offers little in the way of bad play.

REWARD

This tournament has been owned by two men, Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson. A newcomer busted in last year and return to defend his title, and that would be Jordan Spieth. We can break down there success below, but it is important just to mention that you shouldn’t get too cute and overthink this one. They should be on everyone’s roster, and since they all fall in Yahoo group B, that means you get one more selection. Feel free to play that one risky and go for a flyer that might pay off. I like the security in that and I like that my competitors can’t really gain or lose ground, but I can swing for the fences to hit a grand slam. Here’s your three best bets for reward at TPC Deere Run, plus two other strong bets for success.

Steve Stricker

It sure does help that Stricker played so well at the Greenbrier that there are no concerns whatsoever about the amount of work he’s put in this year prior to his best tournament. He’s the all-time earnings leader at the John Deere Classic after three consecutive wins from 2009-11. The Illinois alum finished T35 last week, hurt only by a final-round 74 that dirtied his 66-68-68 first few days. While he didn’t win last year, he still shot 16-under par (67-66-69-66) to tie for 10th. Oh, that other year he didn’t win in 2012? He finished T5, firing 65-67-66-70, another final tally of 16-under. In 2004, he shot 14-under, good for a T4. I’d say that since his debut of ’03, when he missed the cut, he’s done a good job of escalating his play. There’s nothing more to say.

Zach Johnson

If not for Stricker, we’d be looking at Johnson as the runaway money leader for this tournament. Johnson, a native of nearby Cedar Rapids, Iowa, finally got a coveted win in 2012, and he would have defended his title had Spieth not topped him in a playoff last year. Here’s an impressive stat for you: Johnson has 20 consecutive rounds in the 60s at TPC Deere Run. He’s also been in the top three in four of his last five visits, with the only outlier coming in 2010, when he shot a casual 11-under par (67-69-69-68). While he doesn’t enter hot, Johnson shot 64-66-67-68 last year and he hadn’t been burning it up in his previous three tournaments. Again, you’re crazy not to roster him unless you’re just so far back in your league that common sense no longer applies.

Jordan Spieth

Spieth is one year removed from his first PGA Tour victory and he’s now 51 weeks way overdue for his next. How last year’s thrilling win is his only is mind-boggling given his playing level. Why shouldn’t he be sitting in the pole position heading into this one? My only downside is about starts remaining. I have three with Spieth and two with Johnson. And I’m using them now, no hesitation, though I will hold off on starting Spieth on Day 1, just to be on the safe side. Man, remember that hole-out bunker shot on No. 18 to get in the playoff with Johnson and Hearn? That one-hop birdie capped a round of 65, leading to a win at just 19 years of age, becoming the first teen since 1931 to win a Tour event. His short game is so stellar, he recreated the attempt a year later. And he made it. Yeah, there’s no letdown from this kid.

Harris English

English tossed out rounds of 69-69-65-67 last year en route to a T15 at 14-under in what was his debut after skipping the year before because he made the British Open. English is beginning to play well again, like he did at the start of the year before four missed cuts in seven tournaments slowed his typically strong game. He’s coming in off a T7 at the Travelers, in which he shot 66-64-72-67. That was his sixth top-10 of the year, which includes a win at the OHL Classic at Mayakoba. I see no detractors as he tackles this course with reckless abandon.

Chris Kirk

If you’re looking for someone to make that next push up the leaderboard, keep an eye on Kirk, who has finished T22, T30 and T22 the last three years. He’s been hovering just over 10-under par and has been undone by just one round where he didn’t shoot in the 60s. Clean that up and he’s a shoe-in for the top 10 and maybe higher. Yet another former Georgia golfer that played well at the Greenbrier, Kirk is doing exactly what he needs to avoid this week, that is shooting 65-69-75-68. One bad round resulted in a T45. One good round puts him closer to the win he put up in November at The McGladrey Classic (66-66-68-68). Having made 22 consecutive cuts, Kirk is a good pick for Yahoo B and really across all games.

RUIN

This week is much harder to pick those who will struggle, even more so than last week, although any birdie course presents that challenge. But amazingly there are those that struggle. There are those whose games are just not in a good place, or maybe their head is screwed up. I guess the safer way to view this is in light of your other selections. As I pointed out, you’ve got three big-time guys to use in Yahoo B, so if you used one of guys below, I won’t fault you since the likelihood is strong it won’t hurt you. But if you use multiple guys, or you have less leeway by picking two flyers for Yahoo C, well, that’s just not smart strategy. Here are five I don’t like, but especially in combination.

Boo Weekley

Weekley’s struggles have always been with the putter. He’s great for use on a course with tight fairways since it eliminates strokes lost off the tee, but that won’t be an issue this week. He’ll need to putt well every day to be a factor. Weekley shot 66-69-71-66 last year en route to a T27, missed the cut in 2012, and T21 in ’10 on the benefits of a second-round 63. That’s a mixed gamut of results, but one thing is clear is he won’t hit the top five unless he’s just killing the flag stick on approach.

David Duval

Duval has made just $94,709 this year, having only made three cuts in nine events. His struggles are very much from one day to the next, as evidenced by a 68 to start the Travelers before an 83 the next day crushed his weekend aspirations. It was a 10-stroke difference between Day 1 and Day 2 a couple weeks before at the Byron Nelson. That doesn’t make a fantasy owner feel safe in any way. Duval has missed the cut the last six times he’s played TPC Deere Run and this isn’t a hard course.

Tag Ridings

While his name screams of a country club pro villain for a Happy Gilmore-like golf movie, Ridings is playing like someone who may need to ride an obscure circuit for a few years. He’s missed the cut in his last four Tour stops and has missed his last three cuts at the John Deere, spaced apart by time on the Web.com Tour. His best and only weekend finish was a T62 and he’s missed the cut three other times. Barring some breakout week, he’s looking like a guy headed to play the Web.com Tour again just to keep his card.

Ricky Barnes

Barnes definitely didn’t capitalize on the momentum he began to create after a T46 at the Travelers and a T11 at the Quicken Loans National. Instead, he missed the cut at the Greenbrier, and now he heads to TPC Deere Run where he’s missed the cut in 3 of 4 tries. In 2012, he posted a T45 after shooting 64-67-71-74. Not sure what went wrong those final two days, but Barnes isn’t one that’s likely to shoot more than two rounds in the 60s and that puts him out of discussion in a week like this. 

David Hearn 

Hearn hasn’t fared too bad this year with three top-10s, including a T6 at The Players. He even started well last week, shooting 68-68-68 before a final-round 76 dropped him into a T64. You may remember Hearn as the third man in last year’s playoff. He shot 66-66-64-69 over his four days and he does do well on easier courses, suggested by a T8 at the Puerto Rico Open earlier that year. Yet I’m still wary of the Canadian because he seems to be undone by one bad round each tournament. If that round falls on a Thursday or Friday he ends up missing the cut, which he did in 2012. So while he may not look good on his own, he may have an inkling of value if you use him in Yahoo B with the Big Three. Or you just skip a potential scare and opt for some better talent.

The British Open is next week, so feel free to start up discussions on that, or if you’d like to further discuss fantasy selections for The John Deere Classic or even the Scottish Open, you can comment below or find me on Twitter @bricmiller. Best of luck on your week and thanks for reading!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: R. Moore (S), R. Henley

Group B: S. Stricker (S), C. Kirk (S), J. Spieth, Z. Johnson

Group C: H. English (S), H. Swafford

(Last week: 102 points; Summer segment: 251; Summer rank: 27,362; Season points: 4,017; Full Season rank: 1,600 – 98th percentile)

PGATour.com

S. Stricker, Z. Johnson, H. English, C. Kirk

(Last week: 195 points; Season: 6,459; Rank: 4,024)

Golf Channel

The Greenbrier Classic

Group 1: S. Stricker

Group 2: H. English

Group 3: J. Overton

Group 4: H. Swafford

Scottish Open

Group 1: R. McIlroy

Group 2: J. Blixt

Group 3: K. Aphibarnrat

Group 4: P. Harrington

(Last week: $322,813; Season: $12,528,658; Mulligan: $106,522; Rank: 8,301 of 40,261)