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Opinion & Analysis

Overrated? That’s not what the stats say about Rickie Fowler

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One of the most publicized swing changes this season has been Rickie Fowler’s decision to alter some of his swing mechanics with instructor Butch Harmon.

Fowler had his first career victory in 2012 and finished 40th on the 2013 Money List. Since he began making swing changes with Harmon in December, however, he has missed the cut in three of five events. But Fowler played terrific in his most recent tournament, the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship, where he finished third. And when I look at Fowler’s metrics, the projections show him playing more like he did at the Accenture Match play than in his previous four events.

First, let’s take a look at Fowler’s rankings in the key scoring metrics in 2013. These rankings are based out of 180 players.

Chart 1

Typically, the ranking in Adjusted Scoring Average and Money List ranking tend to be very similar. If they are a bit off, then the Money List Ranking tends to eventually match the Adjusted Scoring Average ranking. In this case, Fowler’s Adjusted Scoring Average ranking is noticeably worse (67th) than his Money List ranking (40th). This is because Fowler ranked 20th in purse size per event. He was playing in more lucrative events and that allowed him to rank higher in earnings than his Adjusted Scoring Average indicated. However, Fowler had good reason to be concerned since his play in 2013 ran the risk of not being good enough to qualify him for the more lucrative events he was able to play in 2013.

With that said, Fowler’s rankings are pretty solid. Par-4 play is the most important metric, and he performed well on par-4’s in 2013. He also was in the top-10th percentile on the par-5’s. Even his Bogey Rate and Birdie Rate are pretty good. However, he was one of the leaders in double bogeys last year, which is what the bogey rate metric does not quite show. So every time he made a double bogey, he now had to make two birdies in order to break even. Lastly, if he wants to get to an elite status as a golfer, he needs to get into the top-10th percentile in par-4 play and Bogey Rate.

Here are Fowler’s rankings in the key performance metrics in 2013

Chart 2

These metrics are not overly impressive, but not poor either. And he was very good at the two parts of the game that correlate most to success on Tour: Danger Zone play and Putts Gained.

When we consider his trouble with double bogeys, I normally take a look at his driving and some key precision metrics:

Chart 3

Again, Fowler was not great at these metrics, but he was not poor by Tour standards either. The Missed Fairway – Other % is essentially any tee shot that finds a hazard, O.B. or results in a rescue shot, and he was still better than the Tour average there. However, I did find something very peculiar about his driving with his radar metrics.

Chart 7

Generally, a golfer’s driving distance ranking and club head speed ranking should come close to matching. If there is a large discrepancy, it is usually due to the golfer hitting upward or downward on the ball. In Fowler’s case, his driving distance is far less than his club head speed ranking. This would indicate that he is hitting down on the ball too much. However, his launch angle and Max Height indicate that he likes to hit up on the ball. Meanwhile, his high spin rate is more indicative a downward attack angle.

So, which is it?

Fowler ranked 55th in Ball Speed and given his ranking in club head speed it indicates that he was making quality strikes with his driver as his smash factor was rather high. I think he probably was hitting up a little on the driver and he was ill-fitted from an equipment standpoint. This would cause the ball to balloon, which would explain his high Max Height and it would come down with a lot of spin so he was not getting any roll. And this was causing Fowler to lose one of his strengths, in his ability to hit the ball far.

Still, I do not see the driving as the major culprit for his double bogey woes. He simply did not miss big off the tee frequently. Instead, I think he had a major problem from the Safe Zone (125-to-175 yards) as he was putting himself in pretty good position off the tee, but only ranked 102nd from that distance. Most of the high birdie makers that are not ‘Bubba-long’ tend to play very well from the Safe Zone and Fowler’s below average play also cost him some birdies. In the end, I could see why Fowler was looking for a new perspective. His game was slipping a little and he probably did not want to have to change too much when it was too late.

Here are his key performance metrics for the 2013-2014 season (out of 174 players):

Chart 4

Fowler’s iron play has improved quite dramatically. While he is slightly worse from the Danger Zone, the important metric to keep in mind is shots from the fairway as that is the greatest indicator of a Tour player’s pure iron skill. Fowler ranked 91st in the metric in 2013 and is now the best from the fairway on Tour. So if his Danger Zone play has dropped slightly, it is more due to him hitting a few more shots from the rough.

And while the driving effectiveness is roughly the same, the key radar metrics indicate that it will get better.

Chart 5

Fowler is not only hitting the ball farther, but he is generating more club head speed. And his driving distance ranking and club head speed ranking match. The other radar metrics are virtually the same except that his spin rate has lowered by about 450 rpm. He has regained his advantage of hitting the ball a long ways and his iron play has greatly improved.

The only thing that has hampered Fowler is his putting, as he currently ranks last in Putts Gained. Here are his rankings in Putts Gained each year since turning pro:

Chart 6

Fowler has been a pretty good putter on Tour throughout his career. I feel that he is on the right path with his ball striking to get to that next level of winning a major. He has regained his power with his driving and has been striking his irons at an elite level. His short game has been sound and the only thing lacking has been his putting, which has probably suffered due to him focusing more of his attention on his swing.

I have my doubts about him contending in the majors this year. But, if he can continue to improve at this rate with his irons, fine tune his driving and get his putting back, Fowler could have a breakout year in 2015.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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