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(Sort of) Playing by the rules

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The USGA handicap system is often misunderstood.

Those of you who play baseball or bowl know exactly how your averages are calculated: The number of hits divided by the number of at-bats; or the total pins divided by the number of games you bowl. It’s simple math.

But here is an essential difference in those averages and your golf handicap: The USGA is not counting your average score; it is calculating, as best the system can, your ability to play a golf course.

This is why the worst rounds are tossed out, and why recent rounds are valued more than older rounds. So if you are capable of shooting an 85 on a 70-rated golf course (remember, rating nor par) you are a 15. This system, according to the USGA, keeps the playing field as level as it can be. But it can be misleading.

Quite often, golfers with a certain handicap play in a competitive stroke play event away from their home course and do not play as well as their handicap indicates. Take a low-handicap player who tries to qualify for the state open or an amateur event. They are, say, a 7-handicap, but they shoot 88 in the qualifier. Bad day? Maybe, but maybe not, because individual stroke play events are quite a different story than the games often played at home.

Bobby Jones offered a great analogy for this: If one were to put a 1-foot wide plank on the ground and asked you to walk across it, you would do so with no thought at all. That’s like golf with your buddies. Now, take the same plank and raise it 10 feet in the air.

Whoa! Better be careful. One step carefully in front of the other; every step counts. What if I fall?

Now that’s tournament golf. Jones went on to say that if the plank was raised to 30 feet, that would be major tournament golf. But his point is clear: There’s a big difference between golf with your buddies and tournaments.

This phenomenon has always fascinated me on several levels. I have explored the reasons in addition to the obvious one, pressure, but I think there are other factors involved. Namely, the rules of golf. If you consider the way most club matches or rounds are played, there is a very loose application of the rules of golf. Here are a few examples:

Gimmes: In stroke play there is no such thing, but in match play a conceded putt cannot be declined or refused. That is why you cannot play your ball “for score” in a four ball (better ball) match. If I have a 10-footer for par and my partner has a 5-footer for birdie on the same line, my opponent will of course concede my putt so I don’t show my partner the line. By the rules of golf, I have to pick that 10-footer up. And in big money matches, I BETTER pick it up. That’s why stroke play and match play are two very different animals that cannot be played concurrently.

Lost ball: There is only one option — stroke and distance. Go back to where you just played your last shot and add a stroke. “I’ll just drop one here to save time” is not in the rules book. This one is tougher on us than the pros, because in everyday golf we do not have the advantage of 10,000 people in the gallery looking for our golf ball.

Out of Bounds: There is only one option: Go back to where you have just hit your last shot and add a stroke. Again, you can’t just “drop one here.”

Wrong ball: In stroke play, you go back and play the correct ball and add two shots. In match play, it means a loss of hole. “Let’s go back, play the right ball but forget about the two strokes” is not applicable.

Although these may be the most commonly violated rules (there are many others such as playing the ball “up,” the leaf rule, playing out of turn, not announcing a provisional, etc.), the important thing to remember is this — many times, golfers do not violate these rules out of ignorance or cheating. They are violating rules to save time.

Recently, I wrote about pace of play and suggested that more match play would speed things up. The reason why? If all golfers played by USGA rules like they are supposed to (local rules notwithstanding), play would be even slower. If a golfer loses a ball in a fourball, the weight of the match would simply shift to his or her playing partner. “Play hard pards, I owe ya one,” is much better than a provisional and 10 minutes of searching for a ball that will never be recovered.

Now, getting back to where I began the story, do not let your home course handicap mislead you when it comes to playing competitively. For those of you who want to go the tournament route, you should learn the rules and play in as many competitive stroke play events as possible. This will give you a good idea of where you stand to par and other good players.

Recently while officiating a junior event, two young boys drove from the first tee dead down the middle of the fairway, maybe 240 or 250 yards out. They were both playing No. 3 Titleist ProV1 balls, and their balls came within a yard of each other. They were shocked (and their parents none too pleased) when I sent them back to the first tee hitting three! Both of their shots were considered lost because they could not identify their golf balls (neither had marked them). I wonder how many times that one would be called in a friendly club match.

Golf is a very difficult game by the book, but that’s why we have local rules. Personally, for the sake of time, I would drop the distance penalty for both out of bounds and lost ball and just take the stroke penalty. There’s no need to hold play up by going back to the tee, and even provisionals slow play with golfers of a certain level.

The game is about enjoyment with your buddies at a respectable pace. Playing some local rules and using a few simple time-saving tricks can help that; but don’t let your final score mislead you or be disappointed if you head out with the big boys.

As always, feel free to send a swing video to my Facebook page and I will do my best to give you my feedback.

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Dennis Clark is a PGA Master Professional. Clark has taught the game of golf for more than 30 years to golfers all across the country, and is recognized as one of the leading teachers in the country by all the major golf publications. He is also is a seven-time PGA award winner who has earned the following distinctions: -- Teacher of the Year, Philadelphia Section PGA -- Teacher of the Year, Golfers Journal -- Top Teacher in Pennsylvania, Golf Magazine -- Top Teacher in Mid Atlantic Region, Golf Digest -- Earned PGA Advanced Specialty certification in Teaching/Coaching Golf -- Achieved Master Professional Status (held by less than 2 percent of PGA members) -- PGA Merchandiser of the Year, Tri State Section PGA -- Golf Professional of the Year, Tri State Section PGA -- Presidents Plaque Award for Promotion and Growth of the Game of Golf -- Junior Golf Leader, Tri State section PGA -- Served on Tri State PGA Board of Directors. Clark is also former Director of Golf and Instruction at Nemacolin Woodlands Resort. Dennis now teaches at Bobby Clampett's Impact Zone Golf Indoor Performance Center in Naples, FL. .

52 Comments

52 Comments

  1. inncfromnj

    Jul 17, 2013 at 5:08 pm

    In competitive stroke or match play events, the rules of golf should be adhered to by the book.
    For the $5 Nassau, the group may wish to modify a few of the rules, so as long as all parties agree, to keep pace of play. One such rule is ball out of bounds. If in the friendly round with no money or anything else on the line, play it as a lateral hazard and proceed with a one stroke penalty.
    In stroke play there is no rule regarding playing “out of turn”…in match play, there is. Players must play in turn. That is the ball farthest from the hole must be played first.

    Other than that, play by the rules. Keep the game moving. Don’t hold up the golf course.
    Play read

  2. Brian

    Jul 17, 2013 at 1:00 pm

    My local club and the organization that runs the state events (CGA), enter your tournament rounds for you, so there’s no escaping the effects tournament golf has on your handicap.

    With that said, the negative effects tournament golf can have on your handicap can easily cause a realistic handicap to be confused with sandbagging, especially at less stressful club events like a member guest or member member. It’s a double whammy for those that don’t play tourney golf b/c not only do their handicaps have the potential to be artificially low, but they often aren’t used to playing by all of the rules, most damaging of which I’ve found to be putting the ball out.

  3. is1ander

    Jul 15, 2013 at 10:57 pm

    Great article! Hits the issue right on the sweet spot as far as the (mostly) honest golfers are concerned.

  4. Shannon

    Jul 14, 2013 at 2:42 pm

    I’m a rules official, recreational golfer & play in club tournaments. I play by the letter of the law in tournaments but in regular day to day play, I do not follow the OB and Lost ball rules if I haven’t played a provisional. There are times when you just can’t find the ball when it shouldn’t be a problem finding it. The ball has just rolled into the rough but you can’t find it. I wouldn’t have played a provisional because the ball should be easy to find but when I get there and can’t it, I’m not going to slow the course down by walking back to where I hot my previous shot. I will play it like a lateral hazard. I know I’m not playing by the rules but I also haven’t slow the course down. SLOW PLAY is the biggest problem in the game today. Match play would speed the game up by 30 minutes or more but in North America, we don’t play enough match play.

    • Tom

      Jul 15, 2013 at 6:10 am

      Great article, and I agree with you, and would do the same IF it’s just a match with the weekend group. We ALWAYS play by the rules too, and the only “gimmee” you’ll get is if it’s leaning over the hole. BUT if that ball is lost for no apparent reason, no one goes back, and will drop one to play it. BUT they’re out of the hole, and the score is put down as the max allowed for their handidcap for posting. Playing the other ball is basically just finishing the hole to stay warmed up I guess. Some at our course thought changing some OB to lateral hazards would speed up play. In many cases it’s done just the opposite. When you think you’re OB, you right away hit a provisional. But if you have a lateral where you cross the line at point A, everyone STILL goes forward to see if they can find their ball, (it may have popped out, hit a tree or you can find it and play it), but then not finding it have to go back to where it crossed and THEN hit their next shot, whereas the provisional would already have been hit and just go over and play it.
      And I’ll play one of those guys where everything inside the leather is good, ALL DAY. When he has to putt them, boy is it entertaining.

    • Dennis Clark

      Jul 15, 2013 at 8:55 am

      good points; provisionals are hit when its obvious or even iffy, but not when its in an area where the golf ball should have been easy to find…and you’re right slow much is a much more serious problem

    • inncfromnj

      Jul 17, 2013 at 5:51 pm

      Agree 100%..It seems that far too many people are obsessed with their “score”…When I first started playing again, almost everyone played match play games such as a Nassau or “Wolf”….Those are match play games.
      Rather than grind over a 9 on a par 4, in match play, you go in the pocket and we simply use the Equitable Stroke Control number of strokes and put that on the score card. A typical middle handicap golfer( 12-18) would take no more than a triple bogey. Problem solved.

  5. Sean

    Jul 12, 2013 at 6:39 pm

    If you don’t play by the rules then you can never know your true handicap. How then will you know if you are improving or not?

    ps: I always mark my golf ball. Even if it only ends up being used for one shot. :-0

  6. Rob

    Jul 12, 2013 at 4:02 pm

    I think the competition factor definitely leads to inflated scores, but it’s not the only reason handicaps are misleading.

    What we have to realize in a certain handicap is that the number reflects a score you “could” shoot 25% of the time, or 1 in 4 rounds at most. Because, of your last 20 scores, only the top 50% are included in the calculation, and then those are averaged, giving you a number that correlates with your top 25% scores.

    So 75% of the time you shouldn’t expect to play to your handicap in competition or a friendly round.

  7. Dennis Clark

    Jul 12, 2013 at 12:51 pm

    If you read into this thread, you’ll see that most are referencing the tee shot. But remember that lost and OB have to applied everywhere. Example: Par 5, third shot, 100 yards skulled OB over the green. with S&D, I can play 5, hit it tight and make 6. With two strokes, I’m chipping 6 from somewhere behind the green. Let me recommend a book: “The Principles behind the Rules of Golf” by Richard Tufts-google it. It is WELL worth the read.

    • G

      Jul 13, 2013 at 2:46 am

      Bingo.
      Once again, the difference between general recreational golf and tournament golf with proper rules.

      The problem with most golfers (not the problem with golf – note the difference) is that most golfers are NOT HONEST and their egos get in the way, they do not respect the rules, do not respect etiquette, and just generally don’t care what anybody else says. And I said, MOST. Of course, there are plenty of golfers who do care and maintain decency, keep their egos in check (most of the time) and respect the rules and the reason for why it is golf.

  8. Ryan

    Jul 12, 2013 at 10:53 am

    In the example where you told the kids to replay:
    A) Feels like if you’re going to really come down on these kids hard with the rule it would be easier to just have them check the marks before you start?
    B) In this case its usually a pretty obvious “my ball is on the right”, would that still not be enough?

    • Dennis Clark

      Jul 12, 2013 at 11:12 am

      There is no intent of being hard or easy; it is simply the rule, very black and white. Even young eyes cant see the ball 250 yards away when they are as close as they were. But that’s why we have junior golf, so the young players can learn what competition is. That includes the rules as well as learning to play.

    • Steve Barry

      Jul 12, 2013 at 11:21 am

      No, it has to be definitive I believe. I was caddying for a buddy in a State Am Qualifier one year and from the tee box, he pushed his to the right, over a small hill which we couldn’t see over. Well, over this hill was a small pond. We didn’t see the ball go into the hazard, so we were going to take a drop up right by the water as we were certain it was in there. However, one of the guys playing with us said we had to play it as a lost ball because we couldn’t definitively say the ball was in the water as no one saw it enter the water or see a splash or something that would let you know, 100%, the ball was in the water.

      • Brian

        Jul 17, 2013 at 12:32 pm

        Actually, it has to be “known or virtually certain”. Known would imply you saw it go in, i.e. 100% sure, virtually certain would imply you didn’t see it go, i.e. not 100% sure, but you and your playing partners are extremely confident that it went in the hazard. Every situation is different. We have a hole at my home club that tees downhill where you can’t see the landing area. If you crush it, the fairway narrows to about 10-15 yards, sloping to the left, with a pond on the left side of the fairway. When someone crushes one right down the pipe, and we can’t find the ball, we’re virtually certain the ball went in the drink.

      • inncfromnj

        Jul 17, 2013 at 5:42 pm

        Incorrect. The rule is “certain or ‘virtually certain”. the ball has crossed the margin of the hazard.
        It is shocking to find how many players who play competitive golf, know so little about the rules.
        In a stroke play amateur tournament, a competitor in my group hit his tee shot on a par three. The ball cam to rest directly a split rail fence which is marked as OB. I informed his that if any part of the ball lies on or directly below or touches any part of the ground that is OB, the ball is out of bounds.
        He had to re tee. Later he asked the tourney director and even he got this one wrong. Oh well.

        • Dennis Clark

          Jul 17, 2013 at 10:40 pm

          USGA Rules of Golf:2012-2015
          Rule 26-1: 2nd sentence: In the absence of knowledge or virtual certainty…
          Paragraph two: “If a ball is found in a water hazard or is KNOWN OR VIRTUALLY CERTAIN…

        • ParHunter

          Jul 29, 2013 at 1:07 pm

          Sorry but you got that wrong. The ball is only oob when all of it is OOB.
          As per the definition of out of bounds, a ball is out of bounds when all of it lies out of bounds.

          http://www.randa.org/en/RandA/News/News/2013/January/Course-Marking-1.aspx

  9. evenStephen

    Jul 12, 2013 at 10:28 am

    Dennis great write up! Really enjoyed it.

    Pressure is what separates the players from the guys that puke on themselves. I can say it is true, because I am the guy usually puking on myself.

    Tournaments are tournaments and all rules should be followed, but if those same rules are followed during a regular weekend game (OB, No Gimmes, Lost Ball, etc.) maybe there will be less puking, quicker rounds, and more knowledge of the rules. Practice makes perfect.

    I believe everything should be putted out regardless of the game you are playing.

    • Dennis Clark

      Jul 12, 2013 at 11:14 am

      Agreed, but remember that in match play you do not have the right to “putt out” if you putt is conceded.

  10. dubbledxu

    Jul 12, 2013 at 7:15 am

    This is one of the best articles I’ve read on the net in a while, well done Dennis.

  11. Dennis Clark

    Jul 11, 2013 at 10:04 pm

    Question: how many reading this story have ever played their golf ball out of a deep divot?

    • G

      Jul 11, 2013 at 10:41 pm

      All the time, on ALL courses, whether private or public it doesn’t matter – you’d be surprised how poorly behaved most expensive, private course members are about fixing divots and ballmarks, it’s shameful, truth be told.

    • paul

      Jul 11, 2013 at 10:48 pm

      I did once. Hurt my elbow a bit to. next time im taking a drop a foot behind the pivot. my elbow hurts just thinking about it. safety first, im not playing for money.

      • chris

        Jul 17, 2013 at 11:06 pm

        Another good point. I’m not injuring myself playin a round with my buddies. Besides I dint care what anyone says you shouldn’t be penalized for hitting a fairway.

    • inncfromnj

      Jul 17, 2013 at 5:35 pm

      All the time. The fun part is the challenge of executing a shot from that type of lie.

  12. igolfman

    Jul 11, 2013 at 9:49 pm

    Hey guys you can’t be a little bit pregnant. Play by the rules it is not that hard. If you think it is OB or it could be lost hit a provisional. Otherwise, I make most of those three footers I’m not going to count that one I made 3 not 4.

  13. tightmf

    Jul 11, 2013 at 6:55 pm

    I just add 2 if I lose it or walk up on an unexpected OB ball.
    My provisional is always worse anyway.

    • Danimal

      Jul 12, 2013 at 12:01 pm

      This seems to be what the rule should really be — OB should be treated the same as a lateral hazard but with a two-stroke penalty instead of one. Lost ball too, except the trick would be to figure out where to drop. Last known location of the ball, one club-length, no closer to the hole?

      OB/Lost Ball are terrible rules, in my opinion. Walking back to re-hit should never be required in golf (although it should always be an option).

  14. Dennis Clark

    Jul 11, 2013 at 5:24 pm

    One thing to remember here: It has always been the policy of the USGA to penalize “like situations alike” so there is no question that OB and lost ball should have same penalty. And the reason I say tournament golf is different is this: If distance penalty was dropped for tour pros, they could use the rules to their advantage in several ways. Example: going for a par 5 in two: If they go for it and hit it OB on their 2nd shot, they’d be playing 4 right up by the green, strategy changes greatly.

    • Dave

      Jul 12, 2013 at 7:43 am

      Yes, that is an excellent point. And for all golfers who play by the rules, OB is very punitive (stroke and distance), so it will likely affect their club selection and intended shot off the tee. If you are allowed to just drop, why not go for broke on strategic holes?

    • Danimal

      Jul 12, 2013 at 12:17 pm

      This wouldn’t be worth it if the OB penalty was two strokes, however.

  15. Tom

    Jul 11, 2013 at 5:20 pm

    For the sake of saving time and not going back too re-tee. The option of hitting a provisional comes into play.

  16. Jim

    Jul 11, 2013 at 4:12 pm

    Nice article. I agree with the lost ball/ out of bounds comments. I have never seen anyone walk back to re-tee after loosing a ball (and hope I never do for time sake). You just drop one near where you ‘lost’ it and keep moving. If you actually walked back to the tee that 4 1/2 hour round would be 6 hours easily because you wouldn’t be the only one doing the same thing. Re-teeing makes sense for tournament play only not for the recreational golfer.

    • Dennis Clark

      Jul 11, 2013 at 4:18 pm

      Very true; and remember this: We don’t have half of golfdom looking for our ball when we hit it off line. The gallery saves the tour players time and strokes!

    • Dominic

      Jul 11, 2013 at 5:10 pm

      That is why we have adopted a local rule at our course that all unmarked hazards are to be played as red stakes. The only OB stakes are along the edge of the property but this saves time for people that hit in the trees and lose their ball.

    • Dave

      Jul 12, 2013 at 7:36 am

      That is why you are supposed to hit a provisional ball if there is a chance your tee ball is lost or OB.

      • inncfromnj

        Jul 17, 2013 at 5:33 pm

        Be careful. If a ball is “lost” in a hazard or is known or virtually certain to be lost in a hazard, the player may proceed under rule 27-1 playing a ball nearly as possible to where the original ball was played. Or if in a water hazard determine where the ball last crossed the margin of the hazard and drop a ball keeping that point between the point of entry between the hole and the place where the ball is to be dropped with no limit on how far from that point which the ball entered the hazard. Or if in a lateral hazard, no more than two club lengths no nearer the hole.
        There is no ‘provisional ball’ contingency for a ball lost in a hazard. Rule 27-1

  17. Mike

    Jul 11, 2013 at 4:09 pm

    I’m not sure about your handicap calculation… You need slope and rating to calculate handicap.

    • Dennis Clark

      Jul 11, 2013 at 4:15 pm

      yes you do; the calculations were used as an “average” or example. The larger point is clear…whatever handicap is, people rarely shoot it in stroke play formats.

  18. Matt M

    Jul 11, 2013 at 4:03 pm

    Great piece! I agree with this idea of dropping the distance penalty for local play. With rounds lasting 4+ hrs the last thing I want to do on the tee is watch a guy search for 5 minutes then hike back to tee to re hit. A counter point would be if you think there is a chance it’s lost hit a provisional to avoid the wasted time walking back to tee.

    • Andrew

      Jul 11, 2013 at 4:57 pm

      Totally agree, If I have any doubt that I may not be able to find my ball I hit a provisional.

  19. Loupus

    Jul 11, 2013 at 2:52 pm

    If I could change one rule, it would be to take away the distance penalty for OB. Slows play and is unnecessarily penal. Same goes for lost ball. So I guess that makes two rules I’d change.

    • Dennis Clark

      Jul 11, 2013 at 3:12 pm

      Agreed; mentioned that in the article. It’s not a good idea in tournament golf, but for club golf and local rules, I think it would speed play.

      • Stephen Lee

        Jul 13, 2013 at 1:21 pm

        Couldnt agreed more on the idea of revise some of the rules. some of the penalties are too severe and unnecessary. In my honest opinion, amateurs are doing better with the rules regarding lost ball & Out of bounds.

    • G

      Jul 11, 2013 at 10:38 pm

      No way! THAT is how a good player differentiates himself from the bad, right away – by being IN PLAY. It’s a penalty for a reason. In fact, the problem with modern golf courses is that there are NOT ENOUGH OBs on boundaries. And why would you blankly say that OB slows play? How can it? If a player knows the rules properly and plays by it, IF there is any CHANCE that a ball may be OB or not be found, the player is supposed to immediately play a PROVISIONAL from the tee and proceed thus = by the time he gets to the first ball that may have gone out or not found and is indeed discovered that the ball is out – all he has to do is play the provisional = not much time wasted, at all.
      The problem with slow play is due to the “Search for the ball” rule – if a bad player hits dozen balls into the bush and spends 5 minutes looking for each ball and never lets the group behind play through – therein lies the problem. The Rules of Golf should clearly state that a player may only look for 3 lost balls within the time allotted of 15 minutes total to search. That should solve a huge chunk of the problem of slow play. The course marshals needs also need to be given more respect and authority by being allowed to move groups forward or ejecting players who just should not be out there at all.

      • pezman38

        Jul 12, 2013 at 8:59 am

        If you go 5-10 yards to the right of the fairway in the rough and your ball lands in a gopher hole, or buried in deep rough never to be seen again, I bet you a 50 spot you didn’t play a provisional. You get to the spot and can’t find your ball, in this instance to speed play dropping where you saw it land is better than going back to re-tee IMHO. This is for Rec play of course.
        If you see OB and your ball heads there, sure easy to play a provisional there, i get that, talking about not having a gallery watching your ball 200-300 down the fairway and only missing the fairway by a few yards.

        • Dennis Clark

          Jul 12, 2013 at 11:08 am

          Please remember that if the golf ball ends up in a gopher hole, you get free relief; it is an “abnormal ground condition” by definition.

          • Danimal

            Jul 12, 2013 at 12:12 pm

            But only if you can confirm that it’s in there, right? Otherwise, you’re trucking it back to the tee and making the entire golf course wait for you (if you want to play by the rules [which I do]).

            Should be a drop and two-strokes for OB/Lost ball, says I. Let’s petition the USGA/R&A!! (yeah right…)

          • inncfromnj

            Jul 17, 2013 at 5:16 pm

            If the ball is not identified, It is a ‘lost ball’..Stoke and distance is the proper play.

      • ParHunter

        Jul 29, 2013 at 12:54 pm

        IMHO an OOB or lost ball should be handled in a similar way than a water hazard. E.g. use where the ball entered the OOB or where it is deemed to be lost.

        Why is a bad shot that ends up OOB punished more than a bad shot that ends up in a water hazard (e.g. both could be a slice with in one case OOB running along the right side and in the other a water hazard running along the right side)? With OOB and lost ball you get punished effectively two shots (shot and distance) while with a water hazard you get punished one shot which is bad enough IMHO.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

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The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year. 

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child. 

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

  • 2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
  • 2022: Max Homa (-8)
  • 2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
  • 2019: Max Homa (-15)
  • 2018: Jason Day (-12)
  • 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
  • 2016: James Hahn (-9)
  • 2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult. 

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.12)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.01)
  4. Shane Lowry (+0.93)
  5. Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
  3. Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
  4. Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
  5. Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard. 

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

  1. Cameron Young (28’2″)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
  4. Sam Burns (+30’6″)
  5. Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week. 

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
  3. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Taylor Moore (+0.82)
  2. Nick Dunlap (+.76)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+.69)
  4. Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
  5. Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow. 

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

  1. Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
  2. Justin Thomas (+1.96)
  3. Jason Day (+1.92)
  4. Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
  5. Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

  1. Wyndham Clark
  2. Rory McIlroy
  3. Xander Schauffele
  4. Shane Lowry
  5. Hideki Matsuyama
  6. Viktor Hovland 
  7. Cameron Young
  8. Austin Eckroat 
  9. Byeong Hun An
  10. Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024. 

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week. 

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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