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Vincenzi’s 2024 BMW Championship betting preview: Backing Cantlay in Colorado

Published

2 years ago

Aug 19, 2024

The PGA TOUR has reached the penultimate event of the 2024 season as we head to Castle Rock, Colorado, to play the BMW Championship.

The top 50 players left standing in the race for the FedEx Cup will tee it up this week at Castle Pines Golf Club looking to punch their ticket to East Lake.

This is the first time the BMW Championship will be played at Castle Pines Golf Club, and the event has had a different host in seven of the past eight editions of the tournament. Previously, Castle Pines played host to The International Tournament on the PGA Tour from 1986-2006.

Castle Pines Golf Club is a par-72 measuring 8,054 yards but will play significantly shorter due to elevation. The course features Bentgrass greens and is a Jack Nicklaus design.

Throughout this article, I’ll be referencing an interview that George Solich, who is the chairman and president of Castle Pines Golf Club as well as Keith Schneider, the General Manager, did with Colorado Avid Golfer, highlighting the key aspects of the golf course.

The BMW Championship will be a no-cut event, with the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings moving onto the Tour Championship next week.

Past Winners at the BMW Championship

2023: Viktor Hovland (-17) Olympia Fields
2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14) Wilmington
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) Caves Valley
2020: Jon Rahm (-4) Olympia Fields
2019: Justin Thomas (-25) Medinah
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) Aronimink
2017: Marc Leishman (-23) Conway Farms

In this article, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Castle Pines

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Castle Pines Golf Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

When players at this time of year get hot, they tend to stay hot. SG: Approach is the best indicator of current form. Additionally, Jack Nicklaus designs tend to reward the best iron players.

SG: App Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+1.78)
Xander Schauffele (+1.38)
Tony Finau (+1.17)
Aaron Rai (+23.9)
Shane Lowry (+1.00)

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking will give us a strong indicator of who’s playing the best from tee to green. Players who are already long off the tee will have short irons into plenty of greens if they keep it in the fairway.

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.36)
Xander Schauffele (+1.65)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.35)
Shane Lowry (+1.31)
Ludvig Aberg (+1.18)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

We’ve consistently seen the best Bentgrass putters play well on the surface time and time again. In two of the past three years, Patrick Cantlay feasted on his favorite green type and won on the back of +14.6 Strokes Gained: Putting at Caves Valley and 2.9 Strokes Gained: Putting at Wilmington.

“The greens have always been bent grass; the fairways are a combination of bent and ryegrass, and the tees are bent, and the rough is Kentucky bluegrass,” golf course General Manager Keith Schneider said. “In fact, if anything, there’s been a lot of effort made on the approaches to go back to a very consistent experience.”

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Past 24 rounds:

Denny McCarthy (+1.12)
Ludvig Aberg (+1.01)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.89)
Billy Horschel (+0.88)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: High Elevation

Castle Pines will play at extremely high elevation. The sample size is small, but I’d at least like to factor in some previous statistics from courses with similarly high altitude.

Strokes Gained: High Elevation Past 30 rounds (minimum 8):

Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Rory McIlroy (+2.17)
Xander Schauffele (+2.16)
Justin Thomas (+2.01)
Sahith Theegala (+1.83)

Strokes Gained: Nicklaus Designs

Castle Pines Golf Club is a Jack Nicklaus design. Players who’ve thrived at Nickalus designs in the past will look to repeat the same success this week.

Strokes Gained: Nicklaus Designs Over Past 30 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.64)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.20)
Collin Morikawa (+2.17)
Shane Lowry (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.73)

Birdie or Better Percentage

While speaking with Colorado Avid Golfer, General Manager of Castle Pines, Keith Schneider said he’d expect a -20 winner.

There’s always a lot of speculation as to what that will be and as good as these players are today, there’s a lot of good courses that 20-under seems to be kind of the mark anymore.”

“Weather will dictate that,” Schneider said. “If the golf course is soft, they’ll throw darts at it so that the score will be down. You know, if we were really concerned about score, we could have made a couple of par-fives, par-fours. Well, that’s not the history of the golf course. The history of the golf course is that it’s a par 72 and we wanted to honor that and respect that.”

Birdie or Better Percentage Over Past 24 Rounds:

Max Greyserman (27.5%)
Sungjae Im (27.3%)
Eric Cole (25.7%)
Davis Thompson (25%)
Xander Schauffele (25%)

BMW Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed: SG: Approach (26%), SG: Ball Striking (23%), Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass (14%), Birdie or Better (14%), SG: High Elevation (8%) and SG: Nicklaus Designs (145).

Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Viktor Hovland
Tommy Fleetwood
Tony Finau
Ludvig Aberg
Russell Henley
Sungjae Im
Patrick Cantlay
Shane Lowry
Billy Horschel
Collin Morikawa
Aaron Rai
Sepp Straka
Max Greyserman

2024 BMW Championship Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2200 (FanDuel)

Last week, Patrick Cantlay shook off the rust after not playing since the Open Championship, finishing in a tie for 9th at the Fed Ex St. Jude Championship. He got off to a slow start with a 72 (+2) in round one but followed it with rounds of 67 (-3), 66 (-4) and 66 (-4) in the subsequent three rounds, climbing into a tied for 12th place finish. He was especially sharp on Sunday, ranking 6th on the day in Strokes Gained: Approach and 18th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.

Cantlay has won the BMW Championship in two of the last three seasons, and Castle Pines Golf Club looks to be another spectacular course fit for the 32-year-old. Cantlay is the best player in the field in his past 30 rounds in terms of Strokes Gained: Total in high elevation and also leads the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Jack Nicklaus designs. Cantlay has been incredible on Nicklaus designs throughout his career and has won at Muirfield Village twice.

It’s been a disappointing few seasons for Cantlay, as he has not won an event since the 2022 BMW Championship. However, he’s played some good golf in the second half of the season, finishing in the top-25 in seven of his past ten starts.

Throughout his career, Cantlay has done his best work on Bentgrass greens. Six of his seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass. At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff.

Over his past 36 rounds in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, Cantlay ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total. This is the time of year when he begins to play his best golf and how he named the moniker “Patty Ice”. I believe this is the week we see Cantlay’s two-year winless streak come to a screeching halt.

Tony Finau +2800 (BetMGM)

There are few players in the field who will have as much comfortability playing in the high altitude this week as Tony Finau. The elevation in Utah is the third highest on average of any U.S. state, and Tony grew up as the star of Utah Golf.

Finau has also played solid golf throughout the latter half of the season. The 34-year-old has finished in the top 12 in five of his past seven starts, including a tie for 3rd at the U.S. Open. He’s also hit the ball fantastically in that stretch, gaining strokes on approach in seven consecutive starts.

In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach and 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. With four par 5’s on the course playing in extreme altitude, Finau is the type of player who can make a ton of birdies at Castle Pines. In the field, he ranks 6th in his last 24 rounds in Birdie or Better Percentage. Historically, Finau has won in “birdie-fests”, which is what I believe this week will be. His last five wins have all come with scores between -16 and -24, with his most recent win coming at the 2023 Mexico Open (-24).

Finau has won a playoff event in the past (2021 Northern Trust) and has the advantage playing in elevation to win another this year for his first win of the season.

Billy Horschel +5000 (FanDuel)

In July, Billy Horschel found himself in the final group of the Open Championship at Royal Troon. Despite not winning, the veteran has been locked in ever since and used the best major performance of his career as a springboard to playing excellent golf ever since.

Horschel finished in a tie for 7th at the Wyndham Championship in his first start after The Open and followed it up with a tie for 10th at last week’s FedEx St. Jude. At TPC Southwind, Billy ranked 1oth for the week in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being known as a great putter on Bermudagrass, Horschel has actually putt much more efficiently on Bentgrass this season. Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass.

Horschel has had plenty of success in elevation. He won the 2014 BMW Championship at Cherry Hills in Colorado and ranks 13th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in high elevation. He also has been excellent at Jack Nicklaus designs. He won the Memorial Tournament in 2022 at Muirfield Village. He also put forth a great performance in the PGA Championship at Valhalla (Nicklaus Design) finishing 12th.

Billy has proven in the past he can beat the best players in the world when he finds himself in contention over the weekend.

Sahith Theegala +5500 (FanDuel)

Sahith Theegala has been a bit quiet of late, but that doesn’t change that he’s had a great season. The Pepperdine product has seven top 10 finishes on the year, including two top 6 finishes in his last four starts.

Theegala has been comfortable playing in high elevation and ranks 10th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in that department over his past 36 rounds. He’s also a fantastic putter on Bentgrass, where he ranks 12th in the field.

The early returns on Sahith show that he really excels when playing Jack Nicklaus designed courses. He ranks 15th in the field in the category and has a few strong finishes on Nicklaus designs this season including a T12 at both The Memorial (Muirfield Village) and the PGA Championship (Valhalla).

Despite the strong season, Theegala would be the first to tell you that he’d love a FedEx Cup playoff win to finish it off. I believe he can get involved and has the type of putter that can win him a tournament down the stretch on Sunday provided the driver cooperates.

Nick Dunlap +8000 (FanDuel)

Nick Dunlap is having one of the most impressive seasons by a 20-year-old in quite a while. He has two wins on the season at the American Express and the Barracuda Championship and put forth a gritty effort over the weekend at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship to punch his ticket to this week’s BMW Championship.

While it is certainly a big ask for Dunlap to win in this field, I believe he has a shot. His previous wins both came in “birdie-fests” and he should be able to tear Castle Pines apart with his driving distance and ability to exploit the four par-fives on the course.

Dunlap is no stranger to playing in high elevation. He won the U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills in Colorado, making him the second golfer in history to win both the U.S. Junior Amateur and U.S. Amateur championships. He also has shown that he has an affinity for Jack Nicklaus designs, winning at Tahoe Mountain Club’s Old Greenwood course in California.

Dunlap played with Scottie Scheffler in the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, beating him by three shots in the third round. There’s no doubt he will be nervous if he’s in contention at this week’s BMW Championship, but the kid has showed he’s not one to back down from a challenge.

News

5 Things we Learned: Friday at the U.S. Women’s Open

Published

2 hours ago

Jun 6, 2026

Ronald Montesano

Dumbo flies again! There is certainly a half-generation of golf fans without the slightest idea of how well In-gee Chun, aka Dumbo, can golf her ball. The Korean was the It Girl from 2015 to 2018. She won three LPGA events, with two being major championships. She returned to Korea to cure her homesickness, but made the occasional foray back to the Americas. In 2022, she captured a fourth LPGA title and, guess what? It was a third, unique major title.

The halfway cut line was set at four over par. Those at plus-five and beyond had their stay in Tinseltown cut short, at least when it comes to working rounds of golf. Among the 87 who fell on the high side of the cut line, Lydia Ko stood out as the biggest name. Others given a two-day furlough were Lilia Vu, Megha Ganne, Chizzy Iwai, and Leona Maguire. Making the cut on the number are Lottie Woad, Celine Boutier, Mao Saigo, and amateur Asterisk Talley. If you follow world football, imagine the feeling of relegation on a weekly basis. That’s the 36-hole cut in professional golf.

We learned five things on Friday at Riviera Country Club, and we’d love to share them with you. Find a comfy place and brighten the screen on your device. It’s time for Five Things We Learned on day two at the US Women’s Open.

Part One: the biggest movers

A golfer’s feel appears or slips away overnight. Although Saturday is known collectively as Moving Day, it doesn’t come with as sudden and final a feeling as Friday. Move the wrong way on Friday and you’re down the road. Improve in the proper direction and you save your week. Both Mao Saigo and Rio Takeda opened with plus-five rounds of 76, then signed for 70 on day two, and made the cut on the number.

Moving the other way were Stephanie Kyriacou (70-78) and Ina Yoon (68-79). Their respective eight- and eleven-shot declines propelled them from title contention to tournament departure. Minjee Lee and Minji Kang (seven shots higher) along with Rose Zhang (five shots) made the cut, but saw their opportunity for victory take a serious body shot.

Part Two: the leaders

Allison Lee and Ruoning Yin took the conservative path to the 36-hole medal. Lee posted four birdies and a bogey for a total of 68 on day two. Yin had two birdies and sixteen pars for her second consecutive card of 69. Their 138 places them one shot clear of the aforementioned Dumbo Chun, who followed an opening 71 with 68. First-round leader Jennifer Kupcho added seven shots to her total, from an opening-day 66 to a follow-up 73, yet remained within the inner circle of leaders at -3, tied with Chun and four others. Four more golfers sit at minus-two, two shots behind the top duo. An even dozen of golfers sits within two shots of the lead.

The day’s biggest move of gravitas came from Nelly Korda. After a disappointing 73 on Thursday, the world number one improved six shots, thanks to a five-birdie round of 67. Korda slid inside the top ten with her recovery, and certainly reclaimed her place as most frightening chaser at Riviera. No one is likely to shoot in the low 60s at Riviera, but Korda just might post a mid-sixties score on Saturday, to seize the lead on Sunday morning.

Part Three: Ams verse Champs

Five current amateur golfers were among the 68 golfers to reach the weekend. Kiara Romero posted the best non-pro score on Friday, a one-under 70, to move from plus-two to plus-one figures. She is joined there by Aphrodite Deng, who reversed those numbers for her two rounds. Maria Jose Marin (143), Farah O’Keefe (145), and Asteriks Talley (146) joined the #WeDidIt brigade to earn a spot for the final two rounds.

Six former US Open champions, led by In-gee Chun(2015), also punched a ticket for round three. Allison Corpuz (2023), Maja Stark (2025), Ariya Jutanugarn (2018), A Lim Kim (2020), and Minjee Lee (2022) preserved their dream of a second US Open trophy for the mantle. Nineteen amateurs failed to earn a post for the final 36-holes, while five former champions joined them on the sidelines. Yuka Saso, twice a winner in this event in the past half-decade, missed the cut by five shots. 24 amateurs against eleven former titleists suggests that it is easier for the young to qualify, but harder for them to find success.

Part Four: the golf course

Scoring went up by .6 shots per player, from round one to round two. Statistically speaking, it became harder to make the cut as the day wore on. Birdies dropped by 50, while pars remained constant. Both bogeys and doubles increased markedly. The first and the sixth holes played under par on the front nine, while the second and ninth were nearly tied for most difficult traces on the road to the turn.

Coming home, holes ten, twelve, fifteen, and eighteen played as an impregnable quadrilateral. Odds are, you gave a shot back on each of them. Despite number seventeen’s accessibility for birdie, no one got out of the back nine alive. If conditions continue toward the extreme, Riviera will extract a pound of flesh from the contenders over the weekend.

Part Five: what to expect

From my vantage point, the tee times to watch are the 4:55 EST and the 5:05 slots. Nelly Korda pegs her ball in the sixth-last pairing with Sora Kamiya. The little-known Kamiya will get an up close and personal look at the crowds that follow the best in the world. Korda will need to ignore Kamiya’s expected struggles and golf her own ball. Ten minutes later, Lauren Coughlin begins play with Casandra Alexander at her side. It’s a similar situation, with the experienced Coughlin alongside an unseasoned partner.

Both Sei Yong Kim and Gaby Lopez have turned in strong performances, and their 5:15 pairing might produce some explosive numbers. From back in the pack, the tasty duo of Brooke Henderson and Jeeno Thitikul at 4:20, might see double digits in birdies. The unexpected at unknown Riviera is likely, so your guess is as good as mine.

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5 Things we Learned: Thursday at the U.S.. Women’s Open

Published

1 day ago

Jun 5, 2026

Ronald Montesano

Gone are the days when the U.S. Women’s Open was held at Scenic Hills or Churchill Valley. Fine courses that they are (or were, as Churchill Valley went bankrupt a decade ago) there is something to be said for the venue. Not all Women’s Open playings need to take place on Men’s Open venues, but some should. This week in Los Angeles, the Women’s Open visits Riviera Country Club for the first time. Down the road, we will visit Inverness, Oakmont, Interlachen, Oak Hill, Chicago Golf, and Merion. That is quite the murderer’s row (1927 Yankees reference) of golf clubs.

What can we expect from the 2026 tournament? Greatness and uncertainty. Unlike the PGA Tour, which visits Riviera each February, the LPGA does not, so the women will not have nearly the body of work over the George C. Thomas layout. Maybe that’s a good thing. Maybe they’ll play #10 smarter than the men do. Maybe they’ll figure some things out that their male counterparts can not. For today, we’ll try to find five things to learn, and share them with you.

First, this ain’t your momma’s U.S. Open course

How do we know? Well, so far, only one previous champion currently sits inside the top thirty. That would be Minjee Lee, the 2022 winner at Southern (NC) Pines. Lee made par on her first nine holes, the inward side at Riviera. She dropped birdie putts on the first and ninth holes (ten and eighteen for her day) and tallied another seven pars, for 69. She sits three shots off Jennifer Kupcho’s opening 66. Don’t worry about Kupcho; we’ll get to her. After Lee, defending champion Maja Stark ranks T30 at even par, joined by three other, former winners.

What Minjee did, is the sort of thing that wins U.S. Open titles. She guided her ship safely past swells, and made a move when the waters calmed. The fewer the bogeys, the more likely Minjee figures in the outcome on Sunday evening in Pacific Palisades. Off the tee, Lee was unmatched. She hit 14 of 14 fairways. Her iron play was a bit loose in comparison. She putted for birdie on 12 of 18 holes, which meant that her recovery short game was on point. Lee was ten yards longer on measured driving holes than the field average, and was below the field average (a good thing) in putting.

Second, the amateurs beat a loud drum

Three of the world’s top amateur golfer posted 70, placing them four off the lead, in a tie for 14th place. Canada’s Aphrodite Deng, Spain’s Paula Francisco Llaño, and Colombia’s Maria José Marin, showed the professional world that their game is strong. Both Deng and Francisco Llaño collected five birdies on the day. Should they match that output on day two, and minimize the foozles, they’ll be the topic of conversation on Saturday morning. Marin, the 2026 Augusta National Women’s Amateur champion and an NCAA team semifinalist last week, played a game similar to Minjee Lee: few mistakes and few taken risks.

The last amateur to post the low medal score for 72 holes was Jenny Chuasiriporn in 1998. She lost a playoff to Se Ri Pak, who matched her plus-six effort at Blackwolf Run. The last amateur to win the U.S. Women’s Open was Catherine Lacoste in 1967. The amateurs are stronger than they’ve ever been, but the professionals have not allowed them to close the gap. A victory by one of the college set would be a cannon shot heard round the world. Could it happen? Absolutely. Is it likely? Not at all.

Third, let’s talk Kupcho

Jennifer Kupcho won the inaugural Augusta National Women’s Amateur. She won three times on tour in 2022, including the Chevron, a major title. She won a fourth event in 2025, but has not established the winning credentials projected on her after 2022’s marvelous coming-out.

Kupcho hails from Colorado, and spent four years in the Carolina Piedmont, at Wake Forest Universtiy. Neither of those locales cries out I’ll be at home at Riviera, but here we are, after a seven-birdie performance. Kupcho posted birdie on each of her first three holes, and added four more (against two bogeys) to assume a one-shot advantage over Korea’s Sei Young Kim.

Kupcho drove the ball decently, approached moderately well, but putted lights out on Thursday. Her 26 putts were tied for best in show on day one. There might just be something about the putting surfaces at Riviera that aligns with Kupcho’s vibe. If that is the case, just get the ball on the green, anywhere, and let the flatstick do the lifting.

Fourth, how young is Sei Young?

Sei (pronounced “So”) Young Kim won a dozen times from 2015 to 2020. She took time off from winning until 2025, shen she captured a thirteenth LPGA title. Like Kupcho, Kim has hardware from one major event, the 2020 Women’s PGA Championship. How to explain the five years away from victory? No idea. When Sei Young was in contention during the prime of her career, the outcome was a foregone conclusion.

What to expect over the next three days at Riviera? Anyone’s guess. It might be the 2015-2020 Sei Young, or it could be the 2021-2025 version. Kim began her day with birdies at 10 and 11, then settled into a stretch of pars before her solitary bogey at the 4th (her 13th) hole. Kim regained her composure and reeled in three birdies to close the front nine. Her four-under performance trails Kupcho alone, and there is a real chance that Sei Young will produce a second score in the 60s and take a bit of control of the tournament.

Fifth, we’re giddy for Gaby

Although I cannot place my finger on why, it seems that each year, Gaby Lopez pops up on the U.S. Open leaderboard. She hasn’t figure out how to remain in contention, but here we are, in 2026, and Lopez is once again in the mix. The three-time champion on the LPGA circuit had a stunning first nine holes, turning in minus-five. She reached six deep at her tenth hole, but then gave three shots back coming home. Which Gaby will show up on Friday, and for how long? If back-nine Gaby can somehow channel front-nine Gaby, all outcomes are within reach. If the loose play continues, Lopez’ wiki page will add one more T41 to her majors column.

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Photos from the 2026 U.S. Women’s Open

Published

3 days ago

Jun 3, 2026

GolfWRX Staff

GolfWRX Tour Photographer made the trip from the Memorial Tournament across the country to the U.S. Women’s Open at Riviera. Check out links to all the photos below!

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