19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge betting preview: Tony Finau ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

2 months ago

May 20, 2024

After an action-packed week at the PGA Championship, the PGA Tour heads back to Texas to play the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth.

Colonial Country Club is a 7,209-yard par-70 and features Bentgrass greens. The difficulty of the event this week will be influenced by course setup and/or wind. The last four seasons have all produced winners with scores between -8 and -14, with the two most recent playing extremely difficult. Last year, Emiliano Grillo won in a playoff against Adam Schenk at -8, and in 2022, Sam Burns edged out Scottie Scheffler in a playoff at -9.

After last season’s event, the course was renovated by Gil Hanse. I expect the course to stay true to what the original design intended, but will improve in some areas that needed updating. Jordan Spieth, who is one of the most consistent players at Colonial, told Golfweek his thoughts on the changes.

“I always thought courses like this, Hilton Head, these classic courses that stand the test of time, it’s like what are you going to do to these places? I think that’s kind of everyone’s first response,” Spieth said. “Then I saw them, and I was like, wow, this looks really, really cool. It looks like it maintains the character of what Colonial is while creating some excitement on some holes that maybe could use a little bit of adjusting.”

The Charles Schwab Challenge will play host to 136 golfers this week, and the field is relatively strong despite it being the week after a major championship.

Some notable golfers in the field include Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Collin Morikawa, Min Woo Lee, Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth and Akshay Bhatia.

Past Winners at Charles Schwab Challenge

2023: Emiliano Grillo (-8)
2022: Sam Burns (-9)
2021: Jason Kokrak (-14)
2020: Daniel Berger (-15)
2019: Kevin Na (-13)
2018: Justin Rose (-20)
2017: Kevin Kisner (-10)
2016: Jordan Spieth (-17)

Key Stats For Colonial Country Club

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Colonial Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach will be a major factor this week. It grades out as the most important statistic historically in events played at Colonial Country Club, and that should be the case once again this week.

Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Ryan Moore (1.00)
Tom Hoge (+0.96)
Akshay Bhatia (+0.85)
Greyson Sigg (+0.83)

2. Strokes Gained: Off The Tee

Both distance and accuracy will be important this week. Historically, shorter hitters who find the fairway have thrived at Colonial, but over the last few years we’ve seen a lot of the players in the field use big drives to eliminate the challenge of doglegs and fairway bunkers.

The rough can be thick and penal, so finding the fairway will remain important.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+0.90)
Kevin Yu (+0.87)
Alejandro Tosti (+0.81)
Min Woo Lee (+0.80)

3. Strokes Gained: Total in Texas

Players who play well in the state of Texas tend to play well in multiple events during the Texas swing.

Strokes Gained: Total in Texas over past 36 rounds

Jordan Spieth (+2.16)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.97)
Tony Finau (+1.91)
Akshay Bhatia (+1.68)
Justin Rose (+1.62)

4. Course History

Course history seems to be much more important at Colonial Country Club than most other courses. The same players tend to pop up on leaderboards here year after year.

Course History per round Over Past 24 Rounds:

Jordan Spieth (+2.31)
Justin Rose (+1.70)
Harris English (+1.66)
Webb Simpson (+1.54)
Collin Morikawa (+1.47)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

The Bentgrass greens at Colonial are in immaculate condition, and putters who roll it pure are at an advantage. Historically, great putters have thrived at Colonial.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (+0.87)
Maverick McNealy (+0.85)
Andrew Putnam (+0.74)

Charles Schwab Challenge Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (25%), Strokes Gained: Total in Texas (14%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (17%).

Scottie Scheffler
Chris Kirk
Tony Finau
Billy Horschel
Daniel Berger
Maverick McNealy
Adam Schenk
Collin Morikawa
Austin Eckroat
Sepp Straka

2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks

Tony Finau +3300 (FanDuel)

Tony Finau hit the ball incredibly well at last week’s PGA Championship. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 9.3 strokes in the category, which was his second-best performance on approach this season (Farmers T6). Finau’s tie for 18th at Valhalla is ideal considering the fact that he played very well but didn’t have the mental and emotional strain of hitting shots deep into contention in a major championship. He should be sharp and ready to go for this week’s event.

Finau has been phenomenal in the state of Texas. He ranks third in Strokes Gained: Total in the Lone Star state in his past 36 rounds and just recently put up a T2 finish at the Texas Children’s Houston Open last month. He also has success at Colonial. He finished 2nd at the course in 2019 and T4 at the course in 2022. He missed the cut last year, however, that seems to be an aberration as he hasn’t finished worse than 34th in his seven other trips to Fort Worth.

Finau has gained strokes off the tee in 10 of his 13 starts this season, and his ability to hit the ball long and straight should give him an advantage this week at Colonial. He’s also gained strokes on approach in 11 of his 13 starts this year. His tee to green excellence should work wonders this week, as Colonial is a challenging test. The concern, as usual, for Tony, is the putter. He’s in the midst of the worst putting season of his career, but with a target score in the -8 to -13 range this week, he should be able to get away with a few mistakes on the greens.

Finau is one of the most talented players in the field and I believe he can put it all together this week in Texas to get his first win since last year’s Mexico Open.

Sungjae Im +5000 (BetRivers)

Sungjae Im is really starting to play some good golf of late, despite his missed cut at last week’s PGA Chmapionship. Im missed the cut on the number, which may be a blessing in disguise that allows him to rest and also keeps the price reasonable on him this week. The missed cut was due to some woeful putting, which is atypical for Sungjae. He gained strokes slightly both off the tee and on approach, therefore I’m not concerned with the performance.

Prior to his trip to Valhalla, Sungjae was beginning to show why he has been such a good player over the course of his career. He finished T12 at Heritage and then won an event in Korea. He followed that up with a T4 at Quail Hollow in a “Signature Event”, which was his best performance on the PGA Tour this season. At the Wells Fargo, the South Korean was 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and showed his skill around and on the greens.

Sungjae has had some success at Colonial. He’s finished T10 and T15 with two missed cuts scattered in between over the past four seasons. When he is in form, which I believe he now is, the course suits him well.

Im hasn’t won since 2021, which is an underachievement given how talented I believe he is. That can change this week with a win at Colonial.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000 (FanDuel)

I absolutely love this spot for Christiaan Bezuidenhout. The South African is having a fantastic season and this is a course that should suit his strengths.

Prior the PGA Championship, Bez hadn’t finished worse than 28th in six consecutive starts. He’s not the type of player who can get to -20 in a “birdie fest” but can grind in a tougher event. He is a terrific player in the wind and putts extremely well on Bentgrass greens. Bezuidenhout has also had success both in Texas and at Colonial. He ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas over his past 36 rounds.

Part of what has made Bezuidenhout play so well this year is his increase in ball speed, which has been the recipe for success for plenty of players, including the winner of last week’s PGA Championship, Xander Schauffele. Bezuidenhout’s coach shared his ball speed gains on Instagram a few weeks back.

https://www.instagram.com/p/C6FCvK3S97A/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Now at close to 170mph ball speed, that isn’t enough to compete at the monstrous major championship courses in my opinion, however it’s plenty to contend at Colonial.

Bezuidenhout has been one of the most consistent performers on the PGA Tour this season and a win would put an exclamation point on what’s been his best year on Tour to date.

Brendon Todd +12500 (BetRivers)

Brendon Todd is the type of player that’s hit or miss, but usually shows up on the courses he has a strong history on and plays well. Todd finished T8 at Colonial in 2021 and 3rd in 2022. He’s also flashed some Texas form this year as he finished T5 at the Valero Texas Open in April.

Todd doesn’t contend all that often, but when he does, he’s shown in the past that he has the capability to win a golf tournament. He has three PGA Tour wins including a win in Texas back in 2014 (TPC Four Seasons).

Todd is a player who can rise to the top if some of the elite players aren’t in contention after a grueling PGA Championship.

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19th Hole

Scottie Scheffler makes case over major talking point in distance debate

Published

24 hours ago

Jul 17, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Prior to this week’s Open Championship, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler spoke about the “distance issue” in professional golf.

The reigning Masters champion gave the 8th hole at Royal Troon, called “Postage Stamp,” as an example as to how holes don’t need to be lengthened to be more difficult.

“No. 8 is a good little way to almost step back in time and control your ball a bit more.

“You don’t have to make a par-three 230 yards to make it a great hole. It can be 120 yards.

“I think holes like 12 at Augusta and 17 at Sawgrass, the best par-threes in the world are short par-threes. They’re not overly long par-threes.”

“It leaves a lot of opportunity for you to hit a shot.

“If I don’t hit the green on No. 8, it’s mostly likely going to be a bogey unless you’re in the front of the green.

“If you miss it in the right bunker or the left bunker — if you hit it in the left bunker, you’re going to be glad to be making a bogey because it’s probably going to plug, and you’ll be hitting up-and-down for your bogey.

“I think great little, short holes like that are fun.

“I think it’s an underrated skill for guys nowadays to be able to control your ball, and I think it’s something we need to encourage in our game, not just building golf courses longer and longer.

“You can make a short hole with a small green, and it’s pretty dang tough.”

One of the major obstacles of Royal Troon this week will be the bunkering. The fairway bunkers on the course are extremely penal and most will require a splash out into the fairway rather than a shot at the green.

“One of the things I liked that the R&A changed this year from last year was the bunkering,” he said.

“Last year I thought it was a bit silly how they flattened out each bunker.

“The bunkers are still a penalty enough when the ball isn’t up against the lip.

“It was a bit of luck whether or not your ball would bury into the face because you have a flat bunker and a wall that’s going to go right into it.”

“As long as you build a little bit of slope into it, you can allow guys the opportunity to get out of the bunker.

“If you’re on the greens, it allows for opportunity for guys to either take on the lip or play smart and play sideways.

“It leaves more opportunity for great shots and risk and reward around the greens and the fairways because you have an opportunity to hit a great shot or just play it safe and go out sideways.

“I love how they changed how they rake the bunkers this year with the more traditional sloping coming off the walls.”

Scheffler is set to begin his quest for a second major championship of 2024 on Thursday.

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19th Hole

Shane Lowry says this prevalent criticism surrounding Rory McIlroy makes his ‘blood boil’

Published

1 day ago

Jul 17, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Rory McIlroy has been in the headlines since his Sunday collapse at last month’s U.S. Open. Analyst Smylie Kaufman and swing coach Hank Haney have wondered aloud if McIlroy should have hired a new caddie, while others wonder if he has the mental game to ever win another major championship.

This week, McIlroy’s friend and fellow Irishman, Shane Lowry, has come to the defense of the four-time major champion.

While speaking with BBC Sport NI, Lowry said the criticism makes his “blood boil”.

“It makes my blood boil, to be honest,”

“They don’t see how hard Harry works and how good he is for Rory.

“Just because he’s not standing in the middle of the tee box like other caddies who want to be seen and heard doesn’t mean that his voice isn’t heard by Rory.

“When you get to tournaments, he’s always there before Rory, he’s always walking the course. He works harder than any of the caddies out here.”

Lowry added that he still believes Rory will get another major.

“He’s the best caddie for Rory and I’ll argue that with anyone who wants to argue it with me,”

“It’s tough for him. Northern Ireland and Ireland is a small place. I’m sure it’s tough for Harry to go home and deal with all that but he’ll be alright.

“That’ll make the next one they get together all the sweeter.”

McIlroy will try to add to the tally once again this week at Royal Troon, where he finished T5 back in 2016.

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While you’re here, check out BK’s breakdown of Bobby Mac’s winning WITB.

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19th Hole

Brandel Chamblee on why he feels Rory’s game ‘deteriorates in the biggest moments’

Published

2 days ago

Jul 16, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee has been a critic of Rory McIlroy when it comes to the Northern Irishman’s decade-long major championship drought.

After McIlroy came up short at the U.S. Open last month, Chamblee criticized his iron play.

“Don’t get me wrong, I love Rory’s golf swing, it’s beautiful. It’s beautiful. But he’s now finished in the top-ten in the last six U.S. Opens and he’s averaging in those six U.S. Opens – because I just looked here in strokes gained approach – about 30th. Guess what they do not do? Win U.S. Opens.

“The guys who win U.S. Opens finish first, second, third, fourth. Brooks Koepka in U.S. Opens – first, second, most greens and best iron shots, strokes gained approach.

“Rory consistently underperforms in his iron play – and that is the most important statistic.”

In the lead up to this week’s Open Championship at Royal Troon, Brandel is questioning McIlroy’s major championship preparation, after posing the question “Why does Rory’s game deteriorate in the biggest moments?”

Speaking at Royal Troon, Chamblee said

“When you look at what the best athletes do when they play to a higher level, they are being themselves.

“They are extraordinary athletes; they don’t have their minds cluttered up and, of course, their focus narrows the closer they get to the lead because of the confidence they get from that.

“So, it seems to me that Rory over time has enquired a lot from swing instructors or putting instructors or sports psychologists or deep dives from YouTube.

“With this generation, there is an epidemic of people doing deep dives on YouTube and getting cluttered up with curiosity.

“When I see Rory, it looks to me like he has either too many swing thoughts in his mind or he has too many voices in his head, it’s the only logical conclusion that I can draw.

“Why can one person be so obviously different getting into the lead or close to the lead and so obviously different when he has the lead.”

McIlroy will look to finally get over the line this week at Royal Troon, where he finished T5 back in 2016.