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Tour Rundown: Taylor takes title | Kobori edges Shin | Hoshino Masters Qatar
There’s nothing quite like an unanticipated gift. Mine (and yours) came courtesy of the PGA of Australia’s Players Series. Kazuma Kobori was the winner in Norwest NSW, but the story was just behind his victory.
Things got a little wild in Scottsdale, as they always do. Colombia’s Korn Ferry event saw two scores in the 50s and neither belonged to the victor. In Qatar, a door opened on Sunday for a slew of pursuers, and the winner escaped by one shot.
Four tournaments seems like the right number for a rundown, so let’s not delay any longer. Welcome to the February 12 edition of Tour Rundown.
PGA of Australia Players Series: Kobori edges Shin by one
Jenny Shin really had no idea that the Webex Series Sydney was a men’s event. Perhaps she looked at the yardage of the Castle Hill Country Club or maybe it was some other reason. In any event, there was Shin, posting rounds of 63-67-68-67 and reaching 23 under par. Only New Zealand’s Kobori exceeded her effort, and he was fortunate to do so.
Both golfers were 5 under par on the day through 10 holes, but Shin stumbled and tripped at 11 and 12. She went double and single bogey to give back three shots. The final six holes saw Kobori play cautious golf, closing in one-under the rest of the way. Shin fought back bravely, making three birdies coming home.
2023 saw Lexi Thompson play great golf at the Shriners, and Shin’s performance at Castle Hill served notice that 2024 will be a marvelous year of golf for all tours. Kazuma Kobori will no doubt earn a battlefield promotion to the DP World Tour with his third victory of the wraparound season. All credit to him for balanced play down the stretch and over the week.
Kazuma Kobori trusts the read to go three clear @Fortinet ??#WebexPlayersSeries pic.twitter.com/sn4D4w0yoU
— PGA of Australia (@PGAofAustralia) February 11, 2024
PGA Tour: Taylor adds Phoenix title to resume
When last we checked in with Nick Taylor, he was tending to good friend and fellow Canadian pro Adam Hadwin, who was decked by a security guard after Taylor won the Canadian Open in June. Taylor blazed across TPC Scottsdale on Thursday, posting 11 birdies and seven pars for a round of 60. Friday saw him battle weather and go 10 strokes higher. He rebounded over the extended, two-day third round with 68. As they say, it’s not how you start but how you finish.
Sunday was a long day in the valley of the sun. Taylor was paired with Sahith Theegala and Andrew Novak in the 2:15 trio, but the news of the morning was all Charley Hoffman. Despite beginning play three groups ahead of Taylor, Hoffman was but one shot in arrears. The top of the leaderboard was jammed with potential, and Hoffman wasted no time getting out front. Four birdies over the first 11 holes brought him to the top. A bogey at 12 slowed the train, but an eagle-birdie-birdie run over the next three holes made him the man to beat.
Nick Taylor turned in a symmetrical card of five pars-two birdies-par-birdie on each nine. Knowing that he needed birdie at the last to gain overtime, Taylor bailed right and found rough. His approach ended ten feet from the hole, and his putt for the tie was true. In the playoff, both golfers made birdie at 18 the first time round. On the second tour, Hoffman went way left but carried the water. He ended up in the church pew bunkers and reached the putting surface, some 30 feet distant. Taylor once again headed right, with nearly the same approach as regulation. He once again found safety, ending 11 feet from the hole. Hoffman’s effort for three was close, and it was left to Taylor to three-peat Sunday birdies at the closer, for the win. Was there any doubt?
NICK TAYLOR IS CLUTCH! pic.twitter.com/UdJpm2JwZ7
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 12, 2024
DP World Tour: Hoshino is Master of Qatar
Rikuya Hoshino has played professionally since 2016. The majority of his competition and victories have come on the Japan Golf Tour. Hoshino began to play more internationally in 2023 and nearly pulled off a huge upset at the 2023 Australian Open in December. He gained a spot in overtime against Min Woo Lee but was unable to defeat Australia’s international star.
This week in Qatar, Hoshino and everyone else were staring up at Denmark’s Rasmus Højgaard. The Dane had rebounded from an opening 73, with middle-round cards of 66 and 67. Unfortunately for Højgaard, another 73 awaited on Sunday. Two bogies in the opening four holes set his plans back, and he struggled to retain form. A one-under, back nine brought him back to a top-10 finish.
With Højgaard’s tumble, opportunity knocked for players like Hoshino, France’s Ugo Coussard, and Scotland’s Scott Jamieson. Jamieson charged hard after a third-hole bogey. Six birdies, added to an eagle two at the 16th, brought him to 65 on the day and -12 for the week. Jamieson improved 15 rungs on the day, finishing solo third. Coussard also posted one bogey on Sunday, but more than countered it with four birdies. His closing 69 eased him past Jamieson, and gave him a chance at victory.
Hoshino stood 2 under on the day when he reached the 16th tee. Summoning his best play, he turned in birdies at the next two holes, to reach 14-under par. With a shot in the hand, Hoshino played the par-five 18th conservatively. A 3.5-foot putt found the heart of the hole, and Hoshino had ascended to a new level of triumph.
Every shot of Rikyau Hoshino’s Birdie-Birdie-Par finish to claim his first Tour title ?#CBQMasters pic.twitter.com/7OshpAHGPQ
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) February 11, 2024
Korn Ferry Tour: Despite scores in the 50s, mid-60s win the week
The Country Club de Bogotá has two courses: the Pacos and the Lagos. The Pacos is the easier of the two, and Cristobal del Solar made his case for greatness on Thursday. The Chilean went full off on day one with a score of 57, highlighted by nine birdies and two eagles. Unfortunately for CDS, he had to play the Lagos course the next three days. 57 was followed by 69, then 75, and Mr. 57 found himself on the outside, looking in. On Sunday, del Solar solved the Lagos course, coming home in 63 for a solo fifth-place finish.
Aldrich Potgeiter followed Thursday’s 57 with a 59 of his own. A recent, KFTour winner in the Bahamas, Potgeiter moved into first position as del Solar wobbled. That was it for the South African Potgeiter, however. Weekend rounds of 73-71 dropped him to a 20th-place tie. Since lightning in a bottle wasn’t the answer this week, what was? In the end, Kevin Velo had it.
Velo didn’t score below 64, but he didn’t score above 67. He reached 22 under par, but so did Brian Campbell. The two Americans went to an extra hole, and Velo made quick work of his opponent. Despite not seeing the fairway on the bonus hole, Velo found the green in two and two-putted for birdie. Campbell was unable to match that number, and the San Jose State alum was a Korn Ferry Tour winner.
A win in wild fashion for Kevin Velo! ?
? Back-to-back birdies
????? Forces playoff
? Approach from behind tree
? Putt for eagle
? Tap-in birdie for the win pic.twitter.com/Gsns5aXDVy— Korn Ferry Tour (@KornFerryTour) February 11, 2024
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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board
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