19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Genesis Invitational betting preview: Stage set for elite ball strikers to shine at Riviera
The PGA TOUR’s West Coast swing makes its final stop to play a $20 million signature event at historic Riviera Country Club. The 2024 Genesis Invitational always delivers as one of the best tournaments of the year at one of the most iconic golf courses in the world.
Riviera Country Club is a par-71 that measures 7,322 yards. The fairways and rough consist of Kikuyu grass, and the greens are Poa Annua.
The Genesis Invitational field will consist of 70 players with the top-50 and ties making it to the weekend.
65 of 67 eligible players for The Genesis Invitational via one of these categories are committed:
– 2022-23 FedExCup top 50
– Aon Next 10 (51-60 in 2022-23 FedExCup Fall)
– Race to Dubai (top player not otherwise exempt)
– 2024 winners
– Top 30 OWGR
– Sponsor exemptions (*) pic.twitter.com/ijWX8vO4mg— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) February 9, 2024
Tiger Woods will also make his 2024 debut at Riviera this week.
Past Winners at The Genesis Invitational
- 2023: Jon Rahm (-12)
- 2022: Joaquin Niemann (-19)
- 2021: Max Homa (-12)
- 2020: Adam Scott (-11)
- 2019: J.B. Holmes (-14)
- 2018: Bubba Watson (-12)
- 2017: Dustin Johnson (-17)
- 2016: Bubba Watson (-15)
- 2015: James Hahn (-6)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
This week, I find ball striking to be especially important. Riviera requires golfers to play well in all facets of their game.
Ball striking includes both off the tee and approach, as one or the other will not be enough this week. Golfers will need to excel with both the driver and irons this week if they want to contend.
Last year Jon Rahm gained 12.5 strokes ball striking. In 2022, Joaquin Niemann, gained 9.1 strokes ball striking.
Total Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in Past 24 Rounds (Average per round)
- Adam Scott (+2.08)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.97)
- Xander Schauffele (+1.54)
- Justin Thomas (+1.30)
- Chris Kirk (+1.18)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
While off the tee is included in the ball striking stat, I am double-dipping here by incorporating SG: Off the Tee. Driving distance is very important, as the course is long, and there are many fairway bunkers that require length to carry.
Driving accuracy is also important because the Kikuya rough can be quite penal.
SG: OTT Round in Past 24 Rounds (Average per round)
- Kevin Yu (+0.98)
- Scottie Scheffler (+0.79)
- Rory McIlroy (+0.78)
- Byeong Hun An (+0.67)
- Cameron Young (+0.62)
Strokes Gained: Putting (West Coast)
Riviera’s fast and firm greens are notoriously difficult. Putts from 10 feet and in are far from a guarantee, and this is an area where we will see many golfers struggle this week.
SG: Putting (West Coast) Past 24 Rounds (Average Per Round)
- Nick Taylor (+24.2)
- Brendon Todd (+23.1)
- Sahith Theegala (+18.7)
- Sam Burns (+18.5)
- Taylor Montgomery (+17.7)
3-Putt Avoidance (West Coast)
Poa can get really bumpy late in the day, making tough par saves late in the tournament even more difficult. Average three-putts per round are much higher at Riviera than the TOUR average.
3-Putt Avoidance: Gained in Past 24 Rounds (Average Per Round)
- Sam Burns (0.8)
- Kurt Kitayama (+0.8)
- Keegan Bradley (+0.8)
- Nick Taylor (+1.0)
- Dabis Riley (+1.1)
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
This event will be far from a birdie-fest. As mentioned, Riviera is a true all-around test.
With fairways relatively difficult to hit, playing out of the rough will create a lot of missed greens. Golfers will need to make some tricky up and downs to get away with par at Riviera.
SG: ARG: past 24 rounds (Average per round)
- Justin Thomas (+.78)
- Russell Henley (+.76)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+62)
- J.J. Spaun (+.57)
- Beau Hossler (+.56)
Course History (SG: Total) (Average per round)
- Cameron Young
- Adam Svensson
- Mac Homa
- Viktor Hovland
- Patrick Cantlay
- Collin Morikawa
- Adam Scott
- Xander Schauffele
- Will Zalatoris
- Rory McIlroy
Statistical Model
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG: BS (28%), SG: OTT (24%), SG: Putting West Coast (17%), SG: ARG (17%), Course History (7%) and 3-Putt Avoidance West Coast (7%).
- Sahith Theegala (+3500)
- Max Homa (+1600)
- Justin Thomas (+2000)
- Xander Schauffele (+1400)
- Collin Morikawa (+1600)
- Scottie Scheffler (+750)
- Beau Hossler (+1800)
- Adam Scott (+4500)
- Viktor Hovland (+1200)
- Luke List (+15000)
2024 Genesis Invitational Picks
Justin Thomas +2500 (Bet365)
Justin Thomas was my headline bet last week, and I’ll be going back to him once again at Riviera. Although it wasn’t a spectacular performance, JT played well enough, finishing in a tie for 11th.
Statistically, Thomas didn’t play extremely well, however, he was solid in all facets of his game, which is a key at Riviera. He gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and even putting. After making a putter switch after the first round, the two-time PGA Champion was positive on the greens for the rest of the week.
Thomas has had a great deal of success at Riviera, and history has shown that players who have a strong track record at the course are more likely to have a repeat performance. In his past six starts at the Genesis Invitational, Thomas has three top-10 finishes, including a second-place finish in 2019. In that event, JT lost to J.B. Holmes on a windy Sunday when he played 36 holes. He finished 20th last season.
Although he’s yet to get in the winner’s circle since the 2022 PGA Championship, JT has finished 3rd, 6th and 12th in his three 2024 starts. I believe the win is coming, and one of his best chances of the year will be this week.
Tony Finau +3000 (BetRivers)
Despite not finishing extremely well, Tony Finau once again hit the ball great at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He gained 5.8 strokes ball striking, which should provide him much more of an advantage at a course like Riviera as opposed to the shorter track in Pebble Beach. Finau was also excellent at Torrey Pines, finishing 6th and gaining 7.0 strokes on approach, which was good for 2nd in the field.
Finau has a strong track record at Riviera. In 2021, he lost in a playoff to Max Homa and in 2019, he finished runner-up to Bubba Watson. He ranks 14th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total per round at Riviera. The 34-year-old has finished in the top-20 of the event in three of his last five tries.
It’s been a slow start for the bigger names at the top of the leaderboard this season, but I believe a player like Finau can get it done this week in a signature event.
Sahith Theegala +3500 (DraftKings)
This season, Sahith Theegala is playing like one of the best and most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour. In his past two starts, he’s finished 20th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am and 5th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Last week at TPC Scottsdale, Theegala gained 5.6 strokes on approach and 2.6 strokes off the tee.
In addition to the strong recent ball striking, the former Haskins award winner is an excellent putter on West Coast POA, ranking 3rd in the field in the category only behind some fantastic putters.
Theegala has proven that he’s extremely comfortable playing on the West Coast where he grew up and went to college at Pepperdine. He won the Fortinet Championship in the fall and can be another player, similar to Max Homa, who wins at Silverado and Riviera.
Adam Scott +4500 (FanDuel)
This number is a little shorter than I was hoping for, but Scott’s combination of recent form and course history at Riviera is too difficult to ignore this week.
Last week at TPC Scottsdale, the Australian gained 6.5 strokes on approach, which was his best performance in the category since June of 2022. Scott has started his 2024 season finishing 20th and 8th in his two starts and a recent iron switch seems to be working out beautifuly for the veteran. He switched from Miura irons to the Srixon ZX Mk II (3, 4), Srixon ZX 7 Mk II (5-9), which are more of a cavity backed iron. He also switched to a TaylorMade driver and has gained 1.8 and 1.7 strokes off the tee in his two starts this season.
Scott’s history at Riviera is remarkable. In his last eight trips to the course, he’s finished in the top eleven five times, including a win (2020) and a runner-up (2016). In the field, he ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Riviera.
At his best, Scott can compete with all of the top players on Tour despite being in the back nine of his incredible career.
Adam Scott currently co-leading at Riviera #PGATour pic.twitter.com/WVr210v7AN
— PGA of Australia (@PGAofAustralia) February 16, 2019
Hideki Matsuyama +8000 (BetRivers)
This is simply a “bet the number” play for me this week. Hideki Matsuyama has been a tough man to predict since his 2021 Masters victory and he’s been relatively inconsistent to kick off his 2024 campaign. In between some mixed results, the Japanese star has finishes of 13th at Torrey Pines and 22nd last week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
In the past, Matsuyama has played great at Riviera, however the results haven’t been as strong in the past three seasons. He has finishes of 4th (2015), 9th (2019) and 5th (2020), so he clearly has an eye for the layout.
Matsuyama is great with his long irons and is always one of the best players around the green, which are two of the most important factors at Riv. If Matsuyama can keep his driver in play, I think he will be around over the weekend.
Three holes played. Two chip-inskis. Class from Hideki. pic.twitter.com/87dN3v3EFC
— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) February 9, 2024
Other Considerations
I decided to add this blurb this week of some players that I strongly considered but couldn’t fit on my card. If you need a break from some of my stalwarts such as JT, Hideki or Scott, a bet on one of these players looks great.
Ludvig Aberg +2200: Riviera should be a perfect course fit.
Sam Burns +2500: Playing extremely well at the moment and figures to be in the mix.
Cameron Young +4000: Played great here last year and seems to be finding some form. Driver can be a weapon at Riv.
Will Zalatoris :+5500: Still working his way back from injury, which is my concern, but Riviera is a golf course that will suit Zalatoris for the next decade plus.
- LIKE16
- LEGIT11
- WOW4
- LOL0
- IDHT1
- FLOP1
- OB0
- SHANK1
19th Hole
Brandel Chamblee has a surprising new take on the PGA Tour-LIV stand-off
One of the more outspoken analysts throughout the LIV Golf vs. PGA Tour saga has been Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee.
This week, Chamblee reversed course, saying he believes the PGA Tour should strike a deal with Saudi Arabia’s Private Investment Fund (PIF).
Golf Channel Brandel Chamblee in his biggest about-face since the Framework Agreement on June 6, now says that making a deal with the PIF "is the better end of the bargain."
He says:
"The PGA Tour is in this pickle like it or not, but, do you want to compete with someone (LIV… pic.twitter.com/XDZaC1I6B8
— JCAGOLFReport (@JCAGOLFReport) May 10, 2024
“The PGA Tour is in this pickle like it or not, but, do you want to compete with someone who’s not going to go away, who can outspend you”.
“Every move they make that makes their tour better deletes your tour and causes more division within the tour. So the time is now, to Rory’s point about making a deal, I wouldn’t have said that a year ago… but it is the better end of the bargain.”
Chamblee’s new stance seems to be in line with that of Rory McIlroy, who reportedly wanted to rejoin the PGA Tour board with hopes of pushing a deal with the PIF closer to the finish line.
Chamblee will be in the booth for next week’s PGA Championship which has 16 LIV players in the field.
More from the 19th Hole
- Phil Mickelson drops big retirement hint; Says LIV will grow the game “on a much more global basis”
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Tiger explains why golf has “negative connotations” for daughter Sam
New here?
- LIKE28
- LEGIT10
- WOW5
- LOL3
- IDHT1
- FLOP4
- OB1
- SHANK38
19th Hole
Xander Schauffele explains free drop ruling during round one of Wells Fargo Championship
During Thursday’s opening round of the Wells Fargo Championship, Xander Schauffele blasted his tee shot in the woods to the right of the fairway on the par-4 8th hole.
The ball was almost not found, but Xander’s group managed to track it down just before the three-minute time limit was reached.
When the ball was found, it was just beyond the penalty area close to a fence. In the moment, it seemed incredibly unlikely that Schauffele would be able to hit the ball through the trees towards the green.
However, through the woods and above the fairway, there was a hanging wire from a ShotLink tower that Xander claimed was in his way. He was then granted relief, and two club lengths from the spot positioned him all the way out of trouble. He played his ball onto the front of the green and two-putted for par.
Here is the full video of the interaction between Schauffele and the rules official.
??? #WATCH — The full video of the Xander Schauffele #DropGate situation ?
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) May 9, 2024
After the round, Xander said he “got really lucky.”
“Got really lucky multiple times, on 1 with Wyndham finding it, 2, being able to move the rocks, and 3, the ShotLink tower being in like my only shot line possible. To walk out there with sort of a no breeze 4 with what I thought was almost out was a really good break.”
“Yeah, I hit it in the trees. My ball was probably like a foot, two feet from the fence. If I — ball was here, fence was kind of here, hitting back this direction.
“If I went towards the green, the fence kind of worked this way so I had what I could hit, a 4-iron or something low and just kind of run it through. If it gets stuck, I’ll just kind of hit my next one out. But I brought the rules official in there with me because I was like, you’ve got to be OK with this because this is literally the only shot I can hit.”
“So Austin [Kaiser] and I moved two massive rocks that weren’t embedded and then I got relief out of the junk and then hit a pretty good shot on the green from there. What was a very stressful moment turned into a pretty stressless par.”
Schauffele finished the round at seven under, which gives him a three-shot lead going into Friday’s second round.
More from the 19th Hole
- Phil Mickelson drops big retirement hint; Says LIV will grow the game “on a much more global basis”
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Tiger explains why golf has “negative connotations” for daughter Sam
New here?
- LIKE8
- LEGIT5
- WOW4
- LOL4
- IDHT0
- FLOP1
- OB1
- SHANK19
19th Hole
Report: Tiger Woods voted against Rory McIlroy returning to policy board; Will be the only player negotiating directly with Saudis
According to a report from The Telegraph, the relationship between Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy has soured.
Last week, reports surfaced that McIlroy, who was a member of the PGA Tour policy board during most of the past few years, was looking to rejoin the board, presumably taking Webb Simpson’s seat.
However, on Wednesday, McIlroy revealed that he will not be rejoining the policy board, due to people on the board being “uncomfortable” with that “for some reason.”
Here's Rory McIlroy talking about the PGA Tour policy board and the "subset of people on the board that were maybe uncomfortable with me coming back on for some reason." pic.twitter.com/0skNOwtWxz
— Patrick McDonald (@pmcdonaldCBS) May 8, 2024
The Telegraph has reported that Tiger Woods was among the players who voted against McIlroy returning to the policy board.
The divide is apparently due to McIlroy pushing for the game of golf to unify, whereas Woods, reportedly, believes the PGA Tour is in a fine position where it currently stands.
The Associated Press added another wrinkle to the situation, reporting that Woods is the only player who will be negotiating directly with the Saudis.
The other members of the committee are PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan, board chairman Joe Gorder, John W. Henry of Fenway Sports Group, and Joe Ogilvie, who was a former PGA Tour player.
- LIKE30
- LEGIT7
- WOW14
- LOL6
- IDHT1
- FLOP3
- OB2
- SHANK34
-
19th Hole3 weeks ago
Justin Thomas on the equipment choice of Scottie Scheffler that he thinks is ‘weird’
-
19th Hole3 weeks ago
‘Absolutely crazy’ – Major champ lays into Patrick Cantlay over his decision on final hole of RBC Heritage
-
19th Hole2 weeks ago
LET pro gives detailed financial breakdown of first week on tour…and the net result may shock you
-
19th Hole4 days ago
Report: LIV star turns down PGA Championship invite due to ‘personal commitments’
-
19th Hole1 week ago
Gary Player claims this is what ‘completely ruined’ Tiger Woods’ career
-
Equipment3 days ago
Details on Justin Thomas’ driver switch at the Wells Fargo Championship
-
Whats in the Bag2 weeks ago
Team McIlowry (Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry) winning WITBs: 2024 Zurich Classic
-
Whats in the Bag4 days ago
Keegan Bradley WITB 2024 (May)