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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Genesis Invitational betting preview: Stage set for elite ball strikers to shine at Riviera

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2 months ago

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The PGA TOUR’s West Coast swing makes its final stop to play a $20 million signature event at historic Riviera Country Club. The 2024 Genesis Invitational always delivers as one of the best tournaments of the year at one of the most iconic golf courses in the world.

Riviera Country Club is a par-71 that measures 7,322 yards. The fairways and rough consist of Kikuyu grass, and the greens are Poa Annua.

The Genesis Invitational field will consist of 70 players with the top-50 and ties making it to the weekend. 

Tiger Woods will also make his 2024 debut at Riviera this week. 

Past Winners at The Genesis Invitational

  • 2023: Jon Rahm (-12)
  • 2022: Joaquin Niemann (-19)
  • 2021: Max Homa (-12)
  • 2020: Adam Scott (-11)
  • 2019: J.B. Holmes (-14)
  • 2018: Bubba Watson (-12)
  • 2017: Dustin Johnson (-17)
  • 2016: Bubba Watson (-15)
  • 2015: James Hahn (-6)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

This week, I find ball striking to be especially important. Riviera requires golfers to play well in all facets of their game.

Ball striking includes both off the tee and approach, as one or the other will not be enough this week. Golfers will need to excel with both the driver and irons this week if they want to contend.

Last year Jon Rahm gained 12.5 strokes ball striking. In 2022, Joaquin Niemann, gained 9.1 strokes ball striking.

Total Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in Past 24 Rounds (Average per round)

  1. Adam Scott (+2.08)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.97)
  3. Xander Schauffele (+1.54)
  4. Justin Thomas (+1.30)
  5. Chris Kirk (+1.18)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

While off the tee is included in the ball striking stat, I am double-dipping here by incorporating SG: Off the Tee. Driving distance is very important, as the course is long, and there are many fairway bunkers that require length to carry.

Driving accuracy is also important because the Kikuya rough can be quite penal.

SG: OTT Round in Past 24 Rounds (Average per round)

  1. Kevin Yu (+0.98) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+0.79) 
  3. Rory McIlroy (+0.78)
  4. Byeong Hun An (+0.67) 
  5. Cameron Young (+0.62)

Strokes Gained: Putting (West Coast)

Riviera’s fast and firm greens are notoriously difficult. Putts from 10 feet and in are far from a guarantee, and this is an area where we will see many golfers struggle this week.

SG: Putting (West Coast) Past 24 Rounds (Average Per Round)

  1. Nick Taylor (+24.2)
  2. Brendon Todd (+23.1)
  3. Sahith Theegala (+18.7)
  4. Sam Burns (+18.5)
  5. Taylor Montgomery (+17.7)

3-Putt Avoidance (West Coast)

Poa can get really bumpy late in the day, making tough par saves late in the tournament even more difficult. Average three-putts per round are much higher at Riviera than the TOUR average. 

3-Putt Avoidance: Gained in Past 24 Rounds (Average Per Round)

  1. Sam Burns (0.8)
  2. Kurt Kitayama (+0.8)
  3. Keegan Bradley (+0.8)
  4. Nick Taylor (+1.0)
  5. Dabis Riley (+1.1)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

This event will be far from a birdie-fest. As mentioned, Riviera is a true all-around test.

With fairways relatively difficult to hit, playing out of the rough will create a lot of missed greens. Golfers will need to make some tricky up and downs to get away with par at Riviera.

SG: ARG: past 24 rounds (Average per round)

  1. Justin Thomas (+.78)
  2. Russell Henley (+.76) 
  3. Hideki Matsuyama (+62)
  4. J.J. Spaun (+.57)
  5. Beau Hossler (+.56)

Course History (SG: Total) (Average per round)

  1. Cameron Young
  2. Adam Svensson
  3. Mac Homa
  4. Viktor Hovland
  5. Patrick Cantlay
  6. Collin Morikawa
  7. Adam Scott
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Will Zalatoris
  10. Rory McIlroy

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: BS (28%), SG: OTT (24%), SG: Putting West Coast (17%), SG: ARG (17%), Course History (7%) and 3-Putt Avoidance West Coast (7%).

  1. Sahith Theegala (+3500)
  2. Max Homa (+1600)
  3. Justin Thomas (+2000)
  4. Xander Schauffele (+1400)
  5. Collin Morikawa (+1600)
  6. Scottie Scheffler (+750)
  7. Beau Hossler (+1800)
  8. Adam Scott (+4500)
  9. Viktor Hovland (+1200)
  10. Luke List (+15000)

2024 Genesis Invitational Picks

Justin Thomas +2500 (Bet365)

Justin Thomas was my headline bet last week, and I’ll be going back to him once again at Riviera. Although it wasn’t a spectacular performance, JT played well enough, finishing in a tie for 11th.

Statistically, Thomas didn’t play extremely well, however, he was solid in all facets of his game, which is a key at Riviera. He gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and even putting. After making a putter switch after the first round, the two-time PGA Champion was positive on the greens for the rest of the week.

Thomas has had a great deal of success at Riviera, and history has shown that players who have a strong track record at the course are more likely to have a repeat performance. In his past six starts at the Genesis Invitational, Thomas has three top-10 finishes, including a second-place finish in 2019. In that event, JT lost to J.B. Holmes on a windy Sunday when he played 36 holes. He finished 20th last season. 

Although he’s yet to get in the winner’s circle since the 2022 PGA Championship, JT has finished 3rd, 6th and 12th in his three 2024 starts. I believe the win is coming, and one of his best chances of the year will be this week.

Tony Finau +3000 (BetRivers)

Despite not finishing extremely well, Tony Finau once again hit the ball great at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He gained 5.8 strokes ball striking, which should provide him much more of an advantage at a course like Riviera as opposed to the shorter track in Pebble Beach. Finau was also excellent at Torrey Pines, finishing 6th and gaining 7.0 strokes on approach, which was good for 2nd in the field.

Finau has a strong track record at Riviera. In 2021, he lost in a playoff to Max Homa and in 2019, he finished runner-up to Bubba Watson. He ranks 14th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total per round at Riviera. The 34-year-old has finished in the top-20 of the event in three of his last five tries.

It’s been a slow start for the bigger names at the top of the leaderboard this season, but I believe a player like Finau can get it done this week in a signature event.

Sahith Theegala +3500 (DraftKings)

This season, Sahith Theegala is playing like one of the best and most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour. In his past two starts, he’s finished 20th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am and 5th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Last week at TPC Scottsdale, Theegala gained 5.6 strokes on approach and 2.6 strokes off the tee.

In addition to the strong recent ball striking, the former Haskins award winner is an excellent putter on West Coast POA, ranking 3rd in the field in the category only behind some fantastic putters.

Theegala has proven that he’s extremely comfortable playing on the West Coast where he grew up and went to college at Pepperdine. He won the Fortinet Championship in the fall and can be another player, similar to Max Homa, who wins at Silverado and Riviera.

Adam Scott +4500 (FanDuel) 

This number is a little shorter than I was hoping for, but Scott’s combination of recent form and course history at Riviera is too difficult to ignore this week.

Last week at TPC Scottsdale, the Australian gained 6.5 strokes on approach, which was his best performance in the category since June of 2022. Scott has started his 2024 season finishing 20th and 8th in his two starts and a recent iron switch seems to be working out beautifuly for the veteran. He switched from Miura irons to the Srixon ZX Mk II (3, 4), Srixon ZX 7 Mk II (5-9), which are more of a cavity backed iron. He also switched to a TaylorMade driver and has gained 1.8 and 1.7 strokes off the tee in his two starts this season.

Scott’s history at Riviera is remarkable. In his last eight trips to the course, he’s finished in the top eleven five times, including a win (2020) and a runner-up (2016). In the field, he ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Riviera.

At his best, Scott can compete with all of the top players on Tour despite being in the back nine of his incredible career.

Hideki Matsuyama +8000 (BetRivers) 

This is simply a “bet the number” play for me this week. Hideki Matsuyama has been a tough man to predict since his 2021 Masters victory and he’s been relatively inconsistent to kick off his 2024 campaign. In between some mixed results, the Japanese star has finishes of 13th at Torrey Pines and 22nd last week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

In the past, Matsuyama has played great at Riviera, however the results haven’t been as strong in the past three seasons. He has finishes of 4th (2015), 9th (2019) and 5th (2020), so he clearly has an eye for the layout.

Matsuyama is great with his long irons and is always one of the best players around the green, which are two of the most important factors at Riv. If Matsuyama can keep his driver in play, I think he will be around over the weekend.

Other Considerations

I decided to add this blurb this week of some players that I strongly considered but couldn’t fit on my card. If you need a break from some of my stalwarts such as JT, Hideki or Scott, a bet on one of these players looks great.

Ludvig Aberg +2200: Riviera should be a perfect course fit.

Sam Burns +2500: Playing extremely well at the moment and figures to be in the mix.

Cameron Young +4000: Played great here last year and seems to be finding some form. Driver can be a weapon at Riv.

Will Zalatoris :+5500: Still working his way back from injury, which is my concern, but Riviera is a golf course that will suit Zalatoris for the next decade plus.

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19th Hole

Why Ludvig Aberg is my new favorite player – GolfWRXers discuss

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20 hours ago

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Apr 24, 2024

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In our forums, our members have been discussing one of the new sensations in the world of golf – Ludvig Aberg. The 24-year-old finished solo second at the Masters a couple of weeks ago, and gained many plaudits, including from several WRXers.

One member, RoyalMustang, took to the forums to explain why Aberg is now their favorite player, saying:

“I loved the way the Ludvig was out there, having a great time, not taking himself or the situation too seriously. Even after the double at 11, he was like “well, that’s golf!” Loose and relaxed: that’s the way to play. It’s obvious he loves what he’s doing, he loves the big moments, and he loves being a part of it all.

Arnold Palmer was viewed that way. Just like Brooks Robinson was forever viewed as not just a great baseball player, but a great human being and friend to Baltimore.”

And our members have been reacting and sharing their positive takes on the young Swede.

Here are a few posts from the thread, but make sure to check out the entire discussion and have your say at the link below.

  • redfirebird08: “Ludvig has a great attitude, a great smile, and a great golf swing.”
  • otto6457: “I’m very lucky to have talked with Ludde several times at the Rawls Course at Texas Tech.  He’s a truly nice guy and very friendly.  Always said hello when we passed each other in the club house and was always smiling. Watching him hit balls on the range was a joy.  He has “that sound” and trajectory to die for.  There were many times he was out on the range in 30+ mph winds just hitting the most beautiful shots that just seemed to ignore the wind.  World class ball striker. And yes……..I am a fan boy.”
  • konklifer: “I like him. In an era of endless waggles and laboring, his swing and pace of play are a joy to watch.

Entire Thread: “Why Ludvig Aberg is my new favorite player – GolfWRXers discuss”

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19th Hole

‘Absolutely crazy’ – Major champ lays into Patrick Cantlay over his decision on final hole of RBC Heritage

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3 days ago

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Apr 22, 2024

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Over the past year or so, PGA Tour star Patrick Cantlay has taken a great deal of criticism for his pace of play.

Now, Cantlay is once again under fire for a questionable decision he made on Sunday at the RBC Heritage.

After the horn sounded to suspend play due to darkness, Cantlay, whose ball was in the fairway on the 18th hole, had a decision to make. With over 200 yards into the green and extreme winds working against the shot, conventional wisdom would be to wait until Monday morning to hit the shot.

On the other hand, if he could finish the hole, he may just want to get the event over with so he could get out of Hilton Head.

Curiously, Cantlay chose neither of those options. After hitting 3-wood into the green, and still coming up short, the former FedEx Cup champion chose to mark his ball and return to chip and putt on Monday morning.

Ian Woosnam, who was watching from home, took to X to give his thoughts on Cantlay’s decision-making.

Cantlay would end up getting up and down for par when play resumed at 8:00 Monday morning.

Following his round, Cantlay explained his decision to wait to hit his third shot the next morning:

“I really did want to finish last night, so I felt like if I could get the ball up there maybe in an easier spot, maybe I would have finished, but as I got the ball up near the green, I realized it would be easier to finish this morning. That’s what I decided to do.”

GolfWRX has reached out to Patrick Cantlay’s management team for a response to Woosnam’s comments.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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3 days ago

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Apr 22, 2024

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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