19th Hole

Vincenzi’s American Express betting preview: Jason Day to continue to thrive on West Coast

Published

4 months ago

Jan 16, 2024

The PGA Tour heads to California this weekend to play the 2024 American Express.

The tournament is played at three different courses: PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Course and La Quinta Country Club.

Therefore, each golfer will play two rounds at PGA West Stadium Course, one round at PGA West Nicklaus Course, and one round at La Quinta Country Club. The Stadium Course is a 7,113-yard par 72 that was designed by Pete Dye in 1986. The Nicklaus Course is a Par 72 measuring 7,159 yards. La Quinta Country Club is a par 72 measuring 7,060 yards. All of the courses are short for a Par 72 and typically play easy, resulting in some very low winning scores.

The 2024 American Express field is a full-field event comprised of 156 golfers. The field is the strongest it’s been in recent memory, with some notable entrants to the event including Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Jason Day, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler and Shane Lowry. Daniel Berger will also be making his return to the PGA Tour after being on medical leave since 2022.

Past Winners at The American Express

2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
2022: Hudson Swafford (-23)
2021: Si Woo Kim (-23)
2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
2019: Adam Long (-26)
2018: Jon Rahm (-22)
2017: Hudson Swafford (-20)
2016: Jason Dufner (-25)
2015: Bill Haas (-22)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for PGA West to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

The American Express is another tournament where distance off the tee is not going to be a major factor. With none of the three courses being long this week, strong iron players tend to do very well at PGA West.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+24.8)
Scottie Scheffler (+23.7)
Sam Ryder (+22.4)
Erik Van Rooyen (+20.5)
Eric Cole (+19.4)

Opportunities Gained

All three courses this week are among the easiest on Tour. In order to win, golfers are going to have to go very low. Creating as many chances as possible to make birdies from 15 feet and in this week will be crucial.

Total Opportunities Gained in past 24 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+40.5)
Chris Kirk (+22.7)
Xander Schauffele (+22.5)
Justin Thomas (+22.2)
J.T. Poston (+22.0)

Proximity 150-175

Approach shots from 150-175 are the most common yardages year after year at The American Express. 24% of approach shots come from this range as opposed to the Tour average of 20.3%.

Proximity 150-175 in past 24 rounds:

Akshay Bhatia (+14.9)
Xander Schauffele (+11.7)
Sam Ryder (+11.5)
Taylor Pendrith (+11.3)
Mark Hubbard (+11.2)

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

With small greens, there are very few three-putts in this event. Golfers will need to ball strike their way to low scores with smaller greens than Tour average.

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in past 24 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+41.4)
Erik Van Rooyen (+31.1)
Jhonnatan Vegas (+29.9)
Patrick Cantlay (+29.5)
Xander Schauffele (+28.0)

SG: Pete Dye

With two of four rounds on the Pete Dye-designed PGA West, it will be important to target players who excel on Pete Dye tracks. Golfers with good history at these styles of course tend to pop up on leaderboards of Dye designs on a regular basis.

Total Strokes Gained: Pete Dye in past 24 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+52.5)
Patrick Cantlay (+47.0)
Xander Schauffele (+41.4)
Sungjae Im (+39.1)
Justin Thomas (+38.4)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (27%); Opportunities Gained (22%); SG: Ball Striking (22%); Proximity 150-175 (12%); and SG: Pete Dye (17%)

Scottie Scheffler (+650)
Xander Schauffele (+1000)
Patrick Cantlay (+1000)
Sam Ryder (+12000)
Eric Cole (+3500)
Chris Kirk (+3500)
Shane Lowry (+6000)
Doug Ghim (+12000)
Erik Van Rooyen (+10000)
Alex Smalley (+6500)

2024 American Express Picks

Jason Day +3500 (FanDuel)

Jason Day kicked off his 2024 season with a solid performance at The Sentry, finishing in a tie for 10th. The veteran will now get ready for the west coast swing, which has historically been the stretch of the season where Day has played his best golf, and last season was no exception. The Australian finished 18th, 7th, 5th and 9th at the American Express, Farmers Insurance, Waste Management Phoenix Open and Genesis Invitational. Day showed his preference for putting on west coast greens during that stretch gaining 4.9, 5.8, 3.7 and 4.3 strokes putting respectively.

Day doesn’t typically play at PGA West, but he did last year, finishing 18th in his second ever start at the event. He also showed he can win a low scoring event at last year’s AT&T Byron Nelson, shooting -23 for the event. Another reason to believe Day will have success this week is his history on Pete Dye designed courses. In his past 50 rounds, he ranks 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks.

I believe Day will build on his resurgent 2023 and contend in one or more of these west coast tournaments.

Sam Burns+3500 (DraftKings)

Sam Burns has some encouraging history at the American Express. In his four starts at the course, he has finishes of 18th, 6th and 11th to go along with a missed cut. He also has loved the west coast swing, with a 3rd place finish at Riviera (2021), a 6th place finish at the WMPO (2023), and a 7th at the Fortinet (2020).

Sam Burns has been consistent on Pete Dye designs, ranking 8th in his past 24 rounds on Dye designed courses. The fact that he will play two of the four rounds at the stadium course, including the final round, gives me confidence in his chances to win if he gets in contention.

The American Express can turn into a putting contest, and if it does, Burns has the ability to beat anyone in the field.

Tony Finau +4000 (FanDuel)

Tony Finau is another player who’s done some of his best work on the west coast. In 2021, he finished 2nd at both the Farmers Insurance Open and the Genesis Invitational. In total, Finau has seven top-5 finishes on the west coast including the American Express in 2021, where he was narrowly defeated by Si Woo Kim down the stretch.

Finau didn’t start his season well at the Sentry but managed to gain strokes on approach and with the putter. I believe a trip to a course that he’s contended on in the past will serve him well and is one of the most talented players in the field. Finau has also showed that he loves Pete Dye designs in the past, ranking 9th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds.

Although he’s been inconsistent, the win equity Finau offers is too tempting to ignore at this price.

Adam Hadwin +6500 (FanDuel)

Adam Hadwin is the type of player who consistently performs well on his favorite courses on the PGA Tour. The rotation of courses at the American Express certainly fit that description. In his past seven starts at the event, Hadwin has finished in the top 20 five times, including four of those in the top 6.

Hadwin missed the cut at last week’s Sony Open, but he was top-20 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach in the first round. He’s also shown in the past his Sony Open results don’t translate to the American Express. In 2019, the Canadian was 59th at Sony, losing strokes on approach for the week, and finished runner-up at the American Express the following week.

Hadwin hasn’t won since 2017 and it feels as if he’s long overdue for a win. Three of his seven top-3 finishes on Tour have come at this event. If there’s anywhere that I feel confident that he can get it done, it’s PGA West.

Alex Noren +8000 (DraftKings)

Alex Noren has sneakily played some fantastic golf since the end of the 2023 PGA Tour season. In November, he finished 2nd at the Butterfield Bermuda and 23rd at the RSM Classic. He also finished 3rd at the Shriners in October, which is a course and region that has plenty of similarities to what we will see this week at the American Express.

In addition to the 3rd at TPC Summerlin (2023), Noren also has a 2nd at the Farmers (2018) which ended in a six-hole playoff loss to Jason Day, a sixth at the WMPO (2022) and a 12th at the Genesis Invitational.

The Swede has yet to win on the PGA Tour but has won ten times on the DP World Tour. Noren certainly has the talent to win and is showing signs of returning to the form that made him a Ryder Cup participant in 2018.

Erik Van Rooyen +11000 (FanDuel)

Erik Van Rooyen won in Mexico at the end of 2023 and hasn’t showed any signs of slowing down since. He finished 22nd at the Sentry, gaining 3.3 strokes on approach. He followed it up with an even better iron performance last week at the Sony Open, gaining 4.8 strokes on approach.

EVR finished 6th at the American Express last year despite being in poor form at the time, missing cuts in six of his past seven cuts entering the event. The South African has proven he can win birdie-fests in the past and this is an event where players have consistently won at triple digit odds.

In his past 24 rounds, Van Rooyen ranks 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 2nd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Patton Kizzire +27000 (FanDuel)

Patton Kizzire finished 11th at the American Express last year after a 76th place finish at the Sony Open. He finished 22nd in 2022 and has seemingly begun to figure the courses out if his gradual improvement is any indication.

Kizzire has two top-5’s at the Shriners and a 7th place finish at Torrey Pines in his career, so he’s no stranger to playing well on the west coast. Kizzire has also played well at similar events as Hudson Swafford, who’s won the American Express twice.

A two-time PGA Tour winner, Kizzire is the type of long shot who I believe can pull off an upset if he gets involved over the weekend at PGA West.

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19th Hole

Gary Player claims this is what ‘completely ruined’ Tiger Woods’ career

Published

8 hours ago

May 1, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

While speaking with KW Golf, golf legend Gary Player said that he believes swing coaches ruined the career of Tiger Woods.

“The US Open at Pebble Beach, he won by 15 shots. You know what that’s like? It’s like running the 100 meters in seven seconds. The next week, he’s having a lesson from a man who, I don’t think, if he played in the Masters, could break 80.”

“And then he goes to another guy who couldn’t probably break 85 in the Masters with the pressure, or the British Open or the PGA on the final day. And he’s having lessons from them.”

“Why did Tiger do that? He was so good, but I understand he wanted to get better,” Player went on. “If he had just gone along and never changed, he would have won at least 22.. He would’ve gone down as the greatest athlete the world has ever seen.”

In 2008, Woods had won 14 majors and was 33 years old. It would take him eleven years to win his 15th at the 2019 Masters.

In addition to the swing coach issue, there are many other issues throughout the career of Woods that golf fans will look back on and wonder “what if.”

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

2 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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19th Hole

LIV star splits with swing coach after working together for 14 years

Published

2 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After fourteen years together, LIV Golf’s Adrian Meronk has decided to part ways with his swing coach, Matthew Tipper.

On Monday, Tipper announced the split via social media.

pic.twitter.com/Q6klxxgyW0

— Matthew Tipper (@Matthew__Tipper) April 29, 2024

“After 14 years sometimes things just come to an end. Last week Adrian decided he wanted to go a new way and I have to respect that decision. I’m proud of everything we achieved together.

“I knew in 2010 he was a great talent and he has only gone to prove that all over the world. To Pietro Gobinho and Stuart Beck, thank you for being amazing caddies when Adrian needed you. Your support and co-operation has been invaluable and I thank you both.

“I want to publicly thank Adrian for allowing me to sit in the best seat in the house for 14 years.

“It’s now time to start my new chapter in the USA alongside my mentor James Sieckmann and I’m excited to go to my first Korn Ferry Tour event later next month. As always tomorrow we begin again.”

Meronk is having a poor season by his standards on LIV. The reigning DP World Tour player had some solid finishes early in the year, finishing T9 and T6 at LIV Las Vegas and LIV Jeddah, but missed the cut at the Masters and has failed to crack the top-10 in his past three LIV starts.