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Vincenzi: Sony Open First Round Leader picks

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The first full-field event of the 2023 golf season is upon us as the PGA Tour stays in Hawaii to play the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. The short par 70 (7,054) sets up well for accurate players off the tee who can dial it in with their irons and catch a hot putter for the week.

Since 2010, the winners at Waialae have gained 48.6% of their strokes against the field putting, which is the highest of any course on TOUR. In the past five editions of the tournament, there have been nine first-round leaders or co-leaders. Of the nine, four have come from the morning wave, and five have come from the afternoon wave. It appears there is no real advantage to either starting time historically but that may be impacted this year as a result of the weather.

As of Tuesday, the wind looks as if it may be a factor during round one. The early starters should see winds 12 MPH with gusts up to 17 MPH. The afternoon starters will have the more difficult draw. Winds will be around 20 MPH with gusts up to 28 MPH. For this reason, I’d favor AM starters but wouldn’t rule out the PM wave completely.

Sony Open First-Round-Leader Selections

Billy Horschel +8000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:20 a.m. Local Time

Last week, we saw veteran Chris Kirk benefit from having some time off. I feel the same may apply to Billy Horschel.

Horschel ended 2023 summer strong, finishing 13th at the 3M Open and 4th at the Wyndham Championship. He then went over to the DP World Tour and finished in the top 20 in three of his four starts, including a T14 at the Alfred Dunhill Links. The busy schedule caught up with the 37-year-old, and he missed the cut at the RSM Classic.

If Billy is recharged, Waialae should be a good course for him to perform well at. He finished 7th here in 2021, posting four rounds of 66 or better (65, 66, 66, 65). Horschel should enter 2024 with a chip on his shoulder.

Justin Suh +8000 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 1 p.m Local Time

Last season, Justin Suh seemed to have a habit of starting quickly out of the gates and fizzle over the weekend. Therefore, to start 2024, I’ll be looking to target him in the first-round-leader market rather than the outright market.

The numbers would indicate that Suh being a fast starter is indeed the case. In his past 24 rounds, the USC product ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in round one. A short, scoreable course should suit Suh well this week.

Taiga Semikawa +10000 (Caesars)

First-Round Tee Time: 9 a.m Local Time

Taiga Semikawa has been scorching hot of late, finishing in the top ten of four of his past five starts on the Japan Tour, inlcuding a dominant victory in his most recent start. The 23-year-old is busting at the seams with talent, and I believe will eventually become a factor on the PGA Tour. Waialae should provide a pretty comfortable layout for the young Japanese star.

Did I mention he was named after Tiger Woods?

Jhonnatan Vegas +12500 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:30 a.m Local Time

I am absolutely ecstatic to have Jhonnatan Vegas back on the PGA Tour after an injury hiatus, as he will be featured in my first-round-leader column regularly in 2024.

After eight months off, the Venezuelan played twice this fall on the DP World Tour and looked to have quickly returned to form. After a missed cut to shake off the rust in his first start, he finished 17th at the ISPS Handa Australian Open.

Vegas has historically been a fast starter. In his past 50 rounds, the 39-year-old ranks 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in round one.

Harry Hall +14000 (Bet365)

First-Round Tee Time: 1:10 p.m Local Time

Harry Hall finished 28th in his debut at the Sony Open last season, posting four rounds in the 60’s including an opening round 66. The Englishman has been excellent on resort courses and also finished 3rd (and really should have won) the Charles Schwab at Colonial which shares strong leaderboard correlation with Waialae.

I tend to favor good putters for first-round leader bets and Hall ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting in the first round in his past 24 rounds.

Nico Echavarria +14000 (Bet365)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:10 a.m Local Time

Nico Echavarria has his specialty courses on Tour, and there’s plenty of reason to believe that Waialae could be one of them. He finished 12th at the course last year and his season started strong with a 25th place finish at The Sentry last week in a loaded field.

Last season, the Colombian won the Puerto Rico Open while missing four straight cuts prior to the win and missing two cuts immediately after demonstrating his love for the coast. As Ernest Hemingway once said, “A man is never lost at sea”.

Joel Dahmen +15000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:40 a.m Local Time

Joel Dahmen had a strong fall, finishing 13th at the Sanderson Farms Championship and 7th at the Shriners Children’s Open, gaining 4.6 strokes on approach at TPC Summerlin, which is the most he’d gained since November of 2022.

Dahmen has had some solid starts at Waialae, finishing 22nd at the course in 2019 and 12th in 2020, closing with a 4th round 66.

The fan-favorite will be looking to hit the ground running it 2024.

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19th Hole

Tiger explains why golf has ‘negative connotations’ for daughter Sam

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While Tiger Woods’ son, Charlie, has certainly inherited his father’s love for golf, his daughter, Sam, has not.

On Wednesday, Tiger made an appearance on The Today Show with Carson Daly and explained his daughter’s relationship with golf.

“Golf has negative connotations for her. When she was growing up, golf took daddy away from her. I had to pack, I had to leave, and I was gone for weeks. So, there were negative connotations to it.

“We developed our own relationship and our own rapport outside of golf. We do things that doesn’t involve golf. Meanwhile, my son and I, everything we do is golf related.”

The nine-minute interview touches on plenty of other subjects, such as Tiger’s relationship with his late father, Earl.

It’s arguably the most open we’ve seen the 15-time major champion in an interview and is most definitely worth watching.

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Gary Player claims this is what ‘completely ruined’ Tiger Woods’ career

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While speaking with KW Golf, golf legend Gary Player said that he believes swing coaches ruined the career of Tiger Woods.

“The US Open at Pebble Beach, he won by 15 shots. You know what that’s like? It’s like running the 100 meters in seven seconds. The next week, he’s having a lesson from a man who, I don’t think, if he played in the Masters, could break 80.”

“And then he goes to another guy who couldn’t probably break 85 in the Masters with the pressure, or the British Open or the PGA on the final day. And he’s having lessons from them.”

“Why did Tiger do that? He was so good, but I understand he wanted to get better,” Player went on. “If he had just gone along and never changed, he would have won at least 22.. He would’ve gone down as the greatest athlete the world has ever seen.”

In 2008, Woods had won 14 majors and was 33 years old. It would take him eleven years to win his 15th at the 2019 Masters.

In addition to the swing coach issue, there are many other issues throughout the career of Woods that golf fans will look back on and wonder “what if.”

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Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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