The PGA Tour moves to Honolulu as we stay in Hawaii for one more week to play the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. Waialae is a 7,044-yard par 70 that was built in 1927 and has annually featured a TOUR event since 1965.  The Sony Open is the first full-field event of the year.

The Sony Open field is comprised of 144 golfers. Some notable names in the field include Ludvig Aberg, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Brian Harman, Corey Conners, Billy Horschel, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama and Will Zalatoris.

The Sony Open is typically a low-scoring affair, and we should see plenty of birdies. Wind is about all the course has in terms of defense, so it may prove wise to keep an eye on the forecast this week.

Past Winners at the Sony Open

• 2023: Si Woo Kim (-18)
• 2022: Hideki Matsuyama (-23)
• 2021: Kevin Na (-21)
• 2020: Cameron Smith (-11)
• 2019: Matt Kuchar (-22)
• 2018: Patton Kizzire (-17)
• 2017: Justin Thomas (-27)
• 2016: Fabian Gomez (-20)
• 2015: Jimmy Walker (-23)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Waialae Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Green sizes are much smaller at Waialae than we saw last week at Kapalua. Golfers will also be hitting greens in regulation at a far lower clip, therefore requiring iron play to be even more sharp in order to go low.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Lucas Glover (+20.6)
2. Hideki Matsuyama (+19.2)
3. Gary Woodland (+18.9)
4. Chez Reavie (+18.3)
5. Ryan Moore (+16.5)

Good Drives Gained

Not only are the greens much smaller at Waialae than we saw at Kapalua, but the fairways are also a lot smaller as well. Last week, golfers were spraying errant drives with little consequence; that won’t be the case this week.

While missing the fairway might not be incredibly penal, those who split the middle on the narrow fairways will be rewarded with flat lies and straightforward approach shots.

Total Good Drives Gained in past 24 rounds:

1. Tyler Duncan (+25.0)
2. Josh Teater (+23.8)
3. Andrew Putnam (+23.6)
4. J.J. Spaun (+23.5) 
5. Martin Laird (+20.7)

Strokes Gained: Short Game

With small fairways and greens, it is to be expected that golfers will have to scramble around the green at one point or another. Strokes Gained: Short Game encompasses both chipping around the green and putting to account for tough par putts while scrambling.

Historically, players with great hands and short games have had success here (Justin Thomas, Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, Cameron Smith, Kevin Na).

Strokes Gained: Short Game in past 24 rounds:

1. Sahith Theegala (+30.3)
2. Taylor Montgomery (+28.0)
3. J.T. Poston (+26.6)
4. Ludvig Aberg (+25.2)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+25.1)
   

Birdie or Better Gained

While Waialae presents its fair share of challenges, the winning score will likely be somewhere in the -20 to -27 range; therefore, birdies are a must.  In an event where par isn’t good enough on most holes, golfers who can get hot and go low need to be targeted this week.

Birdie or Better Gained past 24 rounds:

1. Eric Cole (+39.9)
2. Ludvig Aberg (+29.0)
3. J.T. Poston (+23.7) 
4. Justin Suh (+19.9)
5. Luke List (+19.3)

Course History

Course history seems to be particularly important at Waialae, as 17 of the past 18 winners have played the course previously before hoisting the trophy. It is also common to see similar players pop up on the leaderboard year after year in Honolulu, so a bit of course history should be factored in.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds (per round, minimum 16 rounds):

1. Corey Conners (+1.8)
2. Justin Rose (+1.7)
3. Chris Kirk (+1.4) 
4. Webb Simpson (+1.2)
5. Russell Henley (+1.2)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (27.5%) Good Drives Gained (22.5%); SG: Short Game (18%); Course History (18%); and Birdie or Better Gained (14%)

1. Russell Henley (+2200)
2. Eric Cole (+3500)
3. Justin Rose (+4000)
4. Brian Harman (+2500)
5. Adam Svensson (+6000)
6. J.T. Poston (+4000)
7. J.J. Spaun (+5500)
8. Alex Noren (+5500)
9. Ben Griffin (+7000)
10. Stephan Jaeger (+5000)

2024 Sony Open Picks

Corey Conners +3300 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners played in last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions, finishing in 33rd place. History would indicate that just playing at Kapalua is a strong indicator of success at the Sony Open, with 17 of the past 25 winners having done so. The Canadian finished strong and shot 67 (-6) in his final round Sunday. In his final round, he led the field in approach (+2.6 strokes) and ranked 4th for the week in Strokes Gained: Approach. 

Another strong indicator of success at the Sony Open has been past success at Waialae. In Conners’ last four starts at the event, he’s finished 3rd, 12th, 11th and 12th. C0nners ranks first in Strokes Gained: Total at the course in his past 24 rounds. 

Conners historically struggles with the putter, but that hasn’t been the case at Waialae. In his past four starts at the course, he’s gained over a stroke per event on the field on the greens. 

After getting the rust off last week at The Sentry, Conners should once again find himself in the mix at one of his favorite courses on the PGA Tour.

Chris Kirk +3500 (FanDuel)

Chris Kirk is fresh off his sixth PGA Tour win. While I don’t typically back players to repeat immediately after a win, Kirk seems like an ideal candidate to go back-to-back in the Hawaii swing. 

Kirk has been fantastic at Waialae in the past, boasting finishes of 3rd (2023), 2nd (2021) and 10th (2018). In his past 24 rounds at the course, the 37-year-old ranks 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total.

The veteran comes into the week booming with confidence. He ranks 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (past 24 rounds) and is playing some of the best golf of his career. Justin Thomas won both The Sentry and the Sony Open in 2017, and five others have achieved the same feat (JT, Cam Smith, Zach Johnson, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els and Jim Furyk).  Kirk will look to add his name to the record books in 2023.

Byeong Hun An +4000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An put in a fantastic performance in his season debut at last week’s The Sentry. The South Korean finished in a tie for 3rd and gained 4.6 strokes from tee to green. An also rolled it well, showing his affinity for putting well on a similar green type to what he’ll see this week.

An finished 12th at last year’s Sony Open in his tournament debut. In addition to the encouraging start at Waialae, the 32-year-old also plays many of the comparable courses to Waialae well also. He has a 2nd place finish at Sedgefield Country Club and a 7th place finish at the RBC Heritage.

Since regaining his PGA Tour card in 2022, An has gotten progressively better. A first PGA Tour win for the veteran feels extremely close.

Cameron Davis +5000 (BetMGM)

Cameron Davis struggled mightily throughout his first three rounds of The Sentry. However, the Aussie shot a 65 (-8) on Sunday and most of his strokes throughout the week were lost around the green. For his career, Davis has had a solid around the green game so that seems to be an outlier.

Davis ranks 14th in Strokes Gained: Total at Waialae and finished 9th in 2020, so he has some familiarity with the course. He’s also had a good deal of success at other similar tracks. The 28-year-old has a 7th place finish at Wyndham (2023) and a 3rd at the RBC Heritage (2022).

Davis is a birdie-maker with winning upside and will look to join Cameron Smith as an Australian to win at Waialae.

Seamus Power +20000 (FanDuel)

2023 was a tough year for Seamus Power. The Irishman has been struggling mightily but was able to get into last week’s Sentry due to his win at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship during the 2022 swing season. The fact that Power played last week and was able to potentially shake off some rust could be a good sign for his chances this week at the Sony Open.

Power finished 3rd at Waialae back in 2022, and is a perfect course fit for him when he is in form. The 36-year-old thrives on coastal Bermuda and loves short courses where he can dial in his wedges and go low.

It’s unclear if Power has found anything in terms of form, but at triple digits in a field that doesn’t feature many of the best in the world, it’s certainly worth chancing.

Joel Dahmen +30000 (FanDuel)

Joel Dahmen is another player who struggled in 2023 but showed some signs of a resurgence during the 2023 swing season. He finished 13th at the Sanderson Farms Championship and 7th at the Shriners Children’s Open, gaining 4.6 strokes on approach at TPC Summerlin, which is the most he’d gained since November of 2022.

If he’s back to what he was pre-funk, Dahmen should set up well for Waialae. He finished 22nd at the course in 2019 and 12th in 2020, and plays many of the comparable courses effectively. The 36-year-old has finished 5th at the RSM Classic (2022), 12th at the RBC Heritage (2022) and won a coastal event at the Corales Puntacana.

Dahmen is a player at long odds who has winning upside if he gets into contention over the weekend.

Nico Echavarria +40000 (FanDuel)

Nico Echavarria is a player that specializes in coastal birdie fests. Last season, the Colombian won the Puerto Rico Open while missing four straight cuts prior to the win and missing two cuts immediately after. He also finished 12th at Waialae two months prior while missing two cuts before and four after.

Echavarria will have the benefit this year of playing the week before at the Sentry, which has been a benefit for most players at this event. The 29-year-old got off to a solid start at Kapalua, finishing 25th and posting a score of -20 for the week.

If the players at the top of the market fail to contend, Nico has experience winning tournaments in a similar environment.