The PGA Tour makes it return this week as we head to the Kapalua Plantation Course in Maui to play the Sentry. The course is a unique par 73 measuring 7,515 yards.

The Tournament of Champions is a no-cut event and usually plays pretty easy. Six of the past seven winners have finished with a score of -22 or better, and the 2022 champion, Cameron Smith, set the tournament record by finishing at -34. Jon Rahm went low in 2023 as well, finishing at -27. Wide fairways and soft greens make the event scoreable, but coastal wind and elevation changes can occasionally make some shots difficult.

The field will feature 59 of the world’s top golfers including Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Tony Finau and Jordan Spieth. The new qualification rules allow for anyone in the top 50 in the final FedEx Cup points last season to take part in the event as well as winners from last season. 

Past Winners at The Sentry

• 2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
• 2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
• 2021: Harris English (-25)
• 2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
• 2019: Xander Schauffele (-23)
• 2018: Dustin Johnson (-24)
• 2017: Justin Thomas (-22)
• 2016: Jordan Spieth (-30)
• 2015: Patrick Reed (-21)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Kapalua’s Plantation Course to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

With Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentages extremely high at Kapalua (78.9%), just getting on the putting surface won’t cut it. In a very low-scoring event, golfers will need to have their irons and wedges dialed in to provide scoring opportunities.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+32.3
2. Lucas Glover (+29.5) 
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+23.2) 
4. J.T. Poston (+22.8) 
5. Xander Schauffele (+21.9)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

With fairways being wide and easy to hit, bombers should be able to let it rip off the tee this week. Golfers with a strong off-the-tee game should end up with a wedge in their hand for their approach shot which will give them an advantage on the shorter hitters. 

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:

1. Ludvig Aberg (+24.7)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+24.2)
3. Viktor Hovland (+21.6)
4. Byeong Hun An (+18.8)
5. Corey Conners (+17.8)

Proximity 100-125 Yards

With a good deal of short par 4s on the course and easy-to-hit fairways, golfers will have wedges in their hands looking to attack pins. Historically, wedge play has been a major factor in determining a winner in Maui, and I expect that to continue in the 2024 edition.

Proximity 100-125 in past 24 rounds:

1. Hideki Matsuyama (+13.0)
2. Camilo Villegas (+12.4) 
3. Brendon Todd (+10.7)
4. Lucas Glover (+7.8)
5. Russell Henley (+7.7)
   

Strokes Gained: Par 5

Taking advantage of all of the par 5s will be crucial this week. Historically, par-5 scoring has been more indicative of the winner at this tournament than par-3 or par-4 scoring. The player who posts the lowest cumulative score on the par-5 holes will put themselves in a good position to win come Sunday.

Total Strokes Gained: Par 5 in Past 24 rounds

1. Cameron Young (+13.6)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+11.8)
3. Erik Van Rooyen (+11.1)
4. Lee Hodges (+11.0)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+10.3) 

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) (Velcro)

The Bermudagrass greens at Kapalua are notoriously slow. In a low-scoring event, golfers will need to make a lot of putts to win, and those who prefer putting on slow Bermuda should have the advantage. There have been a good deal of elite putters (Smith, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth) who have had great success at Kapalua in the past.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

1. Andrew Putnam (+1.5)
2. Jordan Spieth (+0.8)
3. Patrick Cantlay (+0.6)
4. Xander Schauffele (+0.5)
5. J.T.  Poston (+0.4)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%) SG: OTT (20%); SG: Par 5 (20%); Prox 100-125 (15%); and SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) (Velcro) (15%)

1. Scottie Scheffler (+1400)
2. Collin Morikawa (+2800)
3. Xander Schauffele (+1800)
4. Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
5. Russell Henley (+2000)
6. Viktor Hovland (+1200)
7. Lucas Glover (+2000)
8. Adam Svensson (+6000)
9. Tom Kim (+2000)
10. J.T. Poston (+1200)

2024 Sentry Tournament of Champions Picks

Jordan Spieth +2800 (BetRivers):

Jordan Spieth was winless in 2023 but continued to play solid golf, finishing 27th in the FedEx Cup standings. The three-time major champion played in Tiger Woods’ Hero World Challenge and showed that he’s been working on his game in the off-season. Spieth finished 6th in the event and shot four rounds under par.

Jordan has had success at Kapalua, winning the tournament in 2016 and also has a 2nd (2014), 3rd (2017) and 9th (2018). In his past 24 rounds at the course, Spieth ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Total amongst those playing in the event.

The PGA Tour could certainly benefit from a star player like Jordan Spieth starting off 2024 hot, and I believe he has a chance to get an early win at The Sentry.

Rickie Fowler +3500 (DraftKings):

Rickie Fowler is coming off his best season in a long while and his work with Butch Harmon has clearly paid dividends. The 35-year-old broke through for a victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and had a few additional close calls, including a fantastic performance at the U.S. Open where he finished runner-up to Wyndham Clark.

Fowler has been incredibly consistent over the course of his career at Kapalua. He’s played the event four times since 2013, and boasts finishes of 6th (2013), 5th (2016), 4th (2018) and 5th (2020). It appears that when Rickie is playing well, he finishes near the top of the Sentry.

Rickie certainly has the type of game that should thrive at Kapalua. He is solid with his wedges (20th in the field) and putts well on slow Bermudagrass greens (9th in the field). The PGA Tour season could get off to a flying start with one of the most popular players on Tour winning the first signature event of the season.

Jason Day +5000 (BetRivers):

Jason Day had a resurgent 2023, winning for the first time in five years at the AT&T Byron Nelson.  and if his fall has been any indication, he has no plans on slowing down in 2024. He missed a few cuts after the win, but still managed a runner-up finish at the Open Championship.

Day’s strong season continued into the fall. The Australian and his partner Lydia Ko won the Grant Thornton Invitational, which was closely contested and likely tested his nerves a bit down the stretch. Day then finished 11th at the Hero World Challenge but was in contention going into Sunday prior to a disappointing 74 in the final round.

Day hasn’t played at Kapalua since 2019, but prior to that, he had some encouraging results at the course. He finished 3rd in 2015 and 10th in 2016. Additionally, Australians have won six times in the past.

I don’t typically love backing Day in events where the winner needs to go extremely low, but the 36-year-old managed to reach -23 in his win in Texas last season. A Jason Day who’s shown signs of solid recent form at 50-1 in a 59-man field is too much value to pass up to start the season.