19th Hole

Vincenzi’s RSM Classic betting preview: Experienced heads likely to contend at Sea Island

Published

8 months ago

Nov 13, 2023

The final full-field event of the 2023 fall season has arrived. The PGA TOUR heads just south of Augusta for the RSM Classic at Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside and Plantation courses) in St. Simons Island, Georgia.

Each golfer will play three rounds on the Seaside course and one round on the Plantation course.

The Seaside course is a par-70 layout measuring 7,005 yards, and the Plantation course is a par-72 setup coming in at 7,062 yards. The Seaside course, which was redesigned by Tom Fazio, plays more like a coastal links, while the Plantation course is similar to a tree-lined parkland course. Both feature Bermudagrass greens and will be very scorable. The past five winners of the event have all finished between -19 and -22.

Some notable players in the field include Brian Harman, Ludvig Aberg, Si Woo Kim, Akshay Bhatia, Cameron Young, Billy Horschel, Matt Kuchar, Russell Henley, Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at The RSM Classic

2022: Adam Svensson (-19)
2021: Talor Gooch (-22)
2020: Robert Streb (-19)
2019: Tyler Duncan (-19)
2018: Charles Howell III (-19)
2017: Austin Cook (-21)
2016: Mackenzie Hughes (-17)
2015: Kevin Kisner (-22)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Sea Island Golf Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

The greens at Seaside are big, so it will be important to stick approach shots close to avoid having to make difficult two-putt par saves. In what should be a birdie-fest, golfers will need to stick their approach shots to contend.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

Sam Ryder (+24.8)
Russell Knox (+22.4)
J.T. Poston (+20.3)
Eric Cole (+18.8)
Alex Smalley (+18.4)

Good Drives Gained

Length really isn’t a factor at either course. Looking at the past winners at Sea Island, they’re all accurate golfers off of the tee who know how to find the fairway. However, over the past few years, “Good Drives Gained” has been a much more predictive statistic at this event than “Fairways Gained.”

Total Good Drives Gained in past 24 rounds:

Russell Henley (+22.7)
Brendon Todd (+21.8)
Tyler Duncan (+21.7)
Martin Laird (+20.6)
J.J. Spaun (+20.5)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass

This tournament could become a putting contest if the winds aren’t strong this week. Historically, the winners of the RSM Classic are great Bermudagrass putters (Simpson, Kisner and Hughes).

Total Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda in past 24 rounds:

Maverick McNealy (+27.7)
Chad Ramey (+25.3)
Martin Trainer (+23.0)
Justin Suh (+22.7)
Taylor Montgomery (+22.5)

Birdie or Better Gained

With birdies (and potentially some eagles) likely to come in abundance, pars aren’t going to cut it at Sea Island. I anticipate the winning score to be close to -20, so targeting golfers who go low is the right strategy here.

Total strokes gained in Birdie or Better Gained in past 24 rounds

Eric Cole (+31.4)
J.T. Poston (+21.3)
Ludvig Aberg (+20.9)
Luke List (+20.7)
Justin Suh (+16.1)

Strokes Gained: Par 4 (400-450)

With eight of the par 4s on the Seaside course measuring 400-450 yards, I’m looking to target golfers who excel on par 4s of this length.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

Russell Henley (+21.1)
Denny McCarthy (+13.4)
Matthias Schmid (+12.8)
Callum Tarren (+12.6)
Ryan Moore (+11.4)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%); Good Drives Gained (21); SG: Putting Bermudagrass (21%); B.O.B (21%); and SG: Par 4 400-450 (12%)

Russell Henley (+2200)
Sam Ryder (+9000)
Chesson Hadley (+6500)
Brendon Todd (+5000)
Eric Cole (+3500)
J.T. Poston (+3500)
Stephan Jaeger (+4000)
Matthias Schmid (+6000)
Brian Harman (+2000)
Austin Smotherman (+25000)

2023 RSM Classic Picks

Matt Kuchar +4000 (DraftKings)

There are plenty of players at the top of the odds board who have a strong chance to contend this week, but few have had the recent repetitions that Matt Kuchar has had. The veteran is in fantastic form and felt as if his game was in great shape heading into the World Wide Technologies Championship, where he came agonizingly close to victory.

Kuchar has three top-19 finishes in his last four starts worldwide, including the runner-up in his most recent start. At one point, he had a six-shot lead before making a disastrous quadruple bogey on the 15th hole during his third round. Many expected Kuchar to struggle on Sunday after blowing such a big lead, but he performed admirably and would have won if Erik Van Rooyen didn’t shoot a ridiculous -8 on the back nine.

The 45-year-old currently lives in St. Simons, Georgia so will be right at home playing at Sea Island this week. His history at the course isn’t as spectacular as one would think given how well the course fits him on paper, but he does have four top-30 finishes at the event since 2013.

In five of Kuchar’s six wins since 2012, he’s had a top-5 finish in one of his three previous starts leading up to the win. I believe his start at the WWT was a foreshadowing of a looming victory.

Billy Horschel +4000 (DraftKings)

After struggling for much of the 2022-2023 season, Billy Horschel has finished the top 20 in five of his past six worldwide starts including a T14 finish in his most recent start at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in October.

Horschel hasn’t played the RSM Classic with regularity but finished in 2nd place at the event back in 2016 where he lost to Mackenzie Hughes in a playoff. The course is a perfect fit for Billy, who’s not overly long off the tee and putts incredibly well on Bermudagrass.

Billy will come into the event as motivated as ever to contend on a course that he should be able to pick apart. With seven career PGA Tour wins, there’s no doubt that Horschel is a closer who will be able to keep his composure down the stretch.

Harris English +6000 (DraftKings)

After a 2021 Ryder Cup appearance, Harris English has had an inconsistent two seasons on the PGA Tour. However, the Sea Island resident finished the season on an encouraging note, finishing 10th at the BMW Championship.

English has a mixed history at Sea Island, but he does have a 6th place finish in 2020. He finished 29th last year, but a final round 65 may be an indication that the 34-year-old figured something out at the course that he grew just a few hours away from.

It’s a bit concerning that English has been off since August, but he’s played well off of layoffs in the past. Last year, he finished 9th at the Fortinet off a 6-week break. In 2021, he won the Sentry Tournament of Champions off of a 5-week break. This break has been a bit longer, but the extra time may not be a major detriment.

Enlgish is a better player than he’s shown over the past 18 months, and I believe he’s in store for a resurgent season that may start this week in Sea Island.

Taylor Pendrith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Pendrith is in fantastic form. In his past three starts, he’s finished 3rd, 15th and 8th. Despite not seeming like a great course fit at Sea Island on paper, he’s had some great history at the course throughout his career.

Last year, Pendrith finished 15th at the event, gaining 5.4 strokes on approach. He also came into the event while playing some below average golf and still managed to hit it great at Sea Island. In 2021, he finished 26th despite missing the cut in two previous starts as well as the following start. I believe now that the Canadian is coming into the event playing some incredibly consistent golf he should be a serious threat to contend deep into the weekend.

Ben Griffin +7500 (DraftKings)

Just a week ago, Ben Griffin was 22-1 and one of the betting favorites at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Although some top end players such as Ludvig Aberg, Brian Harman and Cameron Young have been added to this field, I still believe the drop all the way down to this price gives Griffin a ton of value this week.

The North Carolina hasn’t built up an extensive course history at Sea Island just yet, but he did finish 29th at the event last season. The 27-year-old fired an opening round 65 to start his week and then shot two more rounds in the 60’s after a second round 71. His experience last season should be helpful in his pursuit of a victory this time around.

Sea Island should suit Griffin perfectly. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 15th in the field in both Strokes Gained: Approach and in Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermudagrass. His sharp iron play and ability to hole putts on Bermuda make him an ideal candidate for to contend at Sea Island.

Alex Smalley +8000 (DraftKings):

The past five events in the PGA Tour’s swing season have given us winners who’ve already won on Tour multiple times. The fa oll is typically a time for first-time Tour winners to shine, and among the top candidates to accomplish that this week is Alex Smalley.

Smalley has contended a few times thus far in his career and one of those times was at last year’s RSM Classic. A consistent effort of 67-66-67-67 resulted in the Greensboro, North Carolina resident finishing in a tie for 5th place for the week. It’s no surprise that Smalley likes Sea Island given the amount of golf he’s played in the area and his knack for playing well on shorter courses.

The Duke graduate is beginning to round into form, finishing 30th last week at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship fueled by a final round 65 (-6). Smalley has done his best work on easier courses and the course should provide plenty of birdie opportunities for the 25-year-old.

Kevin Kisner +25000 (DraftKings):

Kevin Kisner has been playing incredibly poorly by his standards since his win at the Wyndham Championship in August of 2021, however Camilo Villegas’ win last week showed us how quickly things can change.

Kisner has shown some minimal signs of improvement during the fall season, finishing 62nd and 51st in his two starts at the Fortinet Championship and the Sanderson Farms Championship. More importantly, Kisner gained 1.8 strokes on approach at the Country Club of Jackson, which was his best approach performance since November of 2022. Going back to the Villegas example, while he was in the midst of a twelve-start stretch where he didn’t finish better than 54th, the Colombian gained 4.0 strokes on approach in a missed cut at the Sanderson Farms Championship in a missed cut. Clearly, he found something and went on to finish 2nd and 1st in his next two starts.

If there’s a course that Kisner may be able to find “it” on, it’s Sea Island. Kisner is a former Georgia Bulldog who’s won here in 2015, lost in a playoff in 2020 and has two additional top-7 finishes since his win. At long odds, “Kiz” is worth a sprinkle on one of his favorite tracks.

Your Reaction?

LIKE11
LEGIT1
WOW1
LOL1
IDHT1
FLOP0
OB0
SHANK0

19th Hole

Scottie Scheffler makes case over major talking point in distance debate

Published

2 days ago

Jul 17, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Prior to this week’s Open Championship, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler spoke about the “distance issue” in professional golf.

The reigning Masters champion gave the 8th hole at Royal Troon, called “Postage Stamp,” as an example as to how holes don’t need to be lengthened to be more difficult.

“No. 8 is a good little way to almost step back in time and control your ball a bit more.

“You don’t have to make a par-three 230 yards to make it a great hole. It can be 120 yards.

“I think holes like 12 at Augusta and 17 at Sawgrass, the best par-threes in the world are short par-threes. They’re not overly long par-threes.”

“It leaves a lot of opportunity for you to hit a shot.

“If I don’t hit the green on No. 8, it’s mostly likely going to be a bogey unless you’re in the front of the green.

“If you miss it in the right bunker or the left bunker — if you hit it in the left bunker, you’re going to be glad to be making a bogey because it’s probably going to plug, and you’ll be hitting up-and-down for your bogey.

“I think great little, short holes like that are fun.

“I think it’s an underrated skill for guys nowadays to be able to control your ball, and I think it’s something we need to encourage in our game, not just building golf courses longer and longer.

“You can make a short hole with a small green, and it’s pretty dang tough.”

One of the major obstacles of Royal Troon this week will be the bunkering. The fairway bunkers on the course are extremely penal and most will require a splash out into the fairway rather than a shot at the green.

“One of the things I liked that the R&A changed this year from last year was the bunkering,” he said.

“Last year I thought it was a bit silly how they flattened out each bunker.

“The bunkers are still a penalty enough when the ball isn’t up against the lip.

“It was a bit of luck whether or not your ball would bury into the face because you have a flat bunker and a wall that’s going to go right into it.”

“As long as you build a little bit of slope into it, you can allow guys the opportunity to get out of the bunker.

“If you’re on the greens, it allows for opportunity for guys to either take on the lip or play smart and play sideways.

“It leaves more opportunity for great shots and risk and reward around the greens and the fairways because you have an opportunity to hit a great shot or just play it safe and go out sideways.

“I love how they changed how they rake the bunkers this year with the more traditional sloping coming off the walls.”

Scheffler is set to begin his quest for a second major championship of 2024 on Thursday.

New here?

Find out more about GolfWRX and the GolfWRX forums.

Your Reaction?

LIKE10
LEGIT0
WOW0
LOL0
IDHT0
FLOP0
OB0
SHANK0

19th Hole

Shane Lowry says this prevalent criticism surrounding Rory McIlroy makes his ‘blood boil’

Published

2 days ago

Jul 17, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Rory McIlroy has been in the headlines since his Sunday collapse at last month’s U.S. Open. Analyst Smylie Kaufman and swing coach Hank Haney have wondered aloud if McIlroy should have hired a new caddie, while others wonder if he has the mental game to ever win another major championship.

This week, McIlroy’s friend and fellow Irishman, Shane Lowry, has come to the defense of the four-time major champion.

While speaking with BBC Sport NI, Lowry said the criticism makes his “blood boil”.

“It makes my blood boil, to be honest,”

“They don’t see how hard Harry works and how good he is for Rory.

“Just because he’s not standing in the middle of the tee box like other caddies who want to be seen and heard doesn’t mean that his voice isn’t heard by Rory.

“When you get to tournaments, he’s always there before Rory, he’s always walking the course. He works harder than any of the caddies out here.”

Lowry added that he still believes Rory will get another major.

“He’s the best caddie for Rory and I’ll argue that with anyone who wants to argue it with me,”

“It’s tough for him. Northern Ireland and Ireland is a small place. I’m sure it’s tough for Harry to go home and deal with all that but he’ll be alright.

“That’ll make the next one they get together all the sweeter.”

McIlroy will try to add to the tally once again this week at Royal Troon, where he finished T5 back in 2016.

New here?

Find out more about GolfWRX and the GolfWRX forums.

While you’re here, check out BK’s breakdown of Bobby Mac’s winning WITB.

Your Reaction?

LIKE24
LEGIT4
WOW2
LOL2
IDHT0
FLOP2
OB1
SHANK6

19th Hole

Brandel Chamblee on why he feels Rory’s game ‘deteriorates in the biggest moments’

Published

3 days ago

Jul 16, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee has been a critic of Rory McIlroy when it comes to the Northern Irishman’s decade-long major championship drought.

After McIlroy came up short at the U.S. Open last month, Chamblee criticized his iron play.

“Don’t get me wrong, I love Rory’s golf swing, it’s beautiful. It’s beautiful. But he’s now finished in the top-ten in the last six U.S. Opens and he’s averaging in those six U.S. Opens – because I just looked here in strokes gained approach – about 30th. Guess what they do not do? Win U.S. Opens.

“The guys who win U.S. Opens finish first, second, third, fourth. Brooks Koepka in U.S. Opens – first, second, most greens and best iron shots, strokes gained approach.

“Rory consistently underperforms in his iron play – and that is the most important statistic.”

In the lead up to this week’s Open Championship at Royal Troon, Brandel is questioning McIlroy’s major championship preparation, after posing the question “Why does Rory’s game deteriorate in the biggest moments?”

Speaking at Royal Troon, Chamblee said

“When you look at what the best athletes do when they play to a higher level, they are being themselves.

“They are extraordinary athletes; they don’t have their minds cluttered up and, of course, their focus narrows the closer they get to the lead because of the confidence they get from that.

“So, it seems to me that Rory over time has enquired a lot from swing instructors or putting instructors or sports psychologists or deep dives from YouTube.

“With this generation, there is an epidemic of people doing deep dives on YouTube and getting cluttered up with curiosity.

“When I see Rory, it looks to me like he has either too many swing thoughts in his mind or he has too many voices in his head, it’s the only logical conclusion that I can draw.

“Why can one person be so obviously different getting into the lead or close to the lead and so obviously different when he has the lead.”

McIlroy will look to finally get over the line this week at Royal Troon, where he finished T5 back in 2016.