Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: Is your handicap a real reflection of your ability?

Published

7 months ago

Oct 18, 2023

Today’s post is somewhat of a continuation of some prior writings on the subject of the relative difficulty of the courses we play versus the difficulty of the courses the tour professionals play every week. In those articles, I’ve suggested — no, declared — that most recreational golfers are playing much a much tougher game than the tour players, based solely on the difference in strength profiles.

Today’s tour professionals are big, strong athletes who have amazingly powerful swings. Because of that power, they reduce most golf courses to a display of big drives and lots of wedge shots, and there are very few legitimate par-5 holes for them – by that I mean a hole long enough to make them position a second shot to leave a preferred approach shot to the green.

In contrast, that’s just not the course set-ups most of us face when we take to the first tee.

Being 71 years old now, I still find myself desiring the challenge of our men’s regular tees. The course presents me with a through-the-bag experience, meaning all facets of my game are tested, from wedge play to short irons to mid-irons to long irons and fairway woods. It is rare that I come off the course with even one club that I did not hit that day.

I play with many friends who are older and just do not have my distance, so they tee it from the gold, or “senior” tees. But for too many of them, that’s just not enough to let them play the game as it is designed. One friend in particular is bound and determined to be a nine handicap again, though he’s currently playing to a 23. I know his game and he moves it around pretty good for 83 years old, but he just does not have the strength to get to a nine handicap from those tees.

Just last night, I was explaining to him that he’s effectively playing a par 83 to 85 golf course, so his mid-90s scores ARE making him a nine handicap. For him, our longest par five is at least driver, two 3-woods and a mid-iron. The other two par 5s require two good 3-wood shots after his best drive to even have a chance of being on or around the green. One par 3 requires his best driver shot to have a remote chance of reaching the green, and at least 10 of the par 4 holes are out of reach with his best drive and 3-wood. If tour players had to play the game that way, I don’t think you would ever see any of them break 80.

The USGA has long pushed the idea of “tee it forward,” but I don’t think most golf courses have taken that honestly to heart and set up their courses and tee locations for their members with their relative strength profiles in mind. There will always be back tees to challenge those stronger players, but why can’t every golfer find a set of tees that gives them relatively the same challenge?

And while we’re on the subject, why are the forward tees so often labeled “seniors,” “ladies” and “super seniors”? The golf ball doesn’t know anything about you. Should our young high school star — a girl who hits it about as far as I do — play the “ladies” tees? Should my friend who’s in his forties but just doesn’t hit it very far not be allowed to play the “senior” tees if that’s where the game is the most fun and challenging?

This game is supposed to be challenging, sure, but it’s also supposed to be enjoyable and fun. And it’s supposed to offer up this measure of “par” that is difficult, but reasonable to attain, whether on any given hole or any given round.

If you are playing a set of tees that makes anything close to par golf completely out of reach, then move up to a set of tees that better fits your game.

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Terry Koehler

Terry Koehler is a fourth generation Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M University. Over his 40-year career in the golf industry, he has created over 100 putter designs, sets of irons and drivers, and in 2014, he put together the team that reintroduced the Ben Hogan brand to the golf equipment industry. Since the early 2000s, Terry has been a prolific writer, sharing his knowledge as “The Wedge Guy”. But his most compelling work is in the wedge category. Since he first patented his “Koehler Sole” in the early 1990s, he has been challenging “conventional wisdom” reflected in ‘tour design’ wedges. The performance of his wedge designs have stimulated other companies to move slightly more mass toward the top of the blade in their wedges, but none approach the dramatic design of his Edison Forged wedges, which have been robotically proven to significantly raise the bar for wedge performance. Terry serves as Chairman and Director of Innovation for Edison Golf – check it out at www.EdisonWedges.com.

22 Comments

Wilt

Oct 22, 2023 at 9:38 am

I play a variety of courses in my area. My general observation is that a lot of people, regardless of age should be moving up. That includes a lot of young guys who swing out of their shoes trying to get enough distance and as a result are all over the course. Most people do not reach the green or somewhere around the green in regulation. That is true on most holes. Move up and speed up!

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Jim Thomson

Oct 21, 2023 at 11:30 am

I’m 72 and the longest hitter in my regular foursome. Last year, at my insistence, we moved up one set of tees because they matched most of the criteria used for determining an appropriate course length for us and also because I was getting tired of wearing out my hybrids and fairway metals. The game is much more enjoyable now hitting short- and mid-irons into greens and instead of hitting 3-6 greens per round it’s now 6-12. My index has dropped from the high-12/low-13 range to the high-9s/low-10s, where it was five years ago. Unfortunately the same cannot be said for the other three guys who consistently hit their approach shots on par-4s and tee shots on par-3s 10 yards short of the green no matter the pin placement. I don’t get it. If you can hit your 140-yard approach shot 10 yards short, why can’t you hit a 130-yard approach on the green? The mind boggles.

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Brandon

Oct 19, 2023 at 7:41 pm

I’m 41 and move the ball pretty well, but my short game is terrible. When I play with people who want to play the whites it puts me at a big disadvantage because I’m frequently hitting half or three quarter wedge shots into par 4s when I’m much better taking a full swing. If I was going off just handicap, I should probably play the whites. But I score better and enjoy the game more from the blues.

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Stephen Lee

Oct 19, 2023 at 7:41 pm

I agree. I say golf is hard enough m, why make it harder? Lets make it easier by moving up the tee. I always encourage my group to play whites instead of blue and they are skeptical at first but at the end of the day they are all happy to have chance at par and occasional birdie. And also 3.5 hours round instead of 5 hours.

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Roy

Oct 19, 2023 at 8:53 am

I appreciate your view but I think your title is a bit misleading. Play from whatever tees you want, you’re not making a paycheck from playing golf. But if you want to truly talk about handicaps, and it being a measure of playing ability then that’s a completely different discussion. It’s independent from driving distance.

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Ned

Oct 19, 2023 at 6:12 am

I’m 80 and play from the senior tees but as I age and lose more distance I will move to the forward tees to keep enjoying this great game. I use a sim in my house and it has junior tees on most courses. This is a great idea for young people and super seniors as it runs about 3500 yards. My wife plays from they and can get on most par 4’s in 2. Every golfer should have a change to play the second shot on most par 4’s with a mid iron. This is how the game was meant to be played. I don’t think it would be much of an expense for the course only new tee markers and maybe a little dirt.

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Golf Puff

Oct 18, 2023 at 11:26 pm

Years ago, I was asked to establish new yardages for ‘senior’ tees at the private course where I worked. One thing I never really grasped was why the green (‘senior’) tees on one hole, at a par 4 for the ‘men’, played longer than the red (‘women’s’ tees) played as a par 5. There was no possible way anyone playing from the ‘senior’ tees would get within 80 yards of the green in two strokes, yet it was still regarded as a par 4. The handicap system doesn’t help here because, as a golfer moves forward with shorter tees, the associated course rating and slope drops off and does not take into consideration how far the golfers using these tees actually hit the ball. So, the ‘senior’ golfer moves up 500+ yards on the tee markers, but his handicap goes down 3 or more shots. And, there are still holes that he can’t possible reach with two of his Sunday ‘bests’.

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Chris

Oct 18, 2023 at 10:53 pm

Agree, agree, agree!! I moved up to the white tees when I turned 65 almost five years ago, and can still break 80 from there. But I know that any par 4 over 400 yards is really a par 5 for me now, and the shirt game has to save me.
But why, on a 430 yard par 4, are the white tees only 20 yards ahead of the blues? And there are courses without “senior” tees, although seniors play more golf than any other demographic.

Thanks for a great article. Golf should be fun first, challenging second.

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Bob Jones

Oct 18, 2023 at 10:43 pm

Twelve years ago,when I was 62, I played to a 9.5 handicap. Now, I have the same skills. I hit the ball straight, and am just as good around the green. But because I can’t hit the ball as far anymore, my handicap makes it look like I took up the game last week because I’ve moved up to the tees that are rated much lower so I can make the same scores from as before. Something about that isn’t right.

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Mason

Oct 18, 2023 at 3:12 pm

“he moves it around pretty good for 83 years old, but he just does not have the strength to get to a nine handicap from those tees.”

It is true that you can get potentially lower your handicap from playing a specific set of tees, but usually not by much, I’d estimate a stroke or two on average, and not much more BECAUSE THE RATING DECREASES AS THE DISTANCE OF EACH SET OF TEES DECREASES and adjusts your handicap. So yeah the author’s friend may shoot a few strokes less from the forward tees, but most of that gain will not be reflected in his handicap due to the decreased rating. In fact I wouldn’t surprise me if many golfers handicaps would actually go down if they played longer tees, couldn’t reach greens, and simply played smart. They could effectively hit easy layups, short irons/wedges on and make a lot of bogeys instead of trying to hit greens with long irons and fairway woods, putting themselves in bad spots, penalty strokes… Even if their score was a stroke or two higher, their handicap would sti

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1 hcp

Oct 18, 2023 at 1:54 pm

I am a 1 hcp and I can’t remember the last time I played from the back tees. I can’t remember the last time I hit a par5 in two, so why would I add an additional 200 meters to the course length? A buddy of mine is a plus handicap and he plays solely from the longest tees because he’s capable of hitting one par5 with the driver and the hybrid. The idea I am pointing out is that everyone should play their own length so that they are reaching par3 in one shot, par4 in 2, and par5 in 3 shots. Are you a 70 years old who plays from red tees? Who cares?

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Sean Gregory

Oct 18, 2023 at 12:21 pm

In addition, I regularly encounter forward tee boxes 10-20 yards ahead of the white tees. What is the point of 10-20 yards? This is no advantage. Develop tee boxes that really give an advantage to move up.

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- Chuck
  
  Oct 18, 2023 at 1:11 pm
  
  There is not supposed to be an “advantage”. The point is equity. The tees are supposed to be separated by using average driving distance. The average senior drive is about 30 yards less than the average male. The same for the forward tees. The objective is to have equitable tee shots that end up in relatively the same place, equalizing the approach.
  
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  - Golf Puff
    
    Oct 18, 2023 at 11:19 pm
    
    No, I have to disagree. If my drives are shorter than another golfers, but the tees are only adjusted for this distance, then my approach will play 2-4 clubs longer than the other golfers. That is not equity, it is false equity. If you don’t believe me, let’s go play when I am hitting wedge approaches and you are hitting 6 irons.
    
    Reply Report comment
  - James Kendzior
    
    Oct 18, 2023 at 11:51 pm
    
    Except that ending up in relatively the same place doesn’t equalize the approach since the person who hits it 20 or 30 yards farther than me with his driver is probably going to hit a couple of clubs less than I need for the approach shot from the same distance.
    
    Another problem is that a lot of the courses I play have regular tees that are too long and senior tees that are too short. It’s almost like the courses don’t want you to be able to play the proper length.
    
    Reply Report comment
  - garyt
    
    Oct 19, 2023 at 9:35 am
    
    Not true at all. If the forward tees allow a person to end up at the same place as my drive from the back tees he’s at a severe disadvantage. I may have a 7 iron into the green while he’ll have 4 hybrid. The drives of a person playing the forward tees should finish well ahead of the drive of the person playing the back tees so they both have relatively the same club in.
    
    Reply Report comment
H

Oct 18, 2023 at 11:29 am

The handicap system is completely skewed and incorrect for the public. It doesn’t relate anywhere near to what the Pros are doing, even for scratch guys, and so the whole index and rating systems need to be revised, as do golf course set ups. But they won’t – it’s there to make money for everybody, the courses and the equipment manufacturers, is why it is the way it is. If they ball flies farther, and there is chance that you would lose more of them, then they would sell more of them. If they can write a narrative that makes people believe that the latest models are better than the previous and helps them hit them farther, they would sell more of them. They have people believing that a “nice” or “good” courses are in better condition generally, but are also more difficult with slick greens and more numerous penalty areas, but why would you pay more to lose more balls and shoot higher scores? Those are the tricks of the trade, not the things that make golf more fun to play.

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Fredo

Oct 18, 2023 at 11:24 am

Praise the lord! You are absolutely correct that courses should set up tees more fairly. I will be turning 69 in a week and contend with longer approach shots that are testing my nerves LOL. It’s all about saving par with my short game now. It is difficult to increase clubhead speed so I am constantly reevaluating my swing and sticking to the basics. More often than not, as I age my swing gets sloppy, and that’s when I go deep into the weeds and try to be more efficient like the women on the LPGA do.

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- John Harrison
  
  Oct 18, 2023 at 12:13 pm
  
  Absolutely spot on. I became tired of slugging it out from the white tees all the time. I now play from the gold tees once a week and find it to be quite a bit more fun. I enjoy being able to putt for birdies on par fours that I can’t get much closer than 30 yards from the green from the white tees.
  
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dixiedoc

Oct 18, 2023 at 10:54 am

Interesting piece. As a 78 y/o avid golfer I found it difficult to move up but as I have I have come to find that I enjoy the game more. I will never be a single digit handicapper again but that’s vanity and not reality. My one complaint is that my club caters to the “back tee” guys ever though us seniors spend vastly more money at the club. The Gold and Silver tees are not kept well and are sort of a ragtag mound of dirt on the fairway whereas the back tees are well groomed with nice grass. Clubs should pay attention to the members who actually support them.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

3 days ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

7 days ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

1 week ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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