Opinion & Analysis

The best bets for the 2023 Scottish Open

Published

10 months ago

Jul 12, 2023

We should be in the middle of a trio of home Opens.

Although disappointing, it is perfectly understandable why organisers would move the Irish Open to September instead of staying in its regular position, two weeks prior to The Open.

They see the rescheduling as part of being able to attract a better quality field and, if reports are to be believed, they will certainly be hosting a fair number of the top-20 in the world.

It also takes place when yours truly believes The Open should be, a proper end-of-season trial around a links course. The move also puts punters in a quandary.

Last year’s Scottish Open champion Xander Schauffele has never played the Irish Open but won the Travelers at home before winning a top-class pro-am at Adare Manor.

Tommy Fleetwood’s record in Ireland was just about decent, but he used that experience to his advantage at the Renaissance Club, ultimately losing to Aaron Rai in a play-off in 2021, an effort that preceded two further top finishes.

Rai, himself, has a terrific record at Galgorm Castle and Mount Juliet, running-up to John Catlin in Covid year and posting a pair of top-12 finishes since.

Lucas Herbert, winner at Mount Juliet in 2021, and with two book-ending top-10s at the Irish, has a pair of fourth place finishes at Renaissance, whilst Bernd Wiesberger – winner of the first Scottish open held at the North Berwick course in 2019 – has two second places and a fourth from just four Irish Open outings.

There is undoubtedly a connection, and whilst we have to do without immediate Irish Open form, I’m in on anything that hints to quality and consistent efforts across the water.

As always, the weather will hugely affect the home Opens.

Austrian Wiesberger won his play-off after recording 22-under, whilst a year later Rai and bad weather specialist Tommy Fleetwood got very wet when fighting it out at half the score, 11-under.

We go again a year later when Min Woo Lee used his length to triumph in 18 under the card but, 12 months ago, the defending champ needed only to get to 7-under to win by a single shot.

There is plenty of wind and rain forecast for the week, so if it clears up, expect low scores on softened greens. Should it continue post-Wednesday, we might see Fleetwood again posting the joy he finds in getting soaked.

With Cam Smith banned from appearing (though very high on the list for next week’s big event) and Jon Rahm and Max Homa not taking part, that leaves seven of the world’s top-10 players here this week.

Top of the list, Scottie Scheffler, may not have won since March but has been confirmed as putting up some of the best long-term tee-to-green figures since the pomp years of Tiger Woods.

It’s a rum week when the 27-year-old does not rank in the top three from peg to green, something that has happened only once in his last 10 starts. Even then, he ranked fifth.

Having beaten Tyrrell Hatton at Bay Hill, and won in Texas, Pheonix and Sawgrass (again beating Hatton) I’ve got no issues with him in the wind. I just wonder if this might be seen as more of a warm-up for Hoylake, where his stunning approach play will be a positive against an unquestionable weakness (putting), a factor that might be less of an issue.

We have to go back to Ernie Els in 2003 to find the last repeat winner of the Scottish Open, so whilst Xander is tempting after another stellar year (10/18/10 through the majors) I have a feeling he will be another for whom this will be a warm-up for better.

Rory has done nothing in two outings here and won’t want poor conditions, but Patrick Cantlay does make some appeal at the price, giving the impression he is very much this year’s Schauffele.

The 31-year-old hasn’t had the best year in terms of public relations but continues to churn out repeat results at favoured tracks. After last year’s fourth place, he might soon be numbering the Renaissance as one of those.

Cantlay is managing to sneak in results despite sometimes being off with one element.

Surrounding a 14th at Augusta (could have been so much better but for the slow play issues), top-10 at the PGA and 14th at the US Open, the eight-time winner has landed yet another top-3 at Harbour Town, a fourth place alongside Schauffele when defending the Zurich pairs title, and his sixth top-15 in a row at River Highlands, recording his best ever event finish, in fourth place.

In between all those, a 30th at the Memorial may seem poor in comparison to his two course wins, but something went very wrong on day four, his poor display on the greens dropping him back from ninth, whilst 21st at Quail Hollow is very acceptable given his dislike of the course.

He’s now back on a track on which he was top-20 for tee-to-green and 11th for putting, so whilst he has never played the Irish Open, the fact he has been 12th at Carnoustie and eighth at St. Andrews suggests he cannot be ruled out in any varying Open conditions.

I’m completely torn between Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood and it’s only by the width of a feather that the former is preferred.

Whilst he may have once reached the lofty height of fifth in the world, in my mind the 31-year-old Englishman is playing some of the most consistent golf of his life, and in higher-quality fields.

Two-time winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links, Hatton’s best finish in this event is a runner-up behind Alex Noren at Castle Stuart in 2016. Noren, incidentally, is another with a tremendous record at the same pro-am, the highlight being last year’s second place behind another links specialist Ryan Fox.

It’s not all old form though, and the selection comes here after three consecutive course top-25s (14/18/24), a record that could have been better given he sat in eighth place after two rounds last year.

Whilst he is yet to win in 2023, the man who should be mic’d for every round (ever) was the closest challenger to the flying Scottie-man at Sawgrass, third at tough Quail Hollow, and again in bronze medal position in Canada.

That leaderboard at Oakdale has some added significance, with beaten play-off candidate Fleetwood and joint third-placed Rai boosting form for this week, and Royal Aberdeen winner Justin Rose in eighth place.

In 16 outings this year, Hatton has missed just one cut (in Texas) with top-10 finishes in Pheonix, at Bay Hill, and at Craig Ranch boosting his current world ranking of 15th.

He comes here currently ranked (PGA Tour) 10th off-the-tee, 17th in approach and 5th for putting, with his worst figures being for around the green, a stat that let him down around here last year when a slight loss (-0.5 strokes) cost him another place in the top 15.

I’ll take it on the chin if he’s beaten by a shot by Fleetwood, but wherever one finishes, expect the other. The coin flipped Hatton’s way.

It’s not hard to imagine Jordan Spieth being at his best for next week’s big one, and it was tempting to go with vastly improved Adrian Meronk, winner of last year’s Irish Open. However, The Pole appears a little shy of this level, and has done little in two previous outings here.

Instead, the slowly peaking Min Woo Lee might be ready to go well after leaving a rough patch of form behind.

After a good start to 2023 with a runner-up in Abu Dhabi, top-15 in Dubai and sixth place at The Players (second place after three rounds), the Australian lost his form and missed three cuts, including at Augusta, a course at which he’d been 14th on debut.

However, he bounced back at the PGA at Oak Hill, following up with three more cuts at Colonial (7th after round one, 25th after three), fifth at the US Open and ninth at Travelers.

The 24-year-old then returned to Europe for the British Masters at The Belfry with a spring in his step, commenting that he felt his upbringing on the DPWT had been vital for his progress on the PGA Tour. “So, it definitely helped with my career and America’s really tough,” he told the DPWT website. “The courses are tough and I always come back to how I played in Europe, and yeah, lots of confidence from playing out here and I think it’s starting to show a little bit in America.”

54th after round one last time, and 63rd at halfway, Lee found his form after the cut, scything through the field in difficult conditions to finish 15th.

This was enough to think he comes here ready to build on two solid course efforts. In eighth place after the first round on debut, he, of course, improved on that a year later, with a remarkable final round of 64 in 2021, despite a weather delay.

It’s hard to believe that Min Woo has been professional for just four years, but with victories in Victoria in his home Open (beating Ryan Fox) and around here, he arrives into a period that suits his best game.

With a short major career beginning to show improvement – this year’s 8th and 15th coming after a 21st at Cam Smith’s Open win – Min Woo needs serious consideration over the next two weeks. Hopefully, the hints become reality in a few days’ time.

Rickie Fowler broadcast his current claims before his win last time in Detroit and loves coming to Scotland. A win at Gullane and four further top-10 finishes give credence to his claims, but, sadly, the bookmakers have got him now.

Despite Brandon Stone winning at 400/1 and Min Woo well into triple figures in 2022, I can’t look too far down for the winner.

I’ll puff in the cheeks and stick with a player often backed when wind and rain are mentioned, even if we need to shut eyes at the stats board.

In a similar way to Min Woo, 2021 Irish Open champion Lucas Herbert becomes an auto-bet when the right conditions are forecast.

The Aussie is one of those players that can rarely be backed on a trend or a form line. Indeed, his play-off win in Dubai came after a tied-67th season opener, the Bermuda win after two missed-cuts, whilst his latest win in Japan, in April, is surrounded by mostly poor form.

We can judge only the win at Mount Juliet as forecast, coming after a pair of top-20 finishes on the PGA Tour, at the Memorial and, significantly, Travelers.

No coincidence that after his best effort for a couple of months, he is considered for the Scottish Open this week in lieu of the missing Irish equivalent.

Herbert’s two outings here in 2020 and 2021 resulted in almost +3 for approaches and two top-eight ranked efforts on the greens, similar to his two efforts at River Highlands, one of which which led to his win at Mount Juliet..

Herbert is a confidence player, bombing the ball around in a tremendous play-off for his first win, although he has had to make changes to the way he drives the ball in an effort to simply find fairways.

At the end of last year, the 27-year-old realised that his stock draw was simply not finding the short stuff enough to count, with his coach commenting:

“We know that when he drives it 300 in the air–which he does–if he can hit 60 percent of fairways he’s going to compete week in and week out.”

Whilst he may not have completely settled with a new fade, it will come, and the wager is in trust that manages to find enough greens to allow his excellent putting to thrive.

Recommended Bets:

Patrick Cantlay
Tyrrell Hatton
Min Woo Lee
Lucas Herbert

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

2 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

Published

2 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Brendan Ryan

In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

1 week ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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