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Tour Rundown: Keegan’s Kareer Komeback | A Baltusrol win for Yin
Let’s get right to it.
LPGA @ Women’s PGA Championship: A Baltusrol win for Yin
Leona Maguire had an opportunity to climb a new rung on the women’s professional golf ladder, but Sunday at Baltusrol was not her day. The 54-hole leader did not make a birdie until the 13th hole of round four. By that time, she had three bogeys and was about to add a fourth. Her 74 dropped her from seven under to four under par, and into an 11th-place tie. Her stumble revealed opportunity for ten other golfers to take a run at the 2023 PGA Championship.
Jenny Shin, who was paired with Maguire, could not capitalize on Maguire’s bad fortune, and dropped six spots into a tie for 8th. Surging into the same place were Rose Zhang (-4 for -5 overall) and Ayaka Furue (-5 for -5 overall.) A quintet of golfers tied for third spot at six-under par. Xiyu Lin had the best shot at the title, turning in five-under par on the day. The birdie well ran dry, and a final-hole bogey dropped Xiyu from seven-under to minus-six. Matching her total were Stephanie Meadow, Megan Khang, Anna Nordqvist, and Carlota Ciganda. Spain’s Ciganda had the low round of the day (64) but was unable to make birdie at either of the closing par-five holes.
Japan’s Yuka Saso found her momentum near the turn on day four. She posted five birdies from hole seven through fifteen, but a crushing bogey temporarily derailed her train at the 16th. Birdie at the last brought her to minus-seven, but it wasn’t enough to catch the champion. China’s Ruoning Yin, a recent winner of her first LPGA event, was the only golfer to avoid Old Lady Bogey over the final 18 holes. Ruoning paired four birdies with 14 pars for 67, reaching 8-under par for the tournament. Her birdie at the last hole separated her from Saso, and gave the 20-year old her first major championship.
Fist pump-worthy ?
Ruoning Yin with the HUGE birdie on 18 to take the lead at -8!!! pic.twitter.com/hVMEuClRBZ
— LPGA (@LPGA) June 25, 2023
PGA Tour @ Travelers Championship: Keegan’s Kareer Komeback Kontinues
For those with a bit of memory, Keegan Bradley was the golfer most identified with the USGA’s decision to eliminate the anchored putting form of rolling the rock. Although the long putter didn’t go away, its use was severely curtailed, and Keegan’s burgeoning win total (three in 2011-2012, including a major championship) halted for six years. In 2018, the New England native won for a fourth time during the playoff run. Since October of 2022, the Vermont-born Bradley has won twice. Beyond the 2011 PGA Championship in Atlanta, this week’s win in Connecticut certainly means the most.
It was Keegan’s week, to be sure. Denny McCarthy may have opened with a near-epic 60, coming up just shy of a rare descent into the 50s, but he wasn’t going to win. River Highlands was in pristine condition, and receptive greens meant that scores would be low all week. Bradley was on track for a fourth-consecutive round below 66, until a Sunday spate of bogeys gave hope to the chasers. Chez Reavie began the final round one slim shot behind Bradley, but lost his connection to the birdie network. His first one came at Sunday’s 14th hole, and it was also his last. A blase round of one-over par relegated Reavie to a tie for fourth, four back of the top spot.
On Sunday’s 13th tee, Bradley’s scorecard read five-under par on the day, 26-deep on the week. His lead was nearly double-digits, and he simply lost his way. His drive went right, into the water, and Bradley made bogey on a par-five hole that others devoured with eagle. On the 14th, he chunked his approach shot short of the green and made another bogey. At the par-three 16th, Bradley nearly dunked another tee shot. He found the right rough and again, failed to get up and down for par. At this juncture, the lead was three and folks had to wonder. Fortunately for all of New England, their homegrown hero righted the ship, closed with two pars, and brought the region a native winner.
What a shot from @Keegan_Bradley ?
He leads by FIVE with seven to play @TravelersChamp. pic.twitter.com/YmnvVsJL70
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 25, 2023
DP World Tour @ BMW International: Lawrence of South Africa edges Luiten
Thriston Lawrence of Neispruit, South Africa, is having himself quite a run. His first DP World Tour win came in 2021, in Johannesburg. His second came on the continent, at the European Masters in Switzerland. Win number three came in his country’s home Open championship last December. Now Lawrence has a fourth career title on one of the world’s premier tours, this time in Germany.
The final round at München Eichenried was a challenge for the remaining field. The mid- and low-60s scores of Saturday morphed into challenges of all sizes and shapes on Sunday. Overnight leader Joost Luiten, like Reavie in Connecticut, was able to find but one birdie over the final 17 holes. His plus-two score on day four dropped him to 12-undr par, a total that would ultimately come up one shy of a playoff. It was Lawrence who found glory over the closing 18 holes.
You might think that a fellow who inked five bogeys onto his scorecard would have little chance of a top-five finish, much less a victory. Lawrence also posted eight birdies along the closing trace. His birdies at 15 and 17, paired with Luiten’s bogey at the penultimate hole, brought Lawrence from two behind to one in front. Pars for both at the final hole put the final touch on a single-shot victory for South Africa.
The perfect time to make birdie!@ThristonL moves level with @joostluiten ?#BMWInternationalOpen pic.twitter.com/qB0q7iNr2u
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) June 25, 2023
Korn Ferry Tour @ Compliance Solutions: Stanger stays the course
With scores of 65, 64, and 63 posted at various times this week, one might think that Jimmy Stanger should have been a bit envious, if not outright anxious. The 2023 campaign has been a decent one, with a few, top-fifteen finishes for the UVA alumnus. That all changed this week in Oklahoma. Stanger posted rounds of 67-66-67-66 and stared veteran Rafael Campos down with birdie at the final hole. Campos was just off the green at the par-five closer, but his pitch was too strong, and his putt, too high. He settled for par. One group later, Stanger would secure the four that Campos lacked, and claim a life-changing KFT title by one shot.
Birdie ?? birdie. ??
Co-leader @jimmy_stanger is 3-under thru 8 @cschampgolf. pic.twitter.com/JzhwmsC7oF
— Korn Ferry Tour (@KornFerryTour) June 25, 2023
PGA Tour Champions @ Dick’s Sporting Goods Open: Powerful Paddy powers home
If you’re following all the tours these days, you know that Ireland’s Padraig Harrington does double duty on the regular and senior circuits. Although he hasn’t won on the junior circuit since 2018 in Portugal, Harrington does more than show up, make a cut, and collect a check. As for the Tour Champions, the three-time major winner has five victories in little more than a year, including the USGA Senior Open in his debut appearance.
This week, Harrington and company were staring up at Joe Durant, who seemed ready to collect a fifth Senior title in Endicott, New York. Durant was cruising through twelve holes, enjoying seven birdies and a six-under round. Inexplicably, the Chenango River that flows through town reduced to a trickle for the Pensacola native. Durant came home with six consecutive pars and watched, helplessly, as Padraig surged.
Beginning at the par-five twelfth hole, Harrington pealed off four consecutive birdies. At the drivable par-four 16th, his tee shot found the left edge of the green, and his fifteen-feet putt for eagle caught enough empty space to tumble home. In the blink of an eye, Harrington was tied for the top spot. Another birdie at 17 gave him solo command of the ship, and Harrigton guided it home with par at the last. His closing 63 was the week’s low round, quite fitting for a champion of the world.
Launching to T1 ?@padraig_h eagles the par-4 16th to grab a share of the lead @dicksopengolf. pic.twitter.com/gFtRGvbUWC
— PGA TOUR Champions (@ChampionsTour) June 25, 2023
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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board
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LivvyDivvy
Jun 28, 2023 at 1:17 am
Several days later… and wrx still has the “K K K” headline. Dog whistle anyone?