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Five Things We Learned: Friday at the PGA Championship
The drive from Buffalo to the media shuttle lot took one hour and two minutes. It included five vehicles that didn’t know left lane from right lane, at least two healthy rain showers, and a few cashews. Fran the Bus Man made sure to keep me entertained on the shuttle ride in, and my entry to the tournament grounds was seamless. When the PGA Championship was held here in Augusts of 2003 and 2013, I was able to spend four to five days on course. Now that it is celebrated during the school year, my access is truncated.
The weather systems tossed an unexpected series of squalls at Friday’s play. Despite the arrival of the wet stuff, the band played on. No delays, just a spritz or two on the golf course. Saturday might look worse, but getting 36 complete and a cut established is pretty great stuff for western New York in May. On that squishy note, let’s take a look at five things that we learned on Friday at the 2023 PGA Championship.
1. Making putts on 18 to make the cut is sweet
Within the space of two groups, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth made 10-15 feet putts for bogey and par, respectively. Each stood near the cut line, and needed to make those critters to have a seat at the table over the weekend. Each one buried the palpitation-inducers in the heart of the cup, as champions do. One group later, Matt Fitzpatrick came to the same hole, also on the line. His drive found a right-side fairway bunker, and his approach slipped over the lip, landing fifty feet below the hole. His approach putt stormed past the hole, into Spieth territory. His read was not as accurate as Spieth’s, and the weekend slipped away for the 2022 US Open champion.
Sometimes they drop, and sometimes they don’t.
Beauty from @JustinThomas34 sets up birdie to get inside the projected cutline pic.twitter.com/SZZACRvIOt
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 19, 2023
2. We met the new neighbors
There’s this young guy named Justin Suh, who made his debut on the PGA block this week. How did he get a spot in the neighborhood?
I would say I started driving it a lot better. We made a few adjustments before the tournament started, and I think it clicked right when the tournament
started. I would say hitting fairways are pretty crucial out here, but I play pretty conservative with my iron shots just because greens are pretty important on this golf course, and I rely
on my speed with my putter.
Adrian Meronk from Poland is a new exchange student, and Callum Tarren is also spending some time in the states, having grown up in England. Suh dropped a stroke from his opening 69, and found a spot in the penultimate pairing with his day-two 68. Callum Tarren is right there with Suh, going from 71 to 67 overnight, to move inside the top ten. Adrian Meronk didn’t fair nearly as well as the aforementioned lads, but he did move inside the cut line with a Friday 69. We all love over-the-fence talk about the new kids on the block, and there’s no reason to think that this trio won’t make some noise on the weekend.
Suh. Dude knows how to putt. #PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/ZCS9VmjZqp
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 19, 2023
3. The guy that all of western New York supports is … Keith Mitchell?
You bet. Howza come? Well, Mitchell has partnered with the Buffalo Bills #QB1, Josh Allen, at the AT & T pro-am in California, for a few years. Each one extols the other’s virtues, and rumor has it that Mitchell is now a table-breaking member of the #BillsMafia.
Don’t expect Mitchell to don the red, white, and blue zubaz sweats for the weekend, but understand that he sits in a pretty positive space after 36 holes. If he can figure out the par-five holes (he’s two-over par on them through two rounds) and avoid the bogeys that lurk along Allen’s Creek, Mitchell might move within a handful of shots by Saturday night. As we all know, Sundays are shootouts and Mitchell is a gunslinger.
It's evident Keith Mitchell studied the Round 2 hole locations.
He tapped this in for birdie and moves into T6 (-2) #PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/9XthHHsQll
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 19, 2023
4. Say Goodbye to Hollywood and …
In addition to Matt Fitzpatrick, Tom Kim, Jason Day, and Cameron Young missed the cut. Young and his caddie somehow failed to replace a ball marker that had been moved for another player’s putt. The ensuing, two-stroke penalty dropped Young from +6 to +8 and crushed all momentum. Joining that trio on the train out of town are Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, and 19 out of 20 PGA professionals. Only Michael Block, from Mission Viejo, California, survived the 36-hole cut among the club professionals. He did it in style, matching a Friday 70 to his Thursday one, finding himself tied for 11th at the halfway post.
Class is in session with Cam Young. The New York native puts a little English on it to set up a tap in. #PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/XmKltp3xRT
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 19, 2023
5. Wear out the center of the green
Those are the words of one of our tri-leaders. Viktor Hovland.
… I’ve just been a little bit young and stupid, just going after some pins that I’m not
supposed to go for even though I’m feeling good about my ball-striking and it’s easy to just feel like, yeah, I’m going to take it right at it and make a birdie here. Then you hit a decent shot, and then you’re short-sided and make bogey or double, and you just can’t do that in major championship golf.
You just have to wear out center of the green. If that putter gets hot, you can make some birdies.
Hovland did precisely that, and made a nifty birdie at the last, while Scottie Scheffler had a sloppy bogey. The pair ended up at the same address: five-under par for 36 holes. Joining them is Corey Conners, who made a somewhat-benign par at the closing, 502-yard par four. Scheffler and Conners will be paired in the final twosome, while Hovland will match wits with Justin Suh.
Viktor Hovland has birdie on the brain. #PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/4dEdSU2Kpq
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 19, 2023
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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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