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The 23 players who can win the Masters

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Over the past 10 Masters, I have created a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that have strongly predictive outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 20-24 players.

In that time I have correctly shortlisted every champion. In last year’s Masters, right of the 11 players that finished in the top-10 were shortlisted. The closest a non-shortlisted player came to winning was Corey Conners’ T6 finish; seven strokes from the winner Scottie Scheffler.

If you’re watching at home, the “critical holes” that will likely determine the top finishers will be holes No. 8, 11, 13, and 15. With the 13th hole being lengthened this year I do not expect the hole to lose any mathematical importance for the top finishers.

Moving on to the tournament, I will address the elephant in the room with the LIV Tour players. The LIV Tour does not have ShotLink data, so many of the measures we can use to filter out players do not apply. Therefore I have to perform guesswork based on their most recent performances on the PGA Tour as well as how well the player has played on the LIV Tour. I won’t go over each player, but here are the LIV Tour players I have filtered out.

  • Abraham Ancer
  • Bryson DeChambeau
  • Sergio Garcia
  • Talor Gooch
  • Jason Kokrak
  • Phil Mickelson
  • Kevin Na
  • Joaquin Niemann
  • Louis Oosthuizen
  • Thomas Pieters
  • Patrick Reed
  • Charl Schwartzel
  • Harold Varner III
  • Bubba Watson

Next, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won three times by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller was the last to win in 1979. Prior to Zoeller though, it was Horton Smith in the inaugural event in 1934 followed by Gene Sarazen in 1935.

  • Sam Bennett (a)
  • Ben Carr (a)
  • Harrison Crowe (a)
  • Mateo Fernandez de Oliveria (a)
  • Ryan Fox
  • Kazuki Higa (a)
  • Tom Kim
  • Kurt Kitayama
  • Matthew McClean (a)
  • Adrian Meronk
  • Taylor Moore
  • Mito Pereira
  • Aldrich Potgieter (a)
  • Gordon Sargent (a)
  • Adam Svensson
  • Sahith Theegala

Out of the first time invitees the data projects Kurt Kitayama as the favorite to finish best.

I also filter out old Masters champions that I do not believe can get into contention anymore.

  • Fred Couples
  • Bernhard Langer
  • Sandy Lyle
  • Larry Mize
  • Jose Maria Olazabal
  • Vijay Singh
  • Mike Weir

Recency has a strong predictive value for player performance and missing the cut in the event in the prior week greatly reduces the likelihood of winning the following week compared to players that miss the cut, take a week off, and then play the following week. Therefore I filter out any player(s) that missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open last week.

  • Tyrrell Hatton

And let’s filter out those players that have never made the cut at the Masters as outside of Zoeller, Horton Smith and Sarazen mentioned previously.

  • Sam Burns
  • K.H. Lee
  • J.T. Poston
  • Cameron Young

A Tradition Unlike Any Other


Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par 5s more like par 4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.

When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par 5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par 5s, his strength.

The weather report this week is calling for rain on Friday with rain and cooler temperatures on the weekend. While it depends on the course, typically softer conditions favor longer hitters. However, that’s on your standard golf courses with rough and fairways roughly 30 yards wide. On those courses the longer hitters start to hit more fairways and that reduces the standard deviation of hit fairway percentage between the field. Augusta National has very little rough. That means the standard deviation of hit fairway percentage is already low and it still favors the longer hitter because they are leaving themselves with shorter approach shots from the same type of lie.

The key hole will likely be the par-5 13th. It was has been a critical hole on the course every year that I have posted this column. Now it has lengthened by 37 yards. If the weather conditions prevent the hole from being reachable in two shots, that will favor the shorter and more accurate ballstrikers that are adept from 75-125 yard like Zach Johnson back in 2007.

Having said all of that, I will stick with the filters I have used due to the the weather forecast not calling for a lot of wind and at this point it’s impossible to predict how the par-5 13th hole will play.

So I will rule out the golfers that are hitting the ball too short to win.

  • Russell Henley
  • Tom Hoge
  • Billy Horschel
  • Zach Johnson
  • Chris Kirk
  • Kevin Kisner
  • Francesco Molinari
  • Collin Morikawa
  • Sepp Straka

Out of this group, the data likes Tom Hoge the best. He currently ranks 4th in Red Zone (175-225 yards) play and 31st form the Green Zone (75-125 yards) and is one of the best 3-wood performers on Tour. Morikawa isn’t quite as sharp as he has been the in the past as he ranks 43rd from the Red Zone and 88th from Green Zone. But if he regains his old form these weather conditions may play nicely in his favor.

Last year I created a new formula to better determine ball height. As I’ve written in each Masters picks post, low ball hitters tend to not fare well at Augusta. Last year I had nine players filtered out for low trajectory and the best finisher was Corey Conners at T6. Danny Willett also finished T12, but the other seven low ball filtered players didn’t do much.

  • Brian Harman
  • Max Homa
  • Seamus Power
  • Alex Noren
  • Si Woo Kim

The big shocker is Homa, the fifth ranked player in the world. Typically has has been a high ball hitter, but this season he has dramatically lowered his ball flight. The weather conditions may help particularly if the greens soften and hold better.. Currently he ranks sixth in Red Zone play and first in Green Zone play, so I am not exactly confident in filtering him from winning.

Last season I had 14 players filtered out for poor Red Zone play. 8 of the 14 players either missed the cut or withdrew from the tournament. Rory McIlroy finished 2nd, but needed a final round 64 to do so. Other than that, Charl Schwartzel finished t-10th and the rest either missed the cut or didn’t do much of anything.

So, let’s filter out those players.

  • Cameron Champ
  • Harris English
  • Tommy Fleetwood
  • Mackenzie Hughes
  • Min-Woo Lee
  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Adam Scott
  • Jordan Spieth
  • Danny Willett

That leaves 23 players that can win the Masters:

  • Keegan Bradley (150/1)
  • Patrick Cantlay (20/1)
  • Corey Conners (40/1)
  • Jason Day (25/1)
  • Tony Finau (25/1)
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (50/1)
  • Viktor Hovland (40/1)
  • Sungjae Im (40/1)
  • Dustin Johnson (25/1)
  • Brooks Koepka (33/1)
  • Shane Lowry (66/1)
  • Rory McIlroy (7/1)
  • Keith Mitchell (125/1)
  • Jon Rahm (10/1)
  • Justin Rose (66/1)
  • Xander Schauffele (25/1)
  • Scottie Scheffler (7/1)
  • Cameron Smith (25/1)
  • Scott Stallings (500/1)
  • Justin Thomas (22/1)
  • Gary Woodland (250/1)
  • Tiger Woods (80/1)
  • Will Zalatoris (33/1)

My top-10 picks are as follows:

  • Rory McIlroy (7/1)
  • Scottie Scheffler (7/1)
  • Jon Rahm (10/1)
  • Tony Finau (25/1)
  • Dustin Johnson (25/1)
  • Brooks Koepka (33/1)
  • Corey Conners (40/1)
  • Shane Lowry (66/1)
  • Keith Mitchell (125/1)
  • Keegan Bradley (150/1)
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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

11 Comments

11 Comments

  1. Pingback: Is this the real reason behind Bryson DeChambeau’s total loss of form? – GolfWRX

  2. jamho3

    Apr 7, 2023 at 9:54 pm

    @Rich I may not LOVE your cowboys, but this and your rule of 12 vid are spectacular. #respect

  3. NMBob

    Apr 5, 2023 at 10:44 am

    Would not have just dropped Livs Reed, a green jacket holder, or Kokrak who finished T14 last year.

    • Rich Hunt

      Apr 5, 2023 at 11:32 am

      Unfortunately without any data it’s a guessing game. However, Reed has lost a ton of distance since his win and has been hitting the ball considerably lower. Kokrak hasn’t been playing well. That could be due to something like putting which isn’t as important at Augusta as people think as many past Masters champions were putting poorly the year they won.

  4. Boaty McBoatface

    Apr 5, 2023 at 10:34 am

    PReed has been consistently playing solid all year, without fail. He just keeps making boatloads of birdies, so you’re wrong to leave him out. And he’s a past champion, and he plays mostly a draw, and he can control his ball flight really well, which is what you need at Augusta.

  5. JJM1112

    Apr 5, 2023 at 10:31 am

    I look forward to this article each year, love the rationale. Curious where the green zone/red zone data is from. Looking at PGATour.com, Morikawa is 8th from 175-200 yards and 9th from 200-225. Not sure how that gets him to 43rd in red zone in the article but seems to be better than that to me.

    • Rich Hunt

      Apr 5, 2023 at 11:34 am

      1. Red Zone play includes proximity to the cup.
      2. It also includes shots from the rough
      3. It’s also adjusted for schedule

  6. Masters ?

    Apr 5, 2023 at 9:45 am

    How do you not have Xander filtered out for hitting it too low? Look at his “tournament only” performance for apex height. He’s significantly low ball flight lower than the rest of the field. Not a single one of the designated events was he anything less than in the red and lower.

    • Rich Hunt

      Apr 5, 2023 at 11:40 am

      His Max Height with the driver is adjusted for schedule (players hit it higher or lower on average depending on the course) is at 119th, just high enough. While Tour pros tend to hit all of their clubs the same height, I also went on Tracker2 and looked at Trackman data for Max Height on par-3’s and Xander ranks 100th out of 208 golfers. The other metrics like launch and hang time were enough to have Xander pass thru the filter by a narrow margin.

      • Masters ?

        Apr 6, 2023 at 11:55 am

        Where do you get Tracker2 and Trackman data from? Is there a link to where you view each player?

  7. Masters ?

    Apr 5, 2023 at 9:43 am

    How do you not have Xander filtered out for hitting it too low? Look at his “tournament only” performance for apex height. He’s significantly low ball flight lower than the rest of the field. Not a single one of the designated events was he anything less than in the red and lower.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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