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The best bets for the 2023 Magical Kenya Open

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It is a shame that the DP World Tour returns opposite The Players Championship, for the Magical Kenya Open deserves more than the scant attention it will receive this week.

During the early days of the event, Muthaiga Golf Club held the vast majority of events before sharing duties with near neighbour Karen GC, with both courses sharing a similar trend of solid iron play from players thriving at the likes of Crans, Joburg and Valderrama, though this week’s host is fancied to be the tighter of the two.

Certainly a look at recent winners finds the names Aaron Rai, Lorenzo Gagli and Ashun Wu pushing us well away from driving and more to what happens from the approach to the ball dropping – be tidy, hit the greens and give yourself a chance – and scores of level-4s (16-under total) should be right there come Sunday night.

Best Bet – Adri Arnaus 

There is an awful lot of dead wood in this event, meaning less than a third of the field can be truly fancied to win.

In Arnaus, we have a player that has the right form coming into this event, having recorded one victory and seven top-10s since the start of the 2022 season, the victory coming from well off-the-pace at his home Catalunya Championship to win a play-off against subsequent Di-Data champion Oliver Bekker, a player with a brace of top-10s and top-20s from five starts at Muthaiga.

That sole DPWT victory came six weeks after a run of form of 3rd at Saudi where he led at halfway, 9th at Ras Al Khaimah (led into Sunday), a fast-finishing 8th around here (a third-round 71 ruining his chance) and a loss in a three-way playoff at Pecanwood.

If that ‘area’ form isn’t enough, the correlative form does it for me.

Joburg has offered little in two starts, but better are two top-10 finishes from three starts at Crans, and a tied runner-up (with Jon Rahm) in a high-class Andalucía Masters.

I’ll take the runner-up behind Guido Migliozzi at Karen in 2019, especially as he finished tied with Justin Harding, who won a year later and should have gone back-to-back after leading the Savannah Classic for three rounds.

After finishing 2022 with a top-10 at the DP World Tour Championship, the 28-year-old has made two cuts from four starts this year. The missed weekends are easy to forgive, with Aby being his first outing in two months, whilst the latest in Singapore was his first sighting of a rarely used track.

In between, Arnaus was in fourth place at the third round stage of the Dubai Desert Classic before finishing 13th, form that links him with last year’s winner Asun Wu and 2018 champ Lorenzo Gagli, and 6th at Ras Al Khaimah.

That’s enough already to believe he repeats form at tracks, and he can follow compatriots Seve Ballesteros and Jose Maria Canizares into the winners’ circle.

Dangers – Jorge Campillo, Shubhankar Sharma and Marcus Kinhult

Another Arnaus countryman up next in Campillo, who bounced back to form with a fourth place at the Indian Open at the end of February and may go on one of his mercurial runs. He’s Spanish,what else is he going to be?

Clearly at home when it’s a test of quality ball control, his victories in Morocco and Qatar read well, particularly as last year’s winner of the latter, Ewen Ferguson, was clear here before fading late on. His runner-up at the Maybank, one of two top five finishes, splits Shubhankar Sharma (13th here, in 2022) and a similar player in Pablo Larrazabal, whilst one of 2022’s better efforts was a top five finish at Crans, backed up with a top-10 at the Marco Simone, scene of this year’s Ryder Cup.

The 36-year-old is, of course, a long way from making the European team, but this clearly nowhere near that standard and he can build on his two outings at Muthaiga, a 30th on debut followed by last season’s 13th place, when five straight birdies on ‘Moving Day’ shot him up from 27th to fourth place at halfway.

 

Sharma became a tempting wager as soon as I started looking deeper into Campillo, being very much in the Aaron Rai mould (2017 version), and who’s fast-finishing 13th in his home Open backs up a recent 12th at the Saudi International and a seasonal opening 7th in Abu Dhabi.

Previous to that, the 26-year-old had finished in the top three at the tough Gary Player course, starting a mini-run of top-20 rankings for approaches.

His win in Malaysia is covered above, and his only other main tour victory, at the Joburg Open, came via a three shot margin over Erik Van Rooyen, himself runner-up in Joburg, Qatar and Morocco.

There are certain players that come to mind when thinking of short, tree-lined courses and the tidy Indian star is always one.

Marcus Kinhult, the same age as Sharma, has a reputation that has, so far, been greater than his accomplishments on the main stage.

A star amateur, he finished 3rd in his debut at the Qatar Masters, subsequently followed by a seventh and third place at each of the two used courses, and finished top five at Le Golf National, another testing course that is affected by wind.

He finally got over the line at Hillside in 2019, before shooting the best round of the Sunday at the 2019 U.S Open at Pebble Beach. A year later and he banked top-10 finishes in the Scottish Open and at Wentworth, quality back-ups to the Qatar effort.

Recovering from a spell of epilepsy,the Swede returned to the course and dropped down a level to finish ninth and first in a pair of Nordic League events, before going on a run of 8th here and 3rd at Qatar.

The top-10 around this course in 2022 disguises his chance after day three, when only Ferguson was in front of him, but he has since proved he is strong in a finish at Hillside (15th to third) Valderrama (101st after day one, finished 6th) and 8th at the Dubai Desert Classic.

Although he missed the weekend in Singapore and on his first return to the NGL, Kinhult has since finished 11th and 8th on the development level. That is nothing special but certainly looks a very similar approach to his 2022 season, and he looks as if he can continue a progressive course profile of 12th and 8th, even if they are five years apart.

Outsider – Daniel Van Tonder

Selecting Daniel, previously Danie and maybe Dani, is a mainly price-based exercise, but there are legitimate reasons for thinking he is a big price at 80/1 and over.

The 31-year-old is a winner of seven events from 2019 to 2021, including a spell of four wins between August and October 2021. Most of the victories came on his home Sunshine Tour, and included his home Open, beating Oliver Bekker and the likes of 2021 Kenya Open winner Harding.

DVT finally crossed the line at the higher level when taking advantage of Harding’s collapse during the final round of the Savannah Classic, an effort that is under-valued despite his tap-in birdie at the last, and with a card littered with Joburg and Tshwane form-lines, it’s easy to work out where Van Tonder does his best work.

After four events away from home, and now returning to Kenya and South Africa for the next few weeks, expect the style of play that ranked him top five for approaches and tee-to-green in his two S.A events before the turn of the year.

Recommended Bets:

  • Adri Arnaus – WIN 
  • Jorge Campillo – WIN/TOP-5
  • Shubhankar Sharma – WIN/TOP-5
  • Marcus Kinhult – WIN/TOP-5
  • Daniel Van Tonder – WIN/TOP-10
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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