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The best bets for the 2023 Players Championship

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In almost a month to the day, the golfing world celebrates the start of The Masters.

Traditionally, this is the week when the hype really ramps up, with The Players Championship being the first sighting of a top-class full field. That has changed, of course, with the introduction of the PGA Tour’s elevated events, a series of lucrative tournaments that have managed to tempt those that previously might have felt like a week off.

Since January, there have been four such tournaments with season-long contenders for the world number one slot winning three.

Jon Rahm won the opening Tournament of Champions and the Genesis, whilst Scottie Scheffler defended his Phoenix Open crown. Yes, Kurt Kitayama won the most recent – the Arnold Palmer Invitational – but he had to hold a host of challengers, including Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth amongst others. When the best are present, it takes an almighty effort to beat them.

Such are the financial rewards (let’s park ‘legacy’ for the moment), players can no longer aim themselves at Augusta week and need to be ready weeks before. And that’s what makes this week’s ‘fifth’ major so fascinating given we have seen many of the best show their hand.

To the event itself, and Sawgrass never fails to enthrall. Indeed, with the constant that is Pete Dye’s feature track, it has far more in common with Augusta than just quality of field.

Sawgrass asks players to find the right part of the fairway, to have their irons on point and to scramble like a demon should they miss the dancefloor.

At under 7200-yards, there are lessons for all designers that want to make a challenging course that doesn’t succumb to bombers, although distance can never hurt. Certainly it can be said to have aided the three winners since the event moved to a windier and wetter March, the trio averaging 14th for driving distance.

Overwhelmingly, though, this is a second shot course.

The last two champions Cam Smith and Justin Thomas ranked fifth for strokes-gained approach, whilst McIlroy was listed as just one place behind those in sixth.

Indeed, it is Rory that gives the best clue to this event after the move in month and the change in greens:

“So just to be a little more aggressive, get a shorter club in your hand, and even when you are aggressive and you miss, it’s a touch easier to get yourself back into position. The rough isn’t as long or as gnarly. You’re running into that pine straw and you still have some sort of a shot and some control of your ball. And then when you miss the greens, you’re not having to contend with that Bermuda, you’re not having to guess, how is this going to come out, whatever. So it lends itself to more aggressive play. I don’t know if the course is easier or not. We’ll see what the stroke average is at the end of the day. But because I think it’s playing longer, it’ll play longer for most of the guys, and I think it should all even out. But I definitely like the golf course the way it is in March.”

Best bet – Viktor Hovland

Current joint-favourite Rory McIlroy makes far more appeal than Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler from the top of the market.

The Irishman could easily have won at Bay Hill on Sunday, a final hole putt going close enough to give his fans a shout. That would have made it three wins in his last six events, and having won here in 2019, and ranking top-10 for tee-to-green in almost every event since time began, he looks a lot more solid that world number one Rahm, who has to put a poor Bay Hill behind him.

The Spaniard was going for his sixth win in ten starts and after an opening 65, looked very much the one to beat. His fade away to 39th, plus moderate course form is enough to give him the elbow at single figures.

Scheffler also just missed out at the Arnold Palmer, his birdie putt on 17 giving the hole a look as it went by, and maybe affecting his play on 18. He looks unflappable in the most part but will need to overcome last season’s 55th place finish, surprising given he went into Sawgrass off a run of 1/7/1, and won back-to-back straight after, including at the Dye-designed Austin CC.

‘NOOOO’ shout the masses as the name Viktor Hovland is put up this week, but I reckon this is the time he steps up in similar fashion to Cam Smith.

Buoyed by the likes of Keegan Bradley (in seventh and fifth in his last four starts here) and even Russell Knox (two life-time top-20s here and sixth last year) this course rewards quality ball-strikers. Those, amongst others,  show that even those with frailties on the greens can do something here, and the 25-year-old Norwegian is a perfect fit.

Of course, there is nothing wrong with the Norwegian’s game from tee-to-green, ranking an average of 5th for driving since Pebble Beach, and 25th for ball-striking over the last three months. The issue is clearly with the short game and it’s one that many cannot overlook, but I’m happy enough to take the chance at the price, for a contender for a place amongst the elite.

Despite ranking down the bottom for his short game – particularly during rounds one and two – Hovland was beaten just four shots by Kitayama, a player that found more than his A1 game from tee to green. Given that, and his efforts in top-class PGA Tour competition, and I’m happy to be the outlier.

Twice winner at Mayakoba, where finding the fairway is a big advantage, and also at the Hero World Challenge – knockabout, maybe, but much of the world’s best were behind – he brings in a runner-up at Bay Hill in 2022 to go alongside Sunday’s top-10, top-five finishes at Riviera and a fourth place at Sedgefield where half-a-dozen Players champions have also won.

Pete Dye form is scant but Hovland has an 11th at River Highlands in his second of two starts there, and was top-30 when the USPGA was held at Kiawah Island.

In two outings here, the Norwegian star missed the cut on debut before finishing in the top 10 last year, leading the field in tee-to-green. Sure, his short game cost him nearly six shots of the 14 he made but he’s just a good chip short of being back in the world’s top-10. He can start here.

Max Homa is a player that, for some reason, seems easy to read. Classic, shot-makers tracks suit, and with an ability to grind out pars, the 32-year-old can confirm his startling improvement by contending here, but I felt he was also worth serious consideration for Augusta, for which he is currently 10 points bigger.

Equally, in their own way Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, and Tony Finau must have claims should everything click for four days, but it’s tough to choose between them.

Dangers – Sahith Theegala and Sam Burns 

Instead, I’m leaving that illustrious group and taking a chance that Sam Burns comes alive again in Florida.

Winning here after two missed-cuts would be unusual, but his price has drifted to a big enough number to take the chance that this two-time winner of the Valspar Championship can also repeat an admirable effort of just 12 months ago.

Innisbrook clearly suits the 26-year-old, who beat Keegan Bradley (two top-10s here) to his first Valspar, whilst, before his ownback-to-back efforts, Paul Casey (3rd and 5th at Sawgrass) did the same, beating Jason Kokrak (top-10 2021) and Louis Oosthuizen (runner-up), and Patrick Reed and Tiger Woods (twice Players champion).

Burns has never really taken to Bay Hill, a ninth place the definite highlight from a handful of outings, but he was 26th here last year on his second event outing, leading at halfway after an opening 68/69, and finding the putter his best club.

Two weekends off look poor, but a glance back just a month ago sees Burns finish a fast-finishing sixth at Phoenix and 11th at the American Express, where rounds of 64 (twice) make his current performance hard to fathom.

Burns is playing around with drivers at the moment, but as a long-term member of the top-20 club for all-round driving, he will figure it out, and, at the price offered,  it’s worth taking the chance it will be this week.

This will be a tough event for a maiden to win so, even if might be ‘unofficial’, Sahith Theegala‘s victory at the team QBE Shootout gives some backing to his chance.

The 25-year-old college superstar should have been at home with at least one trophy before his win in Naples (Florida) having led both the 2021 Fortinet Championship and last season’s Phoenix Open well into the finishing straight.

Both those efforts showed an understandable naivety in his game, but he showed he belonged at the top with a 13/15/28 finish at the big-money FedEx Cup events.

Since then, apart from the victory alongside Tom Hoge, the Pepperdine graduate has made 11 from 12 cuts, including finishing in sixth place back at the Fortinet, a fast-closing fifth and second at the Zozo and RSM respectively, fourth at Torrey Pines, sixth at Riviera and last week’s 14th at Bay Hill.

The latest result sits nicely with a seventh at Valspar, his ranking of 30th for greens over the last three months, top-10 for par-4s over the same period, and a solid pair of top-five listings for irons and tee-to-green at both the Farmers and Genesis.

With the likes of Homa now established away from the bunch, we are looking for the next star to shine, and Theegala, reminding me of the early days of Rickie Fowler with his confident short game, could very well be the one.

2023 Players Championship Recommended Bets:

  • Viktor Hovland – WIN/T5
  • Sahith Theegala – WIN/T10
  • Sam Burns – WIN/T10/T20
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  1. P

    Mar 7, 2023 at 10:44 am

    No Rickie? He’s won here before, and he’s been doing better recently. Rahm can’t handle the Florida winds

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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