Opinion & Analysis

The best bets for the 2023 Players Championship

Published

1 year ago

Mar 7, 2023

In almost a month to the day, the golfing world celebrates the start of The Masters.

Traditionally, this is the week when the hype really ramps up, with The Players Championship being the first sighting of a top-class full field. That has changed, of course, with the introduction of the PGA Tour’s elevated events, a series of lucrative tournaments that have managed to tempt those that previously might have felt like a week off.

Since January, there have been four such tournaments with season-long contenders for the world number one slot winning three.

Jon Rahm won the opening Tournament of Champions and the Genesis, whilst Scottie Scheffler defended his Phoenix Open crown. Yes, Kurt Kitayama won the most recent – the Arnold Palmer Invitational – but he had to hold a host of challengers, including Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth amongst others. When the best are present, it takes an almighty effort to beat them.

Such are the financial rewards (let’s park ‘legacy’ for the moment), players can no longer aim themselves at Augusta week and need to be ready weeks before. And that’s what makes this week’s ‘fifth’ major so fascinating given we have seen many of the best show their hand.

To the event itself, and Sawgrass never fails to enthrall. Indeed, with the constant that is Pete Dye’s feature track, it has far more in common with Augusta than just quality of field.

Sawgrass asks players to find the right part of the fairway, to have their irons on point and to scramble like a demon should they miss the dancefloor.

At under 7200-yards, there are lessons for all designers that want to make a challenging course that doesn’t succumb to bombers, although distance can never hurt. Certainly it can be said to have aided the three winners since the event moved to a windier and wetter March, the trio averaging 14th for driving distance.

Overwhelmingly, though, this is a second shot course.

The last two champions Cam Smith and Justin Thomas ranked fifth for strokes-gained approach, whilst McIlroy was listed as just one place behind those in sixth.

Indeed, it is Rory that gives the best clue to this event after the move in month and the change in greens:

“So just to be a little more aggressive, get a shorter club in your hand, and even when you are aggressive and you miss, it’s a touch easier to get yourself back into position. The rough isn’t as long or as gnarly. You’re running into that pine straw and you still have some sort of a shot and some control of your ball. And then when you miss the greens, you’re not having to contend with that Bermuda, you’re not having to guess, how is this going to come out, whatever. So it lends itself to more aggressive play. I don’t know if the course is easier or not. We’ll see what the stroke average is at the end of the day. But because I think it’s playing longer, it’ll play longer for most of the guys, and I think it should all even out. But I definitely like the golf course the way it is in March.”

Best bet – Viktor Hovland

Current joint-favourite Rory McIlroy makes far more appeal than Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler from the top of the market.

The Irishman could easily have won at Bay Hill on Sunday, a final hole putt going close enough to give his fans a shout. That would have made it three wins in his last six events, and having won here in 2019, and ranking top-10 for tee-to-green in almost every event since time began, he looks a lot more solid that world number one Rahm, who has to put a poor Bay Hill behind him.

The Spaniard was going for his sixth win in ten starts and after an opening 65, looked very much the one to beat. His fade away to 39th, plus moderate course form is enough to give him the elbow at single figures.

Scheffler also just missed out at the Arnold Palmer, his birdie putt on 17 giving the hole a look as it went by, and maybe affecting his play on 18. He looks unflappable in the most part but will need to overcome last season’s 55th place finish, surprising given he went into Sawgrass off a run of 1/7/1, and won back-to-back straight after, including at the Dye-designed Austin CC.

‘NOOOO’ shout the masses as the name Viktor Hovland is put up this week, but I reckon this is the time he steps up in similar fashion to Cam Smith.

Buoyed by the likes of Keegan Bradley (in seventh and fifth in his last four starts here) and even Russell Knox (two life-time top-20s here and sixth last year) this course rewards quality ball-strikers. Those, amongst others, show that even those with frailties on the greens can do something here, and the 25-year-old Norwegian is a perfect fit.

Of course, there is nothing wrong with the Norwegian’s game from tee-to-green, ranking an average of 5th for driving since Pebble Beach, and 25th for ball-striking over the last three months. The issue is clearly with the short game and it’s one that many cannot overlook, but I’m happy enough to take the chance at the price, for a contender for a place amongst the elite.

Despite ranking down the bottom for his short game – particularly during rounds one and two – Hovland was beaten just four shots by Kitayama, a player that found more than his A1 game from tee to green. Given that, and his efforts in top-class PGA Tour competition, and I’m happy to be the outlier.

Twice winner at Mayakoba, where finding the fairway is a big advantage, and also at the Hero World Challenge – knockabout, maybe, but much of the world’s best were behind – he brings in a runner-up at Bay Hill in 2022 to go alongside Sunday’s top-10, top-five finishes at Riviera and a fourth place at Sedgefield where half-a-dozen Players champions have also won.

Pete Dye form is scant but Hovland has an 11th at River Highlands in his second of two starts there, and was top-30 when the USPGA was held at Kiawah Island.

In two outings here, the Norwegian star missed the cut on debut before finishing in the top 10 last year, leading the field in tee-to-green. Sure, his short game cost him nearly six shots of the 14 he made but he’s just a good chip short of being back in the world’s top-10. He can start here.

Max Homa is a player that, for some reason, seems easy to read. Classic, shot-makers tracks suit, and with an ability to grind out pars, the 32-year-old can confirm his startling improvement by contending here, but I felt he was also worth serious consideration for Augusta, for which he is currently 10 points bigger.

Equally, in their own way Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, and Tony Finau must have claims should everything click for four days, but it’s tough to choose between them.

Dangers – Sahith Theegala and Sam Burns

Instead, I’m leaving that illustrious group and taking a chance that Sam Burns comes alive again in Florida.

Winning here after two missed-cuts would be unusual, but his price has drifted to a big enough number to take the chance that this two-time winner of the Valspar Championship can also repeat an admirable effort of just 12 months ago.

Innisbrook clearly suits the 26-year-old, who beat Keegan Bradley (two top-10s here) to his first Valspar, whilst, before his ownback-to-back efforts, Paul Casey (3rd and 5th at Sawgrass) did the same, beating Jason Kokrak (top-10 2021) and Louis Oosthuizen (runner-up), and Patrick Reed and Tiger Woods (twice Players champion).

Burns has never really taken to Bay Hill, a ninth place the definite highlight from a handful of outings, but he was 26th here last year on his second event outing, leading at halfway after an opening 68/69, and finding the putter his best club.

Two weekends off look poor, but a glance back just a month ago sees Burns finish a fast-finishing sixth at Phoenix and 11th at the American Express, where rounds of 64 (twice) make his current performance hard to fathom.

Burns is playing around with drivers at the moment, but as a long-term member of the top-20 club for all-round driving, he will figure it out, and, at the price offered, it’s worth taking the chance it will be this week.

This will be a tough event for a maiden to win so, even if might be ‘unofficial’, Sahith Theegala‘s victory at the team QBE Shootout gives some backing to his chance.

The 25-year-old college superstar should have been at home with at least one trophy before his win in Naples (Florida) having led both the 2021 Fortinet Championship and last season’s Phoenix Open well into the finishing straight.

Both those efforts showed an understandable naivety in his game, but he showed he belonged at the top with a 13/15/28 finish at the big-money FedEx Cup events.

Since then, apart from the victory alongside Tom Hoge, the Pepperdine graduate has made 11 from 12 cuts, including finishing in sixth place back at the Fortinet, a fast-closing fifth and second at the Zozo and RSM respectively, fourth at Torrey Pines, sixth at Riviera and last week’s 14th at Bay Hill.

The latest result sits nicely with a seventh at Valspar, his ranking of 30th for greens over the last three months, top-10 for par-4s over the same period, and a solid pair of top-five listings for irons and tee-to-green at both the Farmers and Genesis.

With the likes of Homa now established away from the bunch, we are looking for the next star to shine, and Theegala, reminding me of the early days of Rickie Fowler with his confident short game, could very well be the one.

2023 Players Championship Recommended Bets:

Viktor Hovland – WIN/T5
Sahith Theegala – WIN/T10
Sam Burns – WIN/T10/T20

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

2 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

Published

2 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Brendan Ryan

In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

1 week ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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