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Tour Rundown: Kirk survives 72nd-hole snafu | Vu claims inaugural tour title in Thailand
Last spring, I was fortunate to play the PGA National Championship course that hosts this week’s Honda Classic, on the PGA Tour. It’s beautiful, challenging, interesting, and never, ever, easy. That’s no big reveal for any of this week’s competitors, but it’s always an awakening for the amateur golfer who wonders just how difficult it can be. Every other playing surface in sport is standardized; it’s the human opponents that make the game professional. In golf, it’s not just the opposition, but the extreme demands of the tour-quality, championship course. Here’s hoping that this course continues to feature on the PGA Tour, for years to come.
The Putt That Didn’t Win
It’s a cruel game.
Eric Cole’s birdie putt to force another playoff hole just lips out @TheHondaClassic. pic.twitter.com/BV3UlczB5I
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 26, 2023
It was a light week for legitimate professional events, as February eases into March. We all know what’s coming in the third month of 2023, but this final week of tournaments left us much to remember. Let’s do our weekly Tour Rundown in three, two, one, and GO!
PGA Tour: Kirk survives 72nd hole snafu to claim fifth tour title
You wouldn’t be alone if you asked Chris Kirk why he hit three-metal into the 18th hole in regulation. His answer might run along the lines of I can draw that club whenever I want or There was plenty of room left. No matter the response, the ball didn’t draw and finished its time in golf in Davy Jones locker. The ensuing bogey dropped the leader into a tie with Eric Cole, and the duo returned to the par-five’s tee for some overtime.
Eric Cole was beyond thrilled to be in this position. His 2022-2023 campaign been solid, with seven made cut in 14 events. Before Sunday, he had $363K in the FedEx Cup bank, and was looking to add to that figure in Florida. His bookend rounds of 67-66-66-67 brought him farther along than he had dreamed. Despite the missed birdie putt on playoff hole one (see above) Cole earned over $900K for his runner-up finish. Many boxes are now checked for the 34-year old journeyman, and perhaps it’s time to win.
As for Chris Kirk, the 73rd-hole birdie was the culmination of eight years of the grind. His fourth victory came at Colonial in 2015. It took him twice as many years to earn the next one. There were close calls along the way, but Honda 2023 will be remembered for his electric 62 on Friday, and his legal but inconceivable free drop on Saturday. Cheers to another win for the Knoxville native.
GOLF SHOT.@Chris_Kirk_ nearly holes out for eagle and will have a tap-in birdie @TheHondaClassic.
Eric Cole will have to get up-and-down from a green side bunker to force another playoff hole. pic.twitter.com/46OSaUhL9M
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 26, 2023
LPGA: Vu claims inaugural tour title in Thailand
Lilia Vu was as decorated as they come, when she emerged from the amateur ranks to test the professional waters. Unfortunately for her, she turned pro as the golf world began to navigate the worldwide pandemic. A limited number of LPGA starts in 2019 took her to the Symetra Tour for the next two years. She won three times in the minors in 2021, earning herself a promotion to the big tour for 2022.
2023 has commenced with great promise for the young Californian. Imagine being in the mix for a title with Lydia Ko, Jin Young Ko, Maja Stark, Atthaya Thitikul, and a young golfer from the host country who didn’t know that she wasn’t supposed to do these things. That’s what Vu was up against, and that’s what she overcame. Natthakritta Vongtaveelap had blitzed the Chonburi course with 67-65-64. As it turned out, another round in the 60s would have done the deed, but Sunday’s front nine was an adventure for the young Thai. NatVong made one par on her way to the turn. Four birdies, three bogies and a double added up to some shots lost to Vu, who parlayed four birdies into a five-shot swing.
On the inward half, Vu was just as resolute. Four more birdies against zero bogies gave her 64 on the day. Vongtaveelap made three birdies of her own coming home, but a bogey at the 11th, and a run of four pars to close, kept her inches away from matching Vu. With an life-changing birdie at the drivable 15th, Vu reached 22-deep and locked the door on her first LPGA victory.
Clutch par putt by @TheLiliaVu on 17 to maintain her lead by 1! ?
Watch the finish of the @hondalpgath on @GolfChannel! pic.twitter.com/DOR87xqDjw
— LPGA (@LPGA) February 26, 2023
DP World Tour: German pair battles to end at Delhi
Yanik Paul has played the best golf of his life over the last fortnight. The 28-year old from Frankfurt finished runner-up last week in Thailand, and held the 36-hole lead this week in India. Had Paul preserved a semblance of his two-day form, he might have earned a four-shot win as Olesen did last week. Instead, Paul went into grinder mode on the weekend, and closed with 71-70. This allowed countryman Marcel Siem to enter the picture.
Siem with 69-70, but closed with the all-important 67-68, making up a number of shots on the leader. Paul’s sole tour win came last October in a playoff, but Siem counted four titles to his credit, over a near-twenty year career. When your last win came in 2014, however, you might forget the feeling. Siem was gutsy all day. He posted four birdies through twelve holes on Sunday, then recovered a lost stroke at 13, with a critical birdie at 15.
Yannik Paul did nothing wrong on day four, but not enough right came his way. His two birdies on the day accompanied 16 pars, and left him one shot shy of his older countryman. Some years ago, Siem converted to the long putter, emulating the great German champion, Bernhard Langer. At the age of 42, Marcel Siem had his fifth DP World Tour title, and a new lease on his career.
The moment Marcel Siem claimed his fifth DP World Tour victory ?#HIO2023 pic.twitter.com/38YDXRw4u7
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) February 26, 2023
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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board
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