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2022 RSM Classic: Betting Tips & Selections

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This was supposed to be around 600 words why Tony Finau was going to win back-to-back for the second time in five months. Sadly, with Tuesday’s withdrawal, not only has the best value in the field gone awol, but the RSM Classic reverts to its status as the bizarre end-of-season chance for a lesser name to win.

While the DP World Tour ends its season at the end of the year, Sea Island Golf Club hosts the ninth event of the ‘new’ 2022/2023, before two novelty events take us through to the new year.

Coastal but gettable, the mix of the Seaside and Plantation courses pray for the wind to make any barrier to good scoring, but despite the potential disasters, winning scores over the past five years average 20-under.

2017 winner Austin Cook said that there is a big plus for players with previous looks at the courses, while Scott Brown and Webb Simpson disagree on the new, undulating greens – the former stating that if you get on the wrong side of the green, “it’s a tough two putt“, whilst two-time runner-up, Simpson, says that with the slopes, ” you can really use those slopes to help you and get the ball in the hole.”

The same thing, but different.

With ‘Big Tone’ out, this becomes an unappealing tournament to bet on. However, with winners Chris Kirk, Kevin Kisner, Mackenzie Hughes and Talor Gooch (along with Simpson) showing a bit at various Open Championships, there is a clear link between coastal conditions around the globe.

This now becomes a much easier event for the likes of in-form Seamus Power and Brian Harman to win.

The latter has made 11 of his last 12 cuts (since July), finishing in the top-20 at the lucrative and elite Tour Championship before a run of 15th, 23rd and latterly, running-up to a rampant Russell Henley in Mexico.

The only issue I have with the local 35-year-old is the lack of an individual victory over the last five years, but with a recent Open record of 19th and then tied-sixth, his claims are there to see.

Power also has decent claims after playing the best golf of his career.

Always well regarded, it took a spell at the lower level for him to find his game, but

There were periods during ‘Lockdown’ and soon after, when he seemed unfazed by the sport, mentioning it was good living and not particularly focussed on the trophies.

That seems to have changed now, and after winning the 2021 Barbasol Championship, the Irishman has steadily climbed the rankings, his latest victory in Bermuda (significant for wind and greens) and third at the Mayakoba seeing him rise to 30th and available for all the major tournaments in 2023.

Power lost many strokes with his irons at the latter part of last season, but has clearly sorted out the issue. With no strokes-gained data available at either Mayakoba or Bermuda, the old-fashioned numbers report him ranking 9th and first for greens-in-regulation. With that quality putting on Bermuda greens a tremendous bonus, he has to go close, and further any claims he has to a place at the 2023 Ryder Cup.

Back up Power with Joel Dahmen, another in-form golfer and winner of the coastal Corales Puntacana Championship in 2021.

There was a period during Lockdown when the 35-year-old seemed more interested in being a social media personality than a competitive golfer at the highest level. That has changed, with his 10th at the U.S Open a sign of what was possible.

Fans have had to wait a while, but in five outings since the turn of October, Dahmen has made all five cuts, with two top-20 finishes improved upon with a bronze medal in Mexico and a place on the front page in last week’s Finau rout.

These finishes could have been even better. Going into Sunday, Dahmen was 11th at the Sanderson Farms – Mackenzie Hughes has won the RSM and in Mississippi – 8th at the Zozo, and 6th in Houston, all numbers that must see him go close here.

Hit fairways and greens and you’ll compete here, and over the past three months Dahmen ranks 10th for driving accuracy, 29th for greens-in-regulation, 20th for scrambling and 26th for putting average. With the hot favourite our, he is a genuine 20-1 shot.

Aaron Rai is a proven wind player. So much so, that like compatriot Tommy Fleetwood, if you back him you want it to blow, with rain another positive.

Still, he is the consummate tee-to-green player, and with every indication in last weekend’s 7th place that he is ready to match his top-10 finishes at Torrey Pines, and top-15s in Canada and at the Mayakoba.

The 27-year-old gives away distance off the tee but, in turn, has led the driving accuracy lists on four occasions this year, perfect if the gusts do arrive. Hopefully, that facet allows him the freedom to have one of his better weeks with his irons – he flits wildly between very good and awful – and then uses his excellent putting to do a job.

Top-12 in strokes-gained-putting at The Memorial, Irish Open, Sanderson Farms and last week in Houston, he can take encouragement from a 16th placed finish on debut last year, when he struck four almost-equal rounds of 66/67/68/68. He is 5/2 to repeat that finish.

We are now in the land of the fantasy – or were. Now the event has opened up, I’ll take a chance with a couple of bigger prices for top-10 and top-20 finishes.

First-season PGA Tour player Ben Griffin is just one of a host of KFT graduates that could be anything over the next few years.

The Sea Island field contains more obvious candidates in the shape of Taylor Montgomery, with three top-10s and two top 15s in just six starts as a full PGA Tour player, as well as the Davis’ – Riley and Thompson  – but the 26-year-old can oust the lot after being another to open his full top-level career with a series of impressive results.

After winning on the PGA Tour Canada in 2018, the North Carolina graduate lost his way and worked as a loan officer through 2021, still securing his PGA card via a 15th place on the Korn Ferry Tour standings.

While Griffin was making his way up the table, he finished 4th at the Wyndham, courtesy of a final round 64, before three successive missed-cuts back at the lower level.

After a further weekend off at his first full PGA event, at the Fortinet, Griffin showed much more at the Country Club of Jackson, lying in 10th at halfway before finishing a respectable 24th. He continued his run through the Shriners, when just outside of the top-30 going into Sunday, before three rounds of 65/64/66 saw him lead the Bermuda Championship.

Payday was going well until the 66th hole of the tournament, when an error on the green led to a series of mistakes that caused a 6-over back-nine.

Griffin admits he had a plan, but “got a little too comfortable”, and the episode understandably contributed to his worst performance of this brief spell – in Mexico.

However, Griffin is going nowhere, and his improved 16th in Houston last week (8th at halfway) was the sign of a player confident in his ability.

Having once had his qualifier fee paid by members of his local club, Griffin knows the value of work and whilst his overall figures are nothing more than steady, his numbers for many of the first three rounds are significantly better, even if hidden.

Ignore the missed-cut here in 2018, it seems of no relevance to this week, and look at his 18 holes played at Sea Island Plantation Course in July – a 59!

https://www.instagram.com/p/CfzaB2qOn8v/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Trey Mullinax is far more exposed than the likes of Griffin, but this seems a great opportunity to show up again, as he did when winning the Barbasol Championship in July.

Since his latest victory, his first since 2020, the 30-year-old has finished just outside the top-20 at St. Andrews, 5th at St. Jude, 12th at the limited-field BMW and in the top five last week in Houston.

Solid in most aspects of his game, Mullinax has ranked in the top-15 for putting in ficve of his last seven outings, finding at least five strokes on the field in those, with a gain of over 10 shots last week, on the Bermuda grass of Memorial Park.

Two of his three key victories have come in 23 and 25-under the card, so we know he can go low. He is streaky but on a run, can putt on the grass he faces this week, and looks a terrific bit of value on all fronts.

Reccommended Bets:

  • Seamus Power Win/Top-5
  • Joel Dahmen Win/Top-5
  • Aaron Rai Win/Top-5 
  • Aaron Rai Top-20
  • Ben Griffin Top-20
  • Trey Mullinax Win/Top-5
  • Trey Mullinax Top-20
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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